Elon in Munich on Jan 30, 2014

[InTheShadows]

The other thing about range that I haven't heard much talk of is that most people do not park their ICE with a full tank of fuel. They get home at night with 1/4 tank and drive around town with only 100 miles of range and think nothing of it. Some times returning home with the low fuel light on. Then leaving 15 minutes early for work the next day to stop and fill-er-up.

Personally I like coming home with 1/4 "tank" and waking up the next morning to a 90% full "tank", topped off if I really want to.

In the ICE scenario you slightly modify your lifestyle to make fueling up possible. EV's might need a few lifestyle changes to accommodate but they are far less intrusive than life with an ICE.

 

[SebastianR]

I disagree somewhat. I mentally split driving into
a) daily - commuting and errands
b) weekend - regular weekend driving, which for us is eating out (105 miles, really), visit friends.
c) trips - longer trip to a special location, stay or vist somewhere
A BEV that cannot comfortably do (a) and (b) will not sell in large numbers. PHEV can fill that gap, which is where we could end up with moderately exoensive batteries.
A BEV that can do (a) and (b) could sell in significant numbers, but would have challenges in market acceptance because people hate renting and car manufacturers won't fix that because they want to upsell.
A BEV that can do (a), (b) and all or most of (c) could sell extremely well, and how well would just be a matter of price. This is he model Tesla is focusing on, because it's the only way to grow right now. If successful they would change consideration and they or other manufacturers would be able to sell more PHEVs and limited range BEVs.

Not sure we disagree: A Tesla can clearly do a+b and c in conjunction with Super Chargers (i.e. problem solved).

However, when people compare the range of a Tesla to the range of a Golf, they typically compare a figure that is at best only relevant for c) and most of the time not even that.

It's quite clear: if you need more than 250 miles of range in one go and every day, then the Model S is not for you. If however, you only occasionally need that range and live around Super Chargers you are better off with a Tesla: Every morning you have a full car and you never need to stop at a gas station ever again. So I would argue that that even a hypothetical 2000 mile range of an ICE is worse than the 250 miles of the Model S since you can charge at home but not refuel at home.

 

[mrdoubleb]

It's quite clear: if you need more than 250 miles of range in one go and every day, then the Model S is not for you.... Every morning you have a full car and you never need to stop at a gas station ever again. So I would argue that that even a hypothetical 2000 mile range of an ICE is worse than the 250 miles of the Model S since you can charge at home but not refuel at home.

And once again, no one argues that waking up to a "full tank" doesn't beat going to the gas station hands down. Also, no one says people need 1000 miles of range more than 1% of the time. The question is where should Tesla be heading to fulfill their mission?

If the vision is to completley replace the ICE, you can't just assume everyone has a garage to charge at night. Owners of 100k cars do, owners of 35k cars may, oweners of 15k cars may not. The same probablz goes for renting cars as I argued before. Not to mention the irony of saying, EVs will replace ICEs, and if you really need long distance travel, just rent an ICE...

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So what you're saying is that driving further than the max range of the car is impossible, and for that reason nobody will ever buy one. And tesla needs to focus on enormous batteries because there is no way whatsoever to go more than 265 miles on the car. Certainly not a thing they are already focusing on and will continue to focus in, which is not enormous batteries but quick charging. I feel like there was a media event related to this recently...

Electric cars will not get continually bigger batteries. It just doesn't make sense.

Never talked about enormous batteries. Never said nobody will ever buy an EV. Never said driving further than the max range is impossible. You are not making your point by twisting my words.

You are saying EVs do not need more than 300 rated miles. I am saying 300-350 real miles may be close enough, but the current 175-225 shouldn't be the "end of the road".

 

[FANGO]

And once again, no one argues that waking up to a "full tank" doesn't beat going to the gas station hands down. Also, no one says people need 1000 miles of range more than 1% of the time. The question is where should Tesla be heading to fulfill their mission?

If the vision is to completley replace the ICE, you can't just assume everyone has a garage to charge at night. Owners of 100k cars do, owners of 35k cars may, oweners of 15k cars may not. The same probablz goes for renting cars as I argued before. Not to mention the irony of saying, EVs will replace ICEs, and if you really need long distance travel, just rent an ICE...

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Never talked about enormous batteries. Never said nobody will ever buy an EV. Never said driving further than the max range is impossible. You are not making your point by twisting my words.

You are saying EVs do not need more than 300 rated miles. I am saying 300-350 real miles may be close enough, but the current 175-225 shouldn't be the "end of the road".

You are vastly overstating all of your numbers here. The current rated range is 265, not 175. 1% of drives are not 1,000 miles. For 1% of drives to be 1,000 miles, you would have to drive 1,000 miles in a day once every three months on average. That does not happen. In fact, I would wager that you have never driven 1,000 miles in a day in your life. 1,000 mile drives are probably .0001% of drives.

And your scenario painted a picture of a car which was incapable of doing those things. You said the house has no heating at all, etc. (and, as a side note, I spent the first 15 years of my life in a house with no heating at all, and currently the room I live in has no heating at all, so I suppose I would). That is not "can do these things quite well and for free and without significant difficulty, and it will only get easier over time," that's "can't do these things at all." That's the picture you were painting, and it's not correct.

 

[mrdoubleb]

You are vastly overstating all of your numbers here. The current rated range is 265, not 175. 1% of drives are not 1,000 miles. For 1% of drives to be 1,000 miles, you would have to drive 1,000 miles in a day once every three months on average. That does not happen. In fact, I would wager that you have never driven 1,000 miles in a day in your life. 1,000 mile drives are probably .0001% of drives.

And your scenario painted a picture of a car which was incapable of doing those things. You said the house has no heating at all, etc. (and, as a side note, I spent the first 15 years of my life in a house with no heating at all, and currently the room I live in has no heating at all, so I suppose I would). That is not "can do these things quite well and for free and without significant difficulty, and it will only get easier over time," that's "can't do these things at all." That's the picture you were painting, and it's not correct.

I didn't say 175 miles is the rated range. I said 175-225 miles is the real life range if you are driving at 130kmh/85mph highway speeds, and say, the weather is freezing cold and you have the heating on. At least from what I've read on these forums. And when I said "no one says people need 1000 miles of range more than 1% of the time", that was a figure of speach, I meant that I am NOT claiming people need insaine mileage every day.

But I give up. I don't think this conversation is leading anywhere.

 

[brianman]

In fact, I would wager that you have never driven 1,000 miles in a day in your life.

Ooh. I know you were talking to mrdoubleb, but if you're willing to open that up to other forum members ...

How much are you willing to wager?

 

[jerry33]

Ooh. I know you were talking to mrdoubleb, but if you're willing to open that up to other forum members ...

How much are you willing to wager?

I will join you on that Brian.

 

[772]

did Cleveland-Tulsa-Flagstaff (~2000 miles) in 2 days back when gas was <$2/gallon. 16-17 hours/day on the road. Never again.

 

[AudubonB]

3,050 miles Fairbanks AK to SLC UT in 3d 1h.
By myself.
In winter.
With only two mugs of coffee....no funny stuff.
Never, never again. And I'll shoot anyone who attempts to repeat that insanity.

 

[JST]

New Orleans to Detroit, by myself, straight through. 1100 miles(ish). About 20 hours with stops. God that was stupid. To this day, I have no memory of Kentucky.

 

[callmesam]

San Diego to Pascagoula, MS and back in 60 hours. Worst 2.5 days of my life. Felt the ants crawling on my skin toward the end.

 

[mrdoubleb]

San Diego to Pascagoula, MS and back in 60 hours. Worst 2.5 days of my life. Felt the ants crawling on my skin toward the end.

Well my "longest day of my life" was 730 miles Budapest-Hamburg. I did that 2x in 2 years, but i wasn't driving. They closed the highway for 5 hours during the second trip so we were stranded. My longest personal drive was only 520 miles from Bologna to Budapest.

 

[djplong]

Boston to St. Louis in 19 hours. Once. Not again. Not like that. The longest drive I do these days is from New Hampshire to New York, Philadelphia (daughter lives there), Montreal or possibly Lorton VA to pick up the Auto-Train to go to Florida. Other than that, Cape Cod (130-1405 miles) is the furthest *frequent* trip I take. And our Cape Cod solution (for when I get my Model E) will be to have a 'dryer outlet' installed at the cottage my wife and her siblings own.

 

[greglaw]

Wondering if slow sales in Germany may be driven by speed limit on Model S to 125. Too slow for German left-lane autobahn drivers for such an expensive car? Comparably-priced Porsche Panameras, even the e-hybrid, are 40 to 60 mph faster.

 

[AlMc]

Wondering if slow sales in Germany may be driven by speed limit on Model S to 125. Too slow for German left-lane autobahn drivers for such an expensive car? Comparably-priced Porsche Panameras, even the e-hybrid, are 40 to 60 mph faster.

True. Also, TM may actually be trying to establish a series of SCs close enough so that when they make the promised German performance 'tweak' that an 85 can make it between SCs when the battery life is cut in half going speeds in excess of 120mph. Once established then I think the German market will open up a bit.

 

[Johann Koeber]

Wait till you see the march numbers.

I have the impression there were a LOT of deliveries in march (including mine). Delivery specialists were super busy. Lots of 'ready for delivery' cars on the lot when I picked mine up last Friday.

There are exceptions, but 213 km per hour is good enough for most of us. The ride quality is great, the acceleration even better.There are a growing number of fans here in Germany. Just watch the German forum (tff freunde forum).

We might be in for a pleasant surprise shortly.

 

[AlMc]

Wait till you see the march numbers.

I have the impression there were a LOT of deliveries in march (including mine). Delivery specialists were super busy. Lots of 'ready for delivery' cars on the lot when I picked mine up last Friday.

There are exceptions, but 213 km per hour is good enough for most of us. The ride quality is great, the acceleration even better.There are a growing number of fans here in Germany. Just watch the German forum (tff freunde forum).

We might be in for a pleasant surprise shortly.

Johann: Thanks.........have you heard anything more about the performance upgrade that Elon promised?

 

[perdru]

Wait till you see the march numbers.

I have the impression there were a LOT of deliveries in march (including mine). Delivery specialists were super busy. Lots of 'ready for delivery' cars on the lot when I picked mine up last Friday.

There are exceptions, but 213 km per hour is good enough for most of us. The ride quality is great, the acceleration even better.There are a growing number of fans here in Germany. Just watch the German forum (tff freunde forum).

We might be in for a pleasant surprise shortly.

In Norway Model S deliveries will exceed one thousand in the month of March - do you think you can match that ?

 

[Johann Koeber]

Johann: Thanks.........have you heard anything more about the performance upgrade that Elon promised?

No news on the performance upgrade. I tested the top speed (213 km/h) for several minutes, but I could not witness any change compared to my older MS.

I am also looking forward to the upgraded (softer) seats.

 

[Elwood]

@AIMc:
The performance-upgrade is not supposed to make the car go faster. Just handle better at higher (Autobahn) speeds. (Bare necessity if you ask me...) You would however sacrifice a bit of comfort to get it.