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WTI $76 /bbl
Brent $83 /bbl
NL TTF gas €49 /MWh (EU Natural Gas - 2022 Data - 2010-2021 Historical - 2023 Forecast - Price - Quote)

Lest we forget

Brent wanted

Nickel surplus ?

Lithium surplus

China claims 90%

Regulatory capture very obviously valuable
and

Hydrogen hopium, reality
and

100m monopiles ?

Indian coal failures signal Indian renewables failures, still

China coal
and

Bulgaria rail

Franco-Spanish third rail (that station in the photo is just bonkers if you ever visit it)

Naughty Belarus

Brexshit consequences never ending

Hope, there is .... (some of my results for current global adoption trends)

1677503469095.png


1677503528811.png
 
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So I saw a solar peaked announcement last week for a project along the Mexican USA border. 670mwh of storage (mega packs for now) 160mw solar panels. First time I can recall seeing battery capacity so much in excess of production capacity so that the entire project really replaces a gas peaker . Sure they may still have some excess solar discharge. It really this is all about time shifting low value solar to peak demand in early evenings.


Where I saw it, had to dig a bit to find the planned capacity
 
So I saw a solar peaked announcement last week for a project along the Mexican USA border. 670mwh of storage (mega packs for now) 160mw solar panels. First time I can recall seeing battery capacity so much in excess of production capacity so that the entire project really replaces a gas peaker . Sure they may still have some excess solar discharge. It really this is all about time shifting low value solar to peak demand in early evenings.


Where I saw it, had to dig a bit to find the planned capacity
Yeah, that is 4-hours duration at max inverter rating. That is the new normal for a lot of utility solar projects.

Here in the UK about 95% of domestic sloar installs are going in with batteries, it simply doesn't make sense otherwise now. They are typically 4kW solar with 10-12kWh storage, i.e. 3-hour duration.

It goes fast from here :)
 
Yeah, that is 4-hours duration at max inverter rating. That is the new normal for a lot of utility solar projects.

Here in the UK about 95% of domestic sloar installs are going in with batteries, it simply doesn't make sense otherwise now. They are typically 4kW solar with 10-12kWh storage, i.e. 3-hour duration.

It goes fast from here :)
Where does the 95% domestic number come from? It's much higher than I would have guessed.
 
Where does the 95% domestic number come from? It's much higher than I would have guessed.
From talking with installers and suppliers.

A little secret, hiding in plain sight, is that no-one in the UK gathers any data on domestic (residential) battery installs. It is not on any info that the installers send to MCS. It is not on any info that either the installer or the home owner send to the DNO. The govermnent and the utilities simply don't know*. I can phone around my contacts list and get more info in an hour than anybody in government or running the electricity grid is even vaguely interested in finding out.

I've got a little spreadsheet for the UK market that records the approximate year-by-year swing in this number for the UK. It is quite a swing.

That's why distributors place £20m orders with manufacturers for container loads of residential battery systems. Repeatedly.

The underlying reason is because exports are sold for a trivial amount (£0.03 or something) whereas imports are about £0.34/kWh at present. For the example of my own house that is worth about £600/yr, so a 10-year payback in cash terms. Which happens to be in the magic range of 7-10 year paybacks that cause most folk to press the buy button (speaking from experience in this market).

* the only one vaguely interested is HMRC !
 
WTI $77 /bbl
Brent $83 /bbl
NL TTF gas €47 /MWh (EU Natural Gas - 2022 Data - 2010-2021 Historical - 2023 Forecast - Price - Quote)

NordStream FUD flying

Grid scale storage : data
(EM-GlobalData has 2022 utility scale at 26 GW; I estimated 20GWh. BNEF estimate was higher (30GWh). It is unclear whether EM-GD has an estimate or a data-backed actual; and it is unclear whether they mean GW or GWh .......... )

Russia sanctions
.... and ... evading sanctions via Turkey

Don't stop now

Guilty flyers, no end in sight

Mainstream media sensing lithium story

US grid still messed up

German offshore grid moves

Pretty normal, yet another solar company nigh-on doubling

Rig count down (JohnKempReuters)

Uk utility solar new normal

India - very limited ambitions

Crikey, actual progress in South Africa, maybe

Please no to deep seabed mining
 
WTI $76 /bbl
Brent $82 /bbl
NL TTF gas €47 /MWh (EU Natural Gas - 2022 Data - 2010-2021 Historical - 2023 Forecast - Price - Quote)

ZNPP woes
and

Sanctions tussles

Solar performance - worsening or not ?
- these folks say yes
- but my capacity factor trend calculation suggests no
1677672725680.png

- I think what is happening is that the projects they are analysing are perhaps not meeting their financial prospectus predictions, but that globally solar PV is improving

15MW floater, conventional semisub

Chinese wind

BMW expects to survive at least 7-years, .... on hydrogen

Battery recycling, your loan gte in their hands

Indian solar +15GW (vs world at +268GW) ......... so not fast enough

.... because, Indian coal

Storage control

UAE nuke goes quickly

UK nuke goes slowly

Japanese nuke favour

Dreadful accident in Greece

China-Russia axis

US derail more info
 
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WTI $78 /bbl
Brent $84 /bbl
NL TTF gas €47 /MWh (EU Natural Gas - 2022 Data - 2010-2021 Historical - 2023 Forecast - Price - Quote)

Tesla reconfirms 20m in 2030 ambitions etc

Global energy-related CO2 emissions grew by 0.9% or 321 Mt in 2022, reaching a new high of over 36.8 Gt.

Simple cycle high, USA

Ooops, 10GW trip, Argentina

Another day, another 1.6GW wind

Uk wind bleats

Juicy French FITs

People increasingly keen on offshore solar

Surely not ?

not good reading

(done now, waiting on chembolts)
 
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WTI $78 /bbl
Brent $84 /bbl
NL TTF gas €45 /MWh (EU Natural Gas - 2022 Data - 2010-2021 Historical - 2023 Forecast - Price - Quote)

Winter is coming

Problems ahead with Russia nuclear

UK VPP SolarEdge

Storage boom
and

The airborne wind thing

Tesla not-neo

Islands

Slovenia-China-rail : the first trans-Caspian China-Europe train from Jiaozhou, in eastern China, to the port of Koper, in Slovenia. The convoy, loaded with new electric vehicles, covered the 13,000-kilometre route in 45 days.
 
If you pull up the UK 2022 solar install data from MCS there were 130,596 PV installs done of which 106,671 were domestic.


A typical system is 4kW and these days 95% of them get an approx 10 kWh battery. Plus there are quite a lot of battery retrofits going into existing systems, so for simplicity let's say that all newbuild get 10kWh. This represents approximately a 2h battery sizing (strictly speaking 2.5h but many folk set upper and lower buffers). So that is 0.4 GW x 1.0 GWh of domestic battery install in UK in 2022.

To put that in perspective the UK grid just contracted via auction for 5 GW x approx 10 GWh grid capacity for delivery in five years time ! (I'm simplifying the auction data to assume all avge 2h systems). But by then the domestic build rate will be approx 3 GWh/yr at current mkt growth rates (this is likely a low estimate as a I expect things to accelerate)


Now you can see why the VPP effort is gathering pace everywhere :

 
In yesterday's IEA release it noted that "Renewables met 90% of last year’s global growth in electricity generation". Out of interest I pulled the corresponding number up from my model which is 75%. The difference is that IEA has the 2022 actuals whereas I only have my 2022 forecast. Anyway very soon that number will repeatedly be over 100%, which is the point at which fossils are in irrecoverable decline even as electrification grows. Also from that point on the emissions from electrical energy are diminishing even as electricity use grows. By the way nuclear is barely growing, that is why the blue and the orange lines are pretty similar.

1677858014517.png




 
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WTI $78 /bbl
Brent $84 /bbl
NL TTF gas €42 /MWh (EU Natural Gas - 2022 Data - 2010-2021 Historical - 2023 Forecast - Price - Quote)

EU automotive - 2035 problems
and

EU / US-IRA stuff

UK woes

More UK woes

German solar installs almost doubling (this is a common theme for many places)

Grid forecasting renewables

Remote solar, very

Danish off and on

Miners out the way

China coal
 
  • Informative
Reactions: navguy12
WTI $80 /bbl
Brent $86 /bbl
NL TTF gas €42 /MWh (EU Natural Gas - 2022 Data - 2010-2021 Historical - 2023 Forecast - Price - Quote)

Food matters

Digital ecosystem ... meets market failures

Transmission wanted

Long duration hope/

Spanish renewables rise, note how it really is swinging towards solar and a summer glut is emerging

... and in USA, and note also the battery rise

(if we don't soon address permitting issues for wind there is going to be a real winter problem, globally)

Real island steps

OPEC-shale duo dance

BP seeks added value

Russian leakage
 
WTI $77 /bbl
Brent $83 /bbl
NL TTF gas €43 /MWh (EU Natural Gas - 2022 Data - 2010-2021 Historical - 2023 Forecast - Price - Quote)

NordStream rumours, unclearness

ZNPP rotation

EU : US-IRA response beginning to emerge

Dollar switching

Good German heat pump grid integration modelling

... and UK bad

French Med floaters

India woes

Turkey EV tariffs

French nuclear
and

Orkney gets only 220MW

Hydrogen coal nonsense

Shenyang rail hub
 
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WTI $77 /bbl
Brent $83 /bbl
NL TTF gas €41 /MWh (EU Natural Gas - 2022 Data - 2010-2021 Historical - 2023 Forecast - Price - Quote)

Russia targets Ukraine energy (again, a war crime)

EU carbon definitions

Indonesia coal woes

US coal woes

India coal woes
and not enough and not fast enough on the clean stuff .......

UK keeps on struggling on rail projects

.... and Greek rail

Brazil rail (inc for mining .........)