Devils advocating...from someone who shorted TSLA

[stainlesssteel]

...Does anyone have comparison well to road of an electric car to a ICE? It would be nice if we had an archived article we can reference with 20 different independent articles by reputable institutions....

Tesla's original 2006 paper, with detailed well-to-wheel efficiency calculations:

The 21st Century Electric Car, Martin Eberhard and Marc Tarpenning, Tesla Motors Inc., Wednesday, July 19, 2006

http://www.evworld.com/library/Tesla_21centuryEV.pdf

Data from this paper is still used as of Jun2013 on the Tesla Motors website:

Energy Efficiency of Tesla Electric Vehicles | Tesla Motors

 

[Hasse]

There is a lot of resistance against the Model S and EV's in general in Germany. With its big car manufacturers leaning completely on ICE's (despite of the half-hearted attempts from Audi and BMW to develop cars with electric propulsion) the German car industry sees the danger that lies in an EV like the Model S that has hardly any objections anymore: beautiful, superb handling, comfort, long range (and with supercharging indefinite range). So they fight it.

That's why the German chancellor Angela Merkel, despite here lip service to the EV-cause by saying there should be a million EV's on the road in Germany in 2020, doesn't actually do anything to stimulate them. It's the ICE-car lobby that stops her. The German roofs are full of solar panels because this was stimulated by the government. Why? Not just for the environment, but because the German solar industry profits from it. With EV's the German car industry at the moment has nothing to gain, only to lose. And that's why Germany and other car producing countries like Italy are dragging their feet, whereas countries without car industries like Norway and The Netherlands are popularizing the EV.

Wouldn't surprise me if 'Realist' is working for one of the big German carmakers and is just trolling because he realizes what a huge competitor the Model S is for the products of his lazy employer.

Well put. Agree completely and in line with what I wrote earlier about subsidies.

 

[fastcars]

EV is the future (natural-gas gas hybrid. For that matter, it sounds good), but again, it is not there yet.

Tesla and Elon took lot of pain to build Model S and price tag is not for everyone. Gen III will change market to true EV, but we have many years in between.

If this guy works for oil company or whatever they can reduce the price of oil (just assuming) to disturb the momentum of EV altogether.

If oil price goes down to $2.75 hybrid, which will push the mileage way up with cost to the car in mass production range.

In short many things can change EV market (need 5 to 7 years) i.e. economy or oil price or alternative technology (natural gas.. ASIA and Russia using CNG vehicle)

 

[Hasse]

EV is the future (natural-gas gas hybrid. For that matter, it sounds good), but again, it is not there yet.

In short many things can change EV market (need 5 to 7 years) i.e. economy or oil price or alternative technology (natural gas.. ASIA and Russia using CNG vehicle)

Natural gas, in the form of LNG, most likely has a future for some vehicles, just not cars. This is what is happening in my neighbourhood:
Viking Line's Viking Grace Passenger Ferry - Ship Technology

(Viking Grace has now been running daily traffic for six months)

 

[fastcars]

I am not interested in spreading any lies, but alternate fuel-cell technology is also promising. Again, if Honda, Toyota, and Hyundai line up to make these cars it will be interesting options for average consumers.

http://autos.yahoo.com/news/breakth...ses-futuristic-cars-affordable-180000979.html

 

[raymond]

Wouldn't surprise me if 'Realist' is working for one of the big German carmakers and is just trolling because he realizes what a huge competitor the Model S is for the products of his lazy employer.

Remember Hanlon: Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity. :smile:

It's a mindset thing. I'm almost certain that Realist thinks he's right and we are all fools. There's no use denying, only time will tell.

- - - Updated - - -

This is what is happening in my neighbourhood:

But then again you live in a very peculiar neighbourhood! I love it when I find out about people living in the weirdest places. Tack!

 

[JRP3]

I am not interested in spreading any lies, but alternate fuel-cell technology is also promising. Again, if Honda, Toyota, and Hyundai line up to make these cars it will be interesting options for average consumers.

http://autos.yahoo.com/news/breakth...ses-futuristic-cars-affordable-180000979.html

Since there is effectively no place to fuel these cars and you can't do it at home I doubt they will be much of an option at all.

 

[techmaven]

Based on testing, Tesla expects the battery to retain approximately 70% of its initial capacity after seven years or 100,000 miles (160,000 km).

Battery degradation, replacement cost $22.5k. Roadster owners please speak up. - Page 3

And techmaven: I guess the guys at Toyota are idiots since they are also using Panasonic cells at much narrower charging Levels.

In 2006 and 2007, Tesla did make statements similar to what you posted about the Roadster battery pack. However, it has been 5 to 6 years since then and several things have changed. First, the degradation levels in actual use of the Roadster point to better performance than what was described by Tesla. That's good, as it is apparent that Tesla was more conservative in their outlook. Second, the Model S is built with newer batteries and newer battery management system. Therefore, the lifespan we are likely to see is far superior to the Roadster's pack. Your comment was applicable to the Model S, as that is the current model being sold by Tesla - and your comment was flat out silly to definitely state a calendar lifespan for the battery pack rather than a distance (and at some distant point, calendar life).

As for Toyota, which Toyota vehicle are you talking about? The RAV4 EV generation 2 uses a Tesla built power train. The Prius models initially did not use lithium ion at all. Do you have specifics? Even if Toyota used a narrower charging level for the batteries they are getting from Panasonic, that by itself doesn't mean anything. Are you talking about a BEV? A series plug-in hybrid? A "standard" Prius with a very small pack used primarily for capturing regen? These all have different duty cycles and therefore different stresses on the battery pack. Also, Panasonic makes any number of lithium ion batteries will all sorts of different chemistries. One lithium ion battery is not the same as another. Finally, Tesla Model S owners can choose their charging levels, so your statement is fundamentally misleading.

I've provided a number of sources - mostly academic papers. You have neglected to provide even one source and/or calculation for your original 7 year lifespan comment.

 

[jomo25]

Plus, when it comes to management of a Lithium ion battery, yes, I would consider Toyota folks relative idiots when compared to Tesla folks.

 

[JRP3]

In case someone didn't notice "Realist" has been banned. So don't expect him to provide any further data, not that he had any.

 

[blakegallagher]

I think the price of oil will be falling dramatically over the next few years... With production due to increased access to shale formations increasing at insane rates and Electric Car sales growing at rates that will very soon start showing a measurable demand drop from the US. It is hard for me to imagine that they will stay at the prices they are now. I dont know if the data was bogus but I have heard that the US will be outproducing Saudi in like 2020 and that they recently "found" shale deposits in Australia that has more oil than Saudi ... even if these were bogus news articles with supply spiking so heavily and demand getting ready to drop I think it is a recipe for cheaper gas.




.... To clarify I dont think gas dropping to half the current levels would threaten TSLA's success.

 

[serkol]

I think the price of oil will be falling dramatically over the next few years... With production due to increased access to shale formations increasing at insane rates and Electric Car sales growing at rates that will very soon start showing a measurable demand drop from the US. It is hard for me to imagine that they will stay at the prices they are now. I dont know if the data was bogus but I have heard that the US will be outproducing Saudi in like 2020 and that they recently "found" shale deposits in Australia that has more oil than Saudi ... even if these were bogus news articles with supply spiking so heavily and demand getting ready to drop I think it is a recipe for cheaper gas.
.... To clarify I dont think gas dropping to half the current levels would threaten TSLA's success.

Yeah, right, let's burn all those carbohydrates that were buried for millions of years, and look what happens to the atmosphere.

I think that governments in all countries are quickly realizing that there must be draconian measures for reducing CO2 output. I believe that if oil prices go down a lot, then governments all over the world (including USA) will do something to keep gas prices relatively high. Ideally that could be carbon tax, but it could be something else. These measures may be unpopular, but I think that governments already see where we are going, and they are ready for unpopular measures.

 

[blakegallagher]

That would be a real winner for society .... prices would stay similar to where they are now but there would be a lot of extra revenue that hopefully would be spent well by governments around the world ... on solar and battery tech hopefully

 

[Eberhard]

In case someone didn't notice "Realist" has been banned. So don't expect him to provide any further data, not that he had any.

I dont understand why "Realist" has be banned. His discussion gave more positive results for the performance of the roadsters battery pack as originally assumed.
There was many positive feedback to fight against "Realist" and his short position.

best

eberhard

who received today his VIN 14983 for his european P85+

 

[richkae]

I think the price of oil will be falling dramatically over the next few years... With production due to increased access to shale formations increasing at insane rates and Electric Car sales growing at rates that will very soon start showing a measurable demand drop from the US. It is hard for me to imagine that they will stay at the prices they are now. I dont know if the data was bogus but I have heard that the US will be outproducing Saudi in like 2020 and that they recently "found" shale deposits in Australia that has more oil than Saudi ... even if these were bogus news articles with supply spiking so heavily and demand getting ready to drop I think it is a recipe for cheaper gas.




.... To clarify I dont think gas dropping to half the current levels would threaten TSLA's success.

There are about 250 million passenger vehicles in the US and 14 million new ones sold each year. About 50 or 60 thousand EVs and PHEVs will sell in the US this year best case. That is 0.4% It is not going to make a measurable dent in US gasoline consumption. Even if EV/PHEV sales double every year for the next 5 years, it still wont make much of a dent.

Look at this chart of world oil consumption, the numbers up to and including 2012 are from the EIA, the numbers after are simple math projection from the 2000-2012 trend:

Shale oil has a *lot* of work to do to just keep up with the growth in demand from everywhere outside europe and north america.

 

[blakegallagher]

the same articles I saw showed shale oil representing more oil in 2020 then all of the current conventional oil sources .... if that is true and this demand graph is true it still should cause prices to plummet ....of course if prices start dropping that will slow down development of the shale oil. The next few years should be interesting ... with the most fuel efficient cars in history being sold and 12 percent of cars being sold (.4 percent doubled for five years) being pure electric seems like it would make a huge difference ... heres to hoping electric car sales double every year

edit: my apologies for using pseudo data from graphs I can not link lol ....

 

[Norbert]

the same articles I saw showed shale oil representing more oil in 2020 then all of the current conventional oil sources .... if that is true and this demand graph is true it still should cause prices to plummet ....of course if prices start dropping that will slow down development of the shale oil. The next few years should be interesting ... with the most fuel efficient cars in history being sold and 12 percent of cars being sold (.4 percent doubled for five years) being pure electric seems like it would make a huge difference ... heres to hoping electric car sales double every year

edit: my apologies for using pseudo data from graphs I can not link lol ....

OTOH I read that some of those estimates are vast exaggerations, since (some of them) don't fully consider the difficulties and expenses of extracting the oil from various different concentrations.

2020 isn't that far away. Why don't you post some precise numbers (including the estimated price or cost for those amounts) and post them here. So that in 2020 we'll have a reference to compare against.

(Or in two years we can check if the predictions are being changed.)

 

[JRP3]

I dont understand why "Realist" has be banned. His discussion gave more positive results for the performance of the roadsters battery pack as originally assumed.
There was many positive feedback to fight against "Realist" and his short position.

He was still a troll spouting nonsense in almost every one of his posts. No good reason to put up with that.

 

[blakegallagher]

OTOH I read that some of those estimates are vast exaggerations, since (some of them) don't fully consider the difficulties and expenses of extracting the oil from various different concentrations.

2020 isn't that far away. Why don't you post some precise numbers (including the estimated price or cost for those amounts) and post them here. So that in 2020 we'll have a reference to compare against.

(Or in two years we can check if the predictions are being changed.)

Yea I figured as much .... I don't trust any articles I read these days without cross referencing ... I will see if I can dig up that article on that shale oil soon.

 

[gameon]

I think the price of oil will be falling dramatically over the next few years... With production due to increased access to shale formations increasing at insane rates and Electric Car sales growing at rates that will very soon start showing a measurable demand drop from the US. It is hard for me to imagine that they will stay at the prices they are now. I dont know if the data was bogus but I have heard that the US will be outproducing Saudi in like 2020 and that they recently "found" shale deposits in Australia that has more oil than Saudi ... even if these were bogus news articles with supply spiking so heavily and demand getting ready to drop I think it is a recipe for cheaper gas.




.... To clarify I dont think gas dropping to half the current levels would threaten TSLA's success.

Even they found a lot of oil in CA but environment production agency has a pretty high standard in California. They are going to drill at slowly to measure the impact but not heard what happen after initial trials.