So I think it all aligns pretty well. It does seem that the consumption graph does not match the trip meter. So that's part of it. If you use the trip statistics, and also take into account that the trip meter reads about 1% low typically (as metered by SMT and other methods), then it all works out.
My car has rated line at 250Wh/mi, rating is 245Wh/mi, and energy per displayed mile (what matters!) is 234Wh/mi.
This trip used 368Wh/mi (which is about 371.7Wh/mi actually as mentioned above).
So that means I should have used: 371.7Wh/mi / 234Wh/rmi = 1.588rmi/mi, so for this 15.0mi trip: 1.588rmi/mi*15mi = 23.8 rmi.
The trip actually consumed 24.0 rated miles. So that's off by 0.8%. Fairly close though maybe there is still some discrepancy.
You can see here the 15-mile consumption does not match the trip meter (359Wh/mi vs. 368Wh/mi, a big difference) as mentioned above. This is a big part of the reason probably for the original question & noted discrepancy.
I have yet to make sense of the consumption "expectations" vs. the rated. The way I read this, the car had a "rating" of 1.2 miles of Climate use for this drive (I was 0.9miles above with 2.1 miles of usage, so the "rating" was 1.2miles). I'm not sure if that is a baseline built into the vehicle rating (what was measured in EPA testing) or what. Maybe someone can explain how those number are derived but it's not the original question here.
The consumption graph, I do believe shows driving only. It does NOT show HVAC or battery warming or other draws like lights and radio. As such I find the consumption graph misleading and overly optimistic.
I hadn't noticed this in the past, but maybe that is the case - I hardly ever use HVAC so maybe I never noticed the discrepancy vs. the trip meter seen above. I'll have to repeat the above experiment with the HVAC & other things off for the same trip to see whether that brings them into better alignment.