adiggs
Well-Known Member
On the Fully Paid lending side, Fidelity has had some of my shares lent out and some not (2 accounts - the account with more shares are lent out), and steady at 0.625%. This has been pretty stable for a month or so.
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Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts
- Thread starter Papafox
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- elon is an ass TSLA
Today was Annual Shareholder's Meeting day, and expectations that some positive information might be revealed was just enough catalyst to get the stock price heading upward. High for the day (and a new ATH) was 359.20 and TSLA also set a new closing ATH of 352.85. Looking at the technical chart (two charts below) you can see that TSLA climbed a fair distance above the upper bollinger band on very little news and made a correction back towards the band in late afternoon trading. The upper bb stood at 351.87. Profit taking before the shareholder's meeting and a pull from the upper bb tractor beam were partly at fault for the late afternoon dip, but if you look at the NASDAQ chart below you can see that its dip was likely the strongest reason for TSLA's late afternoon loss of some of the day's gains.
Note that volume was nearly double TSLA's typical volume.
Conditions:
* Dow down 48 (0.23%)
* NASDAQ down 21 (0.33%)
* TSLA 352.85, up 5.53 (1.59%)
* TSLA volume 10.9M shares
* Oil 47.95, down 0.24 (0.5%)
* Morning's Fidelity short share drawdown or (covering) and interest rate: NA
Another day, another ATH. So far I see 360.50 after-hours, with an ATH close of 359.65 on high volume of 9.2M shares traded. The chart I'm looking at shows the upper bollinger band at 357.77, a bit less than $2 less than TSLA's closing price today. What I'm seeing with trading is something I'm pretty enthusiastic about. If you look at the technical chart above, TSLA rose quickly in three sessions to reach the upper bb, it did a two day consolidation, and then since that consolidation it has been running up with the upper bb. What I like about this trading is that TSLA is rising at about its highest sustainable rate without a correction and a consolidation. Have the minor excursions above the upper bb over the past few days broken the rules and is a consolidation necessary tomorrow? Maybe not, as TSLA's trespassing above the upper bb has been quite minor, but Mr. Market will tell us soon. The best case scenario in my mind would be gains like we've been seeing these past few days continuing into the near future, with TSLA and the upper bb climbing in unison.
The dip we saw mid-day was in unison with a broader market dip, and just as with yesterday's trading, TSLA becomes sensitive to broader market dips when TSLA is trading above the upper bb.
Conditions:
* Dow up 37 (0.18%)
* NASDAQ up 23 (0.36%)
* TSLA 359.65, up 6.80 (1.93%)
* TSLA volume 9.2M shares
* Oil 45.72, down 2.47 (5.13%)
* Morning's Fidelity short share drawdown or (covering) and interest rate: NA
Today was a significant day for TSLA longs. No, I'm not talking about a new closing ATH of 370.00. I'm talking about the strength of the trading we saw today. While I was saying yesterday that the best case scenario is TSLA tracking right up the upper bollinger band as it's been been doing for the past couple of weeks, the even better scenario is to reach a significant price point such as today's and then see the shorts starting to cover in a big way, which could drive the stock up sharply and leave the upper bb behind. MAYBE we're seeing the start of such a move, judging by the strength of today's trading. If not, the problem with a day when you climb about $5 above the upper bb is that you're setting the stock up for a consolidation. Once the stock begins to consolidate, it needs a nudge to start up again, and for this reason I was a huge fan of the kind of gains we were seeing prior to today. So, watch TSLA carefully. It may be on the cusp of a short-covering event which would mean trading quite a bit steeper than the bb, or it might get two days substantially above the upper bb before it consolidates and moves back under the upper bb.
Thanks go to Trendtrader007 for repeating his mantra "don't sell too early during a breakout". This kind of price action hasn't been seen since 2013 and many of us old timers are so spring-loaded to defensive moves that we risk missing the better part of this breakout if we don't hold tight with most of our shares.
Lets hope someone shares shorting activity at Fidelity and IB with us soon. We'll then be in a position to better judge what comes next for this stock.
Conditions:
* Dow up 9 (0.04%)
* NASDAQ up 24 (0.39%)
* TSLA 370.00, up 10.35 (2.88%)
* TSLA volume 8.9M shares
* Oil 45.64, down 0.08 (0.17%)
* Morning's Fidelity short share drawdown or (covering) and interest rate: NA
I'm taking @TrendTrader007's advice here. Not selling. If there is a short squeeze, it's all going to be about supply and demand. The lack of supply of shares will force covering short sellers to pay top dollar and accelerate the process. Now if it weren't for taxes (ouch!), I'd be adding more...
adiggs
Well-Known Member
Here's what I see at Fidelity as of 4pm west coast time (well after market closing).
1.646M shares available to borrow
0.75% interest rate to borrow them.
As a participant in the lending program, it's steady as it has gone for a month or 2 now. Namely, my account with a larger number of shares is lent out at 0.625% and my account with a smaller number of shares continues to be available and not lent out.
That my shares lent out is stable suggests that the overall balance between supply and demand for shares to short is still roughly the same as it has been for a month or more. If Fidelity were seeing enough short positions being closed, then at some point the interest rate will go down (make it cheaper to open a short position, and thereby draw in more people into that position), and I would see my lent out shares returned.
After all, if you were Fidelity, it's way better to earn .75% on shares lent out than 0.125% and paying out the other .625% to somebody else. The only reason to still be borrowing my shares is if Fidelity doesn't have enough inventory to safely lend them all out of it's own pool.
(Also a reminder of a previous note I've made - the whole shorting market feels clunky and manual to me. Like this market is being worked on spreadsheet after hours for Fidelity to decide how many shares will be available tomorrow morning, whether to borrow shares from people like me, whether to return my shares today or not, that sort of thing. So I expect a day or 3 slippage between when it's in Fidelity's best interest to return my shares, and when they actually get returned. It's just - clunky.)
My admittedly very small grasp of the very large elephant suggests no meaningful change over the last several weeks in the short interest.
Yes, one reason why I do not believe a classic VW type short squeeze will happen. Fidelity et al who are also brokerages will likely keep some degree of liquidity and work with the shorts to keep them solvent. Doubt they want some of their best customers to go away. Now a slowly simmering short squeeze probably does work in the brokerages favor... since they can slowly up the interest rates (or lower, to modulate supply and demand) and benefit from the covering and rising share prices.
Today was indeed a day to watch TSLA carefully. The strong gains yesterday pulled TSLA out of its pattern of closely following the upper bb in its climb and set the stock up for either a more spirited rise as shorts start covering or for a consolidation/correction. We ended up with the latter. TSLA climbed with much enthusiasm in early trading to 375, but by 10am NVIDIA was under pressure due to word about shorting activity and by 11am the NASDAQ started a drop that would pretty much run throughout most the day. Other tech stocks dropped along with the NASDAQ as sector rebalancing set in. Thus, the NASDAQ was down 1.8% for the day but the Dow was up 0.42%. Tesla was just one of the many tech stocks that took a hit today. Please note the exceptionally heavy volume for TSLA today.
Looking at the technical chart above, you can see that the gap up and run to above 375 put the stock fairly far above the upper bb and made TSLA particularly vulnerable to the type of broader market corrections that occurred today.
For the week, TSLA closed at 357.32 up 17.47 from last Friday's 339.85 (still a very good week). The big question for next week is when wil the sector-rebalancing be completed and the NASDAQ regain its sea legs? With TSLA so high above its historical trading levels, it remains vulnerable in the short run to broader market activities. Enjoy your weekend.
Conditions:
* Dow up 89 (0.42%)
* NASDAQ down 114 (1.80%)
* TSLA 357.32, down 12.68 (3.43%)
* TSLA volume 17.1M shares
* Oil 45.85, up 0.21 (0.46%)
* Morning's Fidelity short share drawdown or (covering) and interest rate: 309,000 drawdown, 0.75% interest
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Whereas Friday was correction day for TSLA, due to the sizable dip in tech stocks on that day, today was consolidation day. As you can see by the noon rally, TSLA still has buyers ready to bid it up, but overall today was a day to calm down and consolidate. If you look at the ups and downs, it shows a dynamically stable situation, with the dips and the climbs both mellowing out as the day went on. A consolidation just below 360 would be a positive event for TSLA now, enabling it to climb higher as Model 3 reveal day approaches. Let's hope this is a sideways consolidation, rather than a dipping consolidation, and the possibility always remains of the consolidation turning back into a climb fairly quickly.
SBenson indicates in this post that part of the recent run up in price for TSLA was caused by shorts covering. This is a significant development because the shorts have in the past been so resistant to covering. If the covering accelerates next time TSLA starts heading higher the results could be quite positive for us longs.
for the full chart, click here
Looking at the technical chart for the day, TSLA now has about $14 of headroom between its current price and the top of the upper bb, so we see the headroom available for a nice climb, should it get going.
Conditions:
* Dow down 36 (0.17%)
* NASDAQ down 32 (0.52%)
* TSLA 359.01, up 1.69 (0.47%)
* TSLA volume 10.5M shares
* Oil 46.08, up 0.25 (0.55%)
* Morning's Fidelity short share drawdown or (covering) and interest rate: 0.75% interest
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Today TSLA hit a new closing ATH of 375.95. It exceeded Friday's intra-day ATH of 376.87 in AH trading, but
we only count market hour trading for ATHs. The fact that TSLA reached a new ATH after-hours is a sign that tomorrow's start of trading should be positive.
TSLA surged up on a 1-2-3 punch as Ron Baron spoke of a 20X growth of his investment (he bought in around 208) on a morning CNBC appearance, German firm Berenberg upgraded TSLA from hold to buy and massively raised its price target to $464, and Tesla aced the NHTSA safety rating for Model X with the only SUV/crossover to ever score perfect 5s in all categories and sub-categories. Shorts scrambled to cover and we were off to the races. I continue to believe in Trendtrader 007s mantra of not selling too early in an epic breakout (although I have trimmed some holdings to arrive at a comfortable leverage position for the long run). The year 2018 looks like it will be the year when everything comes together for TSLA, and since you can expect significant volatility with the stock in the post-Model 3 reveal days, I continue to believe in leaps that are Jan 19s. Since the path to wealth-building with Tesla looks solid for investments held through 2018, I continue to shy away from options that expire before the Jan 19s. Over the weekend in one of the main threads I will talk about why I believe TSLA will become more volatile after the Model 3 reveal.
In other news, I barely escaped harm to my Tesla Model S today as some drugged-out driver drove right at me as if I was not there. I captured the event with my fore and aft dashcams and will post within a few hours. Only the quick turning responsiveness of the Tesla plus its instantaneous acceleration saved the day. I believe in the products behind TSLA more than ever.
Looking at the technical chart, you can see that even with TSLA's huge climb today, it remains a few dollars below the upper bollinger band. Again, I would suggest we can see two days above the upper bb before TSLA ducks back under it, but all bets are off if shorts start covering en mass and the stock starts running away. We live in interesting times.
Conditions:
* Dow up 93 (0.44%)
* NASDAQ up 45 (0.73%)
* TSLA 375.95 up 16.94 (4.72%)
* TSLA volume 11.6M shares
* Oil 45.94, down 0.52 (1.12%)
* Morning's Fidelity short share drawdown or (covering) and interest rate: 0.75% interest
Today TSLA rose to a new intra-day ATH (384.25) and closed at a new closing ATH (380.66). Tesla followed the Dow and the NASDAQ down at 3pm due to some Yellen comments but rebounded with the broader indexes right before close. It was a strong day for TSLA considering that the NASDAQ closed down nearly half a percent. Volume continues to be very high.
What's notable about the technical chart is the rapid rate at which the bollinger band is rising now. The upper bb stands at 385.93 right now, and so it looks as though the upper bb may be rising faster than the SP in the near future. This relationship removes one impediment to TSLA's ability to rise on a good day.
Sbenson's chart in the market action thread today suggests net drawdown by shorts yesterday, which is really amazing when you consider both the rising in stock price and the volume of buying. That high volume neutralized any adverse effects from yesterday's shorting. Ihor Dusaniwsky's comment today about short interest in TSLA reaching $11.15B is consistent with this observation, which implies that a short covering rally still remains in our future.
Conditions:
* Dow up 46 (0.22%)
* NASDAQ down 25 (0.41%)
* TSLA 380.66, up 4.71 (1.25%)
* TSLA volume 12.7M shares
* Oil 45.94, down 0.52 (1.12%)
* Morning's Fidelity short share drawdown or (covering) and interest rate: 0.75% interest
* News: Elon tweeted that he is in talks with India's government regarding relaxation on import restrictions until Tesla can build a factory in that country
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Here's how a Tesla Model S saved Papafox, his 86 year old mother, and his dog Iceman from hitting a Jeep that came right at us. Trendtrader007, you have to get rid of that Civic and start driving something safer and a whole lot more fun.
Although I'm particularly grateful that nobody got hurt, I am also delighted that my summer road trip was not prematurely ended by one incompetent driver.
Although I'm particularly grateful that nobody got hurt, I am also delighted that my summer road trip was not prematurely ended by one incompetent driver.
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Wow! That was scary! Glad that you are all ok.
Today the broader markets were down, with the NASDAQ down nearly half a percent, which led TSLA and many other tech stocks to be down as well. Naturally, TSLA did its normal exaggerated version of a broad market dip. Over 300,000 shares traded hands in the first minute of trading today, which isn't surprising with the weakness in the broader markets prior to market opening. Even on a bad day, though, buyers materialized, as witnessed by an end of trading rally for TSLA during the final hour of trading that erased half of the day's losses.
I would say that we've reached a point in this rally where buyers are willing to sit back a bit on days when the broader markets are down and let the stock price settle a bit, but once it shows life and starts heading higher, the buyers quickly come out of hibernation and start picking up shares again. Buyers are showing more discretion. Notice, too, that after last Friday's dip, the SP rebounded 2 days later, and after this morning's dip, we saw an enthusiastic recovery in the afternoon. So far the dips are being met with quick recoveries.
Conditions:
* Dow down 15 (0.07%)
* NASDAQ down 29 (0.47%)
* TSLA 375.34, down 5.32 (1.40%)
* TSLA volume 10.4M shares
* Oil 44.33, down 0.13 (0.29%)
* Morning's Fidelity short share drawdown or (covering) and interest NA
Looking at the daily trading chart, the dips followed by immediate near-recoveries is similar to the short-selling techniques used to depress the SP in previous months, but since today was a triple-witching option expiration day, the players may have been individuals or institutions other than shorts. Notice the mid-day rally that stopped just short of turning green. There's no doubt that someone was working to keep TSLA in the red today. As the stock neared the end of day, there was a chance of TSLA bulls buying on the hopes of a Monday morning amateur hour buying spree, but tech stocks were dropping during the last hour and when they did turn around, TSLA was caught in the market-maker tractor beam and lacked sufficient volume to escape.
Looking at the closing minute of trading today, 328,000 shares traded hands. Most likely, the sellers were longs who feared that a lower close today might lead to lower stock prices early next week. We will see if their fears are justified. The alternate explanation is that today was a day with major manipulation, owing to the triple-witching option expiration today, and next week will not contain such an influence.
Looking at the technical chart, we can see the upper bb at 392.54, and so there's plenty of headroom for upward movement ahead. One possibility with the huge runup in prices we've seen recently is that TSLA will enter another consolidation phase. This would actually be a healthy event in that it would allow investors to gain confidence with TSLA's new, loftier valuations prior to the Model 3 release event.
For the week, TSLA closed at 371.40, up 14.08 from last Friday's 357.32. Although TSLA has been volatile lately, the weekly gains have so far remained impressive. Enjoy your weekend.
Conditions:
* Dow up 24 (0.11%)
* NASDAQ down 14 (0.22%)
* TSLA 371.40, down 3.94 (1.05%)
* TSLA volume 5.8M shares
* Oil 44.72, up 0.26 (0.58%)
* Morning's Fidelity short share drawdown or (covering) and interest rate: NA
TrendTrader007
Active Member
Papafox I'm so extremely glad that you and your family are safe enjoy the rest of your summer road trip
Sorry for the late posting, I'm caught up in a time-consuming matter for a few more days. Today TSLA showed respectable gains during pre-market and during the amateur hour, but the stock sagged soon afterwards. The fact that it rose above the red/green line several times and then sank back into the red suggests both some downward pressure from short-selling and the presence of buyers ready to pick up shares on a dip, thus setting up a rather narrow trading range.
Big up days for broader markets have never been TSLA's best days because TSLA seems to climb on its own merits rather than with big market moves up, and today was just another example of this behavior. Nonetheless, TSLA during its recent climb was once rather oblivious to down days on the broader markets but nowadays TSLA will typically descend if the broader markets are descending. My guess for why this change has occurred? TSLA has risen into the 370s and 380s on anticipation of Model 3 production beginning in July. The market is now questioning how high is appropriate for this stage of TSLA's evolution. Down days for macros are enough to constrain further growth as long as the reason for the stock price increase is just the beginning of Model 3 production in the near term, without any substantial additional news.
In after hours trading today, TSLA jumped higher on word that it is close to making a deal for China production of its vehicles. When time permits, I hope to post my thesis about underlying sentiment, but here's the short version of it that is pertinent for today. Longs have had a free ride of sorts for months now because of the positive underlying sentiment about the imminent beginning of Model 3 production. The 1Q17 ER was less than stellar, and the 5% drop that came about in the SP was quickly erased due to this positive underlying sentiment. Conversely, when investors were worried about the November 2016 SolarCity merger vote, the stock traded poorly because of an underlying negative sentiment. This underlying negative sentiment was the reason the 3Q16 delivery numbers and ER (both of which were stellar) saw their gains lost very quickly (within a day for the ER). And so the positive underlying sentiment for Tesla's upcoming reveal of the Model 3 has already generated tremendous stock price growth for the company and some investors are now wondering if the Model 3 reveal and beginning of production has already been priced into the stock. At some point new information and a new reason for positive sentiment is needed to propel the stock price higher, and we saw just such news during after-hours trading when word of a possible China factory for Tesla gave new reasons for the stock price to rise further. Looking at the rather static trading of TSLA over 6 trading sessions, it looks like the news came at the perfect time to get TSLA rising again.
The legend of this technical chart says that TSLA's upper bollinger band stands at 394.xx today. That situation will allow TSLA significant headroom to climb on Tuesday and during the coming week. Taking a look at the chart, you can see that TSLA has been basically trading in the 170 to 175 range for six sessions now, with the exception that on one day it zoomed up to 384 but quickly lost those gains. Expect TSLA to easily break out of the 170 to 175 consolidation on Tuesday should news reports continue to point to a Tesla China factory taking shape in the near future.
Conditions:
* Dow up 145 (0.68%)
* NASDAQ up 87 (1.42%)
* TSLA 369.80, down 1.60 (0.43%)
* TSLA volume 6.5M shares
* Oil 44.6, up 0.17 (0.38%)
* Morning's Fidelity short share drawdown or (covering) and interest rate: NA
While pre-market trading pushed TSLA right up to ATH territory, the stock dipped prior to opening and the result was trading in the comfortable 370-375ish territory. The stock price was primed to run higher today, due to a report of a possible China factory, but the news story failed to get sufficient backup from either Tesla or other journalists and the euphoria degraded into mild optimism. Thus, even though the NASDAQ was down more than 3/4 of a %, TSLA closed up for the day. The good news is that we have seen the pre-market pricing when such news breaks, and when the story does indeed arrive with Tesla's blessings, TSLA is heading up.
Conditions:
* Dow down 61 (0.29%)
* NASDAQ down 51 (0.82%)
* TSLA 372.24, up 2.44 (0.66%)
* TSLA volume 7.3M shares
* Oil 43.37, down 0.14 (0.32%)
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