Expiration of $7,500 federal tax credit w/Model 3

[Zaxxon]

Austin, I tend to agree with you. But until Tesla actually delivers a product on time, I and most others will lean toward assuming past performance indicates future.

 

[schonelucht]

Model 3 is just as much make or break for the company as Model S. If they don't get that one right or if it bombs in the consumer market, it will be impossible to pay off debt acquired from ongoing sales of their model S/X. Also, stock valuation would likely tank making a equity round also very difficult.

 

[Cobos]

So, what about Model III? more of the same. They will finish up the X for the most part in late 2014. Now these teams have NOTHING to do for a couple years while they wait for the gigafactory to come online. The design is no longer the constraint, the supply is. I 100% gurantee there is serious design work on model IIi right now. They will be done and polishing for a year. They will have moved on to the Gen III crossover before the Gen III sedan is officially released to production. So the way I see it, the design will be on the shelf. The car tooling will be all done. So they can relatively easily be on time by making a few thousand model III right on schedule, even if the GF is a bit delayed. the GF is the constraint.

Actually they might not even need the GF to start selling the Model III. Depending on how slim their margins are it seems plausible that they can sell the first 10k at a slight loss, to get it out on time. It's also plausible that Panasonic probably could supply enough batteries for 50k or 100k Model III the first year or 6 months.

Though all experience thus far implies Tesla not being very good with keeping timing promises

Cobos

 

[emupilot]

Actually they might not even need the GF to start selling the Model III. Depending on how slim their margins are it seems plausible that they can sell the first 10k at a slight loss, to get it out on time. It's also plausible that Panasonic probably could supply enough batteries for 50k or 100k Model III the first year or 6 months.

I was originally thinking that they could start selling the Model III in limited numbers before the GF came on line. During the earnings report conference call, however, they indicated that the optimal battery size would be about 10% taller and 10% wider than the 18650s they use. If they design the Model III to use the optimal 20715 size batteries, those could only be manufactured at the gigafactory.

 

[RobStark]

I was originally thinking that they could start selling the Model III in limited numbers before the GF came on line. During the earnings report conference call, however, they indicated that the optimal battery size would be about 10% taller and 10% wider than the 18650s they use. If they design the Model III to use the optimal 20715 size batteries, those could only be manufactured at the gigafactory.

Why can't Panasonic manufacture the 20715 in Japan?

Tesla has agreed to continue buying battery cells from Panasonic's Japanese factories even after the GF is built.

I doubt they will have two separate battery sizes.

I doubt the industrial machinery that builds 18650 can't build 20715.

Industrial machinery is not built that it can only build one product size.

 

[winfield100]

200,000, July, 2018............

 

[SW2Fiddler]

200,000, July, 2018............

Can't be true.
It would mean Elon Musk nailed a target timeline (Car #200K in US delivered at start of a quarter instead of end).
The earth would start to wobble, or ...he's not as clueless as everyone says...