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No. For other brands it is quite common for the first spy shots to appear about 3 years prior to when the car is introduced. So model 3 in 2018 actually fits quite nicelly into such a timeline. I can't say if it's a model x or model 3, but I certaonly hope it's a model 3 since that would mean they are on the right track for it.NO! NO! NO!
There is no Model 3 yet! It's not even designed, let alone a fully functional prototype built. There are far more steps necessary in development before you'll see it whipping around a track like this. Elon clearly stated they are still working on the design, and we would not see anything until next year. 2015 is all about the Model X, a vehicle which is at a point in its development that is consistent with this video.
First of all, there are no "statistics" involved here, just geometry. Second, I opened the image in GIMP (an image editor like photoshop), and measured the diameter of the wheel. It is about 75 pixels, not 30. Third, the error from the resolution would be 2/75 = 2.6%, which still isn't relevant to the ~20% difference that OP found.
First of all, there are no "statistics" involved here, just geometry. Second, I opened the image in GIMP (an image editor like photoshop), and measured the diameter of the wheel. It is about 75 pixels, not 30. Third, the error from the resolution would be 2/75 = 2.6%, which still isn't relevant to the ~20% difference that OP found.
I'm not a native English speaker, so hopefully let's not get stuck on individual words. By "statistically relevant" I was making the point that at low resolution, even the difference of a single pixel in the assumed wheel size can alter the outcome when extrapolated to calculate wheelbase length from that. Hope the intent there is clear.
As for the low resolution, camera angle, lens geometry differences, lossy video encoding imprecision - these things tend to add up. As does the effects of scaling, which happens if digital zoom happens on the camera or in post-processing.
Two questions:
1) Where does your 75 pixels of wheel diameter come from?
2) Where does your assumed ~20% difference in wheel base come from?
And can you trust these?
1) In the Full HD frame, the width of the wheel is around 30 pixels at best. At no point during the 1:32 minutes does it become better. The author in the original post scaled up and you measured a post-processed image. He probably also made his measurements based on an image scaled up through some digital algorithm, from an already poor-quality origin.
2) Even without any scaling, there is already significant pixel bleed in the wheels, making the tires and wheelwells almost disappear next to the bright, bleeding wheels. The wheels seem to drive on hard ground without any tire underneath. When the source material is 30px wide at best, get that assumption even a couple of pixels wrong and the difference extrapolated over the length of the wheelbase becomes signficiant.
I would like to understand where your date on the 75px and the ~20% come from. Maybe I missed something? But if they come from the original poster's post only, I think that may be a misleading data source.
The point isn't that there can't be be difference in the wheelbase. It is quite possible there is. But enough to suggest something other than Model X? More on my thoughts on the analysis of the wheelbase of this mule in the other thread.
Your English is very good!
I should begin by saying that I am not following Model X development as closely as others on this thread. If Tesla or another reliable source has indicated that the Model X will utilize a different size battery (physical dimensions) than the Model S, then I would agree that this test vehicle is more likely a Model X beta vehicle in disguise.
That said, (and this is pure speculation) if I were Tesla and I wanted to do some real-world testing of a prototype Model 3 drivetrain, I would make a point of disguising it to the max. After all, the Model 3 is perhaps the single most anticipated automobile of the past decade. I'm reminded of some of the spectacularly ugly test vehicles Ferrari has created over past twenty years—just to keep the media and the public guessing.
I do believe that the vehicle shown in this video does have a shorter wheelbase than the Model X prototypes previously shown. It also has significantly more bumper overhang at each end, although this could simply be part of the disguise.
Horizontal image compression has been addressed by others in this thread. If there is some, it would be having a equal effect on the rest of the scene, and that does not appear to be the case judging from the logos on the ships, etc—certainly not on the order of 20%.
The 20% factor was arrived at by dividing the wheelbase by the wheel diameter of the Model X prototype (5.3), versus the vehicle in the video (4.3). I included the two versions of the Model S to show that wheel diameter (19 or 21-inch) does not significantly skew the result. Granted, on this test vehicle it is difficult to determine exactly where the wheel ends and the tire begins, but a few pixels will not change the outcome in a big way.
Again, this is all speculation on my part. The Tesla owners community is populated with people like me, who see a disguised test vehicle as a riddle waiting to be solved. Many of those owners, myself not included, have significant technical prowess to bring to these endeavors. I've enjoyed reading the comments to my post, and I've learned a few things too.
It strikes me that tacking on larger (say 23") diameter rims would be an easy and effective camouflage at this distance and resolution. See how much wheel size factors in to the wheelbase speculation? You have to throw much of that out if you admit you can't trust the visual wheel diameter...
That said, this is the most fun analysis I've seen since they buried Paul.
Holy cow you guys are totally over analyzing this. It's a Model X. Pure and simple. Stop obsessing about it.
I'm no expert, but why not make measurements based off a known dimension, the wheel rims/tire diameter instead of pixels? Wouldn't that be more accurate and give you actual inches?
Good point. You would still have to be able to accurately discern the ratio wheel vs. wheelbase ratio from the image, though? Unfortunately the only close shot doesn't show full axel distance and the far shots have so much distortion around the wheels that it is hard to say where the rim ends, tire begins and what is wheelwell...