Elon: "Feature complete for full self driving this year"

[daniel]

I'm going to take issue with you not using the subjunctive conjugation in this sentence.

What’s the Difference Between Was and Were?

And I'm going to take issue with your use of the word "conjugation." The subjunctive is a mood, not a conjugation.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

And I'm going to take issue with your use of the word "conjugation." The subjunctive is a mood, not a conjugation.

Fair enough. I blame my French classes, where it was always taught as a separate conjugation of the verb (subjunctive mood often has a special form in French, which is a huge PITA...honestly I was always just trying to remember the right root all the time, which meant my mood was always bad).

 

[daniel]

Fair enough. I blame my French classes, where it was always taught as a separate conjugation of the verb (subjunctive mood often has a special form in French, which is a huge PITA...honestly I was always just trying to remember the right root all the time, which meant my mood was always bad).

I was first going to call the subjunctive a case, which is possibly a mis-remembering from my study of Spanish or the result of an errant cosmic ray playing havoc with my brain. I would advise all English speakers to forget about French and learn Spanish instead. There are tons of cognates and the grammar is straightforward and best of all, words are spelled the way they're pronounced and pronounced the way they're spelled. Recently I tried to learn French with a view toward a possible future trip to French Polynesia (where swimming with humpback whales is permitted). It was a total bust. Spoken French and written French bear virtually no resemblance to one another, and 25 years after I studied Spanish, my brain is no longer receptive.

Another advantage of Spanish is the people: If you speak bad French, the French despise you. If you know a dozen words of Spanish and make an attempt to use them, Spanish speakers love you.

Sorry for the digression. Back to the speculations about what "feature complete" means and when or if it will come to our cars.

 

[diplomat33]

Looks like Tesla still has some work to do with traffic light recognition:

green on Twitter

 

[banned-66611]

Looks like Tesla still has some work to do with traffic light recognition:

green on Twitter

Notice how it keeps detecting the "F" on that sign on the left as a traffic light too.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Looks like Tesla still has some work to do with traffic light recognition:

No one could have predicted these sorts of problems!

 

[Bladerskb]

The HD map Elon is describing is the same HD map a driver familiar with the road has in his head. Only crowdsourced from cars and digitalized.

You can perfectly well drive at a new location without maps by vision only. But it doesn't make sense for a human driver to drive into the same pothole every day when you know it's there. In the same way it doesn't make sense that other Tesla's need to drive into the pothole once a few cars before you has.

Maps help, and they should definitely not be required to drive. If the road is covered in snow, they help you know where the lanes split and merge, even if you don't see the marks on the road. In the same way a familiar driver would know, however a new driver would likely drive elsewhere because he doesn't know the lanes under the snow.

From now on, i'm gonna reply to every post supporting Hd maps with a post from a Tesla fan arguing against it. Trust me, there are hundreds of thousands.

If you don't have Maps for an area, NOA wont work.If you removed the maps or maps changed, NOA will stop functioning. ChrMl, Elon is now going against his word, creating a very brittle not general solution system. But i digress...Here is my response to your post:

If you need maps for anything other than finding a route to your destination, it's not generalized.

 

[Bladerskb]

Your statement is internally inconsistent.
If you use lidar data as a reason to ignore your vision data, then lidar is your primary sensor (not a redundant one) (plastic bag versus tire in road). If you ignore your vision data because it doesn't match your HD map, then the map is the primary data source (construction bypass) . If you cease operation because of a data conflict, you're giving both sources equal billing and made your system more brittle.
You can't have a 'helping' sensor, you either rely on it or you don't.
(Yes, there can be edges cases where lidar detects an object that vision does not, but that should be fixed by improving the vision system. On Teslas, the radar covers the majority of that space)

Wow just saw this gem. Look at the logic contradictions.

Emphasize Lidar & Ignore Vision = No redundancy.
Emphasize Vision & Ignore Lidar = No redundancy.
Emphasize Lidar & Vision = Brittle.

Logic Result #1: Emphasize Sensor A & Ignore Sensor B or Emphasize Sensor A & Sensor B is BAD!

Logic Result #2: No such thing as multi-modality 'helping hand sensor'.

............Unless you have Tesla's special magic forward facing radar sensor. Which means the above logic doesn't apply.

Trite, but fun, saying from the days of sailing ships:
When you go out to sea, never take 2 clocks, either one or three...

If only airplanes would ditch those stupid triple redundancy computer and sensor system. What an absolute waste. Having 5 different computers running simultaneously. Having four independent systems. Having multi-modal sensors. What an absolute joke!! These legacy airplane manufacturers have to go!! Do they not know about the Mongo Law? That there is no such thing as a 'helping hand sensor' unless its Tesla's magic single forward radar. Which by the way has to be a single forward radar. If you have 4 or 5 radars your system is now back to being BAD and brittle. it also has to be a last gen old forward radar that can't distinguish stop obstacles. Plus don't heat it so it can fail in inclement weather.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Elon has been very restrained recently. I am waiting for his tweet declaring feature complete full self driving is coming next week.

 

[daniel]

Elon has been very restrained recently. I am waiting for his tweet declaring feature complete full self driving is coming next week.

Maybe he's learned his lesson regarding the prediction of time lines? Sometimes when I'm on a trip, or hiking, or paddling, I don't want to be told "We're half-way there," "We're 3/4 of the way there" "We're just ten minutes away." Sometimes I just want to plod on until we've arrived. Sometimes it's really nice, when you think you've still got an hour to go, to suddenly realize you're on the summit. Or you're paddling and your arms are getting sore and you're starting to wonder how much longer you can keep it up, and suddenly the steersman makes a sharp 90° turn and you realize you're headed straight for the beach where you're going to land.

Instead of making promises and then revising them and revising them, with all the bad press that entails, wouldn't it be great if one day they just released the firmware version that could do City NoA? And then one day, without prior announcement, they just released Level 3? And one day, with no previous indication or announcement, cars appeared on the showroom floor without driver controls, and ready for purchase?

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Maybe he's learned his lesson regarding the prediction of time lines?

I think we are more likely just one more meme review or EDM jam session away from getting that tweet.

 

[diplomat33]

Maybe he's learned his lesson regarding the prediction of time lines? Sometimes when I'm on a trip, or hiking, or paddling, I don't want to be told "We're half-way there," "We're 3/4 of the way there" "We're just ten minutes away." Sometimes I just want to plod on until we've arrived. Sometimes it's really nice, when you think you've still got an hour to go, to suddenly realize you're on the summit. Or you're paddling and your arms are getting sore and you're starting to wonder how much longer you can keep it up, and suddenly the steersman makes a sharp 90° turn and you realize you're headed straight for the beach where you're going to land.

Instead of making promises and then revising them and revising them, with all the bad press that entails, wouldn't it be great if one day they just released the firmware version that could do City NoA? And then one day, without prior announcement, they just released Level 3? And one day, with no previous indication or announcement, cars appeared on the showroom floor without driver controls, and ready for purchase?

I wish you were right. More likely, someone will ask him on Twitter when "City NOA" will be released and he won't be able to help himself. He'll tweet a reply like "FSD rewrite is almost done. I'm testing it now in my development car. Will probably go to Early Access next week if all goes well."

 

[jimmym1981]

I wish you were right. More likely, someone will ask him on Twitter when "City NOA" will be released and he won't be able to help himself. He'll tweet a reply like "FSD rewrite is almost done. I'm testing it now in my development car. Will probably go to Early Access next week if all goes well."

And then we have a feature preview of it with visuals of what the car will do while he works on it for another 6 months...

 

[daniel]

I wish you were right. More likely, someone will ask him on Twitter when "City NOA" will be released and he won't be able to help himself. He'll tweet a reply like "FSD rewrite is almost done. I'm testing it now in my development car. Will probably go to Early Access next week if all goes well."

I think that Facebook and Twitter are the two worst things ever to happen to human communication. (I don't have either Facebook or Twitter. Sometimes somebody posts a Twitter screenshot and I cannot figure out who is talking to whom. I would shut down both if I were in charge.) We are living in the Idiocracy, and those two platforms are largely responsible.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

If only airplanes would ditch those stupid triple redundancy computer and sensor system

Didn't the 737-Max?

At least the part that killed people.

 

[pilotSteve]

Didn't the 737-Max?

At least the part that killed people.

NO! The system that went rogue did so based on only ONE of its two sensors to make its decision that the pilot needed an “override”. Even though the aircraft certification required it to have TWO of the (AOA) sensors...... Boeing sold the MCAS system redundancy to compare the two as an extra $$$$ option that the accident plane did not have.

 

[Daniel in SD]

NO! The system that went rogue did so based on only ONE of its two sensors to make its decision that the pilot needed an “override”. Even though the aircraft certification required it to have TWO of the (AOA) sensors...... Boeing sold the MCAS system redundancy to compare the two as an extra $$$$ option that the accident plane did not have.

I bet everyone is going to check the box for that software upgrade now though! Real marketing geniuses over there at Boeing.

 

[Interferon]

To be honest, the only "naive and clueless" person in this scenario are those who have NOT worked on the problem.
This man's experience and his expertise is not in question.

Yours on the other hand...

Being a good chip designer doesn't make you a subject matter expert on all possible programming and computer science algorithms that run on your chip.

 

[alsetym]

Elon has been very restrained recently. I am waiting for his tweet declaring feature complete full self driving is coming next week.

It's been crickets for software releases which in my mind means that the entire software team is involved in model Y updates and FSD update, both the driving software and UI changes. Maybe he is going to sell the first model Y with FSD V1 enabled? Great way to kick off the program.

 

[diplomat33]

It's been crickets for software releases which in my mind means that the entire software team is involved in model Y updates and FSD update, both the driving software and UI changes. Maybe he is going to sell the first model Y with FSD V1 enabled? Great way to kick off the program.

Delivering the first Model Y's with FSD V1 is probably a bit optimistic. But I do agree that the lull in software updates is because the team is working hard on FSD. We know they are busy with the FSD rewrite and trying to finish "City NOA".