Gerasimental
Member
Thanks both! First exam was today, 5 to go. My last absence from TMC did very good things to the shareprice, and it looks like the trick is working again.
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Any new information out of China in the past few weeks? Any new information about Beijing or Chongqing?
I hope Elon or JB will mention something about China during one of the upcoming interviews.
* thought for interview question for the 15th.
Analysts have been very vocal about their skepticism about Tesla in China. Any good news out of Beijing would be very significant.
I hope Elon or JB will mention something about China during one of the upcoming interviews.
* thought for interview question for the 15th.
Analysts have been very vocal about their skepticism about Tesla in China. Any good news out of Beijing would be very significant.
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Jan. to April number. Not impressive though. With this rate, China can only contribute ~5000 model S sales in 2015, it's still far below the 1/3 market share expectation.
I don't think the number is that bad. If you buy the rationale in this post
Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015 - Page 777
there were only about 1,000 Model S's delivered outside N. America and Europe. Even if (unlikely) they all were in China, that would mean 600+ deliveries in China in April. With Japan, Australia and Hong Kong, I would hazard more than 600 in April.
No idea what you're talking about, when you say "expectations of 1/3 market share." Pretty confident current expectations are currently that Tesla will sell around 5000 Model S in China in 2015. Tesla said it expects China to account for about 30% of its sales in the long term, not in 2015.
Before you questioning, you'd better do your due diligent research.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-01-23/tesla-to-sell-model-s-sedan-in-china-from-121-000
http://www.autonews.com/article/201...sia-sales-to-nearly-double-n.a.-by-end-of-the
There are other similar quotes from 2014 Q1/Q2 Conference Call, you can dig it out by yourself.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-01-23/tesla-to-sell-model-s-sedan-in-china-from-121-000
http://www.autonews.com/article/201...sia-sales-to-nearly-double-n.a.-by-end-of-the
There are other similar quotes from 2014 Q1/Q2 Conference Call, you can dig it out by yourself.
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Gerasimental
Member
1600 for Jan-Apr seems good, especially in light of the Numbers for Jan, Feb, Mar according to this article
Tesla March Model S Registrations Rise in China, JL Warren Says - Bloomberg Business
We have
Jan: 469 sales, of which 10 imported = 459 inventory sold. (Source on registrations: Tesla February Registrations in China Tumble, JL Warren Says - Bloomberg Business)
Feb: 260 sales, 60 imports = 200 inventory sold.
Mar: 326 sales, 208 imports = 118 inventory sold.
April: 574 sales (Jan-Apr total - Mar - Feb - Jan).
These seem like very healthy numbers (in the context of the current situation, Maoing, not in the context of the ideal situation as hoped by Elon before entered the Chinese market), both in terms of working off the inventory and in terms of demand. With 70D, I imagine the trajectory for demand is up, not down, and I wouldn't be surprised if we see a monthly average well above 500 from here on.
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Tesla March Model S Registrations Rise in China, JL Warren Says - Bloomberg Business
We have
Jan: 469 sales, of which 10 imported = 459 inventory sold. (Source on registrations: Tesla February Registrations in China Tumble, JL Warren Says - Bloomberg Business)
Feb: 260 sales, 60 imports = 200 inventory sold.
Mar: 326 sales, 208 imports = 118 inventory sold.
April: 574 sales (Jan-Apr total - Mar - Feb - Jan).
These seem like very healthy numbers (in the context of the current situation, Maoing, not in the context of the ideal situation as hoped by Elon before entered the Chinese market), both in terms of working off the inventory and in terms of demand. With 70D, I imagine the trajectory for demand is up, not down, and I wouldn't be surprised if we see a monthly average well above 500 from here on.
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Both articles were published in 2014. I'm an engineer too, I think engineer should be a lot more picky in number than magnitude.:smile:
dmckinstry
Model X 2019
I used to be fluent in English(when I got out of high school). But as I read more and more student papers over the year, my skill level as decreased.
Definitely, the Chinese market ended up being far less than the initial expectations that Tesla had in early 2014. At this point, though, I don't know if the sales numbers are at this level due to demand issues or production and delivery issues. It certainly isn't clear.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
That market share expectation has been revised downward since Elon clearly stated they initially overestimated demand in China for various reasons. I'm not sure why you would use a number that the company has already said was wrong.
I don't think TM ever changed long term goal (balanced market share for NA/Asia/EU ) also TM wants to bridge the reality and long term goal gap as early as possible. NA only took 55% of the market share in Q4/Q1 is actually unhealthy for TSLA growth IMO.
Maoing, earlier this year Elon said Tesla could meet their 55K goal this year even if there was not a single delivery in China. Among other things, I think that's quite indicative they are not counting on 1/3 of their sales coming from China.
To the contrary of fretting about China sales Maoing, I think you might want to consider that if China transforms into being 1/3 of sales at some point, this will be a very large positive catalyst for the stock. China sales being quite small for years to come is currently priced in the stock. Don't get me wrong, this thread has value, and it's worth following how sales are going on in China... as an investor, this is all relevant in the context of current expectations for China, not expectations from a year ago that were reset in January/February.
SteveG3, I understand TM is not count 1/3 on China in 2015. But we should see fast growth to make up the gap. If 2015 ends up 5K which is 9% of total 55K guidance, then it's still many years away to catch up 1/3 goal. As you said, if EU and China (Asia) can take 1/3 share each, the the stock price will be lot higher than today.
Maoing, I don't think Asia being 1/3 of Tesla's sales is a general Wall Street expectation at this point. That's why I said Tesla doing this would be upside. You just brought Europe into our discussion... if Europe climbed to 1/3 that would also be ahead of expectations (of course, if Tesla backs into this because of falling North American demand that doesn't count, but I don't see that as very likely).
As to this year, my sense is expectations are for about 5K sales in China. At some point if Tesla does not show clear signs of a sales uptick in China it will be a negative, but for now, stabilized sales (5K rate) seems like the bar for Tesla China, and Tesla seems to be hitting it. A year from now is a different story. In fact, I think there will be some expectation of some concrete growth projections for China in 8 months when Tesla gives its 2016 guidance.
Gerasimental
Member
Me too (well, about to graduate, becoming a professional engineer, control systems and automotive, this summer), what do you do?
The engineering intuition, I find, operates on a logarithmic, rather than linear, scale. I always mentally add an 'of the order of' before any number Elon quotes as a medium-long term prediction. We'll see about China numbers this year, but I wouldn't see a Chinese delivery rate of 75% of the US rate by the end of the year as failing to achieve what Elon predicted.
When are Model X deliveries to China expected to begin, and how many reservations are there from China?
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