Elon Musk on Twitter
Elon Musk ✓ @elonmusk
@FortuneMagazine This is because the first 12 months of production are sold out
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Garlan Garner
Banned
Yeah, but how many cars is that? 100? 100,000? 200,000?
I hate it when Elon gives out half of the information.
BTW - Please don't respond to this message that I'm upset or bothered. I'm just fine. geeesh.
The planed production for 2018 *should* be 500k. From mid 2017 to mid 2018 should be somewhere below that. Around 250k->500k somewhere.
And he did say "sold out" not "reserved" so they probably have taken the most likely cancellation percent into account.
Do I have a history responding to you that you are upset or bothered? If not this remark to me is misplaced. I think you must have to be upset or bothered to make that remark
Garlan Garner
Banned
No...my comment was to everyone. not you.The planed production for 2018 *should* be 500k. From mid 2017 to mid 2018 should be somewhere below that. Around 250k->500k somewhere.
And he did say "sold out" not "reserved" so they probably have taken the most likely cancellation percent into account.
Do I have a history responding to you that you are upset or bothered? If not this remark to me is misplaced. I think you must have to be upset or bothered to make that remark
I understand how you could have taken it that way because I replied to you, but that statement wasn't intended for you. My apologies.
It was for all of those people from my past threads that think that when I post something semi-controversial.....that I'm upset or angry about something.
MissAutobahn
Elon, please ramp up Berlin GF in plaid mode!
Yessss... let us discuss the term "is sold out".
I am definitely sure, there are some intelligents on the forum, that want to interpret it as "after one year stops producing"
I am definitely sure, there are some intelligents on the forum, that want to interpret it as "after one year stops producing"
If so I think we need to redefine the word "intelligents"
JeffK
Well-Known Member
It was obvious from growing trends at the time and you could hear it in their voices. Elon mentioned during a recent call that they are officially sticking with the 373,000 number. This number has magically been static for months neither growing or shrinking as far as the public knows even though we know the lower priced Model S came out after the first announcement of 373,000 and they've boasted about conversion rates. You can't have decent conversion rates and keep a static number unless the number of new reservations matches the conversion rate which is not likely as the mad rush has long since died down until the next reveal or autopilot 2.0 (whichever comes first).
I strongly believe Tesla is hiding the true numbers (listen to the words Elon uses in the call). If numbers were higher than 373,000 then they'd announce that, if lower they will keep quiet for now until new demand fills the void.
That said, I'm confident that assuming there are no delays. Tesla has every intention of fulfilling all current US pre-orders before mid 2018. This will greatly maximize the tax credit while it's still available. The wording on the website was changed because they expect a new wave of reservations and they don't want to set unrealistic expectations for people. If production starts late 2017 as expected then this move gives them a HUGE time buffer considering the percentage of < 373,000 reservations that are actually in the US.
It's not unreasonable, if Elon's estimates were anywhere near ballpark, that current US pre-orders might all be delivered be the end of Q1 2018. Possibly before that...
Personally, I'm about 115k in the global queue but I've probably moved up due to attrition of reservations. If we consider that outside US deliveries are now officially pushed to mid 2018 then this means I'm probably 60-70k in the US queue. I'm estimating an actual late 2017 delivery. Maybe they can put a bow on it for Christmas...
JeffK
Well-Known Member
My sources are:
- Outside US posts on TMC relaying the new wording on their mytesla pages (this is not the same for US res holders).
- The normal delays for RHD vehicles (see past vehicle and other product launches).
- The promise to maximize the US tax credit.
- Educated guessing by me
The Model 3 page on Tesla.com has been updated with new wording regarding deliveries
To me, if the mytesla page changed for only reservation holders outside the US, then that's pretty much official to me and consistent with other announcements and previous expectations regarding international deliveries.
It has been changed a few times the last few days - including "Production begins mid 2017", and is now (at least mine) back to what it has been before.
Edit: No, not quite: "Produksjonen er planlagt påbegynt i 2017." - witch translate to something like "Production is scheduled to start in 2017" - is the current wording there now.
Surprise - there is a big none-US marked for LHD cars
And that promise can be fulfilled by waiting to deliver *any* car to the US marked until their done with the TM3 ramp-up (no, I'm not suggesting that they will do that, just that "wait to deliver any car outside of US until the 200kth car has been delivered" may do the opposite of what you want).
And that is the opposite of "officially"Educated guessing by me
So no, it is not officially been pushed anything. Tesla, when seeing what the media interpreted this to say, reversed the change as a way to say "Your wrong, that was not what we intended to say!". But it is officially been "sold out" for the first year, so the wording that *was* on myTesla page is probably correct for new reservations.
Thanks for the link
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JeffK
Well-Known Member
Note that my mytesla page has not changed and still says "deliveries will begin in late 2017".It has been changed a few times the last few days - including "Production begins mid 2017", and is now (at least mine) back to what it has been before.
Edit: No, not quite: "Produksjonen er planlagt påbegynt i 2017." - witch translate to something like "Production is scheduled to start in 2017" - is the current wording there now.
Surprise - there is a big none-US marked for LHD cars
And that promise can be fulfilled by waiting to deliver *any* car to the US marked until their done with the TM3 ramp-up (no, I'm not suggesting that they will do that, just that "wait to deliver any car outside of US until the 200kth car has been delivered" may do the opposite of what you want).
And that is the opposite of "officially"
So no, it is not officially been pushed anything. Tesla, when seeing what the media interpreted this to say, reversed the change as a way to say "Your wrong, that was not what we intended to say!". But it is officially been "sold out" for the first year, so the wording that *was* on myTesla page is probably correct for new reservations.
Thanks for the link
Previously reports suggest US deliveries first Tesla Model 3: US West Coast Served First, Followed By Parts East, Europe, Asia, Then RHD
Past models have also had US deliveries first.
Also the tax credit comment was specifically for non S/X
Yes, I know it will be US deliveries first, and I would not be surprised if the first deliveries in none-US markets is in 2018, it was just that I do not agree on it to be an official decision to postpone the deliveries until after new-years eve.
I know, but that does not change anything.
JeffK
Well-Known Member
I don't think it'd be officially postponing ... just more of a notification of logistical impossibility or unlikelihood (hence the"official" change on the wording).
Oh I get it, when Elon says 1 year of production is already sold out, he is specifically (only) thinking of US orders. Right now he is totally focussed on meeting US orders on time before the tax credit ends so he really has no time to consider or bother about non-US orders. And when US mytesla page says you can order today and get it mid 2018, that is because it really does not matter how busy the factory gets in trying to satisfy outstanding pre-reveal non-US orders, those can wait indefinitely because it is more important to guarantee new US orders. Yes I get it. It's crystal clear.
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stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
It's vague, but it's a way that plays to two variables: one being production rate and one being the number of reservations that will eventually convert to orders. I'm pretty sure Elon doesn't know for sure the exact numbers, but those two variables give leeway.
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