Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

[Papafox]

On Friday the broader markets marched much higher after dovish statements by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. The DOW closed up more than 3% and the NASDAQ was up more than 4%. We did not see the usual strength in multiplier effect for tech stocks, however, with the ones I watch up 4.25%-6.5%. TSLA closed in the middle of those tech stocks, up 5.77%.

Helping TSLA was likely carryover sentiment from Sandy Munro's recent video, especially the part that Chinese production of Model 3 should yield a 20% savings over current production costs. The bottomfeeder FUD award of the day goes to analyst Gordon Johnson's CNBC hit piece on Tesla, which suggests 70% stock slippage in the coming year. When you put out a call for that great a drop in SP and the market responds with a greater than 6% rise in the SP that day, it's a pretty clear statement by the market that the analysts words are being mostly ignored (and for good reason).

The NASDAQ closed up 4.26% on dovish Fed comments

A big part of Friday's story is the 62% of selling tagged to shorts, which suggests lots of manipulations by shorts today. Unfortunately for the manipulators, TSLA kept climbing into close, which meant that the manipulators lost considerable money while trying to impede TSLA's climb today. There was much at stake because if TSLA outperformed the NASDAQ today (as it did), the performance would lay a solid beginning to a reversal of the recent downtrend and suggest that the uptrend into the 4Q ER has begun.

Comparing the NASDAQ chart above to the TSLA chart on top of it, you can see very few retreats of the NASDAQ progress during the day, but you can see sizable retreats with TSLA. Look, for example at the price walkdowns of TSLA beginning at 10:30am, 11:25am, and 1:30am. These walkdowns required considerable efforts by the shorts to achieve, with selling/minute rates as high as 28K at extreme moments.With 113K shares traded in the final minute of market trading, no doubt a good portion of that trading was short day-traders closing positions after unsuccessful manipulations.

My favorite part of the trading day came after the NASDAQ pretty much topped out by 1:30pm. The shorts tried a mega-dip that never became mega, and then with the NASDAQ pretty much level, TSLA marched higher into close to make up for some lost ground during the various manipulations during the day. Way cool. Notice an uptrend in after-hours trading, suggesting an appetite for picking up TSLA after the regular close and suggesting Monday could be a good day if macros cooperate.

Even with TSLA rising more than 5 3/4% today, shorts were tagged with 62% of selling, suggesting lots of manipulations to explain the attempted stock walk-downs throughout the day.

Looking at Dusaniwsky's report, you can see that since Nov 26, short interest has fluctuated and slightly declined. The lack of an increase in SI at the bottom of this most recent dip (unlike the Dec 24 dip) suggests the shorts lack the conviction that TSLA is heading lower from here. The last time they lacked the conviction to add to their short positions at a bottom was the Nov 24 dip, which resulted in a huge climb from there. Let's hope history repeats itself. We should see some additional trimming of short interest during the recovery to Q4 ER, and that covering will assist the climb as we position for the numbers.

Looking at the tech chart, I just wanted to refresh your memory on just how turbulent this stock has been over the past three months. We saw a dip below 240 even after excellent numbers were addressed in the Q3 P&D report. Since Model 3 margins were much better understood in Q4, I expected Q4 P&D Report to be better. It was (only half the drop) but it was far below my expectations because the drop was irrational (given our understanding of likely profitability with known MGs for M3 and these numbers). We should be ready for a march higher, though, and although there's no money lost of shares held during a nonsense dip, there's the opportunity cost of not having dry powder to take advantage of any nonsense dips. Once TSLA gets a breakout, I will make a point of always trimming a bit at the top in order to be prepared for a surprise dip. I'm a bit superstitious, though and believe that if I do too much trimming at a top that will (of course!) be the time TSLA does its breakout to 400 and above. I still believe there's a good chance that a good Q4 ER will be enough to get that breakout started, particularly if 2019 guidance is strong.

For the week, TSLA closed at 317.69, down 16.18 from last Friday's 333.87. The combination of successful FUD regarding the P&D report plus really awful macros allowed the shorts to reverse last week's climb before we reached upper bollinger band territory. Now TSLA appears to have bottomed out and is ready for the climb which will hopefully take it near the upper bb and set it up for a breakout if the 4Q ER and 2019 guidance are strong. Fingers crossed. Enjoy your weekend.

Conditions:
* Dow up 747 (3.29%)
* NASDAQ up 275 (4.26%)
* TSLA 317.69, up 17.33 (5.77%)
* TSLA volume 7.4M shares
* Oil 47.96 on Jan5
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged as short: 62%

 

[Papafox]

Correction: The Early October dip was below "250". Typo.

 

[TrendTrader007]

View attachment 366551
On Friday the broader markets marched much higher after dovish statements by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. The DOW closed up more than 3% and the NASDAQ was up more than 4%. We did not see the usual strength in multiplier effect for tech stocks, however, with the ones I watch up 4.25%-6.5%. TSLA closed in the middle of those tech stocks, up 5.77%.

Helping TSLA was likely carryover sentiment from Sandy Munro's recent video, especially the part that Chinese production of Model 3 should yield a 20% savings over current production costs. The bottomfeeder FUD award of the day goes to analyst Gordon Johnson's CNBC hit piece on Tesla, which suggests 70% stock slippage in the coming year. When you put out a call for that great a drop in SP and the market responds with a greater than 6% rise in the SP that day, it's a pretty clear statement by the market that the analysts words are being mostly ignored (and for good reason).

View attachment 366554
The NASDAQ closed up 4.26% on dovish Fed comments

A big part of Friday's story is the 62% of selling tagged to shorts, which suggests lots of manipulations by shorts today. Unfortunately for the manipulators, TSLA kept climbing into close, which meant that the manipulators lost considerable money while trying to impede TSLA's climb today. There was much at stake because if TSLA outperformed the NASDAQ today (as it did), the performance would lay a solid beginning to a reversal of the recent downtrend and suggest that the uptrend into the 4Q ER has begun.

Comparing the NASDAQ chart above to the TSLA chart on top of it, you can see very few retreats of the NASDAQ progress during the day, but you can see sizable retreats with TSLA. Look, for example at the price walkdowns of TSLA beginning at 10:30am, 11:25am, and 1:30am. These walkdowns required considerable efforts by the shorts to achieve, with selling/minute rates as high as 28K at extreme moments.With 113K shares traded in the final minute of market trading, no doubt a good portion of that trading was short day-traders closing positions after unsuccessful manipulations.

My favorite part of the trading day came after the NASDAQ pretty much topped out by 1:30pm. The shorts tried a mega-dip that never became mega, and then with the NASDAQ pretty much level, TSLA marched higher into close to make up for some lost ground during the various manipulations during the day. Way cool. Notice an uptrend in after-hours trading, suggesting an appetite for picking up TSLA after the regular close and suggesting Monday could be a good day if macros cooperate.

View attachment 366552
Even with TSLA rising more than 5 3/4% today, shorts were tagged with 62% of selling, suggesting lots of manipulations to explain the attempted stock walk-downs throughout the day.

View attachment 366672
Looking at Dusaniwsky's report, you can see that since Nov 26, short interest has fluctuated and slightly declined. The lack of an increase in SI at the bottom of this most recent dip (unlike the Dec 24 dip) suggests the shorts lack the conviction that TSLA is heading lower from here. The last time they lacked the conviction to add to their short positions at a bottom was the Nov 24 dip, which resulted in a huge climb from there. Let's hope history repeats itself. We should see some additional trimming of short interest during the recovery to Q4 ER, and that covering will assist the climb as we position for the numbers.


View attachment 366553
Looking at the tech chart, I just wanted to refresh your memory on just how turbulent this stock has been over the past three months. We saw a dip below 240 even after excellent numbers were addressed in the Q3 P&D report. Since Model 3 margins were much better understood in Q4, I expected Q4 P&D Report to be better. It was (only half the drop) but it was far below my expectations because the drop was irrational (given our understanding of likely profitability with known MGs for M3 and these numbers). We should be ready for a march higher, though, and although there's no money lost of shares held during a nonsense dip, there's the opportunity cost of not having dry powder to take advantage of any nonsense dips. Once TSLA gets a breakout, I will make a point of always trimming a bit at the top in order to be prepared for a surprise dip. I'm a bit superstitious, though and believe that if I do too much trimming at a top that will (of course!) be the time TSLA does its breakout to 400 and above. I still believe there's a good chance that a good Q4 ER will be enough to get that breakout started, particularly if 2019 guidance is strong.

For the week, TSLA closed at 317.69, down 16.18 from last Friday's 333.87. The combination of successful FUD regarding the P&D report plus really awful macros allowed the shorts to reverse last week's climb before we reached upper bollinger band territory. Now TSLA appears to have bottomed out and is ready for the climb which will hopefully take it near the upper bb and set it up for a breakout if the 4Q ER and 2019 guidance are strong. Fingers crossed. Enjoy your weekend.

Conditions:
* Dow up 747 (3.29%)
* NASDAQ up 275 (4.26%)
* TSLA 317.69, up 17.33 (5.77%)
* TSLA volume 7.4M shares
* Oil 47.96 on Jan5
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged as short: 62%

your prescient comments on last Thursday about Friday's trading were spot on! way to go, Papafox
i would like to add my 2 cents here. i agree that Q4 ER is likely to be the inflection point for breakout over $400 but this time we will be breaking out of a 5 year consolidation instead of a 2.5 year prior to 2013.
therefore, we could possibly end up seeing a sustained upward 45 to 70 degree price trajectory lasting much longer than many expect. we will see, but seems to me the smartest game in town is to stay long $TSLA over the next 2 to 5 years overall and limit trading to select inflection points to maximize profits.
i would not mind a near 90 degree move though

 

[madodel]

Every time I think there can't be new news to drive Tesla, Elon pops off a Tweet. Will be interesting to see how the shorts spin the news of breaking ground in Shanghai. Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[pz1975]

Every time I think there can't be new news to drive Tesla, Elon pops off a Tweet. Will be interesting to see how the shorts spin the news of breaking ground in Shanghai. Elon Musk on TwitterView attachment 366849

Don’t you know they lose money on every factory they make?

 

[winfield100]

prescient.....Papafox.....smartest game....stay long $TSLA next 20 to 50 year(s)limit trading to Dollar cost averaging buys only

Fixed it
’(Apologies for post in poppa fox thread)
Will delete if asked

 

[Papafox]

Today we saw day two of the rapid recovery from the nonsense dip of last week (the macro portion was actual but overstated and the P&D report reaction was indeed nonsense). Without any big dips today, TSLA's climb gave no relief for the very significant manipulations that shorts had been engineering (64% of selling tagged to shorts), and consequently the manipulators lost lots of money for the second day in a row. Couldn't happen to a more deserving bunch of scalawags.

The day began with a mandatory morning dip that was defeated very quickly and before it reached red, which gave bulls incentive to bid the SP higher and the rally began. The NASDAQ had a small dip just prior and after 10am, but TSLA largely ignored that dip and we see that for the most part TSLA was not overly affected by the NASDAQ. TSLA did lose some ground between 1:40pm and 3:00pm as the NASDAQ sunk, but did so with a lighter touch. All in all, TSLA looked strong today.

Good news included Tweets from Elon regarding the groundbreaking ceremony for GF3 in Shanghai and suggestions that progress will be rapid, given the speed at which the recent supercharger station was built out. Elon has an excellent relationship with the mayor and city officials, and his showing up in person for the groundbreaking was a meaningful effort. Good show.

The NASDAQ climbed 1.26% today, a mere sliver of TSLA's 5.44% gains. The light gains of the macros was a perfect environment for TSLA's recovery as the macros were not draining resources away from TSLA as it roared and then reclaimed ground lost last week.

Shorts were tagged with 64% of TSLA selling today, an unusually high number considering the big gains for TSLA today.

Looking at the tech chart, you can see that in just two days TSLA has recovered nearly all of the losses since the uptrend reversed a week ago. I really expected shorts to defend 335 and they did (by 4 cents). The SP 335 marks the approx. halfway point between the recent lows and the recent highs. I think shorts have been defending because of desires to keep other shorts from panicking and jumping ship. Note, too, that the mid bollinger band is right about 335. As we climb higher, TSLA will drag the mid bb higher and of course the upper and lower bbs will depend on the mid's position (plus volatility). Once TSLA is above 339.44, it is looking healthy for being above both the 50 DMA and 200 DMA, and so it'd get a boost from technical traders for topping that amount. Expect to see the shorts doing their best to keep that from happening, but on these days when TSLA is climbing like a rocket, shorts have little ability to impede the climb.

Since TSLA has reclaimed so much lost ground in just two days, I suspect that tomorrow will be a bit slower climb as bulls engage in hand to hand combat to retake 335 and the 50 day moving average near 340. With success in those conflicts, TSLA would then be set up well for a further climb.

Conditions:
* Dow up 98 (0.42%)
* NASDAQ up 85 (1.26%)
* TSLA 334.96, up 17.27 (5.44%)
* TSLA volume 7.5M shares
* Oil 48.52
* Percent of selling tagged to TSLA shorts: 64%

 

[Papafox]

I didn't expect today to be an easy gain for TSLA and it wasn't. The shorts don't want TSLA above 340 and especially don't want it above 360, and so they went to work with the 60% of selling tagged to them. More importantly, when you see short interest growing, that growth is very significant because there's no corresponding buying by those same shorts taking place to balance things out at end of day, as is needed with pure manipulations. For example, yesterday short interest grew by about 400K shares. That's the equivalent of 20 separate minutes in which an additional 20K shares were sold within a minute. That kind of selling normally makes a big difference and yet TSLA still closed up more than 17 yesterday because bulls were using the bulldozer to push higher and shorts don't stand a chance when there's nothing to fear and there's a taste for buying at an attractive price.

Tuesday was different however because the NASDAQ took a dip into the red that bottomed out around 10:50am. Moreover, TSLA was inexplicably bullish in pre-market trading with no real news to propel it above 344. Some TMC members theorize that stories of Larry Ellison's billion dollar investment in TSLA were misinterpreted, which led to the runup. Who knows. It might just have been the NASDAQ opening about 1% higher. In any event, TSLA's exuberant opening price was followed by a shallow mandatory morning dip that was quickly defeated and TSLA might have gone on to proving me wrong about having a third big day in a row if not for the NASDAQ starting a downhill run not long after opening and dipping into the red a bit before 11am. This morning dip was the setup short manipulators needed to make some money and they went to work turning the dip into a dip on steroids by selling on the way down. By 11am the NASDAQ was just entering the green again but if you look at the TSLA chart, you can see it was down about 4-5 at the time. A minor dip of the NASDAQ was the excuse for another dip on steroids and TSLA once again descended below 330 between 11:15am and 11:45am. As the NASDAQ recovered, though, so did TSLA, but after the second dip it had much more distance to recover. Shortly after noon, TSLA crossed into the green, and one of the longest sessions of "whack-the-mole" I've ever seen commenced. This, of course, was a serious (and successful) attempt to keep TSLA from recovering with the NASDAQ.

All in all, it was a classic day of manipulations by the shorts with an excellent setup given by the exuberant pre-market runup, followed by a dip into the red by the NASDAQ. The extended game of "whack-the-mole" turned into a successful capping exercise.

The NASDAQ closed up 1.08% today, but the combination of TSLA's over-exuberant pre-market climb plus a morning dip of the NASDAQ led to a perfect manipulation opportunity for shorts

.How has short interest changed the last few days with the big runups? The change on Friday (Fri morning to Mon morning) was about 30K shares, but the change on Monday was more like 400K shares, which is a huge change in short interest on a day when TSLA just laughed at any attempts to slow down its climb. When we reach the slower climb days, however, the shorts get more mileage from their manipulations and with nice setup such as today's they get results sometimes.
Fri Jan 4 20.66% x 128.6M = 26.57M
Mon Jan 7 20.69% x 128.6M = 26.6M (about 30K increase in short holdings)
Tues Jan 8 21.00% x 128.6M = 27.0M (about 400K increase in short holdings)
.
I think a big reason for the uptick in short-seller manipulations and an increase in short interest is an effort to influence the stock price on January 18, when an extraordinarily large number of puts and calls expire. These are mostly the Jan 2019 leaps which are now about to expire. There's lots of money on the line and I think some parties want to see if they can influence the stock price prior to next Friday. We'll see. @Fact Checking wrote a nice post on the subject today.

Shorts were tagged with 60% of TSLA selling today, keeping short percentage of selling at unusually high numbers as shorts desperately seek to derail the recovery leading up to the Q4 ER.

Looking at the technical chart, you can see that TSLA briefly made it above the 50 DMA, but we have a black candle because the SP ended lower than where it began market trading, but it still closed up slightly. If we were to see profit-taking from the big runup over the past few days, today would likely have been it. Now, if we can just get some more good news, TSLA would be primed to resume its climb, providing the macros are behaving themselves. The good news I think we most could benefit from in the short term would be work that Europe has OKed Model 3 for deliveries. This piece of news is essential for Q1 to work out, and knowledgeable investors would give a sigh of relief. Another potential piece of good news would be a January Q4 ER date, which would suggest a favorable ER.

Conditions:
* Dow up 256 (1.09%)
* NASDAQ up 74 (1.08%)
* TSLA 335.35, up 0.39 (0.12%)
* TSLA volume 7.0M shares
* Oil 50.30
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 60%

 

[Papafox]

Charts are coming late tonight. Bottom line is that shorts used their 60% of selling today to dip TSLA below 50 DMA in low volume afternoon hours. The purpose of the dip below 50 DMA is to keep technical traders from getting too excited from TSLA's rally, with the hope that bad Tesla news or a macro dip will arrive soon.

 

[Papafox]

Wednesday was day 4 of the macro recovery and the TSLA recovery from the recent dip. The past two trading days have been small gains, and in both cases it looks likes shorts were up to their mischief because there's no news I'm aware of that would explain the late afternoon dips on low volume.

We see repeated patterns during the past four days such as a mandatory morning dip right on opening, a nice rise in the SP right after the MMD is defeated, and (for the past two days) a fade in the afternoon, compared to the NASDAQ.

The NASDAQ closed up a bit less than 1% today.

Comparing TSLA to the NASDAQ on Wednesday, you can see correlations between the two (with the exception of the MMDs), but the general trend now that TSLA has topped the 330s is that shorts will use the afternoons to magnify dips and subdue climbs. Look, for example at the NASDAQ's dip around 2:20pm today. TSLA dipped, as well, but that dip was extended for a longer period of time as apparent capping was keeping TSLA at the dip level. You can also see the walking down of the TSLA stock price in late afternoon as shorts tried to undo as much of today's gains as possible. TSLA exceeded 343 today but lost most of those gains in late afternoon manipulations.

We get out of the manipulations of the past two days if Tesla reveals good enough news to keep the SP climbing throughout the day and volume supports that rise.

TSLA shorts were tagged with a bit more than 60% of TSLA selling today, continuing the unusually high short level of selling during days with upward movement in the stock price.

The technical chart provides a reason for the recent two afternoon fades of TSLA. Shorts don't want TSLA over the 50 DMA because when it is over, TSLA is considered to be technically healthy. In order to produce a different story, shorts have been manipulating the low volume afternoons to keep TSLA from remaining above the 50 DMA.

Conditions:
* Dow up 92 (0.39%)
* NASDAQ up 60 (0.87%)
* TSLA 338.53, up 3.18 (0.96%)
* TSLA volume 5.4M shares
* Oil 51.72

 

[Papafox]

Today was a really positive day for TSLA longs, and I was very happy with it. For the past two days, short-sellers have played games with the TSLA stock price in the afternoons to take advantage of low volume and keep TSLA trading below 340. Today the NASDAQ took a dip just prior to 10:00am, TSLA followed, and when the NASDAQ recovered with enthusiasm, so did TSLA. The NASDAQ crossed into green territory about 11:00am and TSLA beat it to the crossing. You can see the typical short-seller walkdowns of TSLA runs higher, but about 2:45pm the market got tired of playing games and TSLA climbed into the close. There's a lesson here, which is that if the shorts repeat a strategy too many times in a row, traders figure out the strategy, take advantage of it, and ultimately defeat it. Once it became apparent that shorts were losing on their typical afternoon pushdown, buyers jumped in and continued the climb into close. Bravo!

The NASDAQ closed up a mere 0.42% with dips around 9:55am and 1:40pm and was dwarfed by TSLA's 1.90% climb

Shorts were tagged with 59% of TSLA selling today, which suggests significant manipulations.

The tech chart really tells the story today. Shorts had two reasons for wanting TSLA to continue closing under 340.
* Such a SP kept TSLA below the 50 day moving average and kept TSLA from appearing healthy to technical traders
* The previous uptrend was defeated below 340 and shorts didn't want longs to believe this current uptrend would go higher.

With TSLA longs defeating the afternoon manipulations of TSLA shorts today, a hurdle has been cleared as TSLA has now successfully navigated the dreaded 335-340 range. I believe the shorts will challenge TSLA if it approaches 360 because of implications in February regarding the March notes to be paid. Further, we can see some lively trading as next Friday, Jan. 18 approaches because of the expiration of a ton of put and call leaps that day. As we get closer to Jan 18, there's a ton of pressure on market makers to Delta Hedge the options they've sold, and if TSLA is climbing, they will be buying shares to hedge their option sale positions.

Notice, too, the reversal of the lower bollinger band. It's climbing now, which is good. The upper bb is still descending and it will, of course, offer resistance to climbing, and so the sooner we can get that upper bb to settle down or reverse, the better.

Conditions:
* Dow up 123 (0.51%)
* NASDAQ up 29 (0.42%)
* TSLA 344.97, up 6.44 (1.90%)
* TSLA volume 6.1M shares
* Oil 52.23
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to short-sellers: 59%

 

[TrendTrader007]

important technical developments are about to happen on tesla monthly chart
13 month exponential moving average is about to cross over the Dotted middle Bollinger band line on monthly chart which is highly bullish and typically precedes rally of several months

MACD is about to turn positive similar instances in the past most significantly in late 2012 and early 2013 have presaged powerful Multi month

rallies.

Conservatively expect a price target of $500 at the minimum but probably much higher by June 2019

 

[Papafox]

On Friday TSLA beat against the headwind of a NASDAQ that opened down and never made it into the green. On top of that, you can see the telltale "icicles" of short-selling bursts intended to push the stock price lower but TSLA longs were not in the mood and you can see the immediate recoveries. After the NASDAQ (chart below) peaked around 12:45pm, TSLA broke through into the green and after a prolonged game of "whack-the-mole" started climbing as the NASDAQ lifted.

The exciting part of the day began in the final hour as TSLA started climbing with spirit, and I would wager to bet some of that buying was scared shorts covering. TSLA peaked above 348 at 3:42pm and then the selling pressure began. We saw over 10K shares trade in one of those minutes as someone clearly felt the need to push TSLA down prior to option expirations. In the main thread, @Fact Checking mentioned lots of 350 strike calls expiring that day and this article talks about a great deal of activity with 345 strike calls. Although the downward push never reached 345, those 350 calls expired worthless. Thus, I think options expiration mischief cut the final hour's climb short. TSLA nonetheless managed to close up for the sixth consecutive day in a row.

The NASDAQ never touched green on Friday but ended the day down 0.21%

Other pieces of news that should affect TSLA trading include:
* A ship is busy at San Francisco Pier 80, loading thousands of Teslas for an overseas location, likely Europe. A humorous German suggests in this TMC article that the invasion has begun!
* Model 3 VINs on Twitter posted here that "#Tesla registered 21,308 new Model3 VINs. ~100% estimated to be dual motor. ~73% estimated to be International. Highest VIN is 229766."

The bottom line is that all appears to be on track at Tesla. A high enough number of Teslas were delivered in Q4 so that one TMC member, @ReflexFunds suggests in this post that Tesla will show over $380M in profits and over a billion dollars in free cash flow in Q4. I don't know ReflexFund's track record so far, so I cannot assign a confidence level to these numbers, but as an exercise with a spreadsheet, poking in Q4 deliveries, this is indeed an encouraging report. Let's see what other estimates come forth before the ER.

The other big issue going forth is Q1 production and deliveries and the bear argument that the diminished Federal Tax Credit will adversely affect Tesla. I think the fact that Model 3s are shipping to foreign destinations now and large numbers of international M3 VINs have just been issued suggests that Tesla is busy working their plan for Q1 and that we should see robust production and deliveries going forth. When Tesla can show Q4 financial results for Q4 exceeding Q3 results and provide optimistic guidance for 2019 that shows continued growth and financial prosperity, then the bear thesis will be assaulted and the breakout we've all been waiting for could at last be at hand. The fact that all the 21K M3 VINS were dual motor (implying LR batteries, too), suggests that gross margins are off to a healthy start in the new year.

Percent of TSLA selling by shorts: 55%. What's interesting is that the morning showed significant icicles (indications of short-seller manipulations) but by afternoon it looked like shorts were growing weary of yet another day in which manipulations lost money, due to the steady rise in stock price, which might explain the reduction in percentage of selling today. Let's hope it's a trend.

Looking at the technical chart you can see that today's action definitely brought TSLA above the 50 DMA and is a nice positive trend leading into mid-January.

One big question for the coming week involves how the enormous expiration of put and call options on Friday, January 18, will affect TSLA stock price. Although the max pain number at Opricot showed as 330, if you look at the open interest chart above, you can see that below 340, puts outnumber calls and above 350, calls outnumber puts. You would think the big market makers would prefer TSLA to close between 340 and 350, but they will likely not have the horsepower to affect an entire week's trading. Rather, macros and Tesla news will still likely dominate until Friday. With this many options expiring, though, there will be noticeable delta-hedging by the sellers of the options as TSLA moves up or down, and so we may see hedging adding additional movement up or down, whichever direction TSLA is heading. Let's hope the macros and Tesla's favorable news continues to push the SP higher and that delta-hedging becomes a tailwind.

For the week, TSLA closed at 347.26, up nearly $30 from last Friday's 317.69. It's been a good week. Enjoy your weekend, my friends.

Conditions:
* Dow down 6 (0.02%)
* NASDAQ down 15 (0.21%)
* TSLA 347.26, up 2.29 (0.66%)
* TSLA volume 5.0M shares
* Oil 51.59 (on Jan 12)

 

[Papafox]

Good news and bad news.
First the good news: Glovis Captain is indeed heading to Europe with it's load of Model 3s (shown in Green)
Now the bad news: TSLAQ has a larger submarine fleet than many of us expected.

 

[madodel]

View attachment 368719

Good news and bad news.
First the good news: Glovis Captain is indeed heading to Europe with it's load of Model 3s (shown in Green)
Now the bad news: TSLAQ has a larger submarine fleet than many of us expected.

Yeah but they always shoot blanks.

 

[AudubonB]

Well, it's certainly the case that most shorts are under water.

 

[Papafox]

Today the NASDAQ opened and closed down nearly 1%, which pretty much set TSLA up for a red day after its impressive run of 6 green days in a row. The usual suspects were ready to take maximum advantage of this inevitable weakness day because with a huge number of options expiring on Friday, this is bonus week, where every movement of the SP is rewarded by additional movement in that direction by market makers doing their delta-hedging.

The NASDAQ opened and closed down nearly 1%, setting TSLA up for an inevitable day of profit-taking

Now came the game:
* Goldman Sachs's David Tamberino every few months announces that Tesla is going to fall about 35% in the upcoming 12 months. Why? Because Tamberino's price targets typically are about 35% below TSLA's price and he figures he has has to remind the world on critical days that one of these days TSLA is going to trade closer to his target. Today was one of those day's when Goldman's clients with Jan 18 puts and with shares sold short needed some help, and so Tamberino repeated his mantra, which was of course picked up by CNBC and published as News here.

* Next, shorts went to work on TSLA and manufactured a deep mandatory morning dip that bottomed out about 10:00am. You can tell it was likely shorts because of the rapidity with which the stock price bounced back (thus the "icicle" shape).

* CNBC now had a chance to try and get some traction out of an old story which didn't get much traction the first time it was tried, which is that Ford, GM, and Infinity all made electric vehicle announcements at the Detroit Auto Show. "Tesla tumbles 3.7%" were the words CNBC used to suggest the market is afraid that Tesla will be swallowed up by this emerging fleet of Tesla killers, but they mentioned nothing about the rapid recovery from the short-sellers' MMD, the fact that the NASDAQ was down about 1%, and Tesla is coming off a 6 day run upward, which suggests a bit of profit-taking taking place. Here's the CNBC story that uses the mandatory morning dip to suggest that potentially big trouble lays ahead for Tesla from these Detroit announcements.

* To throw a little more gasoline on the fire, the CEO of Daimler called the Tesla semi "fun" but suggested that Tesla will have a lot of trouble breaking into the quite serious trucking business with players such as Daimler that can offer a wide variety of choices to suit the various needs of businesses. Elon, please don't lose any sleep over this one (I'm not worried, but Daimler ought to be).

The net result of all these efforts was Tesla trading just below 340 for much of the day, and so with only an hour and a half left in market hours, volume picked up as the heavy hitter shorts sold in big volume to facilitate an afternoon dip into close. At 2:30pm more than 21K shares traded in 1 minute and at 2:35pm nearly 30K of shares were sold in 1 minute's time. Unfortunately for the shorts, from about 2:40pm to about 3:20pm, TSLA started to recover from the mega push, but as the NASDAQ began to settle in the final 20 minutes of trading, shorts were able to make more progress with TSLA and they claimed a dip of over 12 today. In the final minute of market trading over 118K of shares traded hands, suggesting covering with much of it likely covering for mischief during the day by shorts.

* Later in the day, Cathie Wood of ARK Invest appeared on CNBC's Fast Money and added some sanity to the discussion. She was greeted with respect because her ARK Innovation Fund managed to not only beat the competition and closed in the green for 2018 but also is up 10% this month. She made her point that the vehicle market is moving fundamentally to electric and that Tesla holds three advantages over the competition: batteries (tech and manufacturing), AI, and data collection. You really owe yourself a few minutes watching the video to understand what an insightful investment manager sounds like.

TSLA shorts were tagged with a hefty 59% of TSLA selling today, validating suggestions that shorts were quite busy manipulating TSLA today.

TSLA's dip today takes it below the 50 DMA. Notice too, how both the upper and lower bollinger bands are pretty swiftly running towards the center. The move by the upper bb will provide some constraint on TSLA before the 4Q ER, but I suspect results should be significant enough to bust through the upper bb if it is too low at time of ER.

Where does TSLA go for the remainder of the week? Much depends upon macros, because now that the profit-taking after TSLA's run-up has taken place, there's room for TSLA to resume the climb, and there's no significant news to suggest the climb should cease. On the other hand, shorts are demonstrating their willingness to expend large amounts of resources to influence this week's trading so as to maximize profits from puts expiring this week and to take advantage of the delta-hedging tailwinds. Come Friday afternoon, market makers may be willing to nudge TSLA up a bit to get it above 340 or provide some down force to pull it back below 350, but for the most part they're limited to Friday afternoon's manipulations. What longs need right now is for some good news to come forth that would put the tailwinds behind them and allow TSLA to retake this lost ground and get the climbing momentum underway again.

Conditions:
* Dow down 86 (0.36%)
* NASDAQ down 66 (0.94%)
* TSLA 334.40, down 12.86 (3.70%)
* TSLA volume 5.2M shares
* Oil 51.11
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 59%

 

[Papafox]

Today's Tesla events summarized in haiku:

Shorts sell and FUD flies
SEC watchmen asleep,
Glovis Captain sails on

 

[mongo]

Today's Tesla events summarized in haiku:

Shorts sell and FUD flies
SEC watchmen asleep,
Glovis Captain sails on

Spoiler: pedantic

I fear Glovis is really two syllables.
Hyundai Glovis - Wikipedia

First line reminded me of A Good Man Goes to War.

 

[madodel]

@Papafox Did the shorts run out of cash today? All I see are articles about fake Tesla competition and SpaceX layoffs. Oh great seer divine for us what is driving this higher today!