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For those who don't qualify for the Fed rebate, better to lease?

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Knowing the residual, money factor, how the incentive - not tax credit - is applied is actually irrelevant. We start with the fact that leases are only good for people who meet all of the following conditions:
  • You do not keep a car for more that 3-years e.g. you are not the kind of person who likes to keep a car long term
  • You drive no more that 12,000 miles per year
  • You are willing to spend the required money to keep the car in good condition
  • You will not be modifying or adding stuff to the car
  • Normally at the end of a lease you can buy the car. This is not true on the current Tesla lease. At the end you will have to pay for anything beyond reasonable wear and tear, the tires must be a matched set with adequate tread, and you will pay a lease termination fee.
If you can get past the above items, then the only real question is the lease payment sufficiently lower than what you would pay if you bought the car. Given that Tesla does not write good leases, you may find you only save $100-150 / month. But you need to run the numbers yourself.
 
Knowing the residual, money factor, how the incentive - not tax credit - is applied is actually irrelevant. We start with the fact that leases are only good for people who meet all of the following conditions:
  • You do not keep a car for more that 3-years e.g. you are not the kind of person who likes to keep a car long term
  • You drive no more that 12,000 miles per year
  • You are willing to spend the required money to keep the car in good condition
  • You will not be modifying or adding stuff to the car
  • Normally at the end of a lease you can buy the car. This is not true on the current Tesla lease. At the end you will have to pay for anything beyond reasonable wear and tear, the tires must be a matched set with adequate tread, and you will pay a lease termination fee.
If you can get past the above items, then the only real question is the lease payment sufficiently lower than what you would pay if you bought the car. Given that Tesla does not write good leases, you may find you only save $100-150 / month. But you need to run the numbers yourself.
I agree with your summation. However, as the OP pointed out, if you bring the extra $7500 into the lease equation then the financial model could possibly turn in favor of the lease. And it will result in extra sales that they are not currently getting from those who don't qualify for the federal EV credit.
 
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I agree with your summation. However, as the OP pointed out, if you bring the extra $7500 into the lease equation then the financial model could possibly turn in favor of the lease. And it will result in extra sales that they are not currently getting from those who don't qualify for the federal EV credit.

Tesla will, or wont put "money on the hood" just like every other car dealer, based on what they want to do with supply and demand. As I said previously though, because Tesla does not have a captive finance arm (Like Toyota Motor Credit, BMW Finance, etc etc), they have never really been super competitive on leasing numbers.

Strangely enough, I would normally disagree with advice like "you dont need to know the residual / money factor" in almost any case but buying from Tesla, because in every case but Tesla, while residuals are not negotiable, things like money factor and getting incentives applied are.

Not on a Tesla though. In this case, i agree with most of what @ATPMSD in their previous post in this thread.
 
Tesla will, or wont put "money on the hood" just like every other car dealer, based on what they want to do with supply and demand. As I said previously though, because Tesla does not have a captive finance arm (Like Toyota Motor Credit, BMW Finance, etc etc), they have never really been super competitive on leasing numbers.

Strangely enough, I would normally disagree with advice like "you dont need to know the residual / money factor" in almost any case but buying from Tesla, because in every case but Tesla, while residuals are not negotiable, things like money factor and getting incentives applied are.

Not on a Tesla though. In this case, i agree with most of what @ATPMSD in their previous post in this thread.
Do we actually know the Tesla's residual value and money factor? I think the OP intention is comparing lease it now, and then purchase at the end of the lease vs purchase it outright. It is unclear how Tesla is passing down the credit, do they use it to reduce the capital cost or offset the fees, tax first ?
 
I think the OP intention is comparing lease it now, and then purchase at the end of the lease vs purchase it outright.

That hasnt been possible with model 3 or Y leases since Tesla started offering leases on them (lease and buy the car outright at the end of the lease), so there is nothing to compare on that front. Its Lease the car and turn it in, vs purchase, and you can simply compare the 3 year cost of the lease vs the payments on the car over 3 years + its left over sales value.