Elon: "Feature complete for full self driving this year"

[Interferon]

Tesla's mission is not making the most money. It is accelerating the transition to sustainable transportation. Making the feature affordable increases demand for Teslas. Mission is also making the safest cars, if FSD is safer than humans, then the mission is better supported by have it be affordable enough for people to buy it.

How much profit you make is a very good proxy to how well you are doing your job. If you give your product away, you will lose money and soon go out of business. You charge too much, no one will buy your product, you soon go out of business.

Maximizing your profit maximizes your capital to expand business and accelerate whatever you are trying to do. Especially in the beginning where rich people are buying your expensive product and subsidizing the subsequent product R&D for normal people.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

Saw this on facebook. Take it with a grain of salt as always since it is not official.

"UPDATE OF FSD/HW3: just spoke to Tesla and asked if FSD will include HW3. Supervisors answer “ right now we don’t know. They are testing HW2 and 2.5 to see if they can handle FSD. HW3 is not fully developed yet. We do not know what the results of testing will be so we don’t know if 2.5 will be sufficient or if 3 will be needed”."

View attachment 384686

I don't believe we'll know the answer to that for at least 3-6 months.

So I hope EAP people aren't jumping at getting the FSD option for $2K under the expectation that they're going to get HW3. Tesla can't really say anything until cars start shipping with HW3. Until then Tesla won't be transparent about HW3 as they risk reduced sales. I'm afraid that we'll get the same answer as they've always said. That they'll upgrade cars if needed for FSD.

I'm still pessimistic about Tesla's optimization capability so I'm optimist about FSD owners getting HW3.

I also hope they find a use for 100K+ HW2.5 computers. Maybe give them to colleges?

 

[electronblue]

Revisionist history?

My point — and really my only point — was that while you can argue the more imaginative aspects of FSD were a case of ”should have known the risk” there were tangibles in the announcement and in the original Design Studio that were not.

It was not unreasonable to expect buying FSD to get four extra active cameras and differentiating features in around 3-6 months. There is also no reason for Tesla not to announce Tesla Network details they sold as part of that package — after all that is just giving out info and status.

Maybe the rest one can chalk up to risk, the ”Level 5 capable hardware”, the regulatory approval, maybe even the coast to coast demo though that is questionable... But not those tangibles. There is no valid reason why Tesla has not delivered. (There may be selfish reason within Tesla but not valid reasons IMO.)

This might be an unpopular opinion, but those who bought FSD really should have known the risk they were taking.

Elon/Tesla promised something that NO ONE had ever achieved before. So what made it believable?

 

[lunitiks]

Elon/Tesla promised something that NO ONE had ever achieved before. So what made it believable?

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

My point — and really my only point — was that while you can argue the more imaginative aspects of FSD were a case of ”should have known the risk” there were tangibles in the announcement and in the original Design Studio that were not.

It was not unreasonable to expect buying FSD to get four extra active cameras and differentiating features in around 3-6 months. There is also no reason for Tesla not to announce Tesla Network details they sold as part of that package — after all that is just giving out info and status.

Maybe the rest one can chalk up to risk, the ”Level 5 capable hardware”, the regulatory approval, maybe even the coast to coast demo though that is questionable... But not those tangibles. There is no valid reason why Tesla has not delivered. (There may be selfish reason within Tesla but not valid reasons IMO.)

The tangibles didn't amount to much. The fact that you used what's known as a definitely, maybe twitter post from Elon is proof of that.

How one feels about this issue depends largely on personal viewpoints.

Some people are naturally "lets wrap people in bubble wrap", and there are people like myself who are basically "Haha, you screwed up. Sucks to be you". Of course I'm not going to have sympathy for FSD dreamers (those who fell for it completely). I'm just going to pile them on with the crapshow that was 2016.

2016 gave us FSD, Brexit, and you can probably guess the third.
2019 is simply the reckoning on those decisions. Why should I have sympathy for people who believed in fairytales? People who assumed that those with little to no experience were somehow going to best those with decades of experience?

Now going away from a personal viewpoint, and something more universally agreed upon is the expectations going forwards. The expectation that Tesla will make will make a concentrated effort on achieving the deliverables now within the FSD package. There is FUD that Tesla will purposely weaken the FSD attempt to make it fit within the current HW. I have this FUD as well, and I'm taking a wait and see approach to it. What we do know is HW3 is Tesla's own basket so at some point they'll put their eggs into it. We'll know at that time who gets that basket.

If Tesla weakens FSD to avoid doing the HW2/HW2.5 swap to HW3 then they've lost me as a customer. The one consistent promise we got was we'd get the new computer if it was required.

Why is HW3 so important? It allows for full resolution Neural network based detection, and allows for a much larger number of objects to be detected accurately. It can't magically get us from L2 to L3. But, it can make L2 so much more enjoyable to use by detecting things that HW2 can't.

I see HW3 as being the only reasonable out that Tesla has in the journey towards FSD aside from refunding everyone who bought FSD prior to the realignment. It's the middle choice between angry and impossible.

 

[electronblue]

@S4WRXTTCS I think you’ve lost it, sorry.

What you are saying basically amounts to victim-shaming those defrauded. As said, I can — and did — give you the Level 5 pipedream. That’s one thing. But eight active cameras for FSD and a timeline from the CEO for FSD differentiating features, those were not unreasonable points to believe at that time. Tons of people online said they didn’t buy FSD for Level 5 but for the features they expected were around the corner.

Hindsight of course is 20-20.

 

[Bladerskb]

@electronblue storms out after lengthy exchange with @S4WRXTTCS

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

@S4WRXTTCS I think you’ve lost it, sorry.

What you are saying basically amounts to victim-shaming those defrauded. As said, I can — and did — give you the Level 5 pipedream. That’s one thing. But eight active cameras for FSD and a timeline from the CEO for FSD differentiating features, those were not unreasonable points to believe at that time. Tons of people online said they didn’t buy FSD for Level 5 but for the features they expected were around the corner.

Hindsight of course is 20-20.

What I'm saying is there are two sides to blame for the FSD fiasco.

One side is Elon, but who enables Elon? Who allows him to get away with all the crap he pulls? He has an almost cult like following who at the time felt he could do no wrong.

I was on this site when FSD was initially released, and I remember all those gullible people eating it up. It didn't matter what those of us who knew better said to them. They insisted it was the future and they were trading in their now "worthless" AP1 vehicles in on them.

It's not a case of Hindsight is 20-20. There was ZERO experts in autonomous driving who saw FSD as even having a chance. All a perspective buyer had to do was a bare minimum of research to know better.

You say you're okay with me not having sympathy for the L5 pipe dream people. But, you fail to understand that those are the only people impacted by the recent watering down of FSD. No one else wants any sympathy.

For those of us who had more realistic expectations for FSD nothing has really changed. In fact I imagine most of us are pretty happy with the realignment. If I'm reading the crowd right (on TMC) the owners are more concerned over whether they'll get HW3. Where they're concerned that the quality/capability of FSD will be limited to get it to fit HW2. There is also concern over pricing, and those who bought FSD+EAP should at least get a $1K refund. For those in that boat all they need to do is email Tesla support to try to get a $1K refund. It's worked for some people, but I don't know if it's an official thing or not. I don't think they deserve it, but I certainly can't blame them for trying. I might have to try it, and not because I deserve it. I should because I could use the money.

As an EAP+FSD owner I'm happy with the realignment as it's a better reflection of what's possible with the current hardware sensor suite.

It's something I can have a conversation where I'm not struggling with how to explain it. Back then I kept thinking "How in the world do I tell this person that a Tesla vehicle is great, but the way FSD is being sold is borderline fraud?".

As to the two things you mention as being more tangible things.

The eight active cameras to four activate cameras change was around 6 months ago if not longer when 360 degree visualization was released for ALL vehicles. It's regarded as a safety feature.

Sure there was an expectation that all eight cameras being active was for FSD owners only, but I doubt anyone with FSD cares that the 360 degree visualization was given to everyone with the HW2/HW2.5 computer. I'm certainly not going to have sympathy for someone who feels like they were defrauded over a decision to give everyone a safety feature.

As to the differentiating features time line that Elon gave. To have some kind of expectation one needs to know what those features even were. Elon never said.

Is there really anyone angered over that? It's not that it won't happen, but Elon was wrong with the time frame. Even before that tweet he had a long track record of being completely off on time frame.

It's a mute issue anyways as it has a new time frame. Of course it's 3-6 months like the last time frame.

But, at least this time around we know what features are going to be added, and how it will differentiate. Which makes it a lot easier to make a buying decision on.

I could certainly have sympathy for someone who bought a vehicle today, and didn't get the FSD features listed in 12+ months.

But, how much sympathy is realistic?

Just because there are deliverables this time around doesn't necessary mean any of this is a safe bet.

We know that even today it's a risky proposition.

It's more money ($5K versus $3K).

It's incremental which has a danger in that they're adding capabilities to an L2 system while limiting it to L2 driving. There are a fair amount of people in the media that say Tesla is playing a dangerous game with the approach. At any point the NHTSA (or some other agency) can step in and put a stop to it.

So once again we can't really say hindsight is 20/20 as we fully know the risk before this stage begins. We're also so far away from self-driving that whatever is currently on the feature list doesn't really matter. Things change as they're developed.

The people that get FSD need to understand that this isn't something that's just going to happen. It's going to take multiple tries, and set backs.

 

[electronblue]

@S4WRXTTCS @Bladerskb @lunitiks and others

Riddle me this:

Was it unreasonable to expect eight active camera differentiating features when one pre-purchased FSD in the AP2 manufacturing era (pre-AP 2.5)? Was this something people should have known is not happening anytime soon and eventually will happen at a lower price too?

I would say definitely not. No precedent had seen Tesla missing their pre-sold Autopilot obligations by this wide a margin. AP1 for all its faults and misses still delivered steady progress for those who bought it. There was also not yet precedent on Tesla lowering retrofit prices below pre-order prices at that time.

Instead those who ordered FSD 2.5 years ago have not received a single differentiating feature for their money. And now the price for EAP+FSD is half. This in a purchase that for many has only a lifetime of around three years.

Is this really something people buying then should have know and thus deserve no sympathy for being miseld?

For example, had Tesla really followed their promise cars with EAP or pre-EAP would only have a limited dash view of surrounding cars. FSD would have gotten what we have now. Instead that too was given to all cars again making the investment in FSD pointless. That was a choice Tesla made to break from a sales point made on Design Studio. Also halving the price of EAP+FSD retrofit before delivering any FSD features for those who paid full was a choice Tesla made.

Here is one random tweet with screenshots to illustrate my point — this is a person solely peeved about missing the eight active camera differentiating feature:

J L on Twitter

FSD package was promised to ”double the number of active cameras from four to eight”. (Everyone got this for free AND included in EAP driving too, so not just for ”safety” which was never mentioned anyway.) It was also said the retrofit price would be $4,000 which later became $5,000 (now $2,000).

 

[electronblue]

It really boils down to this:

2.5 years later people who paid $3,000 for FSD have:

- Received not a one differentiating feature for their money, nothing

Instead they have seen:

- Promised eight active cameras that were a FSD feature go for free to all buyers, a choice by Tesla
- The FSD retrofit price being halved without refunds for those who pre-paid, a choice by Tesla
- Received no details of the Tesla Network in 2017 expressed the Design Studio text, a choice by Tesla
- Seen no coast to coast drive or explanation or revides timeline, promised for late 2017, not being more open about this also a choice by Tesla

This is before ANY non-tangibles or pipedreams like Level 5 capable hardware or coast to coast Summon or sleeping in consumer cars.

And yes, unlike @S4WRXTTCS says, a lot of people are peeved about this very thing and did factor these promises in their original FSD purchase much moreso than any ”Level 5” future. It is obvious simply by reading Tesla internet forums of the time. People bought FSD to get those eight active cameras.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

@S4WRXTTCS @Bladerskb @lunitiks and others

Riddle me this:

Was it unreasonable to expect eight active camera differentiating features when one pre-purchased FSD in the AP2 manufacturing era (pre-AP 2.5)? Was this something people should have known is not happening anytime soon and eventually will happen at a lower price too?

I would say definitely not. No precedent had seen Tesla missing their pre-sold Autopilot obligations by this wide a margin. AP1 for all its faults and misses still delivered steady progress for those who bought it. There was also not yet precedent on Tesla lowering retrofit prices below pre-order prices at that time.

Instead those who ordered FSD 2.5 years ago have not received a single differentiating feature for their money. This in a purchase that for many has only a lifetime of around three years.

Is this really something people buying then should have know and thus deserve no sympathy for being miseld?

For example, had Tesla really followed their promise cars with EAP or pre-EAP would only have a limited dash view of surrounding cars. FSD would have gotten what we have now. Instead that too was given to all cars again making the investment in FSD pointless. That was a choice Tesla made to break from a sales point made on Design Studio.

The lower price is really only valid for the people who already have a vehicle without EAP or EAP+FSD. Where it's only $5K to get them versus the $8K I paid. The EAP people only save $1K since the total for them is $7K. Rumor has it their giving EAP+FSD owners a $1K refund if they request it, but I haven't confirmed this.

In any case I believe the lower price is a mistake. The only people that should have been taken care of is EAP people to allow them to upgrade to FSD for $3K as they already had parts of the new FSD in EAP. So $3K would have been a perfectly fair price, and they would have paid $8K total just like me.

That would have been perfectly fine, and no one would have assumed the prices would get lower in the future. Tesla made a huge mistake in giving the impression that it would get lower in price. Now they have EAP people holding off on FSD thinking they're going to get a better price in the future.

The much higher post install price was also a mistake. Sure having a slightly higher price for post install is reasonable, but having a really high one puts pressure on people to buy before they really know what they're getting.

I've always been clear that Tesla made some serious missteps with how they sold it.

As the four versus eight active camera. That to me is how something gets implemented where most end users aren't really going to care. What matters to them is if the features work, and does the things that were described under EAP or FSD.

For EAP they spent 2.5 years and they failed to deliver on Smart Summons, Smart Parking, NoA (in terms of usability), and they didn't have unconfirmed lane changes. Within a month or two were supposed to have Smart Summons, and Unconfirmed lane changes, but we have no idea how well either will work.

FSD they didn't have anything, but nothing was really promised either. It didn't have any differentiating features. It was literally FSD. The 4 versus 8 cameras was to allow for it, and not a feature in itself.

I'm not sure why FSD owners weren't at least thrown a bone. Something to indicate to them that Tesla didn't completely forget about them. My suggestion was (on a thread about this) for Tesla to give them dashcam since an eight camera dashcam has a lot of value. So if FSD driving people got that as a sort of bone then FSD owners would have had at least something.

Instead the opposite happened and HW2 people didn't even get dashcam as it required HW2.5.

If I'm going to single out a group that has my sympathy (on a whole) it would be HW2 FSD owners.

The biggest reason is Tesla hasn't clarified if/when they're going to get HW3.

If they're promised HW3 along with retrofitting anything needed then I think that will satisfy them. It HW3 upgrades aren't possible then I think its reasonable to refund them.

It's also important to keep in mind that the FSD purchase price for $3K was a small percentage of the vehicle they were getting. So I think it's important not to exaggerate the harm. Sure the whole FSD thing was ridiculous, but we're not talking about people struggling to make ends meet.

 

[electronblue]

@S4WRXTTCS You forget people indeed bought Teslas for those eight active cameras and the features they would allow. Even on TMC there are bunch of people who upgraded for it. This is not about a mere $3,000. But it certainly would be a good start to refund the FSD kit without removing it as a token of goodwill for those who bought in before the price-cuts.

In any case, clearly the price-cuts were a Q1 cash injection demand lever (if it wasn’t obvious before, it is obvious today). Everything is sacrificed for the demand lever as always.

What a company.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

FSD package was promised to ”double the number of active cameras from four to eight”. (Everyone got this for free AND included in EAP driving too, so not just for ”safety” which was never mentioned anyway.) It was also said the retrofit price would be $4,000 which later became $5,000 (now $2,000).

Everyone got this because it WAS for safety.

The 360 degree visualization is a way to improve blindspot/side spot monitoring to something useful. I doubt the cameras in question are used for anything more than to help that out. So that helps the collision avoidance, and the automatic lane changes.

When it comes to EAP versus FSD do we know in fact how many cameras are active for actual AP driving (aside from collision avoidance, and monitoring)? Are all 8 camera's used to determine placement of the car on the road? It doesn't feel like that to me. I doubt it uses the rear camera for anything as it sometimes doesn't work at all.

At any rate maybe you're right and maybe more people are mad about the 4 versus 8 camera thing then I realized. But, I still fail to understand what they expected the cameras to do.

If they removed 2 of the camera it would break functionality of lane changes.

Can't they just accept the fact that the 4 versus 8 cameras claim was made before Tesla even implemented the SW? Where Tesla didn't realize the consequence of not having those.

You have to view the Tesla Autopilot team as pre-Karpathy and post-Karpathy.

Pre-Karpathy had people who didn't know what they were doing.

Post-Karpathy they at least have a clue or two.

So I'd highly recommend to HW2/HW2.5 owners who have FSD to be more concerned with the future than the past. The future is HW3.

To me that's the only thing that should really matter.

Where those of us who bought FSD get HW3. If some of us can't be upgraded then they get refunded.

We have to be vigilant more than angry. Vigilant in making sure that FSD meets reasonable expectations.

So far NoA doesn't meet expectations
it doesn't look like Smart Summons out of the gate will either.

 

[electronblue]

We can't do anything about the past.

Of course we can. We can keep holding responsible feet to the fire in an effort to make sure it never happens again or at least that it happening again does not happen without a cost.

As convenient as the post-Karpathy narrative is (it reminds me of the post-EAP different-for-FSD codebase narrative of yore) it was the same company and management that is still responsible for what they sold.

I don’t disagree keeping Tesla responsible for HW3 retrofits of course.

 

[mongo]

Just a heads up:

Per Elon on Twitter regarding EAP/ FSD pricing:

In retrospect, lower price shouldn’t have been offered. Was done so because some simply couldn’t afford it. Prices revert to normal on Monday.

Invite to Early Access Program still valid for early adopters

FSD gets you free HW3 upgrade

 

[electronblue]

@mongo Eager much to get that word out?

 

[mongo]

@mongo Eager much to get that word out?

I know, I know, and you know, and a few others know, but with 4 FSD related threads going, I wasn't sure how to cover everyone interested in FSD. Plus the 'will HW3 be provided to FSD purchasers?' question popped up in a few threads, so I figured a recent update was (mildly) useful.

 

[electronblue]

 

[lunitiks]

Pre-Karpathy had people who didn't know what they were doing.

Post-Karpathy they at least have a clue or two.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

I know, I know, and you know, and a few others know, but with 4 FSD related threads going, I wasn't sure how to cover everyone interested in FSD. Plus the 'will HW3 be provided to FSD purchasers?' question popped up in a few threads, so I figured a recent update was (mildly) useful.

Will HW3 be provided to FSD purchasers has been the biggest concern I've seen in either current FSD owners or those considering getting it before the price goes up.

So I definitely think its worth mentioning in multiple threads to make sure people have seen it

It's almost as big of a ticket item as P3D- people getting track mode. It had to be repeated over, and over to finally convince them that it was for real.