I spoke with a rep at the SC and she kindly explained how the delivery queue works. I didn't see this elsewhere in the forum so I thought I'd share.
I live in San Francisco, CA and I'm waiting for my M3 LR that I ordered back in June, over 6 weeks ago. The original delivery estimate was 8-12 weeks, then 4-6, then 1-2, then I got the call, can I pick it up tomorrow? No, I wasn't available and I stupidly declined delivery and rescheduled. Then my delivery estimate went back to 4-6 weeks. Now it's 5-10 weeks and Tesla said on their investor call 7/26 that the global chip shortages will impact deliveries in Q3-Q4. Great.
I call the nice lady and say I want a Tesla now, give me anything you have, even if the color's s*** brown. She laughed and said they don't have any. She said people have been waiting since April 2021 for a car and still don't have delivery now and it's almost August. Then, the magic was revealed.
Tesla prioritizes delivery based on:
1) Order date
2) Date you completed the account paperwork (insurance etc.)
3) Your position in the queue for your specific build of the car (M3 SR vs M3 LR vs M3P etc.)
Here's the fun bit: when you decline delivery, you reset your position in the queue. If you've ordered a popular build, that can destroy your delivery time because it puts you back at the end of the queue. Factory production is apparently straight to consumer; these cars still sell like hot cakes despite all the build quality issues.
There's another magic trick: there's a "I'll take anything!" flag they can set on your account so that if someone declines delivery, even if it doesn't match your specs, they'll harvest lucky souls from that anything-goes queue and you could get a call.
I almost bought a Chevy Bolt EV until I drove it and realized it was as cheap a ride as everyone says. The suspension is awful.
I'm anxiously awaiting delivery so I can see the Tesla Model 3 wonderfully misaligned panels, doors that won't close, and scratched hubcaps for myself. Be nice, this isn't reddit.