"Consumer Reports" reports Bugs

[mkaresh]

Good points. I notice TrueDelta still ranks the 2015 Model S low. Any survey they relies on people volunteering information is going to be skewed negatively because the people who have few problems don't report them as often as people who have a lot of problems. The only true measure would be to get data from every car maker, but nobody is willing to release that information to the public.

Our process actually guards against this source of distortion more than other car reliability surveys. It's ongoing, not just a one-time retrospective survey. Problems that appeared before someone joins are not included in the count. The participation rate of Tesla owners who did join, many before they even owned a Model S, has been very high. From this it can be deduced that what you describe has not been a factor in our stats.

What you will find in our stats but not in CRs is that the Model S has actually been improving. All model years might now be about twice the average, but the 2012-2013 used to be four times the average. When the 2013 was a year old it was far more troublesome than the 2015 when a year old. This makes sense, assuming Tesla has been working the bugs out, and is what appears in the results of a properly structured survey.

Another thing to think about: many brands have at least one model with a repair frequency higher than that for the Model S. This is evident when looking the brand averages with a range representing the models / model years behind the averages:

TrueDelta | Car Reliability by Brand, 2013 to 2015 | TrueDelta

For example, the 2015 Mercedes C-Class has a repair frequency higher than that of the 2015 Model S (granted, it's in its first year while the Tesla is in its third or fourth year, depending on whether 2012 is counted as a full year).

We don't have coverage for nearly all models. But even so the ranking is about what I'd expect with better coverage.

 

[ohmman]

I'm with @sukhi on this (and have been on the record many times on TMC saying the same). I drive Teslas because I like Tesla. I am on their side, and that means being honest when they're not at their best. Right now, with the Model X, they're not at their best - despite having years to get here. Seeing as I don't work there, and I don't build cars, I can't say why or whether it's unreasonable. I'm sure there are plenty of reasonable explanations. Manufacturing is complicated, electric cars are new. This is a new model with weird doors and a giant windshield and.. well.. mostly those two things.

They need to do better, and hopefully this new production delay will provide the new owners with more solid vehicles. I wanted my delivery delayed beyond quarter end because I didn't want one of the rushed cars, but I got one anyway. And yeah, I'm paying a little bit for it, just as I suspected. This is directly caused by Tesla being a publicly traded company (in my opinion). Tesla needed/needs the public financing, but being private would have allowed them to roll out when ready instead of trying so hard to show some delivery numbers for analysts and fickle investors.

The good news is that they've got a good design and they're really close. I'm confident with the right feedback and honesty, they'll have a very successful product.

 

[cwerdna]

Which GM car or truck that is under 10 years old is giving you the most problems?

Even our >10 year ones are fine. Even our 5 "first year" models were flawless.

I have no clue why people think brand new cars of any brand are unreliable. That is not the norm today, that was a 1970'-2000 issue. The biggest surprise is that it wasn't just American cars that were built like crap a generation ago.
...
And why a KIA is every bit as good or better than a BMW.

What a bunch of bull. Go take a look a Consumer Reports reliability ratings for GM and Ford across all their vehicles and compare to Toyota + Lexus and Honda + Acura. You will see a HUGE difference between the first group and the last. It is not limited to the 1970s to 2000.

BMW isn't known for particularly good long-term reliability either... so maybe your Kia vs. BMW comparison isn't that far off.

Here's an old chart showing reliability ranges: Consumer Reports: Infotainment System Woes Mark 2014 Reliability Survey - The Truth About Cars.

Hang out on Priuschat at the types and frequency of problems for a similar age and mileage of vehicles at say cruzetalk.com or compare mynissanleaf.com to the BMW i3 FB group at Log into Facebook | Facebook. You will see a HUGE difference, and it not surprisingly enough is reflected in their reliability ratings.

Go tell people who had reliable Leafs that their very problematic i3 REx is just as reliable and there's no difference. There's no way I'd say the Model S nor (especially the) X is on par from a reliability point of view compared to a Leaf (decent reliability) or a Prius (very good reliability record).

Take anecdotal reports and multiply them by hundreds of responses or more per model year of each model. There will definitely be differences between makes and models.

 

[cwerdna]

Good points. I notice TrueDelta still ranks the 2015 Model S low. Any survey they relies on people volunteering information is going to be skewed negatively because the people who have few problems don't report them as often as people who have a lot of problems. The only true measure would be to get data from every car maker, but nobody is willing to release that information to the public.

Re: the part I bolded, then shouldn't that same bias/skew apply to all makes and models?

You'll still have comparable results and averages, in the end.

 

[McRat]

What a bunch of bull. Go take a look a Consumer Reports reliability ratings for GM and Ford across all their vehicles and compare to Toyota + Lexus and Honda + Acura. You will see a HUGE difference between the first group and the last. It is not limited to the 1970s to 2000.

BMW isn't known for particularly good long-term reliability either... so maybe your Kia vs. BMW comparison isn't that far off.

Here's an old chart showing reliability ranges: Consumer Reports: Infotainment System Woes Mark 2014 Reliability Survey - The Truth About Cars.

Hang out on Priuschat at the types and frequency of problems for a similar age and mileage of vehicles at say cruzetalk.com or compare mynissanleaf.com to the BMW i3 FB group at Log into Facebook | Facebook. You will see a HUGE difference, and it not surprisingly enough is reflected in their reliability ratings.

Go tell people who had reliable Leafs that their very problematic i3 REx is just as reliable and there's no difference.

That isn't just my opinion, it's pretty well known in the industry.

JD Powers:

• As no single automaker dominates in terms of quality, personal compatibility with a particular make or model becomes more important. Thus, consumers in the market for a new vehicle should test as many brands as is feasible.

2015 U.S. Initial Quality Study Results

Which is exactly what I've seen in the last 15 years and many, many cars.

Yes, my 2 Nissans were total pieces of sheet that were towed to the dealer within 30 days of purchase, and my 2014 Toyota Forklift had serious problems from day one, which costs more than a Prius, but is probably more powerful.

I'm still trying to figure out that how those Nissans blew their transmissions. I did not think they had enough power to break a rubber band. Perhaps I used the wrong brand of hamster food?

But that's just anecdotal info to indicate why I personally avoid imports. In reality there is very little difference in major brands today.

 

[cwerdna]

That isn't just my opinion, it's pretty well known in the industry.

JD Powers:

• As no single automaker dominates in terms of quality, personal compatibility with a particular make or model becomes more important. Thus, consumers in the market for a new vehicle should test as many brands as is feasible.

2015 U.S. Initial Quality Study Results

Which is exactly what I've seen in the last 15 years and many, many cars.

First, I don't trust JDPA very much nor do they give any details as to which systems have problems nor reliability charts beyond brands. Second, almost nobody keeps their cars for only 90 days and then dumps them, which is the age of vehicles in their IQS. Their "VDS" is nowhere near long enough as it only looks at 3 year old cars. The average age of vehicles on American roads is past 11 years.

But that's just anecdotal info to indicate why I personally avoid imports. In reality there is very little difference in major brands today.

My family has had 3 GM cars and 2 Chryslers. We don't buy GM anymore. Our Toyotas and Nissan have had far better reliability than the GM cars.

Even for the JDPA's not nearly long enough survey looking at 3 year old cars, for 2016 US Vehicle Dependability Study VDS, the worst (Dodge) had 2x as many "problems" as the best. That's pretty significant.

I don't know if CR has a more updated chart than A snapshot of cars' long-term reliability, but I'm glad they still have this up, despite it being old (from 09).

"Older Volkswagen models (including Audis) were the most problematic. A typical eight-year-old Volkswagen has almost three times the number of problems as a typical eight-year-old Toyota. "

Here are some examples of reliable and not reliable vehicles, some listed at The Most and Least Reliable Cars by Class.

BTW, in it's first model year, the Prius c earned: Consumer Reports says Prius C most reliable 2012 vehicle despite them not liking nor recommending it: The Toyota Prius C isn't a good car, and here's why.

If there is "there is very little difference in major brands today", then you shouldn't avoid imports and you should readily be willing to buy vehicles and/or brands at or near the bottom of the barrel in CR and JDPA long-term and/or predicted reliability survey results.

 

[wdolson]

What a bunch of bull. Go take a look a Consumer Reports reliability ratings for GM and Ford across all their vehicles and compare to Toyota + Lexus and Honda + Acura. You will see a HUGE difference between the first group and the last. It is not limited to the 1970s to 2000.

BMW isn't known for particularly good long-term reliability either... so maybe your Kia vs. BMW comparison isn't that far off.

Here's an old chart showing reliability ranges: Consumer Reports: Infotainment System Woes Mark 2014 Reliability Survey - The Truth About Cars.

Hang out on Priuschat at the types and frequency of problems for a similar age and mileage of vehicles at say cruzetalk.com or compare mynissanleaf.com to the BMW i3 FB group at Log into Facebook | Facebook. You will see a HUGE difference, and it not surprisingly enough is reflected in their reliability ratings.

Go tell people who had reliable Leafs that their very problematic i3 REx is just as reliable and there's no difference. There's no way I'd say the Model S nor (especially the) X is on par from a reliability point of view compared to a Leaf (decent reliability) or a Prius (very good reliability record).

Take anecdotal reports and multiply them by hundreds of responses or more per model year of each model. There will definitely be differences between makes and models.

There still is a spread in quality between brands and between individual cars, on average. There are always people out there who will get a turkey and some who will get a great car. I've been lucky and so has my family, I bought an ex-company car (Chevy Impala) that had been driven rough in college and got 70,000 almost trouble free miles out of it. I replaced it with a new Buick in 1992 and I'm still driving it. My parents had a 1983 Oldsmobile which is still running (my father sold it but he still sees it around the small town he lives in) and my sister had a 1982 Buick LeSabre that served her quite well. Other people who bought GM cars during that era had a lot of problems.

But to the greater point, while there is still a range, overall car quality has improved. In the 1970s and 80s we had bottom of the pack cars like Yugos, Chevy Vegas, and Ford Pintos. In the late 1980s a girlfriend of mine was shopping for a car and took a look at a Geo Metro. We took a test drive and the engine started smoking half way through the drive, and all we had done was climb a hill at normal speeds. When we took it back the sales guy didn't seem surprised the engine was smoking. He tried to get another one started for us and it wouldn't start. She decided against a Metro at that point.

The worst quality cars sold in the US today are at least a mid-quality car of the 1980s and the best cars are much better than anything out there back then. Cars like the ones mentioned above wouldn't meet current emissions or safety standards, but even if something that bad did, it would really stand out as dramatically worse than anything else out there.

 

[Az_Rael]

...for a car and took a look at a Geo Metro. We took a test drive and the engine started smoking half way through the drive, and all we had done was climb a hill at normal speeds. When we took it back the sales guy didn't seem surprised the engine was smoking. He tried to get another one started for us and it wouldn't start. She decided against a Metro at that point.

Funny thing about those Metros: they are beloved now by hypermilers here in CA where I work. There are tons of them on the road here at Edwards AFB and are a hot commodity when sold. There are even dedicated Metro mechanic shops down in Lancaster/Palmdale to service all the Metros people drive here. So in the end, they weren't that bad of a car since there are so many still on the road 25 years later. Can't say the same for many other cars of that era.

 

[wdolson]

This was the first year the Metro was imported to the US. I heard they did improve over time. Why are hypermilers so enamored with them?

 

[cwerdna]

This was the first year the Metro was imported to the US. I heard they did improve over time. Why are hypermilers so enamored with them?

Probably because the 3 cylinder versions had such good mileage to begin with.