CNBC Manufacturing and Quality Control Issues Article

[psumarkopolo]

No you brought into account the "credibility" of someone. Do you have any systems, industrial or manufacturing experience? do you understand how systems work? I would be happy to share my credentials with the group and put them up for public scrutiny.

Correct...they did NOT hit 1k vics per week as i stated above. 1k/week would equal 1,000/# production days per week. so 143/ day is required. So if they did as they say, Dec. 31...they were hitting 143/day. That number cannot go down, other wise they were not producing at rates that extrapolate to 1k/ week. It is just not possible. Capiche?

Why would you run fast just to slow down? You never run fast just to run fast in a production line. Because at that point, you bring quality into the fold. What is this burst rate you were speaking of? Can you show me that principle in any manufacturing instance?

 

[mongo]

No you brought into account the "credibility" of someone. Do you have any systems, industrial or manufacturing experience? do you understand how systems work? I would be happy to share my credentials with the group and put them up for public scrutiny.

Correct...they did NOT hit 1k vics per week as i stated above. 1k/week would equal 1,000/# production days per week. so 143/ day is required. So if they did as they say, Dec. 31...they were hitting 143/day. That number cannot go down, other wise they were not producing at rates that extrapolate to 1k/ week. It is just not possible. Capiche?

Why would you run fast just to slow down? You never run fast just to run fast in a production line. Because at that point, you bring quality into the fold. What is this burst rate you were speaking of? Can you show me that principle in any manufacturing instance?

You run fast to show you can. You slow down because that is all the material you have.
Fremont is/was pack limited due to GF module assembly sections 1&2.
You can't build 143 a day regardless of how good your line is if you run out of parts.

 

[SteveG3]

ok, so production rate... is their current production rate. So in an exponential curve it should not go down...Remember how elon says we cannot think exponentially? So that is what i am saying on Jan 1 production rate >1,000 units per week (even if they didn't hit it in Dec). So no week should do less than 1,000 (ok the unplanned shutdown in Feb we will subtract 1 week).

Nowhere in there is a "Burst" production rate.

Elon explicitly stated that the ramp would have events of plateauing, and even stepping backwards. This statement was made before the ramp hit any issues.

 

[psumarkopolo]

He also explicitly stated that it was an exponential S curve. So can we agree Elon says whatever he wants depending on when it is beneficial for him?

 

[SteveG3]

I would normally agree with you erth. But you are saying that Tesla has credibility more so than Evan Spiegel. I am telling you that, Elon's public statements he is not omniscient. He acts as though he is "Definitely 6 months of Autonomous" etc.

I want Tesla to succeed. I think they are responsible for a lot of the innovations in the automotive sector. I think Elon should bring in a more competent CEO however. He should be CSO or something like CTO in my opinion.

psumarkopolo, I see today is your first day on TMC.

Here's some background... we have been referring to Mark Spiegel, not "Evan." Mark has a grand total of about $10 million of assets under management, and, refers to himself as running a hedge fund ($10 million is barely within the range that people even consider starting a hedge fund). For many years now Spiegel's commentary on Tesla has been on the level of the National Enquirer. I made a point of clarifying his name so you and anyone else who wants to can look up his torrents of tweets and Seeking Alpha blogs and see his characterizations of Musk, Tesla and TSLA, are so shark jumping, that comparing his credibility to Elon Musk's would be like comparing Alex Jone's credibility to Walter Cronkite's (not that Musk is at Cronkite's level... but that's how off the charts what Spiegel writes is).

For a quick reality check on this... either read some of Mark's tweets or Seeking Alpha blogs, or just think about the fact that with all the accomplishments Tesla has had over the past 5-6 years, and the massive amount of times Spiegel has written about Tesla over that timespan, how probable is it that nothing he has written has been positive?

 

[SteveG3]

He also explicitly stated that it was an exponential S curve. So can we agree Elon says whatever he wants depending on when it is beneficial for him?

It's both like an S curve, and at times can plateau and even go backwards (fwiw, no events actually fit the theoretical notion of an S curve, just as there are no literal parallel lines in reality, etc.).

as to, your comment, "So can we agree Elon says whatever he wants depending on when it is beneficial for him?"

That's quite a claim about Musk's intellectual honesty, and, no, we don't agree there. Musk is a guy who during an interview, looked into the camera in 2012 and said Tesla could fail (as in go under) during the Model S ramp, knowing the footage was available to be made public, which it was.

I think anyone spending some time doing some first hand research on what has been said about Tesla by Musk, and what has been said about Tesla by Spiegel (and to a lesser extent Kolodny), will have no trouble figuring out what is helpful to listen to (though, of course, exercising one's own critical thinking), and what is utter gibberish.

 

[psumarkopolo]

Yes, sorry Mark , I know this. Sometimes, i think folks do not deserve to use my name.

 

[psumarkopolo]

Yes I am well aware. But credibility is a two way street. Yes $10M is nothing. But as an unbiased guy, you realize that even the bulls don't believe Elon? Have you dug into Adam Jonas' CF models? Or valuation models? i have. I know that Jonas predicted 8k Model 3's for the quarter. Even AFTER elon stated 1K vics/week, the man who has the most insight into this company (other than TSLA employees) predicted~ 625/ week. Elon has 0 on production #s. He also included an ASP of 50K, which looks like in terms of M3 production will be very good for the stock. Probably will hit ~9k vics @ high 50's ASP. so that is looking like a 30% beat on M3 revenue.

I don't want to argue what the stock should be. I want to get to the 'credibility' issue. No one trusts Elon when it comes to production numbers.



And yes Evan/ Mark Spiegel, honest mistake, i know him, was on a conf call multitasking.

 

[Krugerrand]

Yes I am well aware. But credibility is a two way street. Yes $10M is nothing. But as an unbiased guy, you realize that even the bulls don't believe Elon? Have you dug into Adam Jonas' CF models? Or valuation models? i have. I know that Jonas predicted 8k Model 3's for the quarter. Even AFTER elon stated 1K vics/week, the man who has the most insight into this company (other than TSLA employees) predicted~ 625/ week. Elon has 0 on production #s. He also included an ASP of 50K, which looks like in terms of M3 production will be very good for the stock. Probably will hit ~9k vics @ high 50's ASP. so that is looking like a 30% beat on M3 revenue.

I understand it can be hard for a lot of folks to see the forest for the trees.

 

[SMAlset]

And then Barrons published this article about statements from Trip Chowdhry from Global Equities Research: Tesla: Global Equities Rebuts CNBC Article with View from Loading Dock

I guess he saw for himself what TMC readers on the Model 3 Tesla staging lot thread (with photos) have noticed over the last few day. Given his comments about CNBC and their "total clown" writer, I'm thinking he may not be invited as a analyst speaker in the future (he's been on several times in the past) LOL. I think the battery issues will behind Tesla at this point in time with the new equipment installed at the Gigafactory. I also wonder if Tesla isn't adjusting deliveries so that they meet their 200,000 Federal tax credit cap at the beginning of a new quarter due to the way the rules have been set when the cut off quarter begins. As an investor I would think that's a smart way to go--sort of sacrificing one quarter when you have battery production issues for a later quarter when more cars can be produced at a faster pace before hitting that cap. No doubt the ending of the federal tax credit will affect some buyers so why not play the quarters to get as many cars as you can while it's still in effect.

As far as the comments comparing quality issues between Telsa to large car manufacturers, well they seem to forget the big guys have their quality issues too. Just this past week Ford recalled over a million Fusion and Lincoln MZKs because their steering wheels came loose or came completely off while driving. I'd take uneven panel gaps or misaligned chrome trim (which can be adjust most of the time) over having my steering wheel come off while driving. 10 times Ford steering wheels came loose or off, causing massive recall

 

[psumarkopolo]

This was all fake too right? More reports, non compliant parts requiring rework, 2nd plant shutdown in 2 months. THis is fine!