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Elon "I think the stock price is probably about right"

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by SteveG3, Jan 16, 2014.

  1. SteveG3

    SteveG3 Active Member

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    Was asked about comments earlier in the year on valuation and had that response. He did go on to say about right compared to other equities at this time, that equities overall are at a relatively high point. Not sure exactly when interview occurred but they did flash a $168+ price during the interview.

    When will you be able to afford a Tesla? - Video - Technology
     
  2. fjm9898

    fjm9898 Member

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    I saw this too. That actual interview happened Tuesday after the CNBC one (same MS in the back ground) butnot sure why CNN is only posting it now. They posted another segment of that interview yesterday too. really weird.
     
  3. TSLA Siempre

    TSLA Siempre Member

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    I believe Jackl commented on this earlier in another thread, but I agree that Tesla is becoming much better at PR. Their messaging is more consistent. Elon had a more smooth answer regarding the stock price that implicitly acknowledges some frothiness, without talking the stock down and creating negative headlines for the company. Their twitter page is also much more active I think. Glad to see they are learning and adapting.
     
  4. SteveG3

    SteveG3 Active Member

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    TSLA Siempre, scanned short-term investment thread, didn't see anything, started this one.
     
  5. TSLA Siempre

    TSLA Siempre Member

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    sorry. i didn't mean to say that this particular issue of Elon's stock price comment was discussed earlier. i was just saying that that tesla is getting better at PR (which was something that Jackl mentioned on another thread).
     
  6. SteveG3

    SteveG3 Active Member

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    no worries, I totally misread your post.
     
  7. justdoit

    justdoit Member

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    I'm more interested in the fact that he thinks the market is at or reaching its peak :)
     
  8. Mario Kadastik

    Mario Kadastik Active Member

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    I actually agree with this stance. The market is way overbought in my opinion and it's time for a correction. The only big question is when? Will it coincide with the FED discussions end of January or will it be more of a spring melt. I've cautiously started to take hedges on my positions (mostly weekly or February ones) so yes I might miss out some of the upside on some components of my portfolio, but I wouldn't quite be caught with my pants down when the correction comes. I would however appreciate general thoughts on how others are balancing their portfolios for the eventual broad market correction.
     
  9. Robert.Boston

    Robert.Boston Model S VIN P01536

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    Out of curiosity -- it sounds like you're bearish on the market as a whole, not just TSLA?
     
  10. Mario Kadastik

    Mario Kadastik Active Member

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    I'm bullish on TSLA, especially the next few months, but bearish on the market that I think is overstretched after a looong rally. And as TSLA will be affected by a generic market correction I'm contemplating what to do to not fully give up on the upside, but also to have protection towards the fall.
     
  11. TSLAopt

    TSLAopt Active Member

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    You could buy some S&P or Nasdaq puts or sell VIX futures to hedge yourself. Will come at a premium but at least you'll have the peace of mind until they expire.
     
  12. SteveG3

    SteveG3 Active Member

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    Mario, I think at extreme bull or bear territory (i.e. 1999 or 2008), it makes some sense to think about the market as a whole this way. Outside of this you risk trying to play the game of market timing, which is probably one of a handful of investing points there is VERY strong consensus on... it does not work.

    While of course, there's the question, what is extreme bull or bear territory, making my point seem pointless... I'd argue there are times like '99 and '08, where it's meaningfully more clear than other times without hindsight, to see that extreme bull or bear is a reasonable question. Personally I don't think today falls into that category.

    More to the point... if you are looking to hold Tesla for at least 3 or 5 years, I think your decision should be based strictly on Tesla's merits, not the overall market conditions. If you think Tesla is undervalued here I'd say hold. Yes, a 30% market pull back would hurt Tesla, and given the nature of it's rapid rise, probably more than 30%, but if the company is undervalued, with time, it's own value will come to determine its share price rather than the overall direction of the stock market. I'll add, Warren Buffett has helped me have confidence in this. I have repeatedly seen him say he does not look at macro economics when he invests... he simply looks for companies he sees trading at a discount to their future earnings. Good luck.
     
  13. Mario Kadastik

    Mario Kadastik Active Member

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    As mentioned (I think I did) I only trade options (short term and LEAPs). Hence wait and hold isn't an option for me :) but I guess I'll just play VIX, UVXY, SVXY etc to compensate. Considering the high margin debt, the usd/eur strengtheming and the rise of VIX futures are all indicators that the market is starting to feel it too. If the 10-year and 30-year prices drop it's pretty clearly coming. At least that's my take on it. So preparing for the FED meeting I've prepped some uvxy options to play the rise in volatility.
     
  14. Causalien

    Causalien Reaper of Trolls

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    I bought physical gold today and divested my cash to CNY and EUR.
     
  15. SteveG3

    SteveG3 Active Member

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    @Mario, ah, only trading leaps and options, definitely changes everything. Is that a vow you've taken or maybe it is a good time to be one of us buy and holders :)
     
  16. Twiddler

    Twiddler Member

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    Hey Mario - I have played with UVXY for 3 years now, winning pretty huge on the short side. I have yet to see it spike more than 40-45% at any one time, which usually takes about a week to occur. I scale in with puts one month out after a 10-20% rise and have not lost yet. 600% return doing this around the time of the shutdown/debt limit issue. The trick is putting $ in something safe with a dividend and wait for these events to occur. Long these products as a market hedge is a pretty risky proposition, since their basis in vix futures, which are usually in contango (aside from the above spikes of backwardation) and thus tend to eat your position alive unless you time it perfectly. Best of luck!
     
  17. Shumdit

    Shumdit Member

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    I really feel for Elon on how he has to handle such questions. I mean what majority shareholder/CEO/head enthusiast wants to say anything to lower the value of the stock and company, but with the explosion the stock has had he knew it was likely premature to see that sort of valuation. Couple that with his shoot for the hip reputation and he has had to really dig deep for the self control to say the "right" thing. I wish more CEO's were as honest as he is about their feelings instead of just listening to the PR firm they hired. I know it can get him in trouble sometimes, but its very refreshing.
     
  18. Robert.Boston

    Robert.Boston Model S VIN P01536

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    I took a trip in the summer of 2008 with someone who bought bullion, at about $800. While it seemed unreasonably bearish to me at the time, he did quite well.
     
  19. Causalien

    Causalien Reaper of Trolls

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    Not bearish at all. I am waiting for$700 gold. Just got too much concentration in USD.

    Plus. I am building a burn bag. It's fun building a burn bag. Just for the heck of it. In the process, finding out about all the restrictions gov imposed on money flow.
     

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