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FSD upgrade. On the fence.
- Thread starter xpitxbullx
- Start date
Assuming that's true, why would they not say: "After xyz date, the cost to pre-order will go up to $xxxx"?
The only logical reason in that scenario is because they don't know how much more the retrofits would cost and therefore cannot work out a viable pre-order selling price. And that can only be true if their dev is so far away from level 4/level5 that they don't know what additional hardware and software will be required. The picture that paints is that FSD is quite far away.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
I think it's more of a case that they currently feel the HW3 computer is enough of an upgrade, but can't be sure of that until they've got a lot of real-world data from deployed vehicles using it.
Which they won't have for at least 6-12 months.
If it turns out that's enough- great. Even better all new cars will already come with it in 6 months or less so no swap costs either except for the few who prepaid before the option was pulled...and post-pay cost can go up for the AP2.x cars to cover it.
If it's not then they'll be on the hook for additional HW upgrades, for free, to everyone they presold it to.
So maybe stop preselling until they're SURE. Which is what they did.
This is because FSD was advertised as $4000 when OP bought the car (just like mine was); however, Tesla's web ordering system doesn't support multiple FSD prices, so everyone pays current price and those with different advertised prices at the time of purchase get a refund of the difference.
JeffK
Well-Known Member
You know and here I thought Tesla employed software developers...
While that's plausible, Tesla has no history of waiting until they're sure. The opposite is true. So either this is a sign of the company taking a vastly different approach to product maturity, or the alternatives (among which I described) are more likely.
Yes, it doesn't add up. A simple set of criteria applied to a purchase or account is a trivial matter in any ERP system, particularly one managed by a "tech company" like Tesla.
But do you realize that Tesla is shipping something like 6-7k cars a week now. They soon going to start shipping Model 3s to Europe etc. Do you really believe that a hardware upgrade is going to be a priority? I think it’s going be years away
Is there any written contract that states that FSD buyers are entitled to a free hardware upgrade? Or are we just talking about some Elon tweet or some electrek article?
Far more likely IMO it could also mean thing #3:
“We have this FSD option that we have been selling for 2 years and this thing is nowhere close to being ready! This is a huge potential legal liability. Let’s remove this ASAP”
JeffK
Well-Known Member
It's been a priority for a few years now and every S/3/X that goes out the door right now are going to have the old hardware still. Every one of those is a potential customer that will be up in arms if they can't upgrade to FSD later. The more they ship, the more they have to retrofit.
As far as nowhere close to being ready, I beg to differ. All you have to do it look at the demos from the competition. FSD for 90% of the use cases (lvl 4) is right around the corner. If it's not Tesla first, then it will certainly be someone.
Lvl 5 might be further off due to edge cases etc, but lvl 4 is closer than anyone thinks.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
It's going to be coming standard in every single car they build in about 6 months.
That's the whole point- every car they presell FSD in now, they know they incur an additional cost liability to retrofit, for free, that car.
So better to take that off the menu until they're only selling cars with the HW already there from the factory.
Tesla, the company, has confirmed the free upgrades for FSD purchasers numerous times, dating back to at least the 2.0->2.5 change in August 2017.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
I mean, not very good ones.... at least as far as their ERP/CRM/website stuff goes.
Or much of their UI/infotainment stuff in the cars either.
EAP works well though!
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
Removing the FSD option from currently configured cars makes PERFECT sense for Tesla.
The second that they realized that AP2.5 hardware was insufficient and that AP3 hardware was required they should pull FSD from the options list.
Why?
Simple. Because they now know every newly configured car with FSD will absolutely require 2 sets of hardware and that is wasted money and profits. Allowing anyone to configure FSD today for $3K is just plain stupid. This sucks for anyone who wants to configure FSD today because it will certainly be the more expensive, post configuration "after the fact" $5K price. Obviously this is by design because it will help Tesla pay for the hardware upgrade and justifies exactly why they did this. Once AP3 hardware is standard in every car, Tesla could start offering it again for $3K again ... But, will they? I don't know but I doubt it. For one, that will piss off the folks who weren't offered FSD but wanted it. Plus now that Tesla will soon be offering the first FSD feature, it's actually worth more than vaporware they've been selling.
My bet is after AP3 hardware becomes standard, FSD at the time of configuration will start again but will go to $5K. Adding it afterwards will cost $7K. If you bought the car during the time it wasn't offered, they will offer it at the new "at configuration" price of $5K as a gesture. My 2¢
The second that they realized that AP2.5 hardware was insufficient and that AP3 hardware was required they should pull FSD from the options list.
Why?
Simple. Because they now know every newly configured car with FSD will absolutely require 2 sets of hardware and that is wasted money and profits. Allowing anyone to configure FSD today for $3K is just plain stupid. This sucks for anyone who wants to configure FSD today because it will certainly be the more expensive, post configuration "after the fact" $5K price. Obviously this is by design because it will help Tesla pay for the hardware upgrade and justifies exactly why they did this. Once AP3 hardware is standard in every car, Tesla could start offering it again for $3K again ... But, will they? I don't know but I doubt it. For one, that will piss off the folks who weren't offered FSD but wanted it. Plus now that Tesla will soon be offering the first FSD feature, it's actually worth more than vaporware they've been selling.
My bet is after AP3 hardware becomes standard, FSD at the time of configuration will start again but will go to $5K. Adding it afterwards will cost $7K. If you bought the car during the time it wasn't offered, they will offer it at the new "at configuration" price of $5K as a gesture. My 2¢
The issue isn't Tesla's hardware, it's their software, and in this case, "soft" means something between vapor and pure hot air.
If they actually had anything like what they've promised, they could build a test bed vehicle with as much hardware as needed and demonstrate it working. But they don't and can't.
Boiling the hardware down is pretty easy these days if you've got a software system that works. Without the software though, no amount of hardware can make a system work.
If they actually had anything like what they've promised, they could build a test bed vehicle with as much hardware as needed and demonstrate it working. But they don't and can't.
Boiling the hardware down is pretty easy these days if you've got a software system that works. Without the software though, no amount of hardware can make a system work.
JeffK
Well-Known Member
No, the problem with that is people believe it's the production version and that everything is ready. This already happened Oct 2016
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
It’s all about bandwidth and priorities. For example, I’m sure some clever programmer at Tesla could spend about five minutes to make my entertainment system remember what audio source was selected when I exit and return to the car instead of switching to the radio 90% of the time.
I pulled the trigger. Upgrade purchased. Understandable that they charged tax, too, but that still sucks. Waiting for my refund.
That is very spot on. I remember that was one of the point Steve Jobs was making during a debate in 2007. He was asked to name one good thing of Bill Gates and he mentioned that Gates was one of the very few who understood very early on that it was all about the software. Everybody else focused on the hardware.
Look at the early implementations of Android. We had the exact same problem. It took years and much faster hardware to get scrolling on par with the first iPhone. I remember all the anti apple folks were focusing on how much better the hardware was (4 cores etc). The fact that Android was running Java VM code as opposed to native was barely ever mentioned.
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