RedOctober
Member
So maybe the ramp is actually here with only a few days remaining for one of the most anticipated 2Q results in the automotive industry in a long time. Great information in Augkuo’s post.
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Garlan Garner
Banned
I believe they are going to blow the doors off delivering cars in a few days.
I believe they will surpass 6000 Model 3 deliveries in the first week of July.
I believe they will surpass 10000 total deliveries in the first week.
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Reddy Kilowatt
Active Member
RTPEV
Active Member
I had been thinking that too, but I don't think their delivery logistics are quite up to the task.
The reason I say that is that I'm in a position where I was one of the first people to get a VIN since they changed their VIN assignment policy, and clearly I was one of the people targeted for a July delivery. But I figured great: my car is probably stockpiled somewhere in state and I will likely be one of those first week deliveries as they merely have to transport the car the last few miles and prep it. But no, my ISA told me 7/20 (and went on to say that my car had just left the factory--which I don't necessarily believe). So I'm not sure they quite have their act together enough to suddenly ramp up to 6000 (or 10000) deliveries in a week. But the bar has been raised for sure. If their May pace was 2300 (S,X & 3) per week, I can see 3500 the first week of July (only because of the holiday), 4000 the week after, and then climbing to 5000/week. Probably won't go much beyond there until they open up international markets.
Reddy Kilowatt
Active Member
I would agree that Tesla does not have the facilities to deliver this many cars at the showrooms. I went through that myself when I got my S the car just sat there for weeks, waiting its turn to be final prepped. Tysons is going to be expanded when I spoke to one of the guys at the delivery Center there. But if the cars are already there they can be prepping them and getting ready for a big week of deliveries. So when your turn does come the car may only need a final car wash.
Maybe Elons tweet on allow customers to allow them to build there car could be realized here. Tesla will now allow you to come down and see your car and prep it for delivery and do the final inspection and input all of the delivery paperwork. Oh can you bring a #2 pencil and your car wash stuff where short on sponges and buckets.
Tesla will be off the hook if it's not documented, you inspected it!
Garlan Garner
Banned
What made me ramp my number up are the number of cars sitting in the parking lot of the Westmont Il. Tesla store - waiting for delivery. There were rows and rows of them. When I came back from my 2n'd test drive of the Model S....we couldn't find a spot to park.
I am not going to comment on why I believe those cars aren't being delivered yet, however when I go there Monday.....I believe its going to be a madhouse as Monday is the start of the 3rd quarter. I'll just leave it at that.
I believe Tesla is going to deliver 5000 cars just Monday across the US as that many are stacked up in stores everywhere. We have 52 states and that would only be less than 100 cars per state. There had to be 50 cars sitting at the Westmont Il store alone.
RTPEV
Active Member
Yeah, I don't disagree with what you said about the cars being at the delivery centers (or at least nearby), despite what my ISA told me about my car.
I just don't think that Tesla is equipped and has the manpower to actually deliver 5000 cars in a day. There is still going to have to be a ramp of sorts in the delivery logistics. For sure it's going to be a steep one, but it's not going to jump from 500 to 5000 per day in one day.
Garlan Garner
Banned
You don't think they could deliver 100 cars per state ( not per store ) in a day?
Reddy Kilowatt
Active Member
Good question but they deliver them through the delivery centers. If they continue to deliver them in there delivery booths, i dont think so. Tysons only has 3 boothes and they take a minimum of one hour per car that would only be 36 cars in a day if they deliver 12 hours in a day. I think Tysons doesn't start until 10 AM and stops by 9 Pm so that would be even less. Now if they start sticking the threes out on the lots for final delivery they could speed up, or simply work longer hours and open at 7AM they can get a bump. I have no question Tysons has cars hidden all over the place, even more so this week.
I do think Tesla is getting the logistic's part ramped up now. but there still hurting in the paper work department and final deliveries. we have had our 3 for two months and Tesla still cant get emails straight on the cars, which controls the App's on the phones. This is a Las Vegas issue.
RTPEV
Active Member
I think per store is the right metric, considering that some states might have 1 or even 0 delivery centers. Delivering 100 cars to Maine in a day would be particularly challenging for example.
Rather, I think the way to look at it is on a per delivery center basis (and even that is not perfect, because some are larger than others). So to reach 5000 per day, that's about 50 per delivery center. That's 50 cars to detail each and every day. And assuming 12 hour days, that's about one car every 15 minutes.
Is it possible? Yes. You could hire a small army of detailers and delivery specialists. You could have "group" orientations. They've already streamlined the paperwork process, so that may already be optimized. Based on the physical size of the delivery center you could do multiple cars in parallel (although remember for each of those mega-delivery centers that can do 20 in parallel, you have many tiny delivery centers that can't probably do more than 1 or 2).
But my point is that the likelihood of them being able to effectively go from 5 cars in a day to 50 overnight doesn't seem likely. I think we can learn a lot about the attempt at a quick ramp up in Toronto. An army of fresh, new workers was brought in, many of whom didn't receive ANY training. They weren't delivering these cars in 15 minutes, but rather it took even longer than normal (3-4 hours in some cases) due to all the chaos.
They will get to that point, and they'll do it pretty quickly. But it isn't going to be on July 2. It will take them a few weeks to really get in the groove. And then yes, they will HAVE to because the factory is going to be pumping out vehicles at that rate.
Garlan Garner
Banned
I was asked to choose a delivery spot when I configured.
My only options were 3 stores in my area here in Chicago. We obviously don't have a delivery center here.
RTPEV
Active Member
I'm using the word "delivery center" loosely. I mean just wherever they deliver cars, not necessarily a dedicated delivery location (although certainly that is how many cars are delivered). Here in Raleigh for example, cars are delivered from the service center (I think anyway--I guess I will find out in a few weeks) which is a tiny little affair that would be extremely challenging to deliver multiple cars in parallel out of.
California hasn't split up yet. Last I heard, there are still only 50 states.
Garlan Garner
Banned
dc_h
Active Member
If I were the regional sales mgr for tsla here in Chicago I would set up a tent at oak brook mall. Use an out lot or the upper deck of one of the garages. You could do groups of 10 or 20 and have plenty of room at one location central to most of Chicago area.
Anyone know the regional mgr, pass it on. There is a sales site at the mall, so they have existing relationships.
blackeducator
Member
I talked with my Dania beach, FL Tesla rep a couple of days ago and he said they are gearing up for a 285-300 M3 week's delivery soon after July 4. This service center deals with the very populous Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties in South Florida.
I haven’t heard from you since you advised me on a detailer for my P85D. BTW, the Coral Gables SC is also expecting to deliver a flood of Model 3s next week as well as the lot full of S and X.
We can safely assume July will be a month long madhouse almost everywhere in the US. Other countries, depends...My Brazil M3 recently changed from mid2019 to early2019.
Garlan Garner
Banned
That's extremely unfortunate.Unfortunately none get delivered to Michigan and a select few other states with dealerships blocking the way
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