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Tesla cars not a good fit for China, says scholar|Economy|News|WantChinaTimes.com


So this one hit on the 20th, but got missed so thought I would post it here since it was a summit in China. This guy's claims are pretty classic FUD spreading:

US electric carmaker Tesla Motors is less of a good fit for China's market than mini electronic cars, scholars said at the Chinese New Energy e-vehicle Industry Summit on Oct. 18.

A Tesla car requires electricity equivalent to that generated by 5.5-6.5 kg of coal to travel 100 kilometers, he said. The amount of CO2 emissions from driving 100 km is equivalent to that produced by 7.5-9 liters of gasoline for conventional gas-powered cars. The energy consumption and CO2 emissions do not differ much from an average conventional sedan. "It's just like moving the pollution from the road to the electric power plant," Yang said.

Each battery costs thousands of US dollars and must be replaced about every three years

seven Tesla cars have caught fire since Oct. 1, 2013, making safety one of the major concerns for the public

So first of all their "mini" electric cars are very limited in range... so it might be fine if you are just a city dweller who doesn't have to travel far, but that doesn't work as soon as you get outside of that short range... maybe in China the situation is different and perhaps someone who lives there can chime in on the range issue and how it might affect their willingness to buy an EV. But in the US for certain and even in the EU, people are not stuck "in the city" and frequently travel outside of that range. And especially in the US where it is hugely costly to live in the city, people commute heavily into work and need a certain amount of range... again, I don't know how that affects China and their living conditions... but if they are remotely like the rest of the world then of course range is going to inhibit your want to buy a short range EV over a conventional car.

Now onto the pollution claim. This actually *might* be true given the deplorable state of their Coal Power production in China and how terrible they are at controlling the emmissions. BUT! They are rapidly trying to fix that, so any claim of the pollution, say, this year, will be different next year... and in 5 years... and in 10 years... etc. The car gets better as China rapidly brings cleaner power online. So this is just the same FUD that is constantly being spread around in that regard.

Comparing the efficiency of the car, there is not doubt that a small light car is more efficient that a large heavy car. So by that fact alone the Leaf is more "efficient" than the Model S. I don't think anyone contests that. A Motorcycle is more efficient than a car... so by that logic everyone should drive a motorcycle to "save the planet"... A giant jumbo jet vs a small private plane is "less efficient" so we should all get private airplanes while we are at it as well. If you don't consider utility and user capacity you can always make silly claims like this...

replaced every three years? seriously? where does he get this information? I don't think anyone has experienced that level of degrade that would require any kind of 3 year replacement no matter how many miles they put on it. The warranty on the battery alone would tell you this is false.

Finally, the crux... 7 fires? where are these other fires? Have I missed something? To my knowledge there have been 4. Two from running over an object, 1 in Mexico (crazy high speed 100+ MPH), and the LA one (crazy high speed 120+MPH splitting the car in half)... Where are the other three? And even at that, the impact to safety here? There has been all of one death (to our knowledge) and that was again from a crazy high speed (120+MPH) and it wasn't clear that the guy would have actually died had he been actually wearing his seatbelt... So the claims to the safety of the car are FUD plain and simple...
 
Just a short note about coal. According to my thermodynamics professor the most efficient coal power plant is in Denmark (about 45%). China has higher efficiency than Europe because of newer power plants. The U.S. is apperently even lower than Europe.
 
Just a short note about coal. According to my thermodynamics professor the most efficient coal power plant is in Denmark (about 45%). China has higher efficiency than Europe because of newer power plants. The U.S. is apperently even lower than Europe.

If that is true, then his comparison that it is like 7.5 - 9 liters of gasoline would be total FUD...

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forget about this FUD, I even don't bother to post it :)

But how much public opinion does this guy and this conference hold in China? Because that is the important thing. With how much information is controlled and decided how it is distributed (look what happened with Hong Kong and the lies that were blatently told to the people) I would be afraid what hold this guys voice would have over the people if they can't just google the information for the correct data.
 
Bloomberg article from April 2012

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...wer-from-coal-processing-trapping-carbon.html


Efficient turbines have helped China top the U.S. in wringing power from coal. In 1949, the Chinese converted an average of 21 percent of coal’s energy to usable power, compared with 24 percent for the U.S., says Li Zheng, dean of the thermal engineering faculty at Beijing’s Tsinghua University.

By 2011, China stood at 37 percent and the U.S. at 30 percent.


Huaneng says it will beat the average with 42 percent at GreenGen when the plant is completed in mid-2012.


The science ministry’s Zhao says that in addition to looking for efficiency, China is hunting breakthroughs in capturing coal’s pollutants -- and using them in new ways.


“Carbon capture is an important direction we want to take,” Zhao says. “A lot of companies are preparing for huge investments.”
 
If I recall correctly, there was a summit about "clean energy" in last week. This is not the only comment about Tesla, there has both proponents and opponents, but unfortunately the media would tend to pick up the "negative" comments for Tesla.

But how much public opinion does this guy and this conference hold in China? Because that is the important thing. With how much information is controlled and decided how it is distributed (look what happened with Hong Kong and the lies that were blatently told to the people) I would be afraid what hold this guys voice would have over the people if they can't just google the information for the correct data.

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TM opens P85D reservation in China market. Estimated delivery date is March 2015.
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If I recall correctly, there was a summit about "clean energy" in last week. This is not the only comment about Tesla, there has both proponents and opponents, but unfortunately the media would tend to pick up the "negative" comments for Tesla.

It is good to know that not everyone was looking at Tesla negatively, but if the media is only picking up on the negatives about Tesla how would this potentially affect Tesla sales? I thought that the Chinese government was in favor of Tesla, not against it... so it strikes me as odd that the information that comes to the front is the negative pieces... Unless they are just trying to push their local products onto people more so than foreign made products, which sorta makes sense. In any case, word of mouth works the best for Tesla in all aspects it seems, so hopefully the consumers can continue to champion the product with their friends to get them to buy the car!
 
Just a short note about coal. According to my thermodynamics professor the most efficient coal power plant is in Denmark (about 45%). China has higher efficiency than Europe because of newer power plants. The U.S. is apperently even lower than Europe.
Plant efficiency dictates the amount of CO2 emitted, and it's true that the Chinese are implementing new technologies to drive up efficiencies. Good for CO2.

But...

The big problem in China is smog, caused by all the other crap that comes out of (a) a coal-fired power plant, (b) vehicle's tailpipes, (c) home heating systems and (d) other fossil fuels. Unlike the US or EU, China does not require coal plants to install the emissions control systems that would reduce NOx, SO2, VOC, lead, and PM emissions. Doing so would make the plants less efficient.... China recently took steps to limit the use of soft coal in home heating systems, which is another serious source of urban smog.

It is true that EVs shift emissions from the tailpipe to the smokestack, but it's easier to clean up the smoke stacks or replace them altogether with non-polluting sources.
 
[video]http://t.cn/R7aciZC[/video]

A most recently published video interview with Elon Musk with chinese media, between 00:50 and 3:00 in the video. I think this is just a shortened version instead of the full version. Note this video was taken probably a couple of months ago. There was nothing new and Elon just reiterated two things matters China market:

1) Chinese is more enthusiatic in Tesla more than in any other countries including US;
2) In 3-4 years, Tesla wants to start local manufacturing in China.
 
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Finally Q3 China import number is out. http://money.163.com/14/1029/13/A9NQ301A00253B0H.html

by September, total imports 3431, minus Q2 # 1543, the Q3 imports = 3431-1543 = 1888.

Not an impressive number though. I guess it's still limited by production constraints. In Q4, hope China/Hongkong/Japan can get 1/3 quota of 14000 production estimates, which is about 4600 in total.

June #: 958
Total Q2 #: 1543

Note: some cars might not be able to be delivered to customers in timely fashion.
 
Tesla cars not a good fit for China, says scholar|Economy|News|WantChinaTimes.com


So this one hit on the 20th, but got missed so thought I would post it here since it was a summit in China. This guy's claims are pretty classic FUD spreading:



So first of all their "mini" electric cars are very limited in range... so it might be fine if you are just a city dweller who doesn't have to travel far, but that doesn't work as soon as you get outside of that short range... maybe in China the situation is different and perhaps someone who lives there can chime in on the range issue and how it might affect their willingness to buy an EV. But in the US for certain and even in the EU, people are not stuck "in the city" and frequently travel outside of that range. And especially in the US where it is hugely costly to live in the city, people commute heavily into work and need a certain amount of range... again, I don't know how that affects China and their living conditions... but if they are remotely like the rest of the world then of course range is going to inhibit your want to buy a short range EV over a conventional car.

Now onto the pollution claim. This actually *might* be true given the deplorable state of their Coal Power production in China and how terrible they are at controlling the emmissions. BUT! They are rapidly trying to fix that, so any claim of the pollution, say, this year, will be different next year... and in 5 years... and in 10 years... etc. The car gets better as China rapidly brings cleaner power online. So this is just the same FUD that is constantly being spread around in that regard.

Comparing the efficiency of the car, there is not doubt that a small light car is more efficient that a large heavy car. So by that fact alone the Leaf is more "efficient" than the Model S. I don't think anyone contests that. A Motorcycle is more efficient than a car... so by that logic everyone should drive a motorcycle to "save the planet"... A giant jumbo jet vs a small private plane is "less efficient" so we should all get private airplanes while we are at it as well. If you don't consider utility and user capacity you can always make silly claims like this...

replaced every three years? seriously? where does he get this information? I don't think anyone has experienced that level of degrade that would require any kind of 3 year replacement no matter how many miles they put on it. The warranty on the battery alone would tell you this is false.

Finally, the crux... 7 fires? where are these other fires? Have I missed something? To my knowledge there have been 4. Two from running over an object, 1 in Mexico (crazy high speed 100+ MPH), and the LA one (crazy high speed 120+MPH splitting the car in half)... Where are the other three? And even at that, the impact to safety here? There has been all of one death (to our knowledge) and that was again from a crazy high speed (120+MPH) and it wasn't clear that the guy would have actually died had he been actually wearing his seatbelt... So the claims to the safety of the car are FUD plain and simple...



It sounds like this guy is indirectly pushing for the BYD's which are the Chinese made EV's. The problem with a smaller car is in big cities like Beijing and Shanghai you really do go pretty long distances. Besides the long distances there is also tons of insane traffic and lots of traffic jams and idling. These are huge sprawling cities, reminded me of L.A., the traffic, and the urban sprawl that goes on forever (although I haven't been in LA in 15+ years so not sure how much has changed.). I do think Tesla is a better option for the consumer because of the long distances needed, and in general wouldn't you want an EV while barely moving forward in gridlock vs an ICE spewing pollution?

Also regarding moving the pollution from the smoke stack to the tailpipe, smog is a HUGE issue and it is proven a lot of that is due to ICE emissions. So going EV is still a step in the right direction, while it may not be the solution, it's definitely a step in the right direction as they move toward cleaner electricity.

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Interesting. Article on Tesla having it's Tmall store ready for 11.11 (which is like Black Friday/Cyber Monday for China).

http://www.brandchannel.com/home/post/2014/10/28/141028-China-Tesla-1111.aspx
 
Shanghai - free car plates for 400 Tesla Model S & talks w/ Shanghai gov.

first of all, yesterday I wanted to give my closing price but simply forgot to do it. It would have been $240. Ok, I know. No evidence.:biggrin:

some fresh news coming from China. If we have someone here who could briefly translate the transcript of the press conference, I'd highly appreciate it.

http://www.shanghai.gov.cn/shanghai/node2314/node9819/node9820/u21ai943612.html

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and the same news more in detail.

+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

Tesla Car Owners Get $12,000 License Plates in Shanghai for Free
2014-10-29 04:03:50.824 GMT


By Bloomberg News
Oct. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Tesla Motors Inc. car owners in
Shanghai can register their electric vehicles for free after the
city exempted them from paying $12,000 for a license plate.
About 400 Tesla owners in Shanghai have received the free
plates as part of the city’s efforts to promote the adoption of
new-energy vehicles, according to Ma Jing, a vice director of
the municipal government’s economy and information commission.
Tesla owners also get free license plates in Hangzhou and the
automaker is in contact with other cities to get exemptions,
said Richard Lan, a Beijing-based company official.
An increasing number of cities in China are restricting the
number of new vehicles through lotteries or auctions to contain
worsening pollution and traffic congestion. At the same time,
the central government is promoting the use of electric vehicles
to cut down on emissions and reduce the country’s reliance on
fuel imports.
The license-plate exemptions make it easier for Tesla to
expand sales in a luxury market that McKinsey & Co. predicts
will overtake the U.S. as the largest in the world by 2016.

Tesla started deliveries of its Model S sedans in China in
April. The carmaker is expanding its dealerships and charging
stations to meet billionaire Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk’s
expectation that China sales may match its U.S. business as
early as 2015.
 

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