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Elon: FSD Beta tweets

Ramphex

Active Member (Beta)
Jun 9, 2021
1,459
3,924
Tampa Bay Area
Correct, but looking at the FSD track record, we right now get no features for $10,000 and only the beta testers get any sort of useful features. If we get disqualified from getting into beta then we end up with no features or possibility of features, until FSD is released in production instead of Autopilot to the public (maybe in the next 5 years?)
 
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EVNow

Well-Known Member
Sep 5, 2009
12,604
33,657
Seattle, WA
Correct, but looking at the FSD track record, we right now get no features for $10,000 and only the beta testers get any sort of useful features. If we get disqualified from getting into beta then we end up with no features or possibility of features, until FSD is released in production instead of Autopilot to the public (maybe in the next 5 years?)
I think you get a lot of features for that 10k already. Besides, when FSD beta goes into wide release, everyone can get it. No need to wait for non-beta release ...
 

Ramphex

Active Member (Beta)
Jun 9, 2021
1,459
3,924
Tampa Bay Area
What features do I get now for 10k? Maybe I'm not doing something right because the only thing I have is the summon gimmick that pulls out of my garage and drives into the grass instead of to the road, and the lane switching with turn signal. According to the tweets the "wide release" will still require approval based on the Tesla Insurance algorithm. Which brings me back to my initial point that if the algorithm disqualifies you, then there's a good chance you won't get any features (aside from the above mentioned gimmicks) until full release (if it ever happens)
 
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diplomat33

Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
Aug 3, 2017
8,790
12,497
Terre Haute, IN USA
Is that for Chandler or everywhere ? Includes rain / snow or not ?

I think it means "everywhere". Remember that Waymo has tested their FSD in lots of cities all over the US, in rain and snow over the years. They have millions of real world driving all over the US, including in rain and snow as well as billions of simulated miles that cover a lot of edge cases not seen in real world driving. So Waymo has a lot of experience with lots of perception cases in lots of different areas and different weather. Based on all that experience, I guess Waymo feels that they have solved most common perception cases.

ps : Interesting how you completely trust Waymo exec but not Musk.

Well, Anguelov is Head of Research. He's Waymo's top scientist and engineer that oversees their entire FSD research. Yeah, I will trust him when he talks about Waymo's machine learning since that is his work that he is deeply knowledgeable about. Just as I also trust Karpathy to talk about Tesla's machine learning since that is his work that he is deeply knowledgeable about. Guys like Anguelov and Karpathy are talking about their research that they know. That's different than an exec just spouting marketing.

Elon claimed 6 years ago that FSD was solved but has yet to deliver any FSD. He has a long track record of promising FSD and not delivering. He's lost a lot of credibility in my eyes. And Waymo has missed deadlines but they have real FSD. Waymo has deployed some robotaxis to the public and they are a well respected AV leader. They have more credibility. So yeah, I trust Waymo more than Elon.
 
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diplomat33

Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
Aug 3, 2017
8,790
12,497
Terre Haute, IN USA
Correct, but looking at the FSD track record, we right now get no features for $10,000 and only the beta testers get any sort of useful features. If we get disqualified from getting into beta then we end up with no features or possibility of features, until FSD is released in production instead of Autopilot to the public (maybe in the next 5 years?)

But you would still get FSD Beta when it is released wide in the full production version. So you would still get what you paid for. You just had to wait longer and didn't get to test the super beta version.
 

JHCCAZ

Electrified Engineer
Supporting Member
Feb 2, 2021
495
925
Tucson
...Delusional... I forgot what it’s like to be in TSLA investor threads. Please don’t bring that nonesense here
My following-paragraph comment should not be taken as a general defense or agreement with the valuation theory of @nativewolf. Personally I disagree with parts of it including the very first sentence "There is nothing to patent" as i think patent wars could significantly slow the introduction of self-driving. Right or wrong, it was an enjoyable read and a wide-ranging comment that addressed the question posed by @Daniel in SD .

What I disagree with far more strongly is this response. by one of the most prolific and tireless arguers in the forum, suggesting that it was a post that didnt belong here, somehow polluted the otherwise pristinely logical content of the AP/FSD forum section.

in reality there is thread after thread in here, often titled and starting as an attempt to focus on a particular sub-topic, that is hijacked and devolves into incessant bickering, straw-man ridicule and generally off-topic disagreements. There is a small number of well-known members who propagate these thread-destroying exchanges.

In this environment, I think the attempt to squelch or banish a reasonably well-constructed thesis, whether or not sensible in your own opinion, is misplaced and hypocritical. It's also a missed opportunity, because after all, if one just loves to argue and proclaim how right he is, over and over, a purportedly "nonsense" post should be red meat, a new opportunity to demolish the nonsensical points and add to the count of how many times you've been right. One needs unreasonably positive people, to serve as prey for the unreasonably negative ones.
 

nativewolf

Active Member
Jul 21, 2015
1,141
3,715
viena va United States
No. FSD is a subset of AI. Solving FSD would only solve a part of AI, not the whole thing. FSD AI is very specialized, it is just AI designed to solve the specific task of driving a car. It is not general AI. You can't use FSD AI to solve language AI problems or math AI problems.



The idea that Waymo is not really solving real FSD is another one of those myths that Tesla fanboys spread. Waymo uses machine learning on Google's supercomputers to develop deep neural networks for camera vision perception, lidar perception, radar perception, prediction and planning. According to Waymo's Head of Research, they have solved "vast majority of perception cases" and are now working on the long tail of edge cases. They are also working on problems like finding the best intermediary representation of perception to maximize efficiency of behavior predictions, prediction problems like anticipating intent of other road users both individually and as groups, best interfaces between perception/prediction, and prediction/planning, doing joint prediction/planning, building intelligent simulation agents to make simulations more realistic, to better train AV for interaction with other road users and much more. This is all according to Waymo's Head of Research, Anguelov. So, Waymo is solving the problems of real FSD.
I'm ignoring some other comments but I appreciate your tireless defense of Waymo and you sire are a good sport so here goes.

Of course FSD is a subset of AI. I mean I appreciate that we have never met and your questioning my intelligence (what little is left ;)) is fine but really...of course it is a subset. The point being that if Tesla can actually solve FSD as in have a car drive like a person, but better, than they will have progressed very far towards solving the general AI challenge and Dojo will by that time be the worlds best NN training facility and likely a long time differentiator and will be easily turned to other challenges, becoming more and more...sentient, as more and more challenges are solved. Dojo is a pretty deep idea.

Re investments: I don't feel the energy market is fully priced into TSLA. I feel even more so re FSD fully priced and certainly the ramifications of AI are not priced into it. Cathy at Ark believes TSLA is worth $3000 taking into account some of these things but not AI in general. We've got a ways for the stock to go is how I'd look at things.

I respectfully disagree re Waymo. They are a science experiment gone rouge and they will never offer a generalized solution to FSD. I don't live in a city but the country side. My 12 year old son can and does drive a truck at times on our roads. Why can't Waymo if it has solved FSD? It can't it may never , it is simply not conceivable given the progress over 13 or 14 years. What is conceivable is that next year a Tesla with FSD may in fact take a drive down one of our roads without flinching when a cow has escaped our neighbors pastures and is wandering along. Maybe...I can at least envision that happening. Can I get in the backseat next year. No. But with the velocity they are showing and showing with a new openness I could see it happening before 2030. Waymo however is cursed with Google roots. It would be the first google experiment to actually work. Therefore I place about a 0% chance of anything happening with Waymo that is worth paying attention to as a consumer. From a research point of view it likely is very interesting.


Tesla launched mass market EVs 2 years after Nissan and Chevy, they were maybe 4 years late delivering solar roofs and still fighting that, they have half the battery capacity they need, SpaceX has yet to get a person on Mars or even orbit the earth with Starship, starlink has me on a waiting list, boring tunnels are not everywhere, nor does neurolink work yet. However, they all have worked. Late, yes. Worked - in all cases. Brilliant? Yes, in all cases.
  1. EVs are the talk of the town because of Musk- a car that you update remotely, great computer chips, software and hardware in house, battery research in house, etc etc. Everyone is years behind. You want to drive a nissan leaf or a model y?
  2. Starlink is going to destroy ISPs throughout the world because Musk needed a way to fund getting to Mars. Hughes net or some crappy german ISP or Starlink?
  3. Neurolink...not sure why but brilliant and working . Degnerative disease or neurolink?
  4. Boring co- starting to finally get going Traffic jam or fly down a tunnel?
  5. etc etc
This is the team I believe will get you to FSD. I had been concerned last year at this time. Now I am seeing rapid progress, new openness, pressure on developers, etc. 10k or so beta users will be a heck of a test. I am sure you'll enjoy the view from either as a tester or from the sidelines. Please dont' take my distrust of Waymo personally. I enjoy re your posts though ..your efforts are not worthy of this craptastic team google throws at it.
 
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nativewolf

Active Member
Jul 21, 2015
1,141
3,715
viena va United States
As it is still in Beta if they disqualify you are you sure you would be a good test driver? It's not promised to be rock solid. Anyway, I think only a small subset of the 370k paid subscribers will get it.
Wonder what happens if the Tesla algorithm disqualifies you... I feel as then you should be able to get a refund on your 10 thousand dollar investment if you can't use it.
 

Ramphex

Active Member (Beta)
Jun 9, 2021
1,459
3,924
Tampa Bay Area
As it is still in Beta if they disqualify you are you sure you would be a good test driver? It's not promised to be rock solid. Anyway, I think only a small subset of the 370k paid subscribers will get it.
Sounds like I might as well have invested 10k into a pyramid scheme.
 

JHCCAZ

Electrified Engineer
Supporting Member
Feb 2, 2021
495
925
Tucson
I think it means "everywhere". Remember that Waymo has tested their FSD in lots of cities all over the US, in rain and snow over the years. They have millions of real world driving all over the US, including in rain and snow as well as billions of simulated miles that cover a lot of edge cases not seen in real world driving. So Waymo has a lot of experience with lots of perception cases in lots of different areas and different weather. Based on all that experience, I guess Waymo feels that they have solved most common perception cases.



Well, Anguelov is Head of Research. He's Waymo's top scientist and engineer that oversees their entire FSD research. Yeah, I will trust him when he talks about Waymo's machine learning since that is his work that he is deeply knowledgeable about. Just as I also trust Karpathy to talk about Tesla's machine learning since that is his work that he is deeply knowledgeable about. Guys like Anguelov and Karpathy are talking about their research that they know. That's different than an exec just spouting marketing.

Elon claimed 6 years ago that FSD was solved but has yet to deliver any FSD. He has a long track record of promising FSD and not delivering. He's lost a lot of credibility in my eyes. And Waymo has missed deadlines but they have real FSD. Waymo has deployed some robotaxis to the public and they are a well respected AV leader. They have more credibility. So yeah, I trust Waymo more than Elon.
I too think that Waymo's self-driving technology is quite far along and seems impressive In many ways. I'm less sure that they're entirely barking up the right tree in their self-driving hardware+software+mapping architecture; this doubt comes not so much from a belief in specific and superior engineering concepts on my part, but from the apparently slowing pace of advancement - especially in light of their head-start on almost everyone else outside of academia.

As a close follower of Waymo, what is your opinion about the various upheavals in management and, to some degree, sales focus (the recently unsuccessful / aborted attempt to market their in-house Lidar IP)? The question is not an attack on Waymo, it's a very reasonable topic for anyone trying to assess their chances going forward.
 

nativewolf

Active Member
Jul 21, 2015
1,141
3,715
viena va United States
My following-paragraph comment should not be taken as a general defense or agreement with the valuation theory of @nativewolf. Personally I disagree with parts of it including the very first sentence "There is nothing to patent" as i think patent wars could significantly slow the introduction of self-driving. Right or wrong, it was an enjoyable read and a wide-ranging comment that addressed the question posed by @Daniel in SD .

What I disagree with far more strongly is this response. by one of the most prolific and tireless arguers in the forum, suggesting that it was a post that didnt belong here, somehow polluted the otherwise pristinely logical content of the AP/FSD forum section.

in reality there is thread after thread in here, often titled and starting as an attempt to focus on a particular sub-topic, that is hijacked and devolves into incessant bickering, straw-man ridicule and generally off-topic disagreements. There is a small number of well-known members who propagate these thread-destroying exchanges.

In this environment, I think the attempt to squelch or banish a reasonably well-constructed thesis, whether or not sensible in your own opinion, is misplaced and hypocritical. It's also a missed opportunity, because after all, if one just loves to argue and proclaim how right he is, over and over, a purportedly "nonsense" post should be red meat, a new opportunity to demolish the nonsensical points and add to the count of how many times you've been right. One needs unreasonably positive people, to serve as prey for the unreasonably negative ones.
a nicely worded post. Yeah I am not sure about the NN and AI approach but it seems to follow so much prior art in research that there would be little room for patent protection worth pursuing. However, I could be wildly off in that statement. The early patents have all expired and anything that is a derivative would of marginal use, I feel.. I think the idea of Dojo is what's different and will provide as much barrier as a patent- which on the whole are ephemeral and often lead to stagnation. Creating barriers instead of forcing the organization to adapt and change. When the barriers no longer work the organization is weak and moribund. Xerox, Kodak, Intel, etc etc
 

nativewolf

Active Member
Jul 21, 2015
1,141
3,715
viena va United States
Sounds like I might as well have invested 10k into a pyramid scheme.
I would say you paid way too soon and would have been better off putting it into TSLA. That stock would be worth (say you bought in 2020) about 120k right now. However, it seems you will get it soon enough; I like prognasitication- say Jan 2022.
 
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JHCCAZ

Electrified Engineer
Supporting Member
Feb 2, 2021
495
925
Tucson
Sounds like I might as well have invested 10k into a pyramid scheme.
With respect, not every swindle is a pyramid scheme. And I'm not saying it's a swindle, I have a fresh FSD Tesla on order and I prefer to think of it as a (very loosely) calculated, voluntary risk.

But, taking the stipulation that it is a swindle or a con, a pyramid scheme relies on an ever-growing participation by each new generation of victims, to provide reward, financial fuel and apparent success to the prior generation, so that everyone can point to the returns and be empowered to recruit the next generation. The pyramid collapses when the rate of new investment is insufficient to provide said illusory returns.

FSD has a presently declining customer base, little to no present return and relatively little incentive to recruit new participants - other than ego confirmation or a desire to spread the embarrassment as delays continue. There is no referral-program benefit or other multi-level marketing aspect. User reviews, exposing many warts, are publicly available and widely discussed.

The attractions of FSD are excitement and/or need for the new technology, coupled with some Fear of Missing Out in the event the future price goes even higher or worse, Elon stops selling cars to us because he only wants RoboTaxis for himself. Existing FSD buyers are, at this point, probably almost embarrassed to brag about it when they show off their Tesla to their friends.

So you might view it as a false-promises swindle "it slices, it dices, you can throw away all those other appliances!", an early-adopter come-on "be ready for the future!" or a FOMO scheme "this sale won't last, order by midnight tonight!". But I don't think any pyramid was ever raised.
 

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