I have not read the transcript, but press reports said Elon promised an FSD subscription option by YE20.
Priced right, I would definitely be interested.
Priced right, I would definitely be interested.
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FSD Subscription
- Thread starter Ccmun
- Start date
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Yup.
Though I can't imagine how it's not (in addition to the repeated in-writing downgrading of FSD promises) yet another admission FSD as originally envisioned isn't coming anytime soon.
If they were anywhere NEAR Robotaxi-ready this year (or next, which is when that promise has now been pushed off to) then a monthly FSD offering wouldn't make sense.
(caveat: that's assuming he means a literal monthly subscription where you can turn it on or off each month.... if they're really meaning they're going to offer FSD on a payment plan with you really fully buy it but pay it off over 60 months that's different- but it didn't sound like it)
Though I can't imagine how it's not (in addition to the repeated in-writing downgrading of FSD promises) yet another admission FSD as originally envisioned isn't coming anytime soon.
If they were anywhere NEAR Robotaxi-ready this year (or next, which is when that promise has now been pushed off to) then a monthly FSD offering wouldn't make sense.
(caveat: that's assuming he means a literal monthly subscription where you can turn it on or off each month.... if they're really meaning they're going to offer FSD on a payment plan with you really fully buy it but pay it off over 60 months that's different- but it didn't sound like it)
Garlan Garner
Banned
What does priced right mean?
$7000 divided by 72 months ( 5 year regular car payment ) is $97 per month.
Is that "priced right"?
Tesla confirms self-driving as a subscription service but brace yourself for the price - Electrek
After 5 years....will you own it? Will you have to continue to leas it? Will you only use it for long vacation trips? What will be your use of it if its a subscription?
Good points @Knightshade, @garlan.
I think $100/M sounds about right. Assuming I could opt in/out depending on my usage and satisfaction. Although, I am skeptical they would make it that easy. I am sure the lure of $7K upfront is more alluring.
I agree that we probably won't see it this year.
I think $100/M sounds about right. Assuming I could opt in/out depending on my usage and satisfaction. Although, I am skeptical they would make it that easy. I am sure the lure of $7K upfront is more alluring.
I agree that we probably won't see it this year.
Sandiegodoug
Active Member
I think for people leasing car, a subscription makes sense. If your plans are to keep car till it dies, purchase makes sense.
I think they mentioned that it will be cheaper in long term to buy it up front. So I'm guessing it'd be about 100 bucks a month.
I'm just wondering if they will be offering HW upgrade to subscription customers.
I'm just wondering if they will be offering HW upgrade to subscription customers.
I would expect if you are on a subscription plan that you would not eventually own it. It might be flexible enough to stop or start on a monthly basis or maybe at least a yearly subscription. Like most subscriptions it could be something like $100/month or $1000 per year.
They would have to to make it work. I think maybe initially only offer for HW3 customers. Eventually allow a HW3 upgrade for $2 or $3k and then subscription plan for $100 per month.
For leasing you are already not paying the full $7k. Originally I would have said FSD is pointless for a lease because the features won't be there in 3 years, but now that they rolled in all the EAP stuff into FSD, I am not so sure. You are stuck with basic AP.
TX_M3P+
Member
HW 2.5 does not support all the functions of FSD, so would I get a free HW upgrade if I subscribed or would I have to pay some money for the HW upgrade just to then be able to subscribe?
If you pay for FSD, you will get your free HW 3.0 upgrade.
Edit: Read your question wrong, that's actually quite a good question that I don't have an answer to.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Nobody knows.
Nobody even knows if this is going to be "rent to own" or "finance FSD post purchase" or just "netflix for FSD where you decide month to month if you want it"
I think we can be pretty sure it's NOT going to be "You pay $100 for 1 month of service and get HW3 for free" because the math on that is insane for Tesla.
Some possible ways they're doing this, and what I think it'd mean for both HW upgrades and the future of FSD:
1) It's a monthly rental- and only available to HW3 owners. This is worst case for the future of FSD- because this model makes no financial sense unless they're admitting they're never going to deliver the higher levels of FSD they once promised and which would be no-brainer purchases at full price. Instead they're admitting it's never gonna be more than an L2 driver aid, and so if they can capture some revenue from people once or twice a year in the month they're taking a road trip, that's better than nothing.
2) It's a subscription- but you can't cancel it as long as you own the car (or it's for a long, fixed, amount of years such that you'd pay more total than if you'd just bought FSD). Some of their statements imply this... and it'd probably get you a HW3 upgrade if you need it. Doesn't make a ton of sense for the BUYER financially- but it's probably the "best" thing they could announce for the future of FSD since it'd be useful for the robotaxi folks to break up their costs and would be probably the one case it makes any sense at all for the buyer.... if they're "earning" $500 a month with a $100/month long term subscription.
3) Same as 2, but you "own" it after you've paid a certain amount. Really no difference from 3 except it's a little better for the buyer and a little worse for Tesla. This seems furthest from the wording they've used though but I suppose it's possible.
2 and 3 would be available to HW2.5 owners as the upgrade to 3 would be "priced in" like it is today. 1 wouldn't.
TX_M3P+
Member
But the whole point of a subscription is to not pay for the entire thing, rather only pay for it when you need it. If I don't have HW 3.0 then what would be my options for getting a subscription? If I pay the full $4k now to upgrade from EAP to FSD then I wouldn't need the subscription.
TX_M3P+
Member
I guess we just have to wait and see if Tesla releases more info on how this would all play out. I would never opt into a subscription for $100/mo that never ended as long as I owned the car, I'd rather just pay the $4k and do the full upgrade and be done with it. But this old HW problem also affects all models in the fleet, so hopefully there is a HW upgrade path in order to obtain the subscription.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
I suppose this does raise another option though.
There's 2.5 folks who don't have EAP (and it's no longer for sale)
You could offer a subscription that basically just turns EAP on for those folks. No HW upgrade, and none of the "new FSD only" features.
But still a ton more functionality than they'd get with basic AP.
TX_M3P+
Member
Yeah, a co-worker of mine bought the base $35k model and has been holding out for a monthly EAP subscription ever since. This would service his needs for sure and would provide Tesla with extra money they otherwise would get from him or others like him.
Like @Knightshade said, you dont expect to subscribe for $100 or 150 for a month, schedule your HW3 upgrade, then cancel.... do you? Anyone can see that massive loophole, so I am positive that tesla has seen it as well.
Thats just what I was thinking... they already have the software done for EAP (which isnt offered anymore as you say). This would also let them differentiate the subscription from full FSD, because IF they manage to push FSD forward further, there would be more incentive to purchase it.
The big question is, is this netflix (where you are never going to own it, so you will pay forever if you want to use it) or is it some some sort of "payment plan". If you can turn it off, then its just a subscription, and it makes no sense to allow someone to subscribe for a month then get a HW 3 upgrade and then cancel.
Not sure how we got this far without a basic math correction...
$7k over 5 years (60 months, not 72) is $117/month...
I think assuming that they’ll just divide the $7k over 5 years is wrong. Elon said it would cost more to subscribe than to buy. Obviously people who subscribe would not purchase every month. But if they did, the cost would have to be above $117.
So $150-$200 month would be more likely and even THAT would be too low. To incentivize people to buy upfront I think it would have to be $600+ per month. Here’s my math:
Assume most would subscribe during the summer when most road trips occur, so 3 months out of the year.
$7k/5years=$1,400/yr
1,400/3months=$467/month
Round up to $499/month subscription
This would cost the subscriber about $7,500 over the same time period. That’s still too low, but I’ll stop there. Note that this doesn’t take into account that it was also said that the price of FSD will be increasing this year.
TLDR anything less than $200/month makes no financial sense for Tesla.
$7k over 5 years (60 months, not 72) is $117/month...
I think assuming that they’ll just divide the $7k over 5 years is wrong. Elon said it would cost more to subscribe than to buy. Obviously people who subscribe would not purchase every month. But if they did, the cost would have to be above $117.
So $150-$200 month would be more likely and even THAT would be too low. To incentivize people to buy upfront I think it would have to be $600+ per month. Here’s my math:
Assume most would subscribe during the summer when most road trips occur, so 3 months out of the year.
$7k/5years=$1,400/yr
1,400/3months=$467/month
Round up to $499/month subscription
This would cost the subscriber about $7,500 over the same time period. That’s still too low, but I’ll stop there. Note that this doesn’t take into account that it was also said that the price of FSD will be increasing this year.
TLDR anything less than $200/month makes no financial sense for Tesla.
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TX_M3P+
Member
Of course not. My thinking is that the $4k upgrade for me (coming form EAP) is half for the HW and half for the SW. So maybe I'd only have to pay the $2k for the HW, then I could subscribe on a monthly basis for the SW.
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