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WTI $77 /bbl
Brent $84 /bbl
NL TTF gas €53 /MWh (EU Natural Gas - 2022 Data - 2010-2021 Historical - 2023 Forecast - Price - Quote)

Europe is heading close to the end of the winter season with storage about 69% full, much above the 10-year average of 54% for this time of the year.

Not mankind's first rodeo, (spolier alert : previous ones ended badly)

Big oil, big profits

Genuine vehicle packs, not often done, more talked about

Astroturf inbound

More of that 536 GW of solar per year
see also

Circular blades breakthrough (not just applicable to wind)

Inverter failure rates keep falling

The other big dig
 
WTI $79 /bbl
Brent $85 /bbl
NL TTF gas €53 /MWh (EU Natural Gas - 2022 Data - 2010-2021 Historical - 2023 Forecast - Price - Quote)

IMF wants understanding

EU committee stage approval

Russian oil production cut

Even more Chinese solar production capacity, 35GW this time

Russian rail shunning
 
WTI $79 /bbl
Brent $86 /bbl
NL TTF gas €52 /MWh (EU Natural Gas - 2022 Data - 2010-2021 Historical - 2023 Forecast - Price - Quote)

China-Qatar gas deal inbound

Dutch switch

German offshore grid moves

BP blocking offshore wind ........ (imho)
 
WTI $78 /bbl
Brent $85 /bbl
NL TTF gas €53 /MWh (EU Natural Gas - 2022 Data - 2010-2021 Historical - 2023 Forecast - Price - Quote)

Sanctions matter

US-EU

2022 EV sales info

Estonia SMR

US nacelles up

US coal down

Ukraine - Poland rail
 
WTI $78 /bbl
Brent $84 /bbl
NL TTF gas €55 /MWh (EU Natural Gas - 2022 Data - 2010-2021 Historical - 2023 Forecast - Price - Quote)

Sadly as predicted, still so

Buckets of cash, global scale

US grid wranges, follow the money

US licensing wedge ......

Looser hydrogen eligibility rules, who would have guessed that might happen !

Solar business cycle, reading the runes

€2bn, small change in a world of floaters

Trans-Russia rail : total destruction ? (except Hungary, duh)

UK rail Con wreck continues
 
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WTI $78 /bbl
Brent $85 /bbl
NL TTF gas €52 /MWh (EU Natural Gas - 2022 Data - 2010-2021 Historical - 2023 Forecast - Price - Quote)

Trumper going

Tesla partially opens up US charger network

Testing 15MW

New electrolyser

Iron-chromium flow battery

More US-IRA consequences

China solar

Doom loop reports
 
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WTI $75 /bbl
Brent $82 /bbl
NL TTF gas €49 /MWh (EU Natural Gas - 2022 Data - 2010-2021 Historical - 2023 Forecast - Price - Quote)

Natural gas futures in Europe touched €49.5 a megawatt-hour on Friday, the lowest intraday level since September 1st 2021, and are heading to end the week nearly 7% lower, as Europe's energy crisis seems to be over for now. Europe is heading close to the end of the winter season with storage about 65% full, much above the 10-year average of 54% for this time of the year, due to warmer-than-usual temperatures, record LNG imports, and a rise in power generation from alternative energy sources including wind and nuclear. Also, energy-saving efforts by homes and factories helped to avoid an energy deficit. Fresh data showed gas demand in Germany was around 8% lower at the beginning of February than the four-year average while in 2022. Meanwhile, Europe continues to look for alternatives to Russian gas supplies, including Qatar and Oman while the second-largest US LNG exporter Freeport resumed shipments.

Another hydrogen bait and switch

EU shows teeth

1.2 GW for Chile

Tax, banks, money ......... (all this is in a sense linked to the ongoing post-Bretton Woods revisiting that is underway)

US SPR

Auctions drive batteries

SMR blurb

Trad utilities will fight

Australian big wind

Spanish big wind

Heat pump complexity

Belarus rail under pressure
 
WTI $77 /bbl
Brent $83 /bbl
NL TTF gas €51 /MWh (EU Natural Gas - 2022 Data - 2010-2021 Historical - 2023 Forecast - Price - Quote)

Motor vehicle manufacturing transition may be over by 2030
1676895549933.png


China produced 288.7 GW of modules, 827,000 MT of polysilicon, 357 GW of wafers and 318 GW of solar cells, in 2022

UK struggles to actually make stuff

Heat pumps are go

Linear solar growth graphs abound

German hydrogen nexus

Shingle solar
 
WTI $77 /bbl
Brent $83 /bbl
NL TTF gas €48 /MWh (EU Natural Gas - 2022 Data - 2010-2021 Historical - 2023 Forecast - Price - Quote)

Next winter is coming

West fully for Ukraine, Biden inc

.... and Italy Meloni

Chinese wind big offshore

India still not doing it on wind and solar

Finnish VPP, not Tesla it seems

UK solar installs doubling despite no subsidies; and almost all with a battery system (again unsubsidised) - and very little Powerwall
UK added 555 MW of new solar in 2022

Koper port double track rail - this may in the future assist Tesla imports that use this port

Long duration keeps coming

CATL tries it on
 
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WTI $76 /bbl
Brent $82 /bbl
NL TTF gas €50 /MWh (EU Natural Gas - 2022 Data - 2010-2021 Historical - 2023 Forecast - Price - Quote)

START suspended

Russia sanctions

National state of disaster : South Africa

Hydrogen rules

Dodos in sight ?

Mercury versus coal

Portugal (and Spain) will be an interesting case study
and


Unlimited nuke lifetimes !

Big nukes, big losses

Widespread heat

75% reduction for Kalingrad, ouch

Trieste runs increase (might also affect Tesla, perhaps)

Go Ukraine rail

Long term trends
(see The Resource Angle )

1677070126463.png
 
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So we know that CATL is selling cells at price points below the graph, but how does the cell costs translate into pack costs?
Remember the yellow line is the average, whereas the blue is likely to be more representative of best price to biggest client.

Cell : Pack was 70:30 now heading towards 80:20

 
WTI $74 /bbl
Brent $81 /bbl
NL TTF gas €50 /MWh (EU Natural Gas - 2022 Data - 2010-2021 Historical - 2023 Forecast - Price - Quote)

--- EDIT - to add ---:
Eskom CEO gone early, apparently he objected to political corruption too publically
or
or
----------------------

Fraccers back off

US-IRA tempts Tesla (and doing three things at once was a bit too much)
or

Long wait for commercial floaters

Utlities ask for extra dosh for storage

Working EV chargers wanted, what a surprise

Fossil blocks, unblocking now wanted by incumbents

Awfully small seeds

Clearly the UK subsidy wasn't enough
.... to keep the Chinese interested
or
 
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At the heart of the Tesla news is that the 4680 process woes continue. I had hoped the the semi announcement was a proxy for Tesla having solved the 4680 problem and shifting 2170 at Reno to the semi. Now it seems we will see more LFP in Tesla’s lower range models. They have some 4680 production it is just not clear how much- what it does have has underwhelmed from an energy POV. Manufacturing wise it enables a shift to the castings/structural packs and has fewer weld points so some cost savings.

So Mr sailor man I feel even more strongly that in replies to 1&2 (from your grand post) are Yes and No
 
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WTI $76 /bbl
Brent $83 /bbl
NL TTF gas €53 /MWh (EU Natural Gas - 2022 Data - 2010-2021 Historical - 2023 Forecast - Price - Quote)

Lest we forget, one year on

First Polish Leopards arrive in Ukraine

EU carbon credit market shows teeth

Siemens 15MW up

EU sets rail rules, firmly

Belarus smuggling ? Shocked am I
 
So sodium ion batteries are into cars


JAC is a state backed company, FYI. So is the battery maker.

Dont know if anyone is looking at that site, batteriesnews. They seem to just scrape and post but maybe a quick way to look at news. However it seems sparse considering all the announcements and work going on.

In terms of sodium CATL was at 160wh last year, 250 would put it at LFP energy density. I could see them moving into stationary storage soon.
 
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Not really sure where to post this @petit_bateau but in answer to question #1 on your battery post- this article does have some specific news on exploration of Lithium in the NA market but it's not news that can't be found by delving into each companies news releases. It does seems that exploration in Canada is going really well to date. The hangup on Lithium really seems the refining, I'd look to see more news on lithium refining in both the EU and NA if the players are serious this seems to be the point to attack- but it also leaves you vulnerable to China dumping products to gain marketshare.
 
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Not really sure where to post this @petit_bateau but in answer to question #1 on your battery post- this article does have some specific news on exploration of Lithium in the NA market but it's not news that can't be found by delving into each companies news releases. It does seems that exploration in Canada is going really well to date. The hangup on Lithium really seems the refining, I'd look to see more news on lithium refining in both the EU and NA if the players are serious this seems to be the point to attack- but it also leaves you vulnerable to China dumping products to gain marketshare.
I suspect people don't really grasp the scale of the lithium/etc demand. For automotive we need to go about 20x from current situation by 2030. Depending on how one goes about things that could quite reasonably be 100x by 2040 when one adds in stationary, or even more.

I'll have more precise figures soon. I've finally given in and built a world energy model for what I am increasingly considering is the on-trend scenario of the fast-change transfer which basically eliminates all fossil fuels completely by 2040. I'm just completing debugging now.
 
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I suspect people don't really grasp the scale of the lithium/etc demand. For automotive we need to go about 20x from current situation by 2030. Depending on how one goes about things that could quite reasonably be 100x by 2040 when one adds in stationary, or even more.

I'll have more precise figures soon. I've finally given in and built a world energy model for what I am increasingly considering is the on-trend scenario of the fast-change transfer which basically eliminates all fossil fuels completely by 2040. I'm just completing debugging now.
Excellent. Might I suggest/request that you commercialize that? Iron batteries and Sodium will surely move into the stationary market this year in some significant way, the very very beginning of an S curve would be my guess. In a few years these could capture much of the stationary market. it would be nice to leave the Lithium for mobility, at least as much as possible (markets such as frequency stabilization may require energy performance that the iron solutions are unable to fill for instance- just a guess).

Also I suspect that stationary storage will compete with solar production/wind production. At some points we are better off to produce energy with PVs even in winter and accept high transport losses than build batteries storage. Tony Sebas very high level guesstamets are, I think, probably correct in this regard though he lacks data. For example Build enough solar so that at 8 am in Texas you already have enough solar to meet all needs, so by 10am you are grossly over producing. These comments aren't for you but for the thread and other readers.