TMC is an independent, primarily volunteer organization that relies on ad revenue to cover its operating costs. Please consider whitelisting TMC on your ad blocker and becoming a Supporting Member. For more info: Support TMC

Delivery Timeline Math

Discussion in 'Model 3: Ordering, Production, Delivery' started by meekju1339, Jun 11, 2018.

  1. meekju1339

    meekju1339 New Member

    Joined:
    Jun 11, 2018
    Messages:
    3
    Location:
    Ontario
    Thought id do some quick math today about delivery timelines and such to see if I can get anywhere with it. It is difficult to do without any confirmed numbers but I gave it a shot anyways.

    Lets assume there are 450,000 reservations that have not configured today.
    Out of those 450k, approx 225k should be north America and 225k are Europe and Asia which are not being delivered right now.

    Out of those 225k that are north American, I thought id try and find out how many of those are Canadian. I looked up general car sales per year in Canada vs the US and it seems as though the US is always 10 times Canadian numbers. This would mean that it is possible that 202,500 of those are US reservations and 22,500 of those are Canadian.

    Due to the facts about the US federal tax credit, it seems like Canada got a rather large batch of RWD M3's in June to stop US from hitting 200k before the 3rd quarter.

    In canada, I read somewhere that 79% of people are looking to get an AWD variant due to the weather we have up here. I thought I would guess the percentage of people out of those 22,500 that are looking for each model:

    SR RWD = 10%
    SR AWD = 39.5%
    LR RWD = 5%
    LR AWD = 39.5%
    LR AWD P= 5%

    Again these are just guesses that I had based on the 79% AWD figure that I read somewhere for Canada.

    Based on those guesses, that would mean that between the LR AWD and LR AWD P, that would be about 44.5 percent of people in Canada which is just over 10K orders.

    I put my reservation in on June 21st 2017. This is well behind most of you in line reservation holders unfortunately. The thing that I don't understand is within the last few weeks, most of the Canadians I know got bumped from Late 2018 to Mid 2018 for AWD delivery. Even based on my numbers alone, I am probably in the last 25% of reservations in those 10K orders. That means that even if they completely ignored the US, assuming their 5k/month delivery's keep up, I still wouldn't be able to get delivery until the end of august which is not Mid 2018. But the real question is that clearly they will not ignore the US and instead they will prioritize them due to the federal tax credit, so surely this will put me at least into Jan or Feb of 2019 minimum.

    Although this sucks, I am not complaining about this because I was the one who waited so late to reserve so its my fault. Why would Tesla bother pushing my delivery estimate of AWD up from late 2018 to mid 2018 when it literally seems impossible for them to do? I would assume that someone at Tesla did some sort of math to estimate peoples delivery dates. I understand that there are things that can happen and change things drastically, but do you guys really think it was physically possible for them to get me my AWD for "Mid 2018"?

    The only other possible solution I can think of is maybe a *sugar* ton of people actually cancelled their orders and instead of there being 450k total there is 100k total. I really doubt that because I just see more and more people with positive reviews of their cars so typically that keeps people waiting to get their own golden nugget one day.

    Anyways I'm not hating on Tesla in any way, Im just a typical model 3 fan who refreshes my screen every 10 mins in the hopes of being able to configure my AWD but because I can't yet I get bored and try to calculate stuff.

    Let me know what you guys think about this.
     
  2. dano9258

    dano9258 Member

    Joined:
    Jan 28, 2018
    Messages:
    173
    Location:
    Las Vegas, NV
    They say 25% of reservations have been cancelled. I placed one in Jan 18 and another may 18. In that time only rougly 40,000 more appear to be made based on the numbering. So I think cancellations are out doing new reservations by a large margin now. People are getting sick of waiting and delays. Also, more car manufacturers are coming out with evs to compete. Fuethermore it has been said that the LR current version will be 100% fullfilled by year end. So if you are worried just get that version.
     
  3. meekju1339

    meekju1339 New Member

    Joined:
    Jun 11, 2018
    Messages:
    3
    Location:
    Ontario
    Even if 25% of reservations were cancelled, its still not possible to get anywhere near mid 2018 with those numbers. But yeah I've been thinking about the RWD LR version but here in Canada I feel like I might need the AWD with some of the heavy snow we get. Ive heard that the RWD is not bad in the snow but if I'm already spending that much on a vehicle I want to make sure its great in all situations even in the middle of a snowstorm. I do a lot of snowboarding in the winter and I'm worried that some of the hilly roads I might not make it up with the RWD.
     
  4. sitter_k

    sitter_k Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 23, 2014
    Messages:
    1,026
    Location:
    Toronto (GTA)
    I just want Tesla to open up AWD for Canadians. I don't care if mid 2018 gets delivered late 2018. At least my price and rebate will be locked in.
     
    • Like x 1
  5. meekju1339

    meekju1339 New Member

    Joined:
    Jun 11, 2018
    Messages:
    3
    Location:
    Ontario
    Yeah I agree. All they have to do to get my money is open up my configuration. I don't mind paying the 2500 or whatever it is now and not getting it for even 6 months. If we pay now I think we are still okay for the incentive.
     
  6. sitter_k

    sitter_k Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 23, 2014
    Messages:
    1,026
    Location:
    Toronto (GTA)
    I might cave soon, way too much uncertainty. With Trump tariffs, Canadian dollar, eliminating evip and Tesla crossing 200 deliveries in the US.
     

Share This Page

  • About Us

    Formed in 2006, Tesla Motors Club (TMC) was the first independent online Tesla community. Today it remains the largest and most dynamic community of Tesla enthusiasts. Learn more.
  • Do you value your experience at TMC? Consider becoming a Supporting Member of Tesla Motors Club. As a thank you for your contribution, you'll get nearly no ads in the Community and Groups sections. Additional perks are available depending on the level of contribution. Please visit the Account Upgrades page for more details.


    SUPPORT TMC