Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

[Papafox]

50k shares sold at 230.35 at the start of AH today again.

If you're right and they're out of ammo, and if they're buying back ammo right there, could that be a new minimum resistance level? Or, would they sell at a loss in order to push it sub 230?

I think that a sale of 50,000 shares at one time after hours would have a huge effect upon strike price and would be quite expensive for the person initiating the trade. More likely, large transactions we see one or two minutes after close are catch-up transactions that somehow weren't posted in regular hour trading but appear right at the beginning of after-hours trading.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

One ha to remember, that AH doesn't allow market trades. So you cannot dump 50k shares to be sold/bought at market price. You can only enter limit orders that are filled if there are shares matching the other side of your deal by other traders with limit orders. So one cannot directly manipulate the market by dumping a huge amount of shares except if one gets a view of the market depth and dumps the shares at the lowest price that falls in the range, then it'd trigger all the limit orders that are there until it exhausts.

Also, don't think you could sell TSLA at a $100 discount like the 250 shares a while ago, that had to be a misprint or a recognition of a transaction from February for what ever reasons that went on tape now.

 

[Papafox]

Today's trading was influenced by a pre-market announcement of the TSLA-SCTY merger terms. Longs were generally positive about TSLA going into the trading day, as evidenced by pre-market trading in the green. The day turned out to be a transition from the continuous good news of the past few weeks to the realities that the uncertainties of less-than-stellar numbers divulged in the 2Q ER come Wednesday. In early trading, TSLA dropped, both because some longs likely wished to cut their holdings prior to the Q2 ER and also because shorts likely wanted to give some red early in the day to prevent a 4th Super Monday from occurring. Nonetheless, TSLA climbed into the green later in the morning owing to both nervous shorts and longs seeing a good price. Once the rally fell short of another Super Monday performance, though, the stock headed downhill in anticipation of Wednesday's ER.

Although delivery numbers suggest disappointing Q2 numbers in the upcoming ER, the mood of longs is generally upbeat about the remainder of the year and shorts are jittery. Thus, the emotions of these two groups will likely influence TSLA trading this week.

Conditions:
* Dow down 28 (0.15%)
* NASDAQ up 22 (0.43%)
* TSLA 230.01, down 4.75 (2.04%)
* TSLA volume 4.0M shares
* SCTY 24.72, down 1.98 (7.42%)
* News: TSLA and SCTY boards announced plans to merge with a 1 to 0.11 exchange ratio on the stock, which was lighter for SCTY than the previous range, resulting in a drop in the price of SCTY

 

[Papafox]

Today was the day before the Q2 ER, and concerns for the upcoming ER propelled the stock lower, along with reports that major automakers had a weak month of sales. With a lack of deep dips and near recoveries, we cannot blame the dip on mischief by shorts. Rather this was likely longs showing concern about the upcoming ER and with car sales in general. I expected TSLA to bottom out before 220, which has been a strong support level, and it stayed above that level. The most interesting part of the day was the recovery from the 11 am low. I owe this recovery to both the jittery shorts, the smartest ones using this dip to exit, and the relative bullishness of longs.

Conditions:
* Dow down 91 (0.49%)
* NASDAQ down 46 (0.90%)
* TSLA 227.2, down 2.81 (1.22%)
* TSLA volume 3.9M shares
* SCTY 24.42, down 0.30 (1.21%)

 

[Papafox]

Here's the chart from Q2 ER day. Notice the lack of direction being shown by the trading. Any time the stock price is bouncing between red and green in a narrow band I become suspicious of manipulation by shorts. Though some individuals suggested TSLA was influenced by the broader markets today, if you take a look you will see the NASDAQ in a slow climb throughout the day and TSLA running sideways for a couple hours before dipping down. I think the story today was mostly longs and shorts positioning for the ER.

Once the ER letter came out, look at the confusion of the market trying to determine if this was a good ER or not. Notice the deep drop in the final few minutes of after-hours trading,which may be shorts trying to put a negative spin on the ER. My impression is that we longs have weathered this storm and any dip will be small, and we may even see a positive day tomorrow. The more important point is that this potentially-negative catalyst that has been hanging over our heads is now gone, and once TSLA starts heading up, there's little reason for shorts to retain confidence, given the guidance for production during the final half of the year.

Conditions:
* Dow up 41 (0.23%)
* NASDAQ up 22 (0.43%)
* TSLA 225.79, down 1.41 (0.62%)
* TSLA volume 3.9M shares
* SCTY 24.30, down 0.12 (0.49%)

 

[Papafox]

On the day after 2Q ER day, TSLA shook off the ER's cloud of concern and reclaimed 230. Not surprisingly, we saw TSLA dip more than $3 shortly after regular hours began (and I used this dip to buy back a few calls), as shorts threw in a feeble effort to define the ER as negative. TSLA then went slightly green and you can see a tug of war between bears and bulls until about 1:30 pm when TSLA reclaimed its bullish manners and reclaimed 230 as well.

• At this point, there's little reason for shorts to remain in TSLA. The big hope, the 2Q ER, produced low numbers but attractive guidance and the guidance won out. Elon provided enough info in the ER so that we understand TSLA has a plan to generate needed demand, production will hit 2400 units/wk by year end, and we can expect 50,000 vehicles in Q3 and Q4 combined, with improving margins. Model 3 is on track, as is the gigafactory.

I would consider today as a prelude to an exit by substantial numbers of shorts.

Conditions:
* Dow down 3 (0.02%)
* NASDAQ up 7 (0.13%)
* TSLA 230.61, up 4.82 (2.13%)
* TSLA volume 4.1M shares
* SCTY 24.38, up 0.08 (0.33%)

 

[kenliles]

Added J18 $300 LEAPS at the Papafaux-morning-dip $222
(pun intended)
Thx Papa for consistent, diminutively informative posts

p.s.
All SCTY arbitrage shares converted to TSLA earlier when new ratio announced. Now full up TSLA
- with 20% of position leveraged to J18 LEAPS ($300s and $400s)

 

[Papafox]

Added J18 $300 LEAPS at the Papafaux-morning-dip $222
(pun intended)
Thx Papa for consistent, diminutively informative posts

p.s.
All SCTY arbitrage shares converted to TSLA earlier when new ratio announced. Now full up TSLA
- with 20% of position leveraged to J18 LEAPS ($300s and $400s)

My pleasure, Ken. I had sold some J17s prior to the Q2 ER and bought them back on the opening dip at a nice discount. It's mighty swell of the shorts to give discounts to those of us who can read the tea leaves ; )

 

[Papafox]

Yesterday was a day in which TSLA broke from a negative trading direction into a formidable climb by end of day. Usually, when you see a transition from days of negative trading to a mid-day transition into positive trading, the following trading day will be positive (see previous examples in this thread). Thus, members of this forum were excited about today and the shorts were on guard for such a positive day and took measures to prevent it. You can see the drop right after opening, followed by a climb, followed by a deep drop that was immediately neutralized. Then came another deep drop that was mostly neutralized. These are classic signs of manipulation by shorts. By end of day, TSLA had recovered into the green but was beaten down before the close. All of these are classic signs that TSLA would have gone higher today without intervention by the shorts. The combination of big macro gains today and following a transition-to-green day necessitated that the shorts use plenty of horsepower today to keep TSLA from running up. Such an effort is unsustainable for the shorts now, especially with short-shares still in short supply.

The good news is that TSLA closed at over 230, which potentially sets us up for another "super Monday". It's possible that Monday amateur-hour buying will trigger another fearful exit by shorts. It might not happen because of macros or because of strategic selling near opening by shorts, but it could happen.


Conditions:
* Dow up 191 (1.04%)
* NASDAQ up 55 (1.06%)
* TSLA 230.03, down 0.58 (0.25%)
* TSLA volume 3.2M shares
* SCTY 24.79, up 0.41 (1.68%)

 

[neroden]

p.s.
All SCTY arbitrage shares converted to TSLA earlier when new ratio announced

Interesting choice. I'm still very heavy on SCTY in anticipation of the merger (I still think the merger is going to happen), mostly in the form of selling puts, which either gets me a better price than outright ownership, or gets me free money.

The arbitrage gap is at 2.1% on the shares, but still significantly larger on the put options (though it's shrinking pretty much every day). I'm sort of wondering when the differential in the pricing of SCTY vs. TSLA options will disappear; maybe not until after the vote.

 

[kenliles]

Interesting choice. I'm still very heavy on SCTY in anticipation of the merger (I still think the merger is going to happen), mostly in the form of selling puts, which either gets me a better price than outright ownership, or gets me free money.

The arbitrage gap is at 2.1% on the shares, but still significantly larger on the put options (though it's shrinking pretty much every day). I'm sort of wondering when the differential in the pricing of SCTY vs. TSLA options will disappear; maybe not until after the vote.

Yeah it was a close call, but immediately after the announcement the ratio matched the .110 announced. I estimated a growing doubt thru closing might produce a slight gap, so decided to pull the lever; and since I was early on the TSLA to SCTY initial conversion when arbitrage was 12-15 points (original ratio), I was ok even with the lower final ratio.

There's no doubt it will go thru. The wording sounds like the .110 ratio is fixed, though it's possible that ratio is specified as defined by the 5 previous days of SP and the $ amount is actually the fix- I don't think so, but the wording isn't 100%- another reason I decided to just move to all TSLA.

I suspect you'll come out better than my move letting it convert at closing- besides you'll save the trade commissions! All the best...

 

[Papafox]

Looks like the announced payment by TSLA of $411 million for retiring 2018 debt will likely take a toll on trading come Monday, which is a shame because I think we were seeing a setup for a positive Monday.

 

[Papafox]

If there's one number to look at today, it's the volume. TSLA traded at about half the volume of a normal day, pretty much indicating that nobody is in a big hurry to get into, or out of TSLA, at this point. Longs and shorts have placed their bets, longs are waiting for the 3rd and 4th quarter production numbers to do their magic and shorts are hoping for anything bad to happen, but with 2Q ER now out of the way, there's nothing definite on the radar screen. I'd say we're in a 220-230 trading range momentarily, but that range can easily be pushed up to 235 or higher with any type of positive news or with the passage of time. Time is now working in favor of the longs because of the possibility of share recalls and the improved production numbers we'll see in Q3 and Q4.

Pre-market trading reflected the after-market trading of Friday, with a slump due to the $411 Million early repay issue. The amateur hour brought the usual buying pressure with TSLA coming close to the green, but now quite. The deep dip you see about 10:45am looks like strategic short selling because it was substantially neutralized right away. As 2:00pm approached, a definite upward trend was evident. Then things turned negative, and I suspect the reason for the negativity was that volume was so light that creative short selling could yield very nice reductions in market price for not much money. Many minutes during the afternoon we saw only 500 shares trading during that minute. The big drop near the end of the day either came from some news (not sure what) causing longs to shed shares or possibly from a push to send TSLA lower through short selling. The shorts have an interest in keeping TSLA below the 229.8 pivot point that some technical traders are talking about.


Conditions:
* Dow down 14 (0.08%)
* NASDAQ down 8 (0.15%)
* TSLA 226.16, down 3.87 (1.68%)
* TSLA volume 2.2M shares
* SCTY 24,32, down 0.47 (1.90%)

 

[Papafox]

Today TSLA investors shrugged off the $3 decline in low-volume, after-hours trading of yesterday and lifted the stock back above $230, before it settled down another point. Volume remains light. Tesla tends to trade well in a slightly-up broader-market environment, such as what we saw today.

Conditions:
* Dow up 4 (0.02%)
* NASDAQ up 12 (0.24%)
* TSLA 229.08, up 2.92 (1.29%)
* TSLA volume 2.2M shares
* SCTY 24.55, up 0.23 (0.95%)
* News: SCTY announced 2Q ER after hours today. SCTY reported a somewhat smaller loss than anticipated by analysts

 

[Papafox]

Today TSLA basically lost what it gained yesterday, and a tiny bit more. The broader markets were down and the FUD was slinging, with CNBC doing its best to make the minor China autopilot accident of last week a big deal. More importantly, though, solar companies saw huge stock losses for the most part today, with one losing 30%. Concern about the sector may have spilled over into concerns about the value of adding SCTY to TSLA. Potential good news? Baird reiterated its 338-target buy recommendation, and the solar stock slump may have brought more shorts back into TSLA today (their departures in the future will raise the SP).

Another important point is to take a look at the new-vertical climb TSLA experienced yesterday, right after opening. Whenever TSLA starts heading up, some shorts panic-sell and we see such exaggerated movements. Today, with a negative outlook for the day, TSLA tended lower, but look at the trading and you don't see panic being shown by the longs. Overall, the longs remain calmer than the shorts during these ambiguous times.

* Dow down 37 (0.20%)
* NASDAQ down 21 (0.40%)
* TSLA 225.65, down 3.43 (1.50%)
* TSLA volume 2.3M shares
* SCTY 24.38, down 0.17 (0.69%)

 

[Papafox]

Yawn, this was a really low volume day. Shorts could easily neutralize the five excursions into the green with minimal selling. Looks like we either need news or people coming back from summer vacation before we leave the duldrums.

Conditions:
* Dow up 118 (0.64%)
* NASDAQ up 24 (0.46%)
* TSLA 224.91, down 0.74 (0.33%)
* TSLA volume 1.7M shares
* SCTY 24.03, down 0.35 (1.44%)
* News: Electrek posted a story that they have a source who spelled out the hardware that will be in Autopilot 2.0. With such stories surfacing, Tesla will need to roll out AP 2.0 hardware fairly soon in order to avoid further fence-sitting by potential buyers. An announcement of AP 2.0 hardware being installed on vehicles will likely be quite a nice catalyst because it will be a big demand creator and remove some of the concerns whether Tesla can meet 2016 delivery guidance.

 

[Papafox]

On yet another day with very light trading, TSLA managed a gain. Max pain stood at 225 and it looked like the market makers could drag TSLA right where they wanted, but in the final minutes of trading TSLA jumped up more than half a point. Notice that TSLA closed the regular trading session with a nice flurry of buying and did well in after-hours trading as well. In recent weeks, TSLA has stormed upward during the first hour of trading on three Mondays. Might we have another super Monday ahead? There's hints of good news (100kwh battery progress and Autopilot 2.0 hardware predictions of "sooner than you think" from Electrek, so perhaps we're primed for another nice Monday morning. Conditions when TSLA does well is slight positive broader market performance (but not overpoweringly high performance), and a hint on Friday that upward momentum is ready to take hold of the stock for a few days. Hmm. Don't be surprised to see the shorts induce a dip into the red shortly after Monday's regular hours opening as a defensive measure.

Conditions:
* Dow down 37 (0.20%)
* NASDAQ up 5 (0.09%)
* TSLA 225.61, up 0.70 (0.31%)
* TSLA volume 1.8M shares
* SCTY 23.7, down 0.33 (1.37%)

 

[Papafox]

This was a crazy day. I expected an amateur hour buying spree and wasn't disappointed with the spurt. This makes 4 out of 6 recent Mondays having a nice first-hour bump up. As with the other upward bursts, it was led by a few longs buying in, but mostly by nervous shorts, covering their shorts. I wasn't at all sure what would happen in the afternoon, since it is mighty easy for shorts to pull the SP down with the anemic volume of these August afternoons. Unfortunately, there wasn't good enough news to sustain the rise, and the SP slowly drifted down to the red. A f*re in France and CNBC giving national TV coverage to Mark Spiegel of all people contributed to the afternoon's decline.

Much of today's morning rise can be attributed to the newfound fear that shorts have of Monday mornings. Unfortunately, today's rise and then fall may cure that fear of Monday mornings for a while. Really, it does normally take some honest news to pull TSLA higher and keep it higher, in most cases. We had no good news to hold us higher, just rumors and rumblings. Consequently, once the morning rise had peaked, traders had little interest to stay in Tesla any longer today, and some took money to speculate on other stocks which were rising with the broad market gains.

So, where does today leave us? TSLA still looks good for second half of this year, and longs have shown no tendency to flee the stock. We continue to trade in the 220-230 range with solid support at 220 while awaiting word that the important things are still on track (50,000 deliveries in 2nd half of year, gigafactory and Model 3 still on schedule). We'll likely need news to break 230 and rise higher (100kwh battery announced, AP 2.0 hardware being installed, etc.), and so we will move up and down within the range until news forces the next move.

In the meantime, use the up and down trading within the 220-230 range to best advantage. I sold 4 J17 ITM calls as SP peaked this morning and I will convert the proceeds to Mar17 or J18 calls of the same strike when/if the SP falls a few points lower than today's close.

Conditions:
* Dow up 60 (0.32%)
* NASDAQ up 29 (0.56%)
* TSLA 225.59, down 0.02 (0.01%)
* TSLA volume 2M shares
* SCTY 23.99, up 0.29 (1.22%)

 

[Papafox]

Today was the inevitable Tesla Tuesday follow a Monday with a runup and a rundown, especially with a down broader market, today. What's noticeable are the rather deep downward dips with immediate near-recoveries. My "Handbook for Understanding the Cunning Minds of the Shorts" says these jabs and near recoveries are selling events by shorts in order to depress the SP. It worked somewhat, but longs are not inclined to head for the exits, and so we only see a minor price adjustment. With strong support at 220, you can expect to see a reversal some time this week as we start working our way back up again through the 220-230 range. Make yourself comfortable, bring a pillow, we'll be here until some news pulls us one way or the other.

Conditions:
* Dow down 84 0.45%)
* NASDAQ down 35 (0.66%)
* TSLA 223.61, down 1.98 (0.88%)
* TSLA volume 2.3M shares
* SCTY 23.76, down 0.23 (0.95%)

 

[Papafox]

After a Tesla Tuesday where we lost a dollar and some change on the SP, today was undecided trading. If the broader markets perk up tomorrow, I suspect we'll enjoy a slight up day. Again, we are trading in the 220-230 range until some real news allows us to move one way or the other. Volume remains light because shorts can't/won't enter new positions and longs are hanging tight, looking towards a more promising 2nd half of 2016 and a dynamic 2017.

Conditions:
* Dow up 22 (0.12%)
* NASDAQ up 2 (0.03%)
* TSLA , down 0.37 (0.17%)
* TSLA volume 1.8M shares
*SCTY 23.59, down 0.17 (0.72%)