Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

[Papafox]

Today was a good environment for TSLA trading. The macros were way up on optimism in earnings, especially in the tech sector. Normally, the macros being way up can be challenging for TSLA, but on this day news got out that some non-employees are receiving invitations to configure their Model 3s, which indicates that the production bottlenecks are being worked out. Thus, the good news for Model 3, coupled with favorable macros yielded a day with TSLA up more than $9. Also, the NASDAQ made most of its upward move in the first hour of the day and then traded level, which (for a change!) encouraged traders to move money into TSLA as the day progressed, rather than move money in the opposite direction.

Looking at the technical chart, you can see that TSLA is now less than $5 below the 200 Day Moving Average. @zdriver noticed a wall of sell orders at 320 today, and so we can expect resistance retaking the 200 dma. The good news is that once it is retaken, it could become a support level in TSLA's march back up in price. Also interesting is to look at the general slope of the low side of the wedge and extend it outward from 292.63 through the intersections of the more recent red and green days to today's 317.81. If you do so, you get a general feel for the recovery that TSLA has been making over the past three weeks. Notice, too, the upper bollinger band descending to 330.85, which suggests that it would be tough to rise above this number within the next few trading sessions, unless really good news comes forth. The good news is that if data such as VIN numbers spotted in the wild over the coming days continue to support the news that Model 3 bottlenecks are being resolved, continued upward movement of the stock price is indeed likely.

Congratulations, longs, on a good day

Conditions:
* Dow up 160 (0.69%)
* NASDAQ up 72 (1.06%)
* TSLA 317.81, up 9.07 (2.94%)
* TSLA volume 7.2M shares
* Oil 56.97 up 0.55 (0.97%)

 

[Papafox]

Today was a light volume day for TSLA and although shortvolume.com shows relatively light (40ish%) trading belonging to the shorts so far this week, that does not mean that they're behaving themselves. Today the NASDAQ dipped noticeably during the first 30 minutes of trading but then spent the rest of the day recovering. TSLA tried to recover until about 11:30am, but I think with the small volume today shorts were able to engineer a sticky dip. Expect that Friday's volume will be low as well, opening the door to similar mischief. Unless there's negative news, TSLA should find its legs again next week.

Wishing you all a happy Thanksgiving.

Conditions:
* Dow down 65 (0.27%)
* NASDAQ up 5 (0.07%)
* TSLA 312.60, down 5.21 (1.64%)
* TSLA volume 4.9M shares
* Oil 58.06, up 1.23 (2.16%)

 

[Papafox]

Today was a pleasant surprise as good news over Thanksgiving and positive macros prevented manipulation of the SP on low volume. The good news was the release of data regarding the price of the Tesla semi-truck and the deposit price in this Electrek.co article and elsewhere. With prices of $150K-$180K, the Tesla Semi is close enough to the $120K price of an average diesel semi to be cost-advantageous when energy costs, maintenance, and reliability are figured in. The raising of the base reservation price from $5,000 to $20,000 and a full payment of $200,000 for founders editions suggests strong demand and suggests that at some point that the stock price will be elevated when large deposit amounts for the Roadster 2 and the Semi-Truck are revealed. This enticing development elevated the stock on Friday and may have a spillover effect on Monday.

Elevated prices of oil over the past couple of months emphasizes the advantages of electric power for cars and semi-trucks.

For the week, TSLA closed at 315.55, up 0.50 from last Friday's 315.05. Enjoy your weekend.

Conditions:
* Dow up 32 (0.14%)
* NASDAQ up 22 (0.32%)
* TSLA 315.55, up 2.95 (0.94%)
* TSLA volume 3.2M shares
* Oil 58.95, up 0.93 (1.60%)

 

[TrendTrader007]

View attachment 262643
Today was a pleasant surprise as good news over Thanksgiving and positive macros prevented manipulation of the SP on low volume. The good news was the release of data regarding the price of the Tesla semi-truck and the deposit price in this Electrek.co article and elsewhere. With prices of $150K-$180K, the Tesla Semi is close enough to the $120K price of an average diesel semi to be cost-advantageous when energy costs, maintenance, and reliability are figured in. The raising of the base reservation price from $5,000 to $20,000 and a full payment of $200,000 for founders editions suggests strong demand and suggests that at some point that the stock price will be elevated when large deposit amounts for the Roadster 2 and the Semi-Truck are revealed. This enticing development elevated the stock on Friday and may have a spillover effect on Monday.

Elevated prices of oil over the past couple of months emphasizes the advantages of electric power for cars and semi-trucks.

For the week, TSLA closed at 315.55, up 0.50 from last Friday's 315.05. Enjoy your weekend.

Conditions:
* Dow up 32 (0.14%)
* NASDAQ up 22 (0.32%)
* TSLA 315.55, up 2.95 (0.94%)
* TSLA volume 3.2M shares
* Oil 58.95, up 0.93 (1.60%)

Finally! I was wondering what happened to you

 

[Papafox]

Finally! I was wondering what happened to you

Thanks. I'm in month 2 of about 4 months of working full throttle at helping a dear friend solve a health issue quite some distance from home. My posts will sometimes be late in the coming months, but the craziness which is trading TSLA during this time is ironically a real blessing to me as the camaraderie of this online community helps balance the challenges before me.

 

[Papafox]

Today the NASDAQ started low and took a quick dip, which gave the shorts leverage for nudging TSLA down more than $4 soon after open. Alas, whether it was spillover from Thanksgiving's good news or anticipation of the Car of the Year award later this evening, enough buying took place to bring TSLA into the green at the close. Notice the game of bop-the-mole in which it took three tries for TSLA to conquer the red/green transition line.

Although short activity remains rather low (mid 40%s) in recent weeks, it is not absent. Take a look at the past couple weeks of daily trading charts and you can see how regularly TSLA does a mandatory morning dip.

Looking at the technical chart, you can see that TSLA has been up 8 out of the past 11 trading days and it continues to inch upward at a rate that is only slightly higher than the rate at which the 200 day moving average is climbing.

Looking at the short volume today, we see that short trading took a jump up to about 58%, quite a bit higher than typical for the past few weeks. Whether you interpret this jump upward (on a green day!) as more shorts starting to cover or more short-selling in an effort to prevent a green day, the implications are positive for us longs (shorts are getting nervous and covering or it took extra effort to stop TSLA from going green today but it happened anyway).

Conditions:
* Dow up 23 (0.10%)
* NASDAQ down 11 (0.15%)
* TSLA 3167.81, up 1.26 (0.40%)
* TSLA volume 4.5M shares
* Oil 57.92, down 1.03 (1.75%)

 

[neroden]

My condolences; health issues can take up an insane amount of time and dealing with this a great distance from home is even harder.

 

[Papafox]

Today started with yet another mandatory morning dip. You can almost set your watch by these TSLA trading aberrations. Next, TSLA recovered, played a short game of bop-the-mole with shorts trying rather desperately to keep the stock in the red, and then climbed to nearly 320. As 2:00 pm grew nearer, the North Korean dictator with the bad haircut launched a ballistic missile, which cause both the DOW and the NASDAQ to swan dive with a low at 2:00 pm. At 2:07pm, 59,000 shares were purchased within a minute and TSLA was on its way back above 319. A slow decline during the low-volume afternoon hours suggests that shorts may have been walking the stock price down to the close today. Another possible explanation for the weak last two hours of trading is that the broader markets regained their enthusiastic climbing and traders moved money into the more-reliable stocks for benefitting from a big up day for the markets.

The good news is that we see buyers picking up shares on dips, and the slow but relentless upward movement for TSLA continues despite the rather low volume (which aids in manipulations).

Conditions:
* Dow up 256 (1.09%)
* NASDAQ up 34 (0.49%)
* TSLA 317.55, up 0.74 (0.23%)
* TSLA volume 4.9M shares
* Oil 57.67, down 0.44 (0.76%)

 

[Papafox]

www.shortvolume.com showed that shorts traded more than 57% of TSLA for the second day in a row. The marching down of the stock price in the afternoon on no news and low volume may be explained by shorts trying to hold TSLA below 320 in the hopes that bad news or bad macros will arrive in time.

 

[Papafox]

Today's market trading was preceded by two large entities trading 640,000 shares of TSLA before the bell with no real impact on the stock price. A robust 101,000 shares traded hands during the opening minute, with slightly positive effect on the stock (and 91,000 shares traded hands in the final minute). Shortly after the market opened, NASDAQ tech companies took a sizable dip which bottomed out at noon, with TSLA in sync and performing about where you would expect. The NASDAQ closed down 1.27%, Apple down 2.07%, and NVDA down 6.78%. Some investors such as Option Sniper believe some of the NASDAQ high flyers could see a big bounce tomorrow morning.

Here's hoping some of you did some buying as TSLA flirted with 302 momentarily today. Right now, 300 still looks like solid support, with 306 holding for the day as support but not during intra-day trading. Last week, Model 3 deliveries picked up. Let's hope that Elon's previous words about December being a big month hold true. Where this stock goes from here continues to depend upon the Model 3 production ramp up. Once Model 3 ramp up is confirmed, the stock price could move quickly. At some point Elon will let the cat out of the bag regarding Roadster 2 and semi-truck reservations (we will know by the Q4 ER), and the extra cash created by deposits will likely give a boost to the SP at that time.

Conditions:
* Dow up 104 (0.44%)
* NASDAQ down 88 (1.27%)
* TSLA 307.54, down 10.01 (3.15%)
* TSLA volume 8.7M shares
* Oil 57.42, down 0.57 (0.98%)

 

[Papafox]

Today was a big up day for the broader markets with the DOW breaking 24,000 for the first time. Naturally, the TSLA shorts were at work minimizing the bounce from yesterday. Although TSLA was pushing 310 in pre-market trading, a mandatory morning dip (for no apparent reason) pulled TSLA down to 305 before it recovered to 310+. That gain was slowly eroded and for most of the early afternoon a game of bop-the-mole ensued with shorts selling as necessary to keep TSLA below the red/green line. Alas, the broader market climb was relentless and TSLA broke into the green to close up 1.31. With low volume of 4.3 shares traded, TSLA could be easily manipulated today, and it was. I suspect the www.shortvolume.com will continue to show high short activity, as with the rest of this week.

Looking at the past two months of short volume, you can see the majority of TSLA trading was done by shorts in the weeks leading up to the 3Q ER (the percentage of trading done by shorts is shown in a scale on the right side of the chart with 0.6 equalling 60% of trading belonging to shorts). Yesterday, the trading by shorts exceeded 63%, which is very high (nearly 2/3rds of all transactions!). Earlier this week I wondered if the shorts were covering or manipulating, but from looking at today's trading chart, it is apparent they are manipulating. They likely see TSLA at a critical juncture with Model 3 showing signs of ramping up but not yet at a point where investors are comfortable with the output.

Conditions:
* Dow up 332 (1.39%)
* NASDAQ up 50 (0.73%)
* TSLA 308.85, up 1.31 (0.43%)
* TSLA volume 4.3M shares
* Oil 57.37, up 0.07 (0.12%)

 

[Papafox]

Today the broader markets were down, volume was light (which encourages manipulations by the shorts) and the shorts have been trading near-record percentages of TSLA this week. So then, why didn't TSLA fall more than 2.32? We saw the mandatory morning dip (after 108,000 shares traded hands in the first minute). The broader markets bottomed out a little before 11:30am today and started recovering but TSLA did not, due (I suspect) to manipulations by the shorts. This is a classic sticky dip. Don't believe me? Look at the reversal in TSLA trajectory at 3:21pm when the stock was heading higher and 36,000 shares were sold in one minute to reverse that trend. Look at the three times during the day when TSLA dipped below 306, only to immediately bounce higher. We saw 306 holding its ground during this otherwise difficult day. The stock's ability to hold 306 today prompted me to buy a couple J19 leaps. Whether that move turns out to be a good move depends upon the success of the Model 3 ramp, but I strongly suspect that sometime in 1Q18 we are going to see very substantial ramping up on Model 3 (if not sooner) and I think it's a pretty safe bet.

Looking at the technical chart, you can see that the 100 day moving average (blue), 200 day moving average (red), and upper bollinger band (green) are converging in the 320s. The shorts will of course do everything possible to keep TSLA from exceeding these numbers in the coming week. On the other hand, good news is possible that could send us over the top of these numbers and open up the possibility for higher prices. We would need substantial news that Model 3 is ramping up or we would need Elon to mention that 1,000 Roadster 2 Founders Editions have been already reserved (or substantial news about semi-truck orders). All are possible, none are inevitable in the coming week.

For the week, TSLA closed at 306.53, down 9.02 from last Friday's 315.55. Next week, let's see what happens to the macros. The Flynn plea could possibly lead to some negative pull on the macros, but it could also signal that the Russia investigation is nearing an end, which could be a positive thing for the markets. The senate passing the tax bill will be welcomed by the market and is likely. Overall, I suspect macros to be higher next Friday than today. Tesla will also have another week to demonstrate that Model 3 production continues to ramp up, and we're getting that much closer to realizing substantial Model 3 ramp improvements once the automation of pack assembly is successful at the gigafactory. Shorts have much to be concerned about next week. Enjoy your weekend.

Conditions:
* Dow down 41 (0.17%)
* NASDAQ down 26 (0.38%)
* TSLA 306.53, down 2.32 (0.75%)
* TSLA volume 4.3M shares
* Oil 58.35, up 0.95 (1.66%)

 

[TrendTrader007]

View attachment 263991
Today the broader markets were down, volume was light (which encourages manipulations by the shorts) and the shorts have been trading near-record percentages of TSLA this week. So then, why didn't TSLA fall more than 2.32? We saw the mandatory morning dip (after 108,000 shares traded hands in the first minute). The broader markets bottomed out a little before 11:30am today and started recovering but TSLA did not, due (I suspect) to manipulations by the shorts. This is a classic sticky dip. Don't believe me? Look at the reversal in TSLA trajectory at 3:21pm when the stock was heading higher and 36,000 shares were sold in one minute to reverse that trend. Look at the three times during the day when TSLA dipped below 306, only to immediately bounce higher. We saw 306 holding its ground during this otherwise difficult day. The stock's ability to hold 306 today prompted me to buy a couple J19 leaps. Whether that move turns out to be a good move depends upon the success of the Model 3 ramp, but I strongly suspect that sometime in 1Q18 we are going to see very substantial ramping up on Model 3 (if not sooner) and I think it's a pretty safe bet.

For the week, TSLA closed at 306.53, down 9.02 from last Friday's 315.55. Next week, let's see what happens to the macros. The Flynn plea could possibly lead to some negative pull on the macros, but it could also signal that the Russia investigation is nearing an end, which could be a positive thing for the markets. The senate passing the tax bill will be welcomed by the market and is likely. Overall, I suspect macros to be higher next Friday than today. Tesla will also have another week to demonstrate that Model 3 production continues to ramp up, and we're getting that much closer to realizing substantial Model 3 ramp improvements once the automation of pack assembly is successful at the gigafactory. Shorts have much to be concerned about next week. Enjoy your weekend.

Conditions:
* Dow down 41 (0.17%)
* NASDAQ down 26 (0.38%)
* TSLA 306.53, down 2.32 (0.75%)
* TSLA volume 4.3M shares
* Oil 58.35, up 0.95 (1.66%)

Top notch commentary far superior to any gibberish churned out by JPM analysts

 

[Intl Professor]

The Flynn plea could possibly lead to some negative pull on the macros, but it could also signal that the Russia investigation is nearing an end, which could be a positive thing for the markets.

Small quibble. I'm not at all sure the end of the Russia scandal is near, unless Trump fires Mueller or that the tax bill is passed soon and more Republicans feel they can come out against Trump now that their billionaire buddies are happy. In either case the malady lingers on.

But I drift OT again.

 

[erthquake]

Small quibble. I'm not at all sure the end of the Russia scandal is near, unless Trump fires Mueller or that the tax bill is passed soon and more Republicans feel they can come out against Trump now that their billionaire buddies are happy. In either case the malady lingers on.

But I drift OT again.

Read @sethabramson's Twitter thread starting yesterday morning. It's definitely not over. It's only the beginning of the beginning of the end. It's 150 tweets, but it's fascinating and enlightening.

 

[neroden]

I should caution that although the idiots in Wall Street think the worst tax bill in US history is a "positive" for the stock market, it's not at all clear that that will actually be true long-term; as they start doing the analysis of macro response, or after the earnings reports come in next year, they may realize the truth, which is that it's probably very bad for most corporate toplines (average people have less disposable income -> can buy less from corporations). The improvement to the corporate expenses line may not outweigh the drag on the top line. If it passes, it might well kick the economy into a downward spiral and a bear market, with the only outlook for improvement being the explusion of the Republicans and the reversal of their idiot policies.

 

[Papafox]

Today TSLA showed significant strength in a tough trading environment. Factors included:
* Both the Dow and NASDAQ were descending significantly during the afternoon hours
* The NASDAQ closed down more than 1%
* Trading by shorts has been at the upper end of historical percentages (high-50s to mid-60s) for the past week or so
* Volume was relatively low (5.8M shares traded)
* Most of the afternoon was spent in a game of whack-the-mole as shorts tried to return TSLA to the red every time it ventured into the green
* Other high flyer stocks were down considerably today (Nvidia down 5.57%, AAPL down 0.73%, BABA down 2.88%, AMZN down 2.44%)

Take a look at the following daily charts and see how well TSLA resisted following the broader markets down today.

Dow

NASDAQ

|
TSLA

I believe that TSLA would have closed above 306 today if not for the rather steep dip in the broader markets during the final hour of trading today. Looking forward to tomorrow, provided the macros avoid a swan dive and no surprise negative news about TSLA comes forth. TSLA being down a mere 0.43% today is something we should be pleased with.

Conditions:
* Dow up 58 (0.24%)
* NASDAQ down 72 (1.05%)
* TSLA 305.20, down 1.33 (0.43%)
* TSLA volume 5.8M shares
* Oil 57.45, down 0.91 (1.56%)

 

[Papafox]

Here's today's www.shortvolume.com chart of participation by shorts in TSLA trading today. I was expecting the short volume to be high today because with the mandatory morning dip (which was eventually defeated on a Monday) and the game of whack-a-mole shorts needed to do some serious selling to keep TSLA from running up, even on a day when the NASDAQ lost 1%. Perhaps we'll need more news about the Model 3 ramp up before TSLA is ready for its climb, but right now TSLA looks like it has plenty of buyers in the 306 range.

 

[Papafox]

With heavy short activity this week and low volume today, we saw mischief underway with TSLA. During the opening minute, some 200,000 shares traded hands with very little impact on stock price (as usual). This may have been an opportunity for shorts to do additional covering to prepare for more manipulating today. Similarly, various sources indicate that trading was even higher during the final minute of the day, and again, this would be an opportunity for shorts to cover from their manipulations during the day without their covering having much impact on the stock price.

Looking at the ups and downs of the day, TSLA rallied after its red start and reached nearly 308 before being walked down into the red and then recovering from that descent. About 2:15pm today, the NASDAQ started a downhill run, which allowed TSLA shorts to exaggerate the downward movement with our stock in a classic sticky dip on steroids move. In the final 15 minutes of trading shorts apparently tried a dip down to 303, but it was rejected by the market minutes before closing and TSLA recovered most of that dip.

The NASDAQ dip about 2:15pm (shown above) allowed TSLA shorts to engineer a sticky dip on steroids

Considering that shorts have been trading two-thirds of TSLA shares in recent days and today's light volume encouraged manipulations, especially on a down day for the broader markets, TSLA's loss of 1.50 today was rather tame and indicated the market's desires to resist these artificial dips. Each day we are one day closer to Tesla reaching substantial improvement in the automated construction of Model 3 batteries and one day closer to the stock price reacting very positively to the ramp up.

Looking at patterns, you can see by viewing the previous two weeks of daily charts that the vast majority of days have a mandatory morning dip and that quite a few days since shorts have been trading in the high 50- mid 60%s of TSLA, TSLA has seen a push at end of day to bring the stock price down. These are artificial patterns created by short selling and decreases to the stock price will be erased when the next big news results in a TSLA rally.

Conditions:
* Dow down 109 (0.45%)
* NASDAQ down 13 (0.19%)
* TSLA 303.70, down 1.50 (0.49%)
* TSLA volume 4.6M shares
* Oil 57.68, up 0.21 (0.37%)

 

[Papafox]

About 64% of today's (Tuesday's) TSLA trading was done by shorts. Any wonder why we're down $1.50 today?