Devils advocating...from someone who shorted TSLA

[blakegallagher]

Could not find original Article but I know it stated that the oil In Australia would come to market very quickly. Here is a counter argument to that. It says that due to lack of infrastructure (pipelines) It will take a lot longer to get these fields developed.

Cookies must be enabled. | The Australian

 

[Citizen-T]

Realist said he's been short from $91 right? Must be hurting today.

 

[CyberDutchie]

Even they found a lot of oil in CA but environment production agency has a pretty high standard in California. They are going to drill at slowly to measure the impact but not heard what happen after initial trials.

Oil prices have to stay high for shale oil to work as cost of extraction is so high. As soon as oil drops to below $80 barrel, shale development will stall. But the oil companies won't let that happen, so price of oil will never go down. They are all about making massive profits, just look at which companies are the #2, #3, and #4 on Fortune 100.

 

[ShortSlaver]

Realist said he's been short from $91 right? Must be hurting today.

Yes. Hasn't show his face around here lately either.

 

[Citizen-T]

Yes. Hasn't show his face around here lately either.

Rumor has it he is on vacation with Steph for a while.

 

[Norse]

Oil prices have to stay high for shale oil to work as cost of extraction is so high. As soon as oil drops to below $80 barrel, shale development will stall. But the oil companies won't let that happen, so price of oil will never go down. They are all about making massive profits, just look at which companies are the #2, #3, and #4 on Fortune 100.

+1 That is 100% correct. If it drops, they would stop drilling alot of Places and stop test-drillings everywhere.

 

[Johann Koeber]

Yes. Hasn't show his face around here lately either.

Didn't I read he was banned?

 

[Citizen-T]

Rumor has it he is on vacation with Steph for a while.

Didn't I read he was banned?

I think it is temporary.

 

[Johan]

Rumor has it he is on vacation with Steph for a while.

... and with Iamthecauliflower

Great day for TSLA today. Earnings will be either golden or a big dip. Volatility is here to stay for some time to come. 130 price target is with a net loss! Will be exciting to see what Adam Jonas of MS has to say prior to earning (if he says anything). He seems like the one big analyst with the best insight and understanding IMO.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Realist said he's been short from $91 right? Must be hurting today.

I don't think he shorted the stock. That is pretty difficult to do from Germany; you can't just go to your bank - there are hundreds of them - and open a trade account which allows you to short a US-stock, especially one that isn't a big cap (I know, Tesla is getting there).

 

[Johan]

I don't think he shorted the stock. That is pretty difficult to do from Germany; you can't just go to your bank - there are hundreds of them - and open a trade account which allows you to short a US-stock, especially one that isn't a big cap (I know, Tesla is getting there).

Just buy puts. Same thing.

 

[JRP3]

He claims to be short.

So why am I short the stock?

I see a lot of people got burned by shorting the stock too early. Musk grilled them. But now short interest has come down to 15% so any further squeeze is unlikely. It might go to the 120-130s but I cannot imagine much higher. The valuation is too high. Way too high.

 

[brianman]

... and with Iamthecauliflower

I must admit I'm curious how this particular person is doing these days. Hopefully no stress trauma.

 

[blakegallagher]

Hopefully they are still holding onto Tesla ..... although not good for their health ... great for the bank account

 

[cwerdna]

I dont understand why "Realist" has be banned. His discussion gave more positive results for the performance of the roadsters battery pack as originally assumed.
There was many positive feedback to fight against "Realist" and his short position.

I've only skimmed Realist's posts and don't think he should've been banned either.

I don't have time to read all the threads here or even just the TSLA investor related threads. I have no positions in TSLA (unfortunately), so congrats to those who have made a killing on the stock. That said, I have noticed a somewhat disturbing pattern here. So many people are bullish on this site and it seems negativity about the stock/company is frowned upon. I guess it's not surprising since many own their vehicles, are waiting for theirs or are Tesla or EV enthusiasts. Problem is, this sure smells like a bubble or case of irrational exuberance to me.

It seems obvious that the the meteoric rise since the beginning of the year was due to a short squeeze. How much longer can it keep rising given that ZEV credits will dry up eventually and one would think the wait list will eventually be whittled down? When will this short squeeze end? Hope some of you have been investing from before .com bubble and thru the crash. I've experienced that pain myself. Didn't help that I was a total amateur investor back then either.

I've seen plenty of once high-flyers and momentum stocks which seemed unstoppable then eventually run out of steam. Example: Remember AAPL when it was just going thru the roof towards $700/share and even analysts were giving it a price target for $1000? It would suck to be a buyer who jumped in at the $600s, didn't sell and has watched it fall into the $400s...

Realist's POV is most certainly different as AFAIK, the Model S isn't available there yet and there's no Supercharging infrastructure outside the US either. I don't OTOH know how well EVs are doing in Germany but AFAIK, Germany isn't CA, WA or OR in terms of EV interest/demand.

The market can be fickle. All it can take for a stock to turn is a bunch of negative stories. Or, sometimes they seem to crop up if a stock starts reversing.

I'm not interested in shorting TSLA, as I've done it for other stocks before and have lost WAY more than I've ever made.

 

[deonb]

The problem wasn't with Realist's POV - it was with his style. He kept spewing point after point without ever caring to back up any of it. And then when he was challenged, he just made up something else.

 

[gameon]

I've only skimmed Realist's posts and don't think he should've been banned either.

I don't have time to read all the threads here or even just the TSLA investor related threads. I have no positions in TSLA (unfortunately), so congrats to those who have made a killing on the stock. That said, I have noticed a somewhat disturbing pattern here. So many people are bullish on this site and it seems negativity about the stock/company is frowned upon. I guess it's not surprising since many own their vehicles, are waiting for theirs or are Tesla or EV enthusiasts. Problem is, this sure smells like a bubble or case of irrational exuberance to me.

It seems obvious that the the meteoric rise since the beginning of the year was due to a short squeeze. How much longer can it keep rising given that ZEV credits will dry up eventually and one would think the wait list will eventually be whittled down? When will this short squeeze end? Hope some of you have been investing from before .com bubble and thru the crash. I've experienced that pain myself. Didn't help that I was a total amateur investor back then either.

I've seen plenty of once high-flyers and momentum stocks which seemed unstoppable then eventually run out of steam. Example: Remember AAPL when it was just going thru the roof towards $700/share and even analysts were giving it a price target for $1000? It would suck to be a buyer who jumped in at the $600s, didn't sell and has watched it fall into the $400s...

Realist's POV is most certainly different as AFAIK, the Model S isn't available there yet and there's no Supercharging infrastructure outside the US either. I don't OTOH know how well EVs are doing in Germany but AFAIK, Germany isn't CA, WA or OR in terms of EV interest/demand.

The market can be fickle. All it can take for a stock to turn is a bunch of negative stories. Or, sometimes they seem to crop up if a stock starts reversing.

I'm not interested in shorting TSLA, as I've done it for other stocks before and have lost WAY more than I've ever made.

I agree with you in part.

Right now, stock price is going high based on few things, i.e. good reports of a model s, people buying 70k to 100k car and gas price pretty high.

In long term, you want to see good network of super charger station, model x and model s sell for few years without saturation or competitors don't exist for few years, genIII with lower price tag & reliability. If everything they achieve sky is limit, but you know the distance they have to travel. I don't believe one positive quarter (partly EV credit), and good 2nd quarter (assuming) warrant such as a high price tag (again stock market logic and assumption go out of the window...many times)

 

[copyhacker]

The problem wasn't with Realist's POV - it was with his style. He kept spewing point after point without ever caring to back up any of it. And then when he was challenged, he just made up something else.

He started another thread in which he claimed to be a huge Tesla fan, from a car dealership family, and wanted to present the dealers' POV on the recent litigation. His tone there was much more reasonable and inclusive. He smelled like an astroturfer to me.

 

[JRP3]

That said, I have noticed a somewhat disturbing pattern here. So many people are bullish on this site and it seems negativity about the stock/company is frowned upon.

Not at all, but if you are going to try and bring up opposing points you better be dead on with your facts because this group knows better. Realist kept trying to bring up issues that did not exist, and with no facts to back them up. Believe me if you have any real data that points to problems I want to hear it, and I'm sure others do as well. Just don't waste our time with nonsense.

 

[kevin99]

Yes i don't agree the Realist guy should be banned, just because I made a promise with him to report our position and P/L in a week, a month... Now I can't see his report!

Everyone is responsible for his own foolishness or genius. It works both ways.

The only short window is when it hits $120 today, selling the weekly short for this week will work fine.