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Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts
- Thread starter Papafox
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- elon is an ass TSLA
Yeah, that dark-side explanation is possible. If this was Goldman instead of Tesla, I would have pegged that explanation as the most likely. Tesla, on the other hand, is a more honest company, but that doesn't mean that someone shared the information with friends at the last minute. I'm hoping my other explanation is the reason for the rise, but your point is well taken and we don't know for sure.
Today was one of those "what just happened?" days for TSLA. In after-hours trading yesterday, TSLA closed above 350 on word from an earnings beat and very positive guidance. Today, TSLA settled a bit, but not much, closing at 347.09 which, if you look at the upper bollinger band, is almost exactly on top if it. I think in instances such as a really positive ER, the upper bb is a natural place for the stock to come to a rest while investors sort out the particulars. The good news is that the upper bb will be climbing, and as it climbs we could see TSLA following it for a while. Ultimately, shorts will try their FUD and manipulations again, and we'll get to see if they can gain any traction without something negative like the anticipated Q2 ER hanging over the heads of longs. My guess would be a run upwards with the upper bb for a while, with the possibility of a Monday morning amateur hour of exuberant buying.
Today was a negative day for the NASDAQ, but Wednesday evening's news was so important that macros were pretty well ignored in TSLA trading today.
Taking a look at the technical chart, you can see the 50 day moving average is not far below our current price, and at some point, maybe Friday, the shorts will try to push the SP below the 50 dma. Working against them will be a rising upper bb and a stock price which very well may follow the upper bb for a few days.
Conditions:
* Dow up 10 (0.04%)
* NASDAQ down 22 (0.35%)
* TSLA 347.09, up 21.20 (6.51%)
* TSLA volume 13.5M shares
* Oil 48.97, down 0.06 (0.12%)
About yesterday's price action, I have seen plenty of price action before earnings (on other stocks) that LOOK exactly like insider trading with the expectation of good earnings. Then the earnings come out and everything just sucks, and the price gaps down. Been there, done that (traded it, and almost got burned).
While I typically wear the tin-foil hat most times (I really need to get that as an avatar...), I'm content to keep the rose colored glasses on for this one. Unless there's something substantial from the SEC or something like that.
While I typically wear the tin-foil hat most times (I really need to get that as an avatar...), I'm content to keep the rose colored glasses on for this one. Unless there's something substantial from the SEC or something like that.
The day began with a mandatory morning dip, and I think the two pronounced spikes downward suggest that shorts had something to do with it. Alas, buyers bid the stock price up into the green, and I thought we'd either see a game of wack-a-mole where shorts sink TSLA back into the red every time it shows green or we would see enough upward movement to get a rally going, and it turned out to be the latter. Notice how volume intensified during the end of day trading, depriving shorts of an opportunity to drive the price down into the close.
Looking at the technical chart, you can see the upper bollinger band at 351.34 while the SP is more than $5 higher at $356.91. Of course the upper bb will continue to climb, but since we seldom see the SP remain above the upper bb for more than 2 days in a row I would suggest caution on short-term bets that expect this rate of climb to continue. I'm guessing that at some point early next week the stock price will dip below the upper bb as the upper bb continues to climb and the stock price makes a correction to duck below it. All bets are off if good news comes up which spikes buying, however.
TSLA closed at 356.91 today, up 11.84 from last Friday's 335.07. It's been a wild week. Enjoy the weekend!
Conditions:
* Dow up 67, (0.30%)
* NASDAQ up 11 (0.18%)
* TSLA 356.91, up 9.82 (2.83%)
* TSLA volume 9.2M shares
* Oil 49.58, up 0.55 (1.12%)
bdy0627
Active Member
Just one little typo, Papafox. It's up 21.84 since last Friday. Thanks for the analysis!
Please believe me when I say I wouldn't knowingly steal $10/share from any of you! Thanks for the catch.
Today was a real tug-of-war between bears and bulls. Volume was light, suggesting a wait and see attitude by most investors. Similarly, the opening minute of market trading was very light, also suggesting a wait and see attitude. Tesla announced plans to offer about $1.5B in debt, and it is doing so at a high interest rate instead of offering equity financing. Our bond experts at TMC believe the bonds will carry an interest rate of about 5% and that the debt offering will likely succeed and Wall Street will respond favorably when it is a done deal.
Looking at the technical chart, you can see that the upper bollinger band has begun to rise, which places it slightly below the closing stock price. This is what I would expect to see on a day without significant news. The good news is that as the upper bb rises, many technically-inclined investors will have more confidence to buy shares that now fall within the bollinger bands. With a successful debt offering at about 5%, TSLA will have derisked the coming Model 3 ramp-up, and with a rise in the upper bb, there's headroom for the stock price to rise further again.
Remember, the time to raise money is when you don't absolutely need it. If the economy falters in some macro event in the coming year, TSLA will have already lined up the funds to carry on. You don't want to be trying to raise money when the economy is in turmoil. Bravo for Tesla's dedision.
Naturally, the shorts will launch additional FUD and will call the debt offering "junk bonds" (technically, they are correct) and carry on as usual, but a successful capital raise without dilution will bring Tesla's cash to comfortable levels and remove yet another argument used by shorts to attack TSLA's price as being way too high. Just about the only argument left is that Tesla is burning cash. Once Model 3 goes positive in gross margin, that final argument takes a beating and TSLA will be free to rise to new heights.
Conditions:
* Dow up 26 (0.12%)
* NASDAQ up 32 (0.51%)
* TSLA 355.17, down 1.74 (0.49%)
* TSLA volume 6.3M shares
* Oil 49.24, down 0.15 (0.3%)
Today longs and shorts awoke to the reality that Tesla's bond offering is going to be a very positive thing for the company as it significantly derisks the cash situation at a reasonable cost and without dilution. Thanks to SBenson, neroden, and others in this forum, TMC Investors had about a one day head start of the rest of the market in realizing this. Consequently, both longs and shorts bought shares today. While TSLA had adjusted its climb yesterday to allow the previous news of the ER to get in sync with the upper bollinger band. Today, the likely success of the bond issue at very favorable interest rates kicked in and sent the stock running up without much of a worry about the upper bb.
Here's the NASDAQ's chart for the day. Notice how TSLA spent most of the day trading independently of the NASDAQ, but by afternoon the dips in the NASDAQ were reflected in TSLA trading. Look at the big dip in the NAS close to closing and then look at how little a dip TSLA did before recovering. That's pretty impressive trading compared to the macros, I would say.
Looking at the technical chart, you can see that TSLA's close at 365.22 isn't all that much higher than the upper bb's 360.43. We have a good situation with the upper bb rising quickly and allowing the news to propel the stock higher without too much in the way of corrections. I would expect the rising upper bb to catch up with TSLA by end of this week.
Conditions:
* Dow down 33 (0.15%)
* NASDAQ (down 13 (0.21%)
* TSLA 365.22, up 10.05 (2.83%)
* TSLA volume 7.4M shares
* Oil 49.17, down 0.22 (0.45%)
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Papa, thanks as always for the great analysis and insight!
Today was another tug-of-war between bears and bulls. Tesla issues dominated the trading because the TSLA daily chart shows virtually no resemblance to the NASDAQ daily chart.
Reasons for thinking TSLA may go up in short term:
* Likely part two of bond news: successful completion of $1.5B bond issue at favorable rates
* Tesla has been derisked by bond issue, by demand for vehicles, and by highly enthusiastic Model 3 reception by reviewers
* Momentum is now upward and sentiment is positive
Reasons for thinking TSLA may go down in the short term:
* TSLA has climbed more than $50/share since approaching 311 on Aug 2, just a week ago. Some profit taking is common after such significant short-term rises
* Macro fears are possible with political intrigue and an unstable dictator possessing nuclear missiles (No Trump jokes, please)
Looking at the technical chart you can see that the upper bb is now higher than the stock price. Such a relationship is historically sustainable with this stock
Conditions:
* Dow down 37 (0.17%)
* NASDAQ down 18 (0.28%)
* TSLA 363.53, down 1.69 (0.46%)
* TSLA volume 6.9M shares
* Oil 49.6, up 0.04 (0.08%)
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Until 3pm, TSLA did a fine job of resisting the falling broader markets, but TSLA did fall quite a bit in the final hour. The NASDAQ closed down more than 2%, but TSLA's fall of 2.24% didn't look so bad compared to Apple's 3% drop and Nvidia's 4% drop. Overall, sentiment is rather positive for TSLA, but when large macro dips happen, TSLA usually responds. The good news is that today's response was rather mild compared to how much deeper a loss TSLA normally takes when the NASDAQ has a really bad day. Concerns over North Korea dominated the worries felt by Wall Street today.
Today the upper bb rose to 366.85, which gives TSLA headroom to run up once the macro worries subside. Unfortunately, the tension with North Korea could simmer for some time to come. Wall Street becoming accustomed to the tensions plus good news about Tesla completing the bond sales would be enough to get TSLA headed upward again in an enthusiastic fashion. In the event of a mixed bag (macros falling but Tesla announces successful capital raise through bond sales), I would expect TSLA to defy the macro gravity and rise.
Conditions:
* Dow down 205 (0.93%)
* NASDAQ down 135 (2.13%)
* TSLA 355.40, down 8.13 (2.24%)
* TSLA volume 7.09M shares
* Oil 48.66, up 0.07 (0.14%)
Looking at the daily chart, you can see TSLA more-or-less bouncing off 360 twice and someone put effort into keeping TSLA below 358 for much of the day. Today's second half of trading was summertime Friday afternoon trading, which is notoriously low volume and susceptible to manipulations. Whether the shorts or market makers were at work is not clear, but someone was chopping off rallies at 358 today. FUD was also abundant, from what the various threads suggest. The good news is that if someone is having to manipulate TSLA to keep it from rising then there's demand for bidding the price of TSLA up out there and eventually TSLA will run upward.
Tesla closed at $357.87 this week, up $0.96 from last Friday's $356.91. The net effect of this week's up and down closings is one of consolidation of last week's considerable gap up in value, which is a good thing.
Looking at the technical chart, you can see that TSLA has more than $11 headroom now between the SP and the upper bollinger band, which gives room for a nice run up if the market can calm down a bit and Tesla's very successful bond issue is reasonably digested over the weekend. It'll be interesting to see if the successful sale of an oversubscribed $1.8 billion of 5.3% bonds fuels buying on Monday. Tesla's ability to generate money at great interest rates for its current credit rating is a big plus for the company and something that has the potential to positively influence the stock price. Despite the neutral SP action, this has been an important and good week for TSLA. Enjoy your weekend.
Conditions:
* Dow up 14 (0.07%)
* NASDAQ up 40 (0.64%)
* TSLA 357.87, up 2.47 (0.69%)
* TSLA volume 4.4M shares
* Oil 48.82, up 0.23 (0.47%)
Today the broader markets shrugged off some of its North Korea worries and stocks began recovering some of the losses from last week. The NASDAQ was way up today and TSLA volume was low (neither condition is particularly well-suited to a dramatic TSLA climb. TSLA not surprisingly topped out during the amateur hour (1st hour of trading on a Monday morning), then settled in at about 364 after some attempts to break through 365.
It is helpful to take a look at several months of trading so that you have a better idea of the relationship between TSLA when it is on the rise and the upper bollinger band. Looking at the technical chart above, you can see that for the most part TSLA runs parallel to the upper bb and just below it during run-ups. On occasion the stock runs above the upper bb but seldom stays there for more than 2 days in a row. The rate at which TSLA is rising determines how quickly the upper bb rises, which in turn seems to constrain the stock price. Thus, you have a situation that once a slope is established the stock tends to remain climbing on that slope until the climb is broken. Looking at the run-ups in April and June, you can see the slope of rise was steeper than normal. You can now see a slope of moderate steepness materializing since the Q2 ER results were announced. It doesn't take a steep slope to yield nice price increase, though. Look, for example, at the moderate slope of the upper bb from December when TSLA was trading at 180 to its reaching 283 in late February. A hundred point climb in three months is nothing to sneeze at.
Personally, I am inclined to believe that TSLA is beginning another run-up and it'll be at a similar rate to the slope that has been created since the 2Q ER. I have no deep insights. I am just expecting the run-up of TSLA to be consistent with how it has run-up in the past. If I were making any short-term bets I wouldn't hold my breath on it climbing at a steeper rate. Again, everything is subject to news (good and bad) and to macros to some extent.
Conditions:
* Dow up 135 (0.62%)
* NASDAQ up 84 (1.34%)
* TSLA 363.80, up 5.93 (1.66%)
* TSLA volume 4.4M shares
* Oil 47.59, down 1.23 (2.52%)
In pre-market trading, investors were bullish about TSLA and pushing the SP UP, but a small dip in the NASDAQ at about 10 am gave the shorts ammunition to build a surprisingly robust mandatory morning dip today, which likely cooled the fever to buy TSLA today. TSLA's recovery from the dip plus the low volume today suggests that longs for the most part simply decided to sit on the sidelines today and let this meh day play out.
Conditions:
* Dow up 5 (0.02%)
* NASDAQ down 7 (0.11%)
* TSLA 362.22, down 1.47 (0.40%)
* TSLA volume 3.1M shares
* Oil 47.55, down 0.04 (0.08%)
The following comments were made in today's IBD article.
Tesla
Tesla has been working on a cup base going back to late June. As of Tuesday's close, Tesla's handle has reached the minimum five days to create a cup-with-handle pattern. Tesla, which dipped 0.4% to 362.33 on Tuesday, is just 2% off the new potential buy point of 370.10. Until Tuesday's close, the buy point was 387.09, just above the left side of the cup and the all-time high.
The cup-with-handle base is a classic setup that appears over and over again throughout the years. Stocks change, but investor psychology doesn't.
The cup with handle, which should look a lot like teacup, must be at least seven weeks long. (A cup-without-handle pattern must be six weeks.) The midpoint of the handle must be in the upper half of the overall pattern. The handle should be flat to downward-sloping, ideally on light volume. A slight downward drift helps shake out weak holders before a new uptrend. If and when a stock breaks out from the handle, new buyers must bid up the price because existing investors aren't eager to sell.
Tesla has a good-but-not great Composite Rating of 82 out of 99, with its strong share price performance somewhat offsetting continued losses. All-time winners often have a Composite Rating of at least 95 as they begin big price moves.
Tesla
Tesla has been working on a cup base going back to late June. As of Tuesday's close, Tesla's handle has reached the minimum five days to create a cup-with-handle pattern. Tesla, which dipped 0.4% to 362.33 on Tuesday, is just 2% off the new potential buy point of 370.10. Until Tuesday's close, the buy point was 387.09, just above the left side of the cup and the all-time high.
The cup-with-handle base is a classic setup that appears over and over again throughout the years. Stocks change, but investor psychology doesn't.
The cup with handle, which should look a lot like teacup, must be at least seven weeks long. (A cup-without-handle pattern must be six weeks.) The midpoint of the handle must be in the upper half of the overall pattern. The handle should be flat to downward-sloping, ideally on light volume. A slight downward drift helps shake out weak holders before a new uptrend. If and when a stock breaks out from the handle, new buyers must bid up the price because existing investors aren't eager to sell.
Tesla has a good-but-not great Composite Rating of 82 out of 99, with its strong share price performance somewhat offsetting continued losses. All-time winners often have a Composite Rating of at least 95 as they begin big price moves.
apharris
Member
Today's trading of TSLA was much like yesterday's in that the general sentiment expressed by investors was to bid the SP up, but manipulations by shorts and/or other interested parties resulted in smaller gains than would otherwise have transpired. The reason for the manipulations is pretty simple. TSLA rose significantly on Monday and had been looking good for following the upper bb up on the slope established after the 2Q ER. Unfortunately, with macro events that depress the major indexes common these days and with low volume in trading TSLA, the stock is pretty easy to manipulate, particularly in the extra-low-volume late afternoons. Shorts who have a big exposure to TSLA want to protect that exposure and right now with a lack of critical news and low volumes, it is pretty inexpensive to manipulate this stock. The good news is that eventually TSLA breaks out and finds a price that is more in tune with investor sentiments, and I suspect that will happen again unless news or significant macros intervene.
Comparing the NASDAQ and TSLA trading charts today, you can see that both entities topped out about 12:20pm. Once the NASDAQ began a descent, TSLA followed, which is typical. What’s interesting, though, is if you take a look at the TSLA chart, you can see TSLA running up to 366 several times and then being beaten down before it tried to climb again. Also, notice how the NASDAQ faltered around 1:15pm and then had a run-up, but TSLA continued its descent for no apparent reason (the reason is that once TSLA starts down, shorts can keep the downward trajectory of TSLA going with some minor selling). Notice, too, that after the NASDAQ reached bottom about 2:20pm, it recovered a fair amount before closing, but TSLA did not. Again, I suspect this is shorts taking advantage of low-volume trading in the late afternoons. Take a look at yesterday's daily chart and you can see how TSLA made a slow descent after 2pm in low-volume trading.
My thought is that the shorts are primarily delaying the inevitable, which is TSLA breaking higher and resuming its climb, but the right combination of trouble in the macros and/or negative news with TSLA could allow the shorts to win the near-term battle. It’ll be interesting to see, but I think the low volume is indicative of longs not getting too flustered by this week’s trading.
Regarding the chart posted right above this post, the decision was made to terminate the short-term call option when a profit could still be had. For short-term trading, this could indeed be a smart strategy, but the lackluster trading of the past two days is a good reminder of how the short-term trading can truly be affected by manipulations and that there's much uncertainty with the short-term of TSLA even if you believe the long-term is golden.
Conditions:
* Dow up 25(0.12%)
* NASDAQ up 12 (0.19%)
* TSLA 362.91, up 0.58 (%)
* TSLA volume 3.4M shares
* Oil 46.78, down 0.77(1.62%)
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The story today was macros in retreat. A terror attack in Spain plus other news contributed to the macro decline. Both the DOW and NASDAQ had fairly steady descents throughout the day. Looks like the shorts manufactured a mandatory morning dip and it was initially remedied by longs buying back in, but as the full extent of the macro descent became known in the afternoon TSLA descended. The battle right now is a TSLA that is ready to head higher (as many of us believe) but the macros are taking a toll in the short term.
Looking at the technical chart, you can see that TSLA's upper bb has been heading up at a very significant clip and stands above 375 at the moment. That's lots of headroom for a run-up if conditions will allow it.
Iceman the dog and I returned to Hawaii today after a long and enjoyable mainland road trip in the Model S. Glad to hear that TrendTrader007 bought an X. If you haven't yet sampled Tesla's vehicles for a long trip, you owe it to yourself to do so. When you spend hours on the highway you can really appreciate just how much of a revolution these vehicles truly are.
Conditions:
* Dow down 275 (1.24%)
* NASDAQ down 123 (1.94%)
* TSLA 351.92, down 10.99 (3.03%)
* TSLA volume 5.0M shares
* Oil 47.07, down 0.02 (0.04%)
Today TSLA saw a mandatory morning dip that transitioned into a small rally which brought the stock into green territory. Then we saw what appeared to be shorts playing a game of "bop-the-mole" where short-selling takes place anytime the stock turns green or approaches green and the stock is pushed back into the red again. @zdriver suggested that at 12:45 the volume spike appears to be selling designed to prevent TSLA from rising (into the green) and instead begin a descent. With a lack of significantly-negative macros today, we saw what appears to be careful manipulation of the stock to yield a negative result for the day. Why then don't longs just take advantage of the dips and buy at a discount? I believe the answer is that once a few down days are tied together, particularly following a big down day, longs tend to sit on the sidelines and wait for the turnaround, so as to avoid trying to catch falling knives.
The aim of the shorts may be to build upon the negatives of the macros to depress the stock price for a profitable exit prior to a substantial Model 3 ramp-up. Many were caught by surprise with the Q2 ER results and most are under water still. The problem is that once TSLA starts running uphill again, longs and shorts will begin buying again and the plan can fall apart. Macros are likely the key to which side wins next week. Once positive news of the Model 3 ramp is released, though, the shorts are in trouble.
For the week, TSLA ran up nearly $6 on Monday in response to the successful $1.8 billion bond offering. Wednesday was also a positive day, but Thursday the broader markets tanked and today TSLA fell prey to manipulations. Today's closing price is $10.41 lower than last week's close.
Looking at the technical chart, you can see that TSLA could rise nearly $30 now without banging its head on the upper bb. The rising upper bb has transitioned now into a gentle slope down, and the upper bb is a few cents less than yesterday, but still at a very attractive location should a nice run upwards begin.
Conditions:
* Dow down 76 (0.35%)
* NASDAQ down 5 (0.09%)
* TSLA 347.46, down 4.46 (1.27%)
* TSLA volume 5.4M shares
* Oil 48.51, up 1.42 (3.02%)
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