Exclusive: Tesla hits Model 3 manufacturing milestone, hours after deadline - factory sources

[jgrant]

Looks like they came up a bit short, but still a significant achievement and clearly demonstrates they will get there.

Exclusive: Tesla hits Model 3 manufacturing milestone, hours after...

 

[jgrant]

Looks like they came up a bit short, but still a significant achievement and clearly demonstrates they will get there.

Exclusive: Tesla hits Model 3 manufacturing milestone, hours after...

You know it just occurred to me, if the 5,000th for the week finished final checks at 5AM this morning, or 5 hours late, then they produced 4,851 in the last week in burst conditions. L

Anyways, looking at different sources, the average using different methods by different analysts suggest they averaged 4,300 weekly Model 3s during June with the burst in the final week at 4,851. In month of April, official results showed only 2,250 a week. So in three months, they improved the weekly production rate 52%!!!

Obviously we'll have official numbers in a few days, but if they are indeed at 4,300 weekly sustained production rate, its only needs a further 14% improvement from sustained to meet the 5k number. Provided they did 52% growth last quarter, improving another 14% doesn't seem far off.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

According to a Reuters report, Tesla is now targeting a pace equivalent to 6,000 Model 3 per week within the next month.

 

[TaoJones]

Given that they just achieved 7,000 vehicles/week mid-year, a) that alone is ~350,000 vehicles/year, and b) it would appear that they are a tent or so away from the eoy 10,000/week target. Presuming the GF can keep up.

Good stuff.

 

[jgrant]

Given that they just achieved 7,000 vehicles/week mid-year, a) that alone is ~350,000 vehicles/year, and b) it would appear that they are a tent or so away from the eoy 10,000/week target. Presuming the GF can keep up.

Good stuff.

Not sure where the 7K source is coming from, but looks like the ultimate target per Junky Jr. is 6K which I thought i've seen previously as the burst rate as its now requiring suppliers to achieve 6K a month for parts. 10K doesn't seem possible in short term, but who knows. I'm betting if they do desire a sustained production rate of 10K, it would be EOY before they hit it. To your point though, thats a lot of cars. As in, if they could sustain 10k a week per year and its sticker prices, yikes. It's outselling all luxury mid-sized sedans combined.

 

[jgrant]

Not sure where the 7K source is coming from, but looks like the ultimate target per Junky Jr. is 6K which I thought i've seen previously as the burst rate as its now requiring suppliers to achieve 6K a month for parts. 10K doesn't seem possible in short term, but who knows. I'm betting if they do desire a sustained production rate of 10K, it would be EOY before they hit it. To your point though, thats a lot of cars. As in, if they could sustain 10k a week per year and its sticker prices, yikes. It's outselling all luxury mid-sized sedans combined.

Oops. Chunky Jr. Apologies.

 

[bro1999]

Sorta curious: how many people would be perfectly content knowing they would be receiving one of the Model 3s produced the last day of June? Especially Model 3 number 5,000 that rolled off the line? We know the age old saying of not wanting a car produced Friday afternoon before a long weekend starts. What about a Tesla produced at midnight just before the biggest deadline in the company's history?

 

[jgrant]

Sorta curious: how many people would be perfectly content knowing they would be receiving one of the Model 3s produced the last day of June? Especially Model 3 number 5,000 that rolled off the line? We know the age old saying of not wanting a car produced Friday afternoon before a long weekend starts. What about a Tesla produced at midnight just before the biggest deadline in the company's history?

I can say I am a little more than happy to have reserved on June 16th, 2016 than March 31st, 2016. Might be waiting a few more months, but probably worth it.

 

[jgrant]

According to a Reuters report, Tesla is now targeting a pace equivalent to 6,000 Model 3 per week within the next month.

Tesla posted official numbers this morning, link here. Prior news was wrong. Official numbers from Tesla indicate 5,031 in last 7 days of June. New target is 6K by end of August.

 

[Trevor B]

But still 10,000 short of Wall St estimates ... stock going the other way now

 

[drawfour]

Not sure where the 7K source is coming from,

Elon tweeted "7k in 7 days. (heart) Tesla (heart)." Or something like that. But that 7k includes 2k Model S/X plus the 5k Model 3s.

 

[TM3_Jack]

It's funny how everyone is so happy about a 5000 model s production week, 7000 total with x and s combined.

NEWS FLASH: Thats only one week you need to sustain that ramp rate for the next 52 Weeks this week since it's July 4 weekend production has stopped. Not sure what everyone is happy about... They cannot/will not sustain that type of ramp.

Just read this article straight from workers on the line:
A shouting Elon Musk and changing rules: Inside Tesla's Model 3 sprint

They need to hire more workers for the line or else people are going to be burnt out and they will leave.

 

[ecarfan]

Looks like they came up a bit short, but still a significant achievement and clearly demonstrates they will get there.

Exclusive: Tesla hits Model 3 manufacturing milestone, hours after...

That Reuters story is certainly not “exclusive”. That news was widely available.

 

[mos6507]

They need to hire more workers for the line or else people are going to be burnt out and they will leave.

Either that or they need to seriously revise the automation plan because humans may be underrated but they have physical limits that robots don't. They're also more expensive and they have a nasty habit of suing when they get damaged on the job.