Can we estimate cost of top-end Model 3 based on discontinuing of S60?

[ModelNforNerd]

Now that the Model S 60 is being discontinued:

is it a sign that the Model 3 is imminent?

and can we use that info to determine the cost of a loaded Model 3?






Now that the base Model S comes in at $76,500, does that give us a clue into the Model 3 pricing? Was the base "bumped up" to eliminate any potential price overlap between the 2 models? Or was this decision made based on the Model S alone, independent of Model 3?

 

[Bokonon]

Now that the base Model S comes in at $76,500, does that give us a clue into the Model 3 pricing? Was the base "bumped up" to eliminate any potential price overlap between the 2 models? Or was this decision made based on the Model S alone, independent of Model 3?

Along the same lines, I wonder: was this decision made in part to eliminate any potential range overlap between the two models? And, if so, could it reflect Tesla's confidence that the base Model 3's EPA range will significantly exceed the originally-announced baseline of 215 miles, and will therefore exceed the range of the 60 kWh Model 3? (Whether they've achieved this by abandoning the "base battery will be less than 60 kWh" assertion, and/or done it in order to make the base Model 3 more competitive with the Bolt, is beside the point.)

Put another way, instead of seeing a Model 3-versus-S comparison like this:

• Model 3: Starts at 240 miles of range for $35,000
• Model S: Starts at 218 miles of range for $71,300

...we might see something like this:

• Model 3: Starts at 240 miles of range for $35,000
• Model S: Starts at 249 miles of range for $77,800

... which paints the more expensive Model S in a much more flattering light.

 

[S3XY]

Along the same lines, I wonder: was this decision made in part to eliminate any potential range overlap between the two models? And, if so, could it reflect Tesla's confidence that the base Model 3's EPA range will significantly exceed the originally-announced baseline of 215 miles, and will therefore exceed the range of the 60 kWh Model 3? (Whether they've achieved this by abandoning the "base battery will be less than 60 kWh" assertion, and/or done it in order to make the base Model 3 more competitive with the Bolt, is beside the point.)

Put another way, instead of seeing a Model 3-versus-S comparison like this:

• Model 3: Starts at 240 miles of range for $35,000
• Model S: Starts at 218 miles of range for $71,300

...we might see something like this:

• Model 3: Starts at 240 miles of range for $35,000
• Model S: Starts at 249 miles of range for $77,800

... which paints the more expensive Model S in a much more flattering light.

And for another $42,800 you can get an additional 9 miles of range. Seriously though, your theory does make sense.

 

[Bokonon]

...and will therefore exceed the range of the 60 kWh Model 3?

EDIT: "60 kWh Model 3" should read "60 kWh Model S", in case that wasn't obvious. I guess the window for editing my own post expired...

 

[MIT_S60]

The Model 3 would likely have a starting range of 215 miles, thus the need to drop the S60 so that the entry S has more range than the entry 3. Also, we have no idea how the top end price point of the 3 looks like. At one point, you could price an S at $66k for the 60 up to something like $160k for P100DL with all the options. If the 3 has a similar spread, I wouldn't be surprised to see a top end 3 hit close to $100k.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

The Model 3 would likely have a starting range of 215 miles, thus the need to drop the S60 so that the entry S has more range than the entry 3. Also, we have no idea how the top end price point of the 3 looks like. At one point, you could price an S at $66k for the 60 up to something like $160k for P100DL with all the options. If the 3 has a similar spread, I wouldn't be surprised to see a top end 3 hit close to $100k.

But if we stay in line with a rough doubling of the base price, now there's room in the lineup for a ~$75k Model 3 XXD-L.

I'm thinking the elimination of the 60kWh S was a two pronged approach.

 

[Model 3]

is it a sign that the Model 3 is imminent?

and can we use that info to determine the cost of a loaded Model 3?

was this decision made in part to eliminate any potential range overlap between the two models?

No, no and no.

The TMS 60 was probably just reintroduced to try to get as many TM3 reservations holders over on TMS as possible, and now that the production of the TM3 is getting closer it has done it's job and is retired. I was expecting this from the moment I heard that it was brought back from the grave.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

No, no and no.

The TMS 60 was probably just reintroduced to try to get as many TM3 reservations holders over on TMS as possible, and now that the production of the TM3 is getting closer it has done it's job and is retired. I was expecting this from the moment I heard that it was brought back from the grave.

You contradicted yourself with one of your "No's".

"now that the production of the TM3 is getting closer" is pretty much the same as "the Model 3 is imminent".


But in the grand scheme of things, I'll stick by my assessment. The S60's job was to entice Model 3 owners to convert to a sale during the wait....well, they did that by offering a vehicle with similar range, functionality, and a (somewhat) similar price point as a well-optioned Model 3.

Now that the Model 3 is coming, the S60 is redundant in many ways. The main point of my post remains valid.

EDIT: The only thing that remains to be seen is the price of a fully loaded Model 3 XXD-L in relation to the Model S lineup.

 

[Model 3]

You contradicted yourself with one of your "No's".

"now that the production of the TM3 is getting closer" is pretty much the same as "the Model 3 is imminent".

The "No" was that we could use the fact that they discontinued the TMS60 to conclude that "the Model 3 is imminent". We know that the production is getting closer by the statements of Tesla/Elon. But I could, and I did, foreseeing that the TMS60 would be discontinued based on that we knew "that the production of the TM3 is getting closer". That is the opposite causality to what I answered. I'm no native English speaker, and I thought that "imminent" was not the same as "getting closer"? More like "Getting really really close"? Some thing I hope we can say in about June.

The S60's job was to entice Model 3 owners to convert to a sale during the wait....well, they did that by offering a vehicle with similar range, functionality, and a (somewhat) similar price point as a well-optioned Model 3.

We agree on the first part of this, but I will not extend the comparison to "range" and/or "functionality" and/or "similar price point". TMS60 had a lower cost then any other TMS (with the same options beside the battery alternative), and that is all the conclusion we can make at this time - TM3 will have a lower cost then any similar optioned TMS. I do not say "TM3 will have a very different range" or "a well equipped TM3 will not end up in the same price range that the basic TMS60 had" or anything like that, just that we can not make any conclusions based on the price, range or functionality of the base TMS 60.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

The "No" was that we could use the fact that they discontinued the TMS60 to conclude that "the Model 3 is imminent". We know that the production is getting closer by the statements of Tesla/Elon. But I could, and I did, foreseeing that the TMS60 would be discontinued based on that we knew "that the production of the TM3 is getting closer". That is the opposite causality to what I answered. I'm no native English speaker, and I thought that "imminent" was not the same as "getting closer"? More like "Getting really really close"? Some thing I hope we can say in about June.


We agree on the first part of this, but I will not extend the comparison to "range" and/or "functionality" and/or "similar price point". TMS60 had a lower cost then any other TMS (with the same options beside the battery alternative), and that is all the conclusion we can make at this time - TM3 will have a lower cost then any similar optioned TMS. I do not say "TM3 will have a very different range" or "a well equipped TM3 will not end up in the same price range that the basic TMS60 had" or anything like that, just that we can not make any conclusions based on the price, range or functionality of the base TMS 60.

Model S60 range = 218 miles. Stated Model 3 range = "at least 215 miles". HHmmmmm....

Functionality = many Model 3 res holders will be moving from their ICE to an EV for the first time. Plugging in a Model S60 will be the same as plugging in a Model 3, hence similar functionality. And that's not even considering the driving mechanics of one-pedal-driving.

I think from a business standpoint, my premise is extremely valid, for one simple reason:

To get a Model 3 at that price point, with that range, will result in a much better margin for Tesla than a Model S60 will, especially considering they were shipping them with software-locked 75 kWh packs, thus limiting their profit margin on vehicles that weren't upgraded to 75 kWh.

 

[dsvick]

Was the base "bumped up" to eliminate any potential price overlap between the 2 models?

Sort of, since I think it was only introduced to entice some model 3 reservations into a model S, discontinuing it does eliminate the price overlap, but only because they created it specifically for that reason. There will still be plenty of overlap once you start optioning the model 3.

I wonder: was this decision made in part to eliminate any potential range overlap between the two models?

No, I don't think so. Once you start adding larger batteries to the model 3 there will be plenty of range overlap anyway. And, there are plenty of other things to differentiate the model S from the 3 they aren't going to worry too much about range being one of them.

 

[Model 3]

Model S60 range = 218 miles. Stated Model 3 range = "at least 215 miles". HHmmmmm....

Yes, but you can not use that fact to conclude that TM3 will only have 218 miles EPA range. Or 220. It may, or it may not, but I may just as likely have 225 or 230. But you may say that the TMS60 got 218 miles EPA range as a consequence of the "at least 215 miles" promised to the TM3.

Plugging in a Model S60 will be the same as plugging in a Model 3

Just about as it is with any BEV, or at least any Tesla. Nothing special about the TMS 60 in this, as the topic is indicating and that I answered "No" to.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

Yes, but you can not use that fact to conclude that TM3 will only have 218 miles EPA range. Or 220. It may, or it may not, but I may just as likely have 225 or 230. But you may say that the TMS60 got 218 miles EPA range as a consequence of the "at least 215 miles" promised to the TM3.



Just about as it is with any BEV, or at least any Tesla. Nothing special about the TMS 60 in this, as the topic is indicating and that I answered "No" to.

Fair enough, Tesla ALMOST enticed me with a Model S60 for a few reasons, but unfortunately, other things in my life precluded me from dropping money on one.

We are in the middle of selling our home and buying another, so of course the banks have way more insight to my financial situation than I'm comfortable with.

So all of that cash I have saved up will sit and wait for my Model 3 to be ready.

 

[Sonny Daze]

If this had anything to do with the upcoming Model 3 release, why would they make this change so early? I don't see a reason to do this until they open the Model 3 design studio to the public, and I don't see that happening next month. I just think they weren't making enough money off of them.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

If this had anything to do with the upcoming Model 3 release, why would they make this change so early? I don't see a reason to do this until they open the Model 3 design studio to the public, and I don't see that happening next month. I just think they weren't making enough money off of them.

It likely has to do with a few things:

the margins on the 60 weren't that good, unless you went in later and unlocked the remaining 15kWh in the pack your car shipped with.

You can still order an S60 until mid-April.

If employees are going to start receiving their cars in July, they will likely be getting access to the Design Studio very close to mid-April or early May, in an attempt to ensure suppliers are ready to meet initial demands.

The rest of us? I think Day 1 res holders will get access to the Design Studio in June. But Tesla is potentially setting us up for news earlier than that.

We'll see..........

 

[dsvick]

It likely has to do with a few things:

the margins on the 60 weren't that good, unless you went in later and unlocked the remaining 15kWh in the pack your car shipped with.

You can still order an S60 until mid-April.

If employees are going to start receiving their cars in July, they will likely be getting access to the Design Studio very close to mid-April or early May, in an attempt to ensure suppliers are ready to meet initial demands.

Also, this will encourage any fence sitters out there that were considering the 60.

 

[MIT_S60]

But if we stay in line with a rough doubling of the base price, now there's room in the lineup for a ~$75k Model 3 XXD-L.

I'm thinking the elimination of the 60kWh S was a two pronged approach.

I expect the Model 3 to be more expensive after appropriate options are applied than most expect, otherwise Tesla risks decimating Model S sales. Time will tell.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

I expect the Model 3 to be more expensive after appropriate options are applied than most expect, otherwise Tesla risks decimating Model S sales. Time will tell.

If you use these forums as any sort of measuring stick, it clearly won't be a problem because "OMG the trunk opening is too small!!!!"

 

[Sonny Daze]

If you use these forums as any sort of measuring stick, it clearly won't be a problem because "OMG the trunk opening is too small!!!!"

I think at this point there are more complaints about the trunk complainers than about the trunk it's self.

 

[zenmaster]

I expect the Model 3 to be more expensive after appropriate options are applied than most expect, otherwise Tesla risks decimating Model S sales. Time will tell.

What do most expect the price to be after appropriate options are applied?