I think you get a lot of features for that 10k already. Besides, when FSD beta goes into wide release, everyone can get it. No need to wait for non-beta release ...Correct, but looking at the FSD track record, we right now get no features for $10,000 and only the beta testers get any sort of useful features. If we get disqualified from getting into beta then we end up with no features or possibility of features, until FSD is released in production instead of Autopilot to the public (maybe in the next 5 years?)
Is that for Chandler or everywhere ? Includes rain / snow or not ?
ps : Interesting how you completely trust Waymo exec but not Musk.
Correct, but looking at the FSD track record, we right now get no features for $10,000 and only the beta testers get any sort of useful features. If we get disqualified from getting into beta then we end up with no features or possibility of features, until FSD is released in production instead of Autopilot to the public (maybe in the next 5 years?)
My following-paragraph comment should not be taken as a general defense or agreement with the valuation theory of @nativewolf. Personally I disagree with parts of it including the very first sentence "There is nothing to patent" as i think patent wars could significantly slow the introduction of self-driving. Right or wrong, it was an enjoyable read and a wide-ranging comment that addressed the question posed by @Daniel in SD ....Delusional... I forgot what it’s like to be in TSLA investor threads. Please don’t bring that nonesense here
I'm ignoring some other comments but I appreciate your tireless defense of Waymo and you sire are a good sport so here goes.No. FSD is a subset of AI. Solving FSD would only solve a part of AI, not the whole thing. FSD AI is very specialized, it is just AI designed to solve the specific task of driving a car. It is not general AI. You can't use FSD AI to solve language AI problems or math AI problems.
The idea that Waymo is not really solving real FSD is another one of those myths that Tesla fanboys spread. Waymo uses machine learning on Google's supercomputers to develop deep neural networks for camera vision perception, lidar perception, radar perception, prediction and planning. According to Waymo's Head of Research, they have solved "vast majority of perception cases" and are now working on the long tail of edge cases. They are also working on problems like finding the best intermediary representation of perception to maximize efficiency of behavior predictions, prediction problems like anticipating intent of other road users both individually and as groups, best interfaces between perception/prediction, and prediction/planning, doing joint prediction/planning, building intelligent simulation agents to make simulations more realistic, to better train AV for interaction with other road users and much more. This is all according to Waymo's Head of Research, Anguelov. So, Waymo is solving the problems of real FSD.
Wonder what happens if the Tesla algorithm disqualifies you... I feel as then you should be able to get a refund on your 10 thousand dollar investment if you can't use it.
Great, I'll go flag one down. Hmmm...well no, very very few can use it. On very very few roads as long as they have the dispatcher and follow up cars are there to rescue you. I just don't feel that is generally available.To be fair, Waymo actually has a service that works right now. Anyone can use it.
Sounds like I might as well have invested 10k into a pyramid scheme.As it is still in Beta if they disqualify you are you sure you would be a good test driver? It's not promised to be rock solid. Anyway, I think only a small subset of the 370k paid subscribers will get it.
I too think that Waymo's self-driving technology is quite far along and seems impressive In many ways. I'm less sure that they're entirely barking up the right tree in their self-driving hardware+software+mapping architecture; this doubt comes not so much from a belief in specific and superior engineering concepts on my part, but from the apparently slowing pace of advancement - especially in light of their head-start on almost everyone else outside of academia.I think it means "everywhere". Remember that Waymo has tested their FSD in lots of cities all over the US, in rain and snow over the years. They have millions of real world driving all over the US, including in rain and snow as well as billions of simulated miles that cover a lot of edge cases not seen in real world driving. So Waymo has a lot of experience with lots of perception cases in lots of different areas and different weather. Based on all that experience, I guess Waymo feels that they have solved most common perception cases.
Well, Anguelov is Head of Research. He's Waymo's top scientist and engineer that oversees their entire FSD research. Yeah, I will trust him when he talks about Waymo's machine learning since that is his work that he is deeply knowledgeable about. Just as I also trust Karpathy to talk about Tesla's machine learning since that is his work that he is deeply knowledgeable about. Guys like Anguelov and Karpathy are talking about their research that they know. That's different than an exec just spouting marketing.
Elon claimed 6 years ago that FSD was solved but has yet to deliver any FSD. He has a long track record of promising FSD and not delivering. He's lost a lot of credibility in my eyes. And Waymo has missed deadlines but they have real FSD. Waymo has deployed some robotaxis to the public and they are a well respected AV leader. They have more credibility. So yeah, I trust Waymo more than Elon.
a nicely worded post. Yeah I am not sure about the NN and AI approach but it seems to follow so much prior art in research that there would be little room for patent protection worth pursuing. However, I could be wildly off in that statement. The early patents have all expired and anything that is a derivative would of marginal use, I feel.. I think the idea of Dojo is what's different and will provide as much barrier as a patent- which on the whole are ephemeral and often lead to stagnation. Creating barriers instead of forcing the organization to adapt and change. When the barriers no longer work the organization is weak and moribund. Xerox, Kodak, Intel, etc etcMy following-paragraph comment should not be taken as a general defense or agreement with the valuation theory of @nativewolf. Personally I disagree with parts of it including the very first sentence "There is nothing to patent" as i think patent wars could significantly slow the introduction of self-driving. Right or wrong, it was an enjoyable read and a wide-ranging comment that addressed the question posed by @Daniel in SD .
What I disagree with far more strongly is this response. by one of the most prolific and tireless arguers in the forum, suggesting that it was a post that didnt belong here, somehow polluted the otherwise pristinely logical content of the AP/FSD forum section.
in reality there is thread after thread in here, often titled and starting as an attempt to focus on a particular sub-topic, that is hijacked and devolves into incessant bickering, straw-man ridicule and generally off-topic disagreements. There is a small number of well-known members who propagate these thread-destroying exchanges.
In this environment, I think the attempt to squelch or banish a reasonably well-constructed thesis, whether or not sensible in your own opinion, is misplaced and hypocritical. It's also a missed opportunity, because after all, if one just loves to argue and proclaim how right he is, over and over, a purportedly "nonsense" post should be red meat, a new opportunity to demolish the nonsensical points and add to the count of how many times you've been right. One needs unreasonably positive people, to serve as prey for the unreasonably negative ones.
I would say you paid way too soon and would have been better off putting it into TSLA. That stock would be worth (say you bought in 2020) about 120k right now. However, it seems you will get it soon enough; I like prognasitication- say Jan 2022.Sounds like I might as well have invested 10k into a pyramid scheme.
With respect, not every swindle is a pyramid scheme. And I'm not saying it's a swindle, I have a fresh FSD Tesla on order and I prefer to think of it as a (very loosely) calculated, voluntary risk.Sounds like I might as well have invested 10k into a pyramid scheme.