Elon & Twitter

[_Redshift_]

What better marketing tool than a platform with tons of fans already?

Think of the integration possibilities.

But.. Elon hates marketing.

Moreover, for Twitter to be a good marketing tool, it need to have that broad appeal. Elon screwed that pooch when he decided to go right and start making fun of liberals. How many people do you think will continue to use Twitter after it’s filled with anti-semitic, anti-this or that riffraff, because, as Elon puts it, he is a “free speech absolutist”? You are gonna market to only one segment of the population.

Plus, he doesn’t need to own Twitter for marketing, in case he intended to. You can do that right now.

 

[Daniel in SD]

But.. Elon hates marketing.

Moreover, for Twitter to be a good marketing tool, it need to have that broad appeal. Elon screwed that pooch when he decided to go right and start making fun of liberals. How many people do you think will continue to use Twitter after it’s filled with anti-semitic, anti-this or that riffraff, because, as Elon puts it, he is a “free speech absolutist”? You are gonna market to only one segment of the population.

Plus, he doesn’t need to own Twitter for marketing, in case he intended to. You can do that right now.

Elon loves marketing, he just doesn't like paying for it!
But yeah I'm not sure what additional marketing he'll get by owning Twitter versus being one of the most followed users.
The allow anything that's legal policy is completely nuts. How many people want to go on a site where mass shooters post their videos? Maybe Elon doesn't know what kind of speech is legal in this country (I'm not making an anti free speech argument, I'm saying that the vast majority of people don't want to see "whatever speech is legal" on their social media feed).

What I can't figure out is why he didn't settle with Twitter for ~$50 a few weeks ago. His lawyer said there was a deal on the table but Musk refused because Twitter was demanding "all kinds of things." I assumed that they were demanding that he remove all contingencies and be on the hook for all the money even if financing fell through. If he was planning to no longer try to sabotage the deal then why didn't he agree? Maybe they really were demanding that he not pursue legal action against the board later.

 

[mongo]

Just so I'm clear.
The poison pill prevented anyone from acquiring 15% of TWTR without triggering massive dilution, including owning derivatives (call options).* Additionally, 13D requirements would alert us to further purchases.
However, 13D do not need to filed if someone purchases calls.
Is that correct?
If so, theoretically, Elon could have purchased 5% worth of calls giving him a discount on the those shares.
*Interesting clause, the poison pill is specifically called out as not applying to Board approved actions. In the wide case, that implies Elon could acquire TWTR calls at any percentage after the Board approved the merger agreement.

The Board adopted the Rights Agreement to protect stockholders from coercive or otherwise unfair takeover tactics. In general terms, it works by imposing a significant penalty upon any person or group that acquires 15 percent or more of the shares of Common Stock without the approval of the Board. As a result, the overall effect of the Rights Agreement and the issuance of the Rights may be to render more difficult or discourage a merger, tender or exchange offer or other business combination involving the Company that is not approved by the Board. However, neither the Rights Agreement nor the Rights should interfere with any merger, tender or exchange offer or other business combination approved by the Board.
Click to expand...

Regardless of the above, he could have sold >=$55 calls against his shares to raise more money.

 

[vikings123]

Just so I'm clear.
The poison pill prevented anyone from acquiring 15% of TWTR without triggering massive dilution, including owning derivatives (call options).* Additionally, 13D requirements would alert us to further purchases.
However, 13D do not need to filed if someone purchases calls.
Is that correct?
If so, theoretically, Elon could have purchased 5% worth of calls giving him a discount on the those shares.
*Interesting clause, the poison pill is specifically called out as not applying to Board approved actions. In the wide case, that implies Elon could acquire TWTR calls at any percentage after the Board approved the merger agreement.


Regardless of the above, he could have sold >=$55 calls against his shares to raise more money.

That's peanuts compared to the actual value of shares no? And that too OTM calls I don't know how much difference that makes.

 

[mongo]

That's peanuts compared to the actual value of shares no? And that too OTM calls I don't know how much difference that makes.

Depends what he did and when he did it. He could do spreads to lower the cost of shares and help fund that with over $54.20 call sales.
Similarly, others joining in could have increased derivative positions, no disclosure needed (AFAIK)

May risk SEC being annoyed, but drops were on public information.

May still only be a drop in the bucket, but might impact the need to raise more funds (which I don't think is the case)

 

[advocate8]

It’s happening!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1582860394401476609

Loving the part where he admits what the sane here have always known: He’s over-paying for Twitter,
Then he pulls his usual I am a magician so I will make it an order of magnitude more valuable stuff, but the part that is fact, and not speculative hyperbole is “we overpaid."

 

[wnorris]

May risk SEC being annoyed, but drops were on public information.

What would the SEC think if Elon sold shares this morning less than 24 hours after saying TSLA had a possible path to be worth more than the two largest companies in the world combined?

I'd imagine that would raise some SEC eyebrows. Curious if this is one reason for the rushed equity requests this morning.

 

[mongo]

What would the SEC think if Elon sold shares this morning less than 24 hours after saying TSLA had a possible path to be worth more than the two largest companies in the world combined?

I'd imagine that would raise some SEC eyebrows. Curious if this is one reason for the rushed equity requests this morning.

Given the stock dropped, it seems a hard hill to climb to claim pumping...

 

[Daniel in SD]

May risk SEC being annoyed, but drops were on public information.

It would still be an illegal "poop and scoop" scheme.

 

[bkp_duke]

Given the stock dropped, it seems a hard hill to climb to claim pumping...

If Elon were going to sell, it would have been when the stock was ~300, right after it came out that he will close TWTR under the original terms. I'm in the camp that he's not selling anymore (but I've been wrong before).


And I've said this before, but it bears repeating - he MAY NOT need to sell any TSLA to buy TWTR. The key is this: if he picked his share lots carefully when he sold the last two times, he should have zero tax burden. I'm specifically referring to the shares he bought when he exercised options late last year. Tax was paid on those options exercises, and his basis on those new shares would be higher than the price he sold at (actually generating him a tax loss to claim).

Now, if he was stupid and sold old old old share lots with a basis of like $10 or something, well, he's screwed and will pay > 50% tax on those.

Again, the devil is in the details. And only Elon and his brokerage know what lots were picked for those share sales.


But the difference is literally billions of dollars, possibly as much at $10B.

 

[mongo]

It would still be an illegal "poop and scoop" scheme.

If done with that intent.

 

[30seconds]

Just so I'm clear.
The poison pill prevented anyone from acquiring 15% of TWTR without triggering massive dilution, including owning derivatives (call options).* Additionally, 13D requirements would alert us to further purchases.
However, 13D do not need to filed if someone purchases calls.
Is that correct?
If so, theoretically, Elon could have purchased 5% worth of calls giving him a discount on the those shares.
*Interesting clause, the poison pill is specifically called out as not applying to Board approved actions. In the wide case, that implies Elon could acquire TWTR calls at any percentage after the Board approved the merger agreement.


Regardless of the above, he could have sold >=$55 calls against his shares to raise more money.

Acquirers are barred from holding non disclosed positions, including derivatives and any other arrangement. Different set of rules.

 

[EVNow]

What would the SEC think if Elon sold shares this morning less than 24 hours after saying TSLA had a possible path to be worth more than the two largest companies in the world combined?

I'd imagine that would raise some SEC eyebrows. Curious if this is one reason for the rushed equity requests this morning.

Insiders can't sell for 2 days after ER. Monday is earliest Musk can sell. See the finance thread.

 

[Boomer19]

For someone who is on the spectrum he sure is skilled at finding the nexus of pop culture and politics. Musk’s behavior and trajectory is closely tracking the cliches of being famous in America. The smart ones keep the celebrity machine at arm’s length, but he’s definitely addicted. So much so that he’s buying the means of fame production.

fate loves irony

 

[Daniel in SD]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1583263060013494272

I told you all. Never doubt Elon.

TWTR not down after hours so I guess this will probably amount to nothing but it is a good final act to this saga.

 

[ElectricIAC]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1583263060013494272

I told you all. Never doubt Elon.

TWTR not down after hours so I guess this will probably amount to nothing but it is a good final act to this saga.

 

[JRP3]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1583265823103234049

 

[Daniel in SD]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1583265823103234049

Of course but maybe not if Musk himself is blocked from owning Twitter.
(Not saying that is at all likely)

 

[Daniel in SD]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1583265275314843649

I was starting to lose hope of ever getting a beer from @AlanSubie4Life. With this and the next version of FSD predicted to be nearly perfect things have really turned around.

 

[Bet TSLA]

This possibility is certainly one of many that caused the Twitter board to object to putting off the trial. They certainly don't believe that Musk is acting in good faith at this point.