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Distance on full battery charge

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The biggest battery Model S is rated at 370mi (~595km?).

I have a smaller battery, but I've seen on my battery (from the same long distance supercharger-to-supercharger trip, different seasons):
In 70F (21C) weather I can get close to 100% real miles (compared to rated miles)
In 50F (10C) I probably get 85%, in real miles.
Anything below 10F (-12C) and I'm only safely getting only maybe 60-65% of my battery in range between supercharging stops.

Wind speed plays a critical role too.

Extrapolate as you like, I'll let other people chime in.
 
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The range hit is larger if you are making many short trips, as the battery and cabin warms/chills. If you are making single, longer trips, you will get closer to rated range.

Long trips are usually where range is more critical.

I live in Minnesota. If I remember correctly, my worst case scenario yet, was a 168mile/270km drive at about -22f/-30c, with two bikes on the rack. I got approx. 65% of rated range for that trip.

I have really found my Tesla to offer a much better overall winter driving experience for in-town driving. For long distance, if your route is Supercharged, you'll be fine. If you have a smaller battery, like an S with a 60, your charge times on a long cold trip will be exaggerated, as you'll need near full charges and the last 20% is really slow.
 
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For daily use, I would look at 90 percent charge.
So, a 90% charge on new S would be approx 330 miles.
Consider you want to recharge at 50 miles that would give the car a normal range of 280.
Considering a 30 percent hit on range in cold would be 196 miles. Even if there was a 40 percent hit on range, you still would comfortably drive 182 miles. keep in mind, most of you pre heating would want to be done while connected to your charging station. This cuts down from having to use the heater as much while on battery power. Also keep in mind that electric seats and steering wheel heat is more efficient than the car heater and is always highly recommended.
 
Longer drives....


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and adding some shorter drives into the mix ....

Screen Shot 2019-07-12 at 4.54.11 PM.png
 

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70% of 80% of the rated range. Figure you’ll run it from 90% state of charge down to about 10% (a nice safe buffer). Cold weather and snow will drop you down to about 60% or worse of what you’d get in the summer. Short trips are worse than long trips, but 70% is a good average for the sake of discussion.

So if you’re rated at 500 km on a full charge, expect about 280 km using my numbers above. You can stretch it by adjusting speed, cabin temperature or by charging to 100% (not recommended for daily driving). 500*.8*.7=280
 
In the above chart, much of the efficiency loss in extreme temps is from the heaters, both running them and pre-heating the car in some cases. In all cases, below about 5-10C, the battery heater will come on if needed.

Cabin heat + Battery heat = 12kW or about the energy used driving at 40km/hr. The battery heater only runs full tilt for about 10-15 minutes, but uses a lot of power for that time. This is what kills range on multiple short same day trips in the winter.
 
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I want to echo the comment about short trips eat range vs long trips. At single digits F driving Green Bay area to Minneapolis I think I only see 15% range hit. I haven't done it a lot though.
BUT on my 7 mile each way daily commute once it gets below zero and if I don't preheat while plugged in energy use can near triple.
If travelling in cold heat during supercharging to keep interior warm and not use a bunch of power to warm it at the end.of charging once you drive again.
 
In the very cold winter with heavy wind I was averaging 450-500 wh/mile
My 85 battery has 67 kwh usable
So 67/0.45 is the total miles I was getting (135-150 miles).
Do the same calculation depending on the battery size you are looking for and you will get your total worst case range
 
I think that @Struja can answer your question pretty accurately considering he is in Toronto area. From what I remember, he sees up to 50% range loss in harsh winters.

Not quite that bad but close. On our coldest days I get about 40% loss, even though my car is garage parked in a partly insulated garage. Also, once your battery gets “cold soaked”, it takes a REALLY long time while driving to heat the battery up, all the while your range is in the tank.

Add to that, I use Winter tires, which are almost always less efficient, so, expect a lot of loss and in Ottawa, you’re even colder than we get here. So, my 90D gets about 465km on a full charge (100% - which I rarely ever charge to), but on the coldest I am well under 300km in actual range (probably around 275-280km in range). That is why, every time I see a thread about which car to pick, for me the answer starts with the one with the most range.
 
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