EU Market Situation and Outlook

[DaveT]

Likely under 3.5 seconds. My P85+ is already under 4.0 seconds, without AWD.:biggrin:

Hey vgrinshpun (or others), what's your guess on the 0-60mph times for the Model X AWD (non-performance) and the Model X AWD Performance?

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Top speed by itself is not so much of a problem. Limited range at high speed much more so.

I went 600 km from Nuremburg to Berlin with only 1 SC along the way. I do not feel limited on the first (ca. 200 km) leg. But on the second leg 130 km/h is too much.

I think AWD w/two motors should help with the range problem at high speeds since the load will be spread out between the two motors allowing each motor to run at a lower rpm. Overall, my guess is the AWD system will allow for better range at higher speeds.

 

[abasile]

I think AWD w/two motors should help with the range problem at high speeds since the load will be spread out between the two motors allowing each motor to run at a lower rpm. Overall, my guess is the AWD system will allow for better range at higher speeds.

This might help some, but I expect the difference will be marginal since the existing motor is already quite efficient. Further aerodynamic improvements to help range are likely out of the question for the next few years (the current aerodynamics are already quite impressive). I think the only way to gain substantial range increases at high speeds will be by adding battery capacity. A 120 kWh battery would certainly help on the Autobahn.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Top speed by itself is not so much of a problem. Limited range at high speed much more so.

I went 600 km from Nuremburg to Berlin with only 1 SC along the way. I do not feel limited on the first (ca. 200 km) leg. But on the second leg 130 km/h is too much.

Johann, at the risk of going slightly off topic, what's your range experience @130kmh on the highway? I know it's never a constant 130, plus there is elevation, wind, etc., but what is the "real European highway range"?

 

[DaveT]

This might help some, but I expect the difference will be marginal since the existing motor is already quite efficient. Further aerodynamic improvements to help range are likely out of the question for the next few years (the current aerodynamics are already quite impressive). I think the only way to gain substantial range increases at high speeds will be by adding battery capacity. A 120 kWh battery would certainly help on the Autobahn.

It will be interesting to see the range of the Model S AWD at high speeds vs the range of the Model S rear-wheel drive at high speeds. If someone was driving on the autobahn at over 100mph+, my guess would be that the AWD would get substantially better range than the non-AWD Model S.

I ran across this video the other day and found it really interesting. If you're busy, just watch from 0:55. The Tesla employee shares how having two motors can be more efficient than having just one.

 

[mrdoubleb]

I do not know if this has been linked before, but there is a wealth of good data on European car sales over at the ACEA (European Automobile Manufacturer's Association). The only bad news for us is that as Tesla sales are still small over here, so it's under "other". However, their statistics do show the trends in the EU27 + Iceland, Norway and Switzerland and we can even see how Tesla's main competitors are doing by brand.

The latest statistics released 4 days ago show a steady increase of EU car sales for about a year now - good news for us, I guess. Some of the highlights:

 

[maxwell]

Just read this article: Germans say to electric cars - Energy Ticker - MarketWatch

It says that "In the next five years, German carmakers are expected to build 440,000 electric cars a year,..."

That's more or less the timeframe of the Gen. III. Sure they have enough production capacity in terms of more or less flexible production, and let's assume that they accomplish a good motor and controller, BUT:
Does anybody have a clue where they plan to get the batteries from? I read in other threads the gigafactories will be a major advantage for TESLA and i remember a sentence, but can't find the source, that "every month the "others" don't have a huge battery-factory, will be a head start for TESLA".

 

[chillong]

Some pretty big changes on the supercharger map for Europe for winter 14/15. Thats some commitment to Europe! Central Europe is pretty well covered now
Supercharger | Tesla Motors

 

[NigelM]

Just read this article: Germans say to electric cars - Energy Ticker - MarketWatch

It says that "In the next five years, German carmakers are expected to build 440,000 electric cars a year,..."
....
Does anybody have a clue where they plan to get the batteries from?

Welcome to TMC. Excellent question but no, I don't think it's been thought through, especially by the journalist.

 

[Robert.Boston]

Some pretty big changes on the supercharger map for Europe for winter 14/15. Thats some commitment to Europe! Central Europe is pretty well covered now
Supercharger | Tesla Motors

I find it odd that Tesla is so densely blanketing some markets whilst entirely ignoring others. Germans like to holiday on the Spanish coast, but they'll have to leave their Teslas at home? And no trips up to the Baltics or down to Greece?

 

[hobbes]

I'm thinking that the extra motor will significantly improve top speed since two motors will be running together.

From what I understand the top speed is not limited by power output, but by maximum RPMs with just one gear. Actually I guess when accelerating at a low speed, the power output is much higher than driving constantly at a high speed. So with a second motor, the main advantage is that you have four wheels to transfer the torque onto the road, so I would bet on greater acceleration (if the vehicle mass doesn´t go up too much), not higher top speed.

 

[chillong]

I find it odd that Tesla is so densely blanketing some markets whilst entirely ignoring others. Germans like to holiday on the Spanish coast, but they'll have to leave their Teslas at home? And no trips up to the Baltics or down to Greece?

well, Elon's stated goal was to win the german market and for that you need a very dense SC distribution (High speed autobahn, germans attraction to cheap/free things). I think it makes sense to start building a dense network in central europe, where also the most potential buyers are waiting. And with that network, people can easily reach Italy, the Alps, southern France and even the Costa Brava. With these areas covered, most holiday areas are covered for the norwegian, dutch and germans. This is only winter 14/15, I hope they wont stop building SC after so Baltics, Eastern Europe, Spain, Southern Italy etc. can be covered.

 

[maxwell]

Thank you. It's a pleasure to be here. I try to find out more. Short introduction of mine: 0.03k years old, passioned engineer, i have many parallels to the "Oatmeal-Comic" because i'm luckily not talented with combustion things. I own no Model S, saving for it.

I hardly can imagine, that those mighty and intelligent companies do not prepare and sometimes waste their engineering-power with ICEs. A friend of mine is developing clutches, how boooring! Elon is right, they need competition to start EVs. Somebody has to show them.

I experienced many times that even richer people whom i try to convince to order a TESLA, want to wait until a german brand has a good one. "i can't come up with an american car" is unfortunately a frequent part of the answer. It's really an image-thing here.

 

[SebastianR]

I experienced many times that even richer people whom i try to convince to order a TESLA, want to wait until a german brand has a good one. "i can't come up with an american car" is unfortunately a frequent part of the answer. It's really an image-thing here.

I think the key is to make sure that Germans disassociate Tesla from GM (and other horrible US car makers) and associate Tesla with Apple and other high-tech US brands that are (even) recognized in Germany. Also, don't ever underestimate the power of a proper Probefahrt. Once you sat in a Tesla and experience the acceleration, the smooth ride and the vibration-free mode of transportation things will change. They will change slowly (it is Germany after all) but they will change.

 

[maxwell]

I think the key is to make sure that Germans disassociate Tesla from GM (and other horrible US car makers) and associate Tesla with Apple and other high-tech US brands that are (even) recognized in Germany. Also, don't ever underestimate the power of a proper Probefahrt. Once you sat in a Tesla and experience the acceleration, the smooth ride and the vibration-free mode of transportation things will change. They will change slowly (it is Germany after all) but they will change.

Exactly. Many of them like silicon valley technology. Go for PROBEFAHRT!

 

[Auzie]

Thank you. It's a pleasure to be here. I try to find out more. Short introduction of mine: 0.03k years old, passioned engineer, i have many parallels to the "Oatmeal-Comic" because i'm luckily not talented with combustion things. I own no Model S, saving for it.

I hardly can imagine, that those mighty and intelligent companies do not prepare and sometimes waste their engineering-power with ICEs. A friend of mine is developing clutches, how boooring! Elon is right, they need competition to start EVs. Somebody has to show them.

I experienced many times that even richer people whom i try to convince to order a TESLA, want to wait until a german brand has a good one. "i can't come up with an american car" is unfortunately a frequent part of the answer. It's really an image-thing here.

It is a great pleasure to have you here maxwell.

Clutches design job is perhaps not the coolest job around, but your clutches designer friend might be getting some good karma points there .

Regarding Tesla winning German market, it might not be so difficult. I would expect the nation that has engineering in its genes to recognize and appreciate a good piece of engineering, regardless of where it comes from.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

BUT:
Does anybody have a clue where they plan to get the batteries from? I read in other threads the gigafactories will be a major advantage for TESLA and i remember a sentence, but can't find the source, that "every month the "others" don't have a huge battery-factory, will be a head start for TESLA".

I guess you read my post here: Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014 - Page 432

Yes I would love to hear where they plan to take the batteries Making bold claims is one way to try to stop people from buying Teslas. The rumored Audi Q8 with 600 km range and cheaper than Tesla and the GM claims of Tesla comparable range car in 1-2 years are what's usually called vaporware. It's just bold claims and no content to it and is just designed to disturb the marketplace and buy time. But if they want to build 440k cars, they're welcome to it, just need to start producing a factory for it

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I find it odd that Tesla is so densely blanketing some markets whilst entirely ignoring others. Germans like to holiday on the Spanish coast, but they'll have to leave their Teslas at home? And no trips up to the Baltics or down to Greece?

Yes I've noticed it too. I sent Tesla the following picture that shows how they could with just 5 superchargers cover the Baltics as the speed limits in the region don't allow you to average above 90km/h anyway and therefore 300km real world distances are easily doable in an 85kWh Model S no matter what the weather is like. At a later date they can then double the count and reduce the distance to 150km, but at least they'd cover a huge region at a minimal cost and at the same time complete a circuit around the Baltic sea giving Norwegians and central EU the ability to travel to the eastern part as well as for example St Petersburg. Let's hope the SC planning team takes this into account.

Even more, there are incentives in place that could get Tesla to get 70% of the cost covered in LV and LT for the SC buildout. So I see no reason beyond prioritization why this shouldn't be done

 

[Fast Laner]

I find it odd that Tesla is so densely blanketing some markets whilst entirely ignoring others. Germans like to holiday on the Spanish coast, but they'll have to leave their Teslas at home? And no trips up to the Baltics or down to Greece?

High Robert,

Germans will move a Model S to the shores of North/Baltic Sea situated in Germany.
They will move it to a capital of a neighboring country or for the ski vacations in the alps.

But they will take the plane to the mediterean shores and have a rental car if needed.
Geography and habits in the Americas and Europe are quite different.

Fast Laner

 

[maxwell]

Regarding Tesla winning German market, it might not be so difficult. I would expect the nation that has engineering in its genes to recognize and appreciate a good piece of engineering, regardless of where it comes from.

Let's assume that. In the case of winning the market i also betting on Gen. III, because i think this customer segment might be less connected to a certain brand. The wealthy people will probably buy a Model S and still keep some others. Now i know a man who bought a Model S in my region - try to figure out how to get a drive...
I worked in Switzerland for three years and had a VOLVO there. The fact that there is no Swiss car manufacturer makes them open to many brands. Good for TESLA! I saw my first Roadster there too (around 2009?). How awesome, i wish i could have seen its potential there.

Now, back in Germany, i went for a VW. Literally everybody knows how it works, you always find a friend who had exactly the same issue/problem before, and you have masses of spare parts and service points (which you won't need that much with a TESLA of course).

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I guess you read my post here: Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014 - Page 432

Ah the moat, that's it. I'll see what i can find out.

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High Robert,

Germans will move a Model S to the shores of North/Baltic Sea situated in Germany.
They will move it to a capital of a neighboring country or for the ski vacations in the alps.

But they will take the plane to the mediterean shores and have a rental car if needed.
Geography and habits in the Americas and Europe are quite different.

Fast Laner

Completely agree. Spain or Greece = flying.

 

[maoing]

EU folks,

Any updates for May delivery number especially Norway/Germany and so on?

 

[Yggdrasill]

Some figures for Norway (April in paranthesis):

Tesla Model S: 371 (171)
Nissan Leaf: 342 (451)
BMW i3: 131 (236)
Other: 502

Total number of electric cars sold: 1346

The electric cars got a 10.9% market share, while it was 10.4% in April.

(More figures will follow - they've only released some of the figures.)