I don't really keep up to date on what part numbers were built when... But I've got a pretty good idea of when Tesla switched to putting ceramic bearings in the drive units. Has the drive unit ever been replaced in the past? If so, when? If it has never been replaced, then it definitely has steel bearings...
We rebuild drive units at the shop where I work on a weekly basis (in fact, I think we will have complete 4 this week by the end of the day today). It could be a much cheaper alternative to having the service center replace your drive unit. A full overhaul at our shop cost's $4,000, and includes a new rotor coolant seal, new bearings (hybrid ceramic), a comprehensive inspection of all wearing parts, and of course new lubricants for the splines and gearbox.
We're in Vista California, but I would expect even if you shipped the car down here, it would still be much cheaper than the new drive unit from Tesla, and by the way, we get cars shipped here from all over the country. In fact, right now we have another car here from the Seattle area, one from Louisiana, and another that should be on it's way soon from Connecticut.