EDDs - Giga Texas production baked in?

[TGH_ELK83]

Hi All,

Is it known if current EDDs take into account the opening of Giga Texas? Or is it possible EDDs will get pulled in once they get approval to start delivering cars made there?

Thanks

 

[ShakataGaNai]

No solid information from me, but I'd wager that there is some assumptions built into their model related to Giga Tx. Frankly, their model is probably relatively complex. Global demand historical vs forecasted, with each factories production trends and estimations going forward. That being said, they haven't opened a lot of the new giga factories yet. So there is a lot of "error" possible in any future trending, especially when you're looking at things like "We have no idea how long regulators will take to approve the factory". Once the factory is in operation, it takes time (months) just to see where the production is versus your previous estimations, and adjust accordingly.

Anyone on order, myself included, can hope that Texas isn't baked into the current EDD's - but it probably is to some level. My date has already "slipped" from August to September.

 

[TGH_ELK83]

No solid information from me, but I'd wager that there is some assumptions built into their model related to Giga Tx. Frankly, their model is probably relatively complex. Global demand historical vs forecasted, with each factories production trends and estimations going forward. That being said, they haven't opened a lot of the new giga factories yet. So there is a lot of "error" possible in any future trending, especially when you're looking at things like "We have no idea how long regulators will take to approve the factory". Once the factory is in operation, it takes time (months) just to see where the production is versus your previous estimations, and adjust accordingly.

Anyone on order, myself included, can hope that Texas isn't baked into the current EDD's - but it probably is to some level. My date has already "slipped" from August to September.

Yea my Feb order just went to September too What you said makes complete sense. You sound like a statistician/data scientist

 

[ShakataGaNai]

Yea my Feb order just went to September too What you said makes complete sense. You sound like a statistician/data scientist

Hardly anything on the math stuff. Just someone who's spent a long time in the business world and knows how these things are typically planned out. Tesla is anything but typical so it's hard to know what to expect. Based on other threads about EDD, it seems anyone w/o FSD has had their order pushed back a little bit and everyone WITH FSD has had their orders jump forward a huge amount.