ER Bingo

[Buckminster]

These need to be solid mentions - steak more than sizzle.

 

[FrankSG]

Excluding questions on the call? I think Model Y delivery date has a decent chance (although they could say within next 2-3 weeks or before end of Feb instead of precise date), but I doubt Tesla will mention any of the others on their own.

Maybe some comments as to progress on feature complete, but no date.

 

[lklundin]

'Feature complete date' can refer to many things, so I guess FSD?

 

[Buckminster]

'Feature complete date' can refer to many things, so I guess FSD?

Yep

 

[StealthP3D]

That's a bad list because it's too binary. It's also shockingly incomplete. I have to call it how I see it.

Investor sentiment (and thus share price) will not be driven by buzzwords or predictions, it's how the results are presented, how credible Elon comes off. Every sign points to a guy that has turned the corner, who is embracing the world as it is today, in order to get us to the world we want, tomorrow. That he's a talented and sober, hard-working, hands-on guy that is forging a new reality right before our eyes. His "credibility quotient" has recently been upgraded. Under-promise, over-deliver. If the results, and the manner in which they are presented, further improve Musk's "credibility quotient" and make the company's future (which has already been laid out) more believable, more credible, then the stock will soar. It will be a "Musk must own" stock.

Most of us already believe in the mission, the company and Musk's ability to achieve it. The presentation is for the skeptical and the misguided, not for us.

Of course, the legwork must have already been done to produce the necessary results. Putting lipstick on a pig is just not going to cut it.

 

[dc_h]

I think it’s a good list. Some likely not a focus, but they have a lot of good news to report. I think GF5 will be a surprise, or they will say an announcement will be forthcoming in February. Model Y deliveries will start January 3or February 1. The Model S/X refresh green on Twitter seems like too much good news, but would be awesome. I think it’s Pre-Plaid, but there was also the code update showing the new 85 pack I thought Jason Hughes had found. I don’t see on his twitter feed, so don’t have doc.
I do think GF5 will be announced in NC, where the story about the site prep A Tesla expansion in North Carolina? It could be on the table. The cyber truck plant should be less expensive the GF3 and GF4 and the site is fully prepped for construction.
I think the options and tax change is more likely Q1 or Q2. Q1 could have unusual risks, so Q2 would be a more conservative and safe time to make this change.
I think Elon will also announce outrageous production targets for 2020, just like 2019. I think he will target 600,000 to 750,000, which will sound as crazy as 360-400k did last year.

Who knows about battery day, but the 3rd row podcast seems to imply they are close to having real products from Maxwell coming soon. Soon to Elon isn’t usually 2-3 years, so I would expect some new cell production this year based on Maxwell tech and part of path to doubling, or more, of production for the next 5 years, which gets them to 1.6TW by end of 2025.

Missing is Semi production. Will they make 10 trucks this year, 100, 1000 or more? Corporate customers are anxious to get the truck and customers like UPS even need this for survival as Amazon ramps up, so the Semi is an existential product for shippers.
FSD, Roadster and Solar developments are also big unknowns, as is Q1 guidance, which against strong year guidance, could be targeted lower then we expect. This earnings should be very exciting and a Pandora’s box for shorts and ICE incorporated.

 

[Buckminster]

 

[LN1_Casey]

Did anyone make bingo?

 

[Buckminster]

So how did we do collectively? Just 2 wrong (in red) by my estimation (<50% and wrong or >50% and right). Elon was also right - retailer investors know stuff.

What words will be mentioned in either the update or call?
Poll closed Tuesday at 7:25 AM.

1. 
   Taking deferred tax profits
   7 vote(s)
   21.9%
2. 
   Sold call profits
   0 vote(s)
   0.0%
3. 
   FCA payments
   10 vote(s)
   31.3%
4. 
   Date for powertrain and battery day
   23 vote(s)
   71.9%
5. 
   Feature complete date
   18 vote(s)
   56.3%
6. 
   New giga location
   4 vote(s)
   12.5%
7. 
   Alien dreadnought
   1 vote(s)
   3.1%
8. 
   Model Y delivery date
   31 vote(s)
   96.9%
9. 
   #Cybertruck preorders
   15 vote(s)
   46.9%
10. 
    Solar roof ramp to 1000/week date
    22 vote(s)
    68.8%
11. 
    Project Dojo
    6 vote(s)
    18.8%
12. 
    Recognition of FSD payments date
    6 vote(s)
    18.8%