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  1. I

    China Market situation and outlook

    Thanks but i think these 25% are additional 25% just announced 1 week ago and set to become effective in 2 weeks. I just cant find what cars are included.
  2. I

    China Market situation and outlook

    Hey, does anyone know if the new additional China Tariffs of 25% of one week ago apply to Electric cars too? China slaps 25% tariffs on $16 billion worth of US goods
  3. I

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    We dont know how much costs TSLA moved between quarters, it will all show up in Q4. We also dont know how Tesla accounted profit from sale of 20 Mio Nevada tax credits, i wasnt even aware of it back then. My biggest error was underestimating the impact from ca. 1300 fully loaded PX90D being...
  4. I

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    If one believes TSLA will miss its own guidance in Q4 (20-22k) cars, lose 250-300 Mio on GAAP basis and pull Model X-like Launch for Model 3 at the end of 2017, may one see the stock as not oversold today?
  5. I

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    Is it me or did Elon gain some weight?
  6. I

    New Product= P75D?

    I heard from former employee that was developed and is basically in drawer, back when he was with Tesla they didnt greenlight it (P70D back then) fearing it would canibalize P85D, now with P100DL, there is more distance. He expects it to be priced around same as S90D but to have somewhere...
  7. I

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    So what is your Estimate for GAAP ? Mine is ca. 200 Mio loss (assuming 30 Mio ZEV sales), 4500 direct leases (Tesla guided for 15% or ca. 3800 but i think its more like 18%). ASP of just 100k$ due to tons of S60 and Discounts and 18% Gross margin. Also SGAA/R&D being 550 Mio (40 Mio higher)
  8. I

    Tracking short interest

    Just wanted to note that at 400 $ / Share and ca. 185 Mio shares (after solar city) and if we include convertible bonds and options outstanding, Tesla would be second largest car maker by market cap, ahead of VW,GM,Honda,Ford etc, only second to Toyota. One can dream
  9. I

    Potential Solar City bankruptcy impact on Tesla Stock

    In face of recent events, its time to revisit this thread: How much impact would have SCTY Bankruptcy have on Tesla if the merger fails? Non-Gaap accounting will get under ever more scrutiny
  10. I

    SCTY Acquisition makes no strategic, financial or operational sense!

    I believe SCTY was cut off from capital market, Musk is trying to save it, at cost of risking Tesla (not Tesla isnt at risk)
  11. I

    SolarCity (SCTY)

    Bonds are guaranteed to be repaid, they are higher up in the Chain above Equity, Equity is an option on any potention profits/dividends, Bonds are a guarantee, if bondholders are expect not to get repaid (as bonds imply) shareholders right are nearly worthless, bondholders not repaid =Chapter 11...
  12. I

    Potential Solar City bankruptcy impact on Tesla Stock

    Hey there, as you all know im a Tesla and Solar City bear and i have been sharing my thoughts with you for quite some time. So my opinion is obviously very negatively biased against both stocks. Now thats not just stock but also bonds of Solar City are trading at very distressed levels...
  13. I

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    Can Tesla release Model 3 in 2017 if there arent even any early mules driving around? This would equivalent of virgin birth, unless we see first mules by Summer there is 0 chance, and even then its slim. I mean they could hand over few dozen Betas to selected customers on Eve of 2017-2018, with...
  14. I

    SolarCity (SCTY)

    Bonds Detail Bonds Detail I dont really care but holding SCTY stock when bonds are trading like this, and this company needs capital like oxygen, seems irrational. If nothing changes they are toast this year
  15. I

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    My understanding is that the doors are the main problem, the risk is that you will have to get into SeC to realign / readjust the doors every few months, Tesla doesnt want this to happen. The risk not that they cant ramp the production, the risk is that they deliver cars that have chronic defect...
  16. I

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    What do you think will happen to the stock if instead of 10 cent profit they post 30-40 cent loss?
  17. I

    New competitor in 2018. Next BMW 3 series

    The price wont be below 50k$ (you may get discounts from dealers though) it will come pretty loaded though, they do not target naked base Model 3, they want butter not the bread. MB will also have Crossover Sedan in 2018 for the same price. MB apparently knows the plans of Tesla, they think 35k...
  18. I

    New competitor in 2018. Next BMW 3 series

    Let me set some facts straight from what i know: (I am a Tesla Bear so you can ignore me) BMW will have 3 Series Middle Module built into CLAR based 3 Series, the battery is next gen Samsung batteries (maybe same as used in i3 Facelift, maybe even better but not much) release is set shortly...
  19. I

    Q4 2015 Earnings prediction

    Tesla Bear here: I expect Gross Margin to drop by 3-4% in total, due to referrals, discounts, loaners, currency effects, less favorable model mix (S70) and Model X. I also expect OpEx to rise by 3-5%, Tesla paid a lot to third partes in Denmark in order to be able to deliver all those cars on...
  20. I

    Tesla S85D is being sold for 50% at Swiss Groupon equivalent

    The deal is now all over the news: Verrückte Online-Aktion: 18'000 wollten einen Tesla zum halben Preis - Blick CEO of the site says they make profit per car sold, "if i were to tell you how much we paid i will get into trouble." Tesla Europa says they didnt sell them any cars, he says they...
  21. I

    Tesla S85D is being sold for 50% at Swiss Groupon equivalent

    Site in German, looks like they had 502 cars and it sold out but they want to get more during the day, even as Tesla bear i would buy one at this price! The sale is part of 10 year anniversary of the site. Delivery this year apparently. payment must be made before 22.12.2015 QoQa.ch | TESLA...
  22. I

    Tesla BEV Competition Developments

    Option three: Economies of Scale thanks to using parts accross all spectrum of VWAG, the non EV Q6 will be ca. 40k €, so 30k€ for EV Powertrain (minus conventional one) doest seem that much off. LG Batteries are 140$ now (125€) will fall a bit more by , so lets say 140€ (150$) on Pack level by...
  23. I

    Tesla BEV Competition Developments

    Audi Q6 E-Tron project lead Siegfried Pint (former BMW i) just told Süddeutsche Zeitung he sees Q6 E-Tron price start at 70k€, X90D will probobly be 110k€ (S90D is 98k €), assuming both cars have comparable range and performance, and there is charging network in place ( i expect one to announced...
  24. I

    Tesla BEV Competition Developments

    Toyota announcing Entry into Electric cars would be a game change, look his reaction when asked if the secret new car is electric: Bob Carter says Toyota will show the most talked-about vehicle at NAIAS in 2016! NewCarNews.TV Video - YouTube
  25. I

    EU Market Situation and Outlook

    For comparison: Norway has 11 SeC plus 2 Ranger only Service stations for ca. 9500 cars or ca. 800-870 cars per station (if you include ranger stations its 800) Denmark will have 2 SeC for ca. 3500 cars by the end of the year or 1700-1800 cars per Service center Palo Alto sees no problem...
  26. I

    EU Market Situation and Outlook

    Not in terms of future sales, but rather in terms of negative PR and tons of lawsuits. Please who buy the Tesla in Denmark today are not some rich guys with 5 cars, many 1 car households, upgrading from A4/Passat/3 Series, they will be much more less tolerant regarding the issues. Seems to me...
  27. I

    EU Market Situation and Outlook

    Friend working at Tesla Europe: Positive: 500 cars delivered in November in Denmark, hee sees 1,2-1,5k for Q4 Negative: HQ is crazy, wont allow to open more service centers, the installed base will have doubled in 6 month, but HQ adherent that each country must carry its cost, so with sales...
  28. I

    Tesla BEV Competition Developments

    Hyundai Commits To 2016 Launch Of Midsize Electric Car Powered By Next-Generation LG Chem Batteries Remember ? The fact that the car is charging while on trailer after running out of battery suggests its not an PHEV, also apparently it has an EV only Sticker So will we get 40k$ 200 Mile EV 1-2...
  29. I

    China Market situation and outlook

    This is pure discount on top your trade in value, but it gets even better: if you don't have a car to trade in, your friendly tesla employees will basicly get one for you from cooperation partner (at least Parkview store) so you bring a beaten down 1000$ car and get up to 13500 discount. Now...
  30. I

    SolarCity (SCTY)

    Have you guys looked at Bonds? Bonds Detail Its now 68 cent on the Dollar of massive 566 Mio issuance, almost 12% yield, Bond market is obviously worried, if you think Solar City will survive until 2019, just buy the bond + difference between face value and current market price (ca 32 Cent on...
  31. I

    90D Range slowly declining

    I have no means to check back regarding your reservations, all i heard is that they didnt find what they were expecting and were surprised enough for information to be sent around to more then usual recipients within the company. If S90 show higher then usual range loss it may validate my...
  32. I

    90D Range slowly declining

    I dont know about Silicone in the anode, what i was told is that the energy density was same as before, the number of cells is same, so only explaination would be software fix, maybe there is now silocone is that anode, but it didnt increase the energy contained in the cell, so only explaination...
  33. I

    90D Range slowly declining

    Well maybe i dont get it but if Tesla said same number of cells with more energy, and now Tests (apparently) show same batteries, if we have same number of same batteries, where does the extra range come from then`?
  34. I

    90D Range slowly declining

    Definetly but if Tesla indeed charged people 3k$ for what is basicly a software fix that reduces the "degeneration reserve", you can expect some pissed owners (and shareholders). Again i was forwarded a semi-internal email from a friend, when you want to damage a competitor they would have...
  35. I

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

    See my post, imo will be very big news if true. 90D Range slowly declining - Page 13 Also the fact that S90D supercharging appears to be slower then S85D to put less stress on battery due to less degeneration reserve being present. P90D Supercharging Data Even as a Tesla bear this would...
  36. I

    90D Range slowly declining

    I am not sure if i should post it here as it not yet confirmed, but apparently big car German OEM Reengineering division took P90D apart to check out the chemistry and was surprised to find the cells being 100% same as with S85 cars, which would imply range increase either due to less built in...
  37. I

    EU Market Situation and Outlook

    I said unless Tesla introduces major changes that would drive demand, like S70,90,Ludicrous and Referrals. Also Tesla continued to aggressively ramp up fleet sales in Germany (and most likely other countries but i dont know) through leasing, offering preconfigured cars that are deliverable...
  38. I

    Tesla International Expansion into Korea

    In order to get incentives you have either be Korean Carmaker (GM is Daewoo), except for BMW who got qualified for subsidies thanks to its big R&D Base in Korea and the fact that large part of the car value comes from Korea (Battery), also BMW is most popular foreign Brand in Korea (maybe tied...
  39. I

    EU Market Situation and Outlook

    I would like to point out that majority of the cars delivered in Q2 was backlog of S85D/P85D orders from Q4 2014, i expect to see just 2000-2500 in Q3 unless Tesla announces Major changes soon that will still be deliverable in Q3. Feel free to timestamp this post.
  40. I

    Poll: Current Model S owner or no?

    It would be interessting to see how many of Model X Reservation holders are current Model S owners MODS COULD YOU PLEASE MOVE IT TO MODEL X, THANKS!
  41. I

    Website wait times for delivery change

    Please look at rolling 4 week average number of order confirmations, for example number of order confirmations in Norway is down 80% vs Q4 Average (yes it was D Event), still not supportive of 1000/Quarter sales going forward. German confirmations are down ca. 50% vs Q4 average. The trend is...
  42. I

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

    Following him on twitter doesnt make me Realist, period. Read the original story in Automobilwoche, nothing about fantastic, just calling it a Marketing Coup and saying market Entry is very soon.
  43. I

    Website wait times for delivery change

    If you look in German and Norwegian Delivery Excel Lists, the order rate is decreasing since Late 2014, it does not appear to be result of strong demand uptake
  44. I

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

    Anyone already posted that Panasonic has accused Tesla of Marketing Coup regarding the Battery business? Also vow to expand sales outside Japan very quickly, they are selling same systems in Japan for 3 years now acc. to the story: TESLA AKTIEN News | A1CX3T Nachrichten | US88160R1014 Batterien...
  45. I

    Most underestimated threat to Tesla?

    The will not be build in California, they develop only the powertrain, battery tech and some infotainment features, most of the software is being made by Chinese LeTV. The company is now apparently valued at ca. 2 Billion $ btw, up from 800 Mio last round, so its not too shabby. So while they...
  46. I

    EU Market Situation and Outlook

    Im getting paid KBA Updates, 86 is correct, beat me to it :) Can someone from Norway explain the govt decision on EV Incentives? http://www.hegnar.no/motor/artikkel546473.ece http://www.dn.no/nyheter/politikkSamfunn/2015/05/06/2201/Politikk/slik-blir-de-nye-bilavgiftene Does this 200k...
  47. I

    Tesla Stationary Storage Investors Thread

    I think before calculating all these 100s of Millions, please check that the total budget for 2015 is 77 Mio ( http://www.cpuc.ca.gov/NR/rdonlyres/9E029D5B-3144-4FD4-925E-3B95FE9CAF3C/0/2015SGIPHandbookV1_Final.pdf ) Page 8, 25% of which reserved for Non-Renewable stuff like Gas Generators. So...
  48. I

    Website wait times for delivery change

    There are barely 60 kwh sold, there was registration data showing that 60 kwh was just 2% of cars sold. German data car registration data shows less then 4%. Extra 5k in price but second motor, 10 kwh more energy, free supercharging and extended warranty eat most of it
  49. I

    Website wait times for delivery change

    I mean how much more options will they get? Assuming 50% margin on options, additional 10-13k$ in Options is required just to make up the profit loss from 85D>70D switch
  50. I

    Website wait times for delivery change

    That would make margin impact even worse. 300 would be pack level, if its 250, another 750$ less profit