Cancel LR MS+ Order & Wait for Refresh?

[BieberFever]

There are more and more rumors around a refresh. Here is the most recent rumor (Tesla announces extended Model S/X production shutdown, hinting at design refresh - Electrek). I often find Electrek to be credible. I've ordered on 10/19 and I am still waiting on my VIN. Is it worth it to go for a Model Y or 3 in the meantime and see what the new refresh looks like? My concern is that the current Model S will drop substantially in value once the refresh hits and if I only have to wait until Q1 then perhaps it's worth it.

What is often the repercussion to specific model values once a refresh is done?

Bah I've been waiting so long at this point I almost feel like...what is another few months

 

[Nappypapi]

I final put my 100 down today and didnt even know about the shutdown, im hopeful to get in on the refresh...time will tell

 

[Ostrichsak]

There are more and more rumors around a refresh. Here is the most recent rumor (Tesla announces extended Model S/X production shutdown, hinting at design refresh - Electrek). I often find Electrek to be credible. I've ordered on 10/19 and I am still waiting on my VIN. Is it worth it to go for a Model Y or 3 in the meantime and see what the new refresh looks like? My concern is that the current Model S will drop substantially in value once the refresh hits and if I only have to wait until Q1 then perhaps it's worth it.

What is often the repercussion to specific model values once a refresh is done?

Bah I've been waiting so long at this point I almost feel like...what is another few months

Orly? I often find them making stuff up to drive clicks.

 

[BieberFever]

Orly? I often find them making stuff up to drive clicks.

I've found them credible, BUT...I've been watching this closely for about a year so I could be way off on that. Good to hear a balanced perspective.

Still not sure what happens and if I just wait...

 

[Wilber]

Bieber - I have ordered an MX and waiting for a VIN. If Tesla doesnt announce some kind of reason for this shutdown that isnt a refresh, then i plan to cancel. I have been following things in the official Tesla MS forum and folks are taking this announcement farirly seriously. I am not so much concerned about 'loosing value' if i buy MX this month, but missing out on TONS of improvements by just a few weeks!

 

[BieberFever]

Bieber - I have ordered an MX and waiting for a VIN. If Tesla doesnt announce some kind of reason for this shutdown that isnt a refresh, then i plan to cancel. I have been following things in the official Tesla MS forum and folks are taking this announcement farirly seriously. I am not so much concerned about 'loosing value' if i buy MX this month, but missing out on TONS of improvements by just a few weeks!

Agreed...it's a pain actually because I love the current S, but if it just means waiting a few months...it might be worth the wait.

 

[Ostrichsak]

If I had a dollar for every time someone knew definitively that there was an update pending on the Model S/X because reasons I could buy a new Model S/X by now.

 

[SilverGS]

@BieberFever I think they are just trying to focus more production on Model 3/Y. I don't think there is any significant refresh coming to the S/X - simply because we would have seen some leaks already. What makes it even more unlikely is that how can both S/X have refreshes simultaneously? Tesla is so swamped with the 3/Y production and other stuff they are doing especially for the year end push. This is just another example of articles by Fred to generate more clicks.

 

[bob_p]

Adding some credibility to the possibility of an S/X refresh is the price increase already announced for the next batch of S/X to be delivered to Europe next year - which would make more sense, if Tesla is also planning a US price increase for Q1 next year.

So...

It's possible a refresh is coming during the factory shutdown and that Tesla will soon be announcing an S/X price increase, as we get closer to the factory shutdown.

Tesla will likely try to build as many of the S/X orders as possible before the shutdown. And if there are S/X changes after the shutdown, Tesla will likely provide those at no additional charge to customers with pending orders not built before the shutdown.

Though it's also very possible the shutdown doesn't mean there's a refresh - and that the Europe price increase isn't related to a refresh coming.

Since a price increase could be around $6K - since a refresh probably wouldn't add major functionality, ordering now locks in the current pricing. Waiting - could cost more to buy an S/X for delivery next year...

 

[Ostrichsak]

How is it that a factory shutdown and sending all of the factory workers home for a couple of weeks paid is an effective way to convert an assembly line over? Who do you think would be responsible for switching the assembly line over? Santa's elves? For years now every time something happens that's even remotely abnormal it "guarantees a Model S/X refresh is eminent" to some. It pains me to think of how many people remain on the sidelines waiting for the "eminent" refresh to happen.

It's Christmas. It's not uncommon for people to get paid time off around this time of year... especially for companies who met or exceeded all annual goals. Usually the most likely explanation is also the correct one.

 

[SilverGS]

How is it that a factory shutdown and sending all of the factory workers home for a couple of weeks paid is an effective way to convert an assembly line over? Who do you think would be responsible for switched the assembly line over? Santa's elves? For years now every time something happens that's even remotely abnormal it "guarantees a Model S/X refresh is eminent" to some. It pains me to think of how many people remain on the sidelines waiting for the "eminent" refresh to happen.

Add to that a refresh for both Models S and X?? This article by Fred Lambert has got to be one of his most useless stories ever.

 

[BieberFever]

Helpful, thanks all...I'm sticking it out with my order. Too much uncertainty, I'm tired of waiting.

 

[SilverGS]

Helpful, thanks all...I'm sticking it out with my order. Too much uncertainty, I'm tired of waiting.

Trust me, you will wonder why you didn't get one sooner!

 

[bob_p]

Another factor to consider is that S and X are currently built on two production lines.

If Tesla could combine S and X onto the same line, that would create more space for building the higher volume 3 & Y models in Fremont.

This would likely require some design changes for S & X - which could be part of a long-needed refresh.

But can they do this in only 18 days???

Usually, Tesla has been pretty good at keeping quiet on major changes and only announcing them when those changes go into manufacturing. So if/when Tesla does produce a refreshed S/X, it's likely we won't hear anything about it until they ready to start building the new S/X models.

Though a planned factory shutdown for 18 days coupled with the already announced 2021 European price increase could be early indicators changes are coming.

Or not...

 

[Ostrichsak]

Another factor to consider is that S and X are currently built on two production lines.

If Tesla could combine S and X onto the same line, that would create more space for building the higher volume 3 & Y models in Fremont.

This would likely require some design changes for S & X - which could be part of a long-needed refresh.

But can they do this in only 18 days???

Usually, Tesla has been pretty good at keeping quiet on major changes and only announcing them when those changes go into manufacturing. So if/when Tesla does produce a refreshed S/X, it's likely we won't hear anything about it until they ready to start building the new S/X models.

Though a planned factory shutdown for 18 days coupled with the already announced 2021 European price increase could be early indicators changes are coming.

Or not...

Won't hear anything? That's not possible because I hear about this "imminent refresh" every day on this (and other) websites for years now. lol

 

[ucmndd]

@BieberFever What makes it even more unlikely is that how can both S/X have refreshes simultaneously?

S/X are currently built on the same assembly lines, so they kinda necessarily need to move forward in some degree of lockstep until that situation is rectified.

How is it that a factory shutdown and sending all of the factory workers home for a couple of weeks paid is an effective way to convert an assembly line over? Who do you think would be responsible for switching the assembly line over? Santa's elves?

I can guarantee you the elves that would be reconfiguring an assembly line are not the same elves that operate it when it's churning out cars.

Another factor to consider is that S and X are currently built on two production lines.

There are two S/X assembly lines, but they're not split by model. Both cars can and do go down both lines. Though I agree with your larger point that at least temporarily consolidating down to one would free up the needed space for any real ground-up refresh and/or another new model.

Won't hear anything? That's not possible because I hear about this "imminent refresh" every day on this (and other) websites for years now. lol

I've been the first to laugh at the ongoing "imminentness" of this and all of the wild speculation for the past 3.5 years (!) but I'll go on record here predicting there are actually some significant changes coming in Jan 2021. Not as significant as many people are speculating - I suspect it will likely be limited to the interior and some very minor exterior touch-ups, maybe some iterative improvement to the batteries and charging system. Not the "brand new car" people seem to want, but enough to qualify as a major refresh and address some of the common gripes.

 

[unclebnz]

I ordered my MS performance month ago when FSD was 8000.00. I still haven't got a VIN. I wonder if there's a refresh they will charge me the difference in price. Any thoughts?

 

[LN1_Casey]

I ordered my MS performance month ago when FSD was 8000.00. I still haven't got a VIN. I wonder if there's a refresh they will charge me the difference in price. Any thoughts?

As long as you have it on order, it's locked in on price.

 

[SilverGS]

S/X are currently built on the same assembly lines, so they kinda necessarily need to move forward in some degree of lockstep until that situation is rectified.

I was thinking more along the lines of - "refresh two different models simultaneously?" As in that would entail a lot of work - design, manufacturing etc

I've been the first to laugh at the ongoing "imminentness" of this and all of the wild speculation for the past 3.5 years (!) but I'll go on record here predicting there are actually some significant changes coming in Jan 2021. Not as significant as many people are speculating - I suspect it will likely be limited to the interior and some very minor exterior touch-ups, maybe some iterative improvement to the batteries and charging system. Not the "brand new car" people seem to want, but enough to qualify as a major refresh and address some of the common gripes.

I hope you're right about enough changes to "address some of the common gripes". I'm very much interested in seeing some iterative improvements to the exterior - black out the chrome trim, update the taillights (retire the original design matrx LED's) in addition to possible battery and charging improvements.

 

[Altair7]

How is it that a factory shutdown and sending all of the factory workers home for a couple of weeks paid is an effective way to convert an assembly line over? Who do you think would be responsible for switching the assembly line over? Santa's elves? For years now every time something happens that's even remotely abnormal it "guarantees a Model S/X refresh is eminent" to some. It pains me to think of how many people remain on the sidelines waiting for the "eminent" refresh to happen.

It's Christmas. It's not uncommon for people to get paid time off around this time of year... especially for companies who met or exceeded all annual goals. Usually the most likely explanation is also the correct one.

In my previous life (mid 1980's) I was in industrial sales, with some automotive clients. Holiday shutdowns were fairly common. During these times the maintenance engineers would be performing various maintenance, upgrades, and installations, all of these items were planned months in advance. Vendors of any new machines would install them entirely, or with the assistance of plant maintenance people.

18 days is kind of longish for a holiday shutdown. And it is not company-wide either. Just the S/X plant.

Given Elon's poor outlook on the state of California, I would suspect no major investments will ever be made in Fremont. But minor updates - sounds entirely plausible.