Elon & Twitter

[bkp_duke]

I'm in agreement they will probably leave CA, makes me wonder what all the folks slaving away there think of that very likely possibility?

If you bought a home in CA years ago, you're still up a ton in equity with locked in CA Prop 13 property taxes. TX housing is cheap, but property tax goes up every year as prices go up there. Property pretty much doesn't appreciate neither there at all.

It's also hard to give up on a low locked in mortgage from a while back as well. I refied last year for solar at sub 3%. Not getting that now for sure and good luck trying to tell Elon you're going to remote work in CA

You are correct, but Austin home values have doubled in the past 4 years. The market there has been driven hard by a large influx of people from Cali (shock). Even with that, prices are substantially lower than the bay area (but everywhere except NYC is cheaper than the bay area).

Living in SoCal, I can tell you that in the past 6 months property values have taken a hit here, some home a little (2-3%), some a lot (20%). It varies a lot by neighborhood.

And yes, I sort of feel "locked in" right now where I live as well. We have a 2.375% home loan, and the property is valued at ~2X what we paid for it 5 years ago. And then there is the killer view. As much as I hate the taxes in this state, that works to keep me where I am currently.

 

[tivoboy]

Here's what brand destruction looks like. US order backlog has gone from close to 200k at the end of July to just 60k at the end of November:

That’s also right about the time the IRA was signed and incentives were moved into 2023, so high correlation to EM is still hard to place..

trust me, I’m in the camp that actions HAVE taken most likely 350B of the 700B of stock loses this year out of the stock, but I think a combination of market forces, global macro, interest rate policies, IRA, China, etc. have lead to at least half the move down.

 

[SouthFLGuy]

That’s also right about the time the IRA was signed and incentives were moved into 2023, so high correlation to EM is still hard to place..

trust me, I’m in the camp that actions HAVE taken most likely 350B of the 700B of stock loses this year out of the stock, but I think a combination of market forces, global macro, interest rate policies, IRA, China, etc. have lead to at least half the move down.

Just buy some of those Trump NFT cards and you will make up losses in no time. /s

 

[STS-134]

That’s also right about the time the IRA was signed and incentives were moved into 2023, so high correlation to EM is still hard to place..

trust me, I’m in the camp that actions HAVE taken most likely 350B of the 700B of stock loses this year out of the stock, but I think a combination of market forces, global macro, interest rate policies, IRA, China, etc. have lead to at least half the move down.

We shall see. Tesla appears to have run out of runway in terms of unfilled orders. Just checked their website; for all 4 major models, there is no "Custom Order" link at the top of the page. The most prominent link is the "Buy Now" link which sends you to a list of existing inventory that is probably starting to pile up outside of the factory. Oh, and on top of the $3,750 rebate, they are also offering 10,000 free supercharging miles if you take delivery this month. To get to the "Custom Order" link, you have to scroll down quite a ways, and once you do click it, the earliest delivery times for custom orders show up as "Dec 2022". IF all or most of this lack of unfilled orders is due to the IRA, we should expect to see a spike in orders just after the new year, the "Buy Now" link should disappear, and quoted EDDs should suddenly be pushed back to March or later.

 

[ElectricIAC]

Just buy some of those Trump NFT cards and you will make up losses in no time. /s

Aren’t they sold out? Lol.

 

[ohmman]

You are correct, but Austin home values have doubled in the past 4 years. The market there has been driven hard by a large influx of people from Cali (shock). Even with that, prices are substantially lower than the bay area (but everywhere except NYC is cheaper than the bay area).

I lived in Austin for 20 years and moved to the Bay Area (North Bay, not peninsula) about 11 years ago. We bought a home on three acres in Sonoma, views of Sonoma Mountain and the Mayacamas from all angles, for almost half of what our Austin house sold for. The houses weren't comparable - our Austin home was a near zero energy custom home we built from scratch, but it was on a small city lot, and our home in Sonoma is a late 70s ranch. I always felt like those two things were out of whack, anyway. The last 11 years have had corrections, and while the Austin home has gone up tremendously in value, this property has caught up and then some as well. The values are now about equal.

COVID did a lot of weird things to real estate markets with so many people fleeing cities to nearby suburbs.

But the point that Austin real estate is not cheap is true and it's been true for some time. Austin has sprawl capacity, so on paper it can look cheap, but in reality if you want to be anywhere reasonably close to "Austin," it's not. And @sunwarriors point about property taxes is not to be taken lightly - we paid about $40k/year in property taxes in Austin, and checking online it appears the tax bill is closer to $60k/year now.

 

[bkp_duke]

We shall see. Tesla appears to have run out of runway in terms of unfilled orders. Just checked their website; for all 4 major models, there is no "Custom Order" link at the top of the page. The most prominent link is the "Buy Now" link which sends you to a list of existing inventory that is probably starting to pile up outside of the factory. Oh, and on top of the $3,750 rebate, they are also offering 10,000 free supercharging miles if you take delivery this month. To get to the "Custom Order" link, you have to scroll down quite a ways, and once you do click it, the earliest delivery times for custom orders show up as "Dec 2022". IF all or most of this lack of unfilled orders is due to the IRA, we should expect to see a spike in orders just after the new year, the "Buy Now" link should disappear, and quoted EDDs should suddenly be pushed back to March or later.

There is one, significant, flaw in this logic that I can think off immediately.

If we assume Tesla is true to their word, and they are unwinding the wave, which I expect to take more than one quarter, but regardless, then a natural byproduct of that will be a certain amount of "inventory" cars. The key is how long these inventory cars stick around. Right now, it's not that long, and the reason I say that is that I still get daily emails from a tracker I was using to buy a Model Y Perf. The cars that show up on that tracker have never in the past month been available for more than 4 days, and most gone the same day.

 

[STS-134]

There is one, significant, flaw in this logic that I can think off immediately.

If we assume Tesla is true to their word, and they are unwinding the wave, which I expect to take more than one quarter, but regardless, then a natural byproduct of that will be a certain amount of "inventory" cars. The key is how long these inventory cars stick around. Right now, it's not that long, and the reason I say that is that I still get daily emails from a tracker I was using to buy a Model Y Perf. The cars that show up on that tracker have never in the past month been available for more than 4 days, and most gone the same day.

Yeah but they had unfilled orders in the US of ~60k as of 2 weeks ago. To go from that to cars sitting outside the factory in just 2 weeks is problematic. It's one thing if this scenario exists in steady state but what's obvious right now is that they're producing cars way faster than the orders are coming in. If this continues after 1/1, then they're going to be forced to make some changes, which could include slowing the assembly line, lowering prices, or firing the CEO, depending on what they think is causing the lack of incoming orders.

 

[ElectricIAC]

I lived in Austin for 20 years and moved to the Bay Area (North Bay, not peninsula) about 11 years ago. We bought a home on three acres in Sonoma, views of Sonoma Mountain and the Mayacamas from all angles, for almost half of what our Austin house sold for. The houses weren't comparable - our Austin home was a near zero energy custom home we built from scratch, but it was on a small city lot, and our home in Sonoma is a late 70s ranch. I always felt like those two things were out of whack, anyway. The last 11 years have had corrections, and while the Austin home has gone up tremendously in value, this property has caught up and then some as well. The values are now about equal.

COVID did a lot of weird things to real estate markets with so many people fleeing cities to nearby suburbs.

But the point that Austin real estate is not cheap is true and it's been true for some time. Austin has sprawl capacity, so on paper it can look cheap, but in reality if you want to be anywhere reasonably close to "Austin," it's not. And @sunwarriors point about property taxes is not to be taken lightly - we paid about $40k/year in property taxes in Austin, and checking online it appears the tax bill is closer to $60k/year now.

Homestead exemption helps but for us, latest tax bill came out to $13,2 before appeal.

 

[ohmman]

Biased article.

1) Article includes infamous photo bombing by Maxwell at "2014 Vanity Fair Oscar Party Hosted By Graydon Carter" ie Grayden Carter probably invited her.
From wiki


2) Article doesn't adhere to journalistic ethics

3) Two sides arguing about policies & safety. Not enough information to draw definitive conclusions.

Arguments ad hominem (as are many that you've made in this thread to date). You've mentioned you're interested in the actual facts of the matter, which I do believe, so might I recommend addressing the points and not the source?

"Consider the source" doesn't generally mean "disqualify the argument."

 

[bkp_duke]

Yeah but they had unfilled orders in the US of ~60k as of 2 weeks ago. To go from that to cars sitting outside the factory in just 2 weeks is problematic. It's one thing if this scenario exists in steady state but what's obvious right now is that they're producing cars way faster than the orders are coming in. If this continues after 1/1, then they're going to be forced to make some changes, which could include slowing the assembly line, lowering prices, or firing the CEO, depending on what they think is causing the lack of incoming orders.

IRA - you have a LOT of people deferring till Jan 1.

Also, do you have the data source for the 60k? I haven't heard that number. Just estimates from people like Troy, who don't have the best track-record with those kinds of estimates.


Personal experience - our income is not close to qualify for the IRA, so we don't care and took delivery. A relative, they did try to defer (and were denied a second deferal). So they cancelled . . . and bought a 2020 CPO. So in the end, Tesla still got probably the same, or more, $$$ from them.


EDIT - and not a single family member has said anything about Twitter. Those that want the cars . . . they still want the cars.

EDIT 2 - Tesla has so many non-price levers they can pull in the long run, it's crazy. Like . . . bringing the new EU colors (Quicksilver, dark red, etc.) over to the USA would stoke sales. I would sell my current Model 3 for a dark red or quicksilver in a heartbeat.

 

[STS-134]

Also, do you have the data source for the 60k? I haven't heard that number. Just estimates from people like Troy, who don't have the best track-record with those kinds of estimates.

It did come from Troy: Thread by @TroyTeslike on Thread Reader App

Maybe Troy doesn't have the best track record but it's obvious that something has shifted given what I can see on Tesla's website. They're not telling you how much of a backlog they have but their actions suggest that they've either run out or are running out of backlog orders to fill.

 

[bkp_duke]

It did come from Troy: Thread by @TroyTeslike on Thread Reader App

Maybe Troy doesn't have the best track record but it's obvious that something has shifted given what I can see on Tesla's website. They're not telling you how much of a backlog they have but their actions suggest that they've either run out or are running out of backlog orders to fill.

Again, as I pointed out, a better metric is to track how long things sit in inventory. That is still very low. Inventory cars are still selling briskly.

And, as I also said, a natural by-product of unwiding the wave is that you will move from an all on-order system to having some cars in stock. It's not like Tesla has that many different configurations (they are the polar opposite of BMW, for example). 5 colors, 2 interior colors, +/- a 7 seat option. And then most people buy White for their color.

Tesla was missing out on sales because people didn't want to wait (i.e. just had a car accident, need something immediately - those people will not wait months for a car). Having some degree of cars in stock will stoke demand in and of itself.

 

[STS-134]

Elon Musk’s Twitter Suspends Reporter Who Has Investigated Him for Years​

Elon Musk’s Twitter Suspends Reporter Who Has Investigated Him for Years

STR/NurPhoto via Getty ImagesIt increasingly looks like self-described free speech absolutist Elon Musk is suspending Twitter users based on personal grudges instead of concrete principles. The latest victim: Insider columnist Linette Lopez, who has spent years aggressively covering Musk’s...

news.yahoo.com

Just googled "Linette Lopez Elon Musk" and found this, apparently posted last night:

She claims that she never tweeted anything related to elonjet but legal documents from years ago, and was suspended anyway.

There have been reports that some journalists have been reinstated as of this morning but her Twitter account is still suspended: https://twitter.com/lopezlinette

 

[Raisin45567]

Twitter needs a CEO ‘that isn’t Musk’ as Tesla stock suffers: Analyst

Wedbush Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst Dan Ives joins Yahoo Finance Live to discuss Tesla's stock woes ever since CEO Elon Musk acquired Twitter.

finance.yahoo.com

 

[trayloader]

Elon Musk’s Twitter Suspends Reporter Who Has Investigated Him for Years​

Elon Musk’s Twitter Suspends Reporter Who Has Investigated Him for Years

STR/NurPhoto via Getty ImagesIt increasingly looks like self-described free speech absolutist Elon Musk is suspending Twitter users based on personal grudges instead of concrete principles. The latest victim: Insider columnist Linette Lopez, who has spent years aggressively covering Musk’s...

news.yahoo.com

Just googled "Linette Lopez Elon Musk" and found this, apparently posted last night:

She claims that she never tweeted anything related to elonjet but legal documents from years ago, and was suspended anyway.

There have been reports that some journalists have been reinstated as of this morning but her Twitter account is still suspended: https://twitter.com/lopezlinette

Kicking this TESLAQ soldier out was a perfect move by Elon. He should do this with Henry Blodget et al too.

 

[ElectricIAC]

Kicking this TESLAQ soldier out was a perfect move by Elon. He should do this with Henry Blodget et al too.

+1, TSLAQ is a financial terrorist organization.

 

[Black Francis]

World's richest man. "CEO" of 3 companies, spends a not insignificant time replying to an account that posts his own quotes. lol

https://twitter.com/x/status/1603958973501263872

 

[STS-134]

Kicking this TESLAQ soldier out was a perfect move by Elon. He should do this with Henry Blodget et al too.

Notice how he didn't put forward any evidence that her reporting was wrong. Tells you something about Elon. Isn't that what should happen on the world's "digital town square", assuming he's got any evidence against her?

 

[Black Francis]

Biased article.

1. Did the journalists post his location in violation of his new rule (no)
2. Did he continue to falsely accuse them of this and use this as a pretense of banning (yes).
3. Is he a liar (years of proof of this)