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Devils advocating...from someone who shorted TSLA

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by Realist, Jun 25, 2013.

  1. Realist

    Realist Member

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    Expectations are too high and the valuation is just massively overblown.

    The Q2 number is not really important. The outlook is more relevant and there I see clear evidence that Tesla will not be able to sell close to 5000 cars a quarter.
    Right now Tesla is selling cars at a pretty insane pace which is unlikely to be sustainable since the Model S is a very high priced car. In countries without TAX incentive the demand is close to zero. In Germany the current reservation number is still in the 3 single digits. I don’t believe the demand for the Model S will be higher than a 100 cars a month. In the Netherlands Tax incentives will run out by the end of this year, therefore demand will collapse in 2014. Apart from Norway, which is not in the EU, no other European country is planning a serious tax incentive on EV cars.

    If you take a look at the time between ordering and delivery it has come down to 2-4 weeks. That tells me that Tesla is already not producing at maximum capacity and that demand in the US has already peaked. That is not really surprising since the Model S is very expensive (even with the Tax rebate) and it only applies to a limited audience as it’s range is very limited.

    Tesla will have a hard time to make money at all within the next 24 months or even in the distant future. New stock and debt offerings are a safe bet.
     
  2. ckessel

    ckessel Active Member

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    So, your take is Elon, George, and Deepak are all outright lying through their teeth about the demand they're either seeing or extrapolating in US, Europe, and Asia?
     
  3. Realist

    Realist Member

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    I think the 2013 number of more than 20.000 cars is achievable. But beyond that I see hard times ahead.

    Apart from Elon Musk I have only seen insiders selling stock or exercising options.
     
  4. ckessel

    ckessel Active Member

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    So, again, you think Elon, George, and Deepak are outright lying about demand after 2013?
     
  5. toastypasta

    toastypasta Member

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    If you worked for the company and had these options lying around wouldn't you exercise at least some of them right now with the stock price so high. I definitely would.
     
  6. imherkimer

    imherkimer Member

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    @Realist ???? Umm, I'll give you this: your scenario is a real misunderstanding and realistic misinformation.
     
  7. Realist

    Realist Member

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    Elon Musk is not lying but I think he is clearly overestimating himself. And he is certainly no new Steve Jobs.

    One example: Tesla’s supercharger model is just a complete waste of energy. Of course he is offering the power for free, so nobody actually realizes the massive charging losses. This is the only reason why the others are not turning to such a solution. The charging losses and the waste of energy are enormous! It is not a sustainable business model. Society will not accept a car with a carbon footprint worse than a Ford F150 forever. And this is the case if you are using these superchargers. Just make your own calculations on that.

    The battery swap system is also utterly nonsense. Does he really want to bolt a high voltage battery pack on the chassis over and over again? It’s not a sustainable engineering solution. Not even close.
    If you make an objective comparison between the Model S and a very standard saloon car, like an Audi A6 TDI the Tesla is completely outclassed. The Audi has double the range (<1000km), 40 kph higher topspeed, more comfort and safety features and cost 40.000 Euros less. And before you talk about acceleration, power is truly the last thing these big diesels need.

    So in the End the Model S is just a big luxury item. Which is fine for some, but not for all.
     
  8. Bardlebee

    Bardlebee Member

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    Can I get some scientific articles about the carbon footprint comment? I would be interested in actual metrics and beliefs of the CO2 costs of the supercharger in comparison to a truck. I am 100 percent serious. Does anyone have comparison well to road of an electric car to a ICE? It would be nice if we had an archived article we can reference with 20 different independent articles by reputable institutions about this subject. So we can just copy the link to people for their own knowledge.
     
  9. NigelM

    NigelM Recovering Member

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    If you're trying to argue that Tesla's recharging models are not viable, you need to come up with more than just provocative statements.
     
  10. BriansTesla

    BriansTesla Old school meets new tech

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    I have been in the automotive business for 37 years working with VW, Porsche and Audi. A few years ago, I watched "Who Killed the Electric Car". A few months after that, we started doing EV conversions. A few months ago, I test drove a Model S. A few weeks ago I picked up my new Model S.

    As far as the future of transportation: Game, Set, Match!

    Anyone who doesn't think the Model S is the future is living in the past. I see it as laying in your deathbed, shaking your fist!
     
  11. Johan

    Johan Took a TSLA bear test. Came back negative.

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    Even with charging losses the efficiency of a Model S is at least 80%, while the best ICE's will get slightly above 30% - by efficiency I'm referring to the percentage of energy generated or in the case of ICE chemically bound in gasoline that goes towards actually propelling the vehicle, with almost all of the rest becoming heat. So if you want to complain about heat generation please turn to the ICE first. The statement about the Ford F150 truck is simply untrue - please show data supporting your claim.

    And you know this about the swapping because...? I would argue that it remains to be seen how that solution works out, technically and economically, but do you have any data supporting your claim?

    How often do you need to go 240 km/h instead of 200 km/h? More comfort and safety features - please show some data to support this claim (at least the safety claim which is not totally subjective). Power - I assume you're referring to torque? I would argue that the A6 TDI is less powerful than the Model S at almost any speed but please show some data to prove me wrong. Price: yes it's more expensive.

    Yes, it's a pricey luxury car and it's not for all. So what?

    Anyway, I'm sure you've placed your bets financially - with the current stock price and your views you should be shorting on margin. I've placed my bets in the opposite direction. Alea iacta est. Let's talk in 5 years.
     
  12. ggr

    ggr Roadster R80 537, SigS P85 29

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    But you just said:
    I conclude that you're just being disruptive and trolling, and I for one won't take you seriously nor reply any more.
     
  13. Realist

    Realist Member

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    I do not want to go that much off topic here as the carbon footprint of electric cars has already been discussed over and over again.
    In case of the Tesla supercharger there is one important aspect that just seems to be ignored.

    Due to the fixed resistance of the battery (impedance) and the basic relation of P=I^2xR your charging losses will rise exponentially in relation to the power you are using. I have no specific data on the Supercharger but even tesla cannot rewrite the laws of physics. At least they recommend not using the Supercharger all the time due to balance issues on the battery. Still, with the Supercharger your charging losses will be at least 3 times higher than on your standard 24A solution at home.

    I find it pretty interesting that Tesla is only planning to install a few Superchargers in Europe.

    Just a few points on an objective Observation for the Model S with implications on market chances in Europe.

    The Model S is a 100.000 Euro car with almost no active safety features (for example lane assist, collision warning, emergency stopping etc….) It does also have rear seats which are really not acceptable for any person taller than a 12 year old kid. The acceleration is indeed excellent but it’s range is not. A 300hp Audi A6 TDI is no lame duck with 0-60 in 5s. Yet it’s much cheaper and has a range well above 1000km. You just cannot get into your Model S and drive with it from Munich to Hamburg. Any petrol or diesel car will cover far distances much faster than a Model S.

    So it’s still a car that only applies to a very small audience. As a performance car no european customer will take the Model S serious as you can neither go on the track nor can you go faster than 210 kph despite its lively acceleration. And this speed does matter here. People who buy a M5 just want to be faster than anyone else. Also BMW is now putting it's own electric line up on sale now in Europe. I cannot imagine Tesla beeing able to compete with this guys here.

    I admit that the demand for the Model S in the US really took me by surprise. Almost 5000 cars on one quarter is truly astonishing. Yet I just don’t think that you can expect that kind of demand outside the US. Keeping that level of domestic demand will also be difficult because this is still a car priced in the 100.000$ range, no matter how good people think it is.
     
  14. imherkimer

    imherkimer Member

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    Realist, obviously you know nothing about this car.
    Drive one sometime, and maybe you will see it differently.
    Although, it seems pretty clear you have other motivations, and are not really interested in reasonable discussion or evaluation of Tesla or Model S.
    You are clearly determined to run down the car and the company as much as possible and spread as much misinformation as possible.
    Your comments are not objective, just the opposite, and not helpful to any long range valuation of Tesla. Get informed! Cite your sources, and don't just make stuff up!
    One suspects that you are being paid to spread this kind of garbage on this forum. Can't see any other reason you are here.
     
  15. serkol

    serkol Member

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    I concur. Could the moderator ban this person? His posts are mostly misinformation and fud. He clearly has an agenda and his posts have no value to the forum readers.
     
  16. Citizen-T

    Citizen-T Active Member

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    Don't feed the trolls.
     
  17. serkol

    serkol Member

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    Right, but they should be banned. This forum is moderated, so why not use the moderation for the benefits of 'not trolls'?
     
  18. JRP3

    JRP3 Hyperactive Member

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    Neither can you. In fact resistance of the battery decreases as temperature increases, and higher charge rates increases internal temperatures. Charge rates slightly beyond 1C is not that high, and in fact those rates only apply to the early part of the charge cycle. As usual, you don't know what you are talking about, and you've been skating along the edge of FUD ever since you showed up here, and you've brought nothing worthwhile to the table.
     
  19. Realist

    Realist Member

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    You obviously don't get the point. Have you ever used a Supercharger? The massive heat increase is a clear sign for serious charge losses. This is basic physic and it's explained here:

    http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/18189-You-might-consider-charging-slower
     
  20. kevin99

    kevin99 Banned

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    Realist, you are a complete nonsense. I come to this forum for insightful discussion. Instead it is all you incessant gibberish.
    There are two things you must do to qualify to speak further. Establish a short position to mean you put money where your mouth is, and to drive a model S. until ten keep your mouth shut because enough is enough.
     

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