FSD With Purchase Or Wait

[Knightshade]

Totally glad I skipped for now. I watched a video I1 tesla put out showing Ver 3 hardware can't even stay on its side of the road and is marginally superior to ver 2.5.

So he does his AP testing on a road explicitly not intended for AP use and you're using that to judge how well a different feature set (FSD) that hasn't even been published to the fleet and nobody has tested outside of Tesla employees yet will do?

It has a lot of learning to do (years) before Ver 3 can actually be useful. Tesla's choice of not using LIDAR for the next few years as a safety net is ultimately going to be a huge mistake investors will regret not fighting.

Lawyers call this assuming facts not in evidence

Go watch the demos video from autonomy day- you'll see the car doing tons of more advanced stuff the public builds, even on HW3, don't do at all.... and all without lidar.

I also didn't buy into FSD or AP to instead opt into buying the performance package; Since I can't easily change upgrade powertrain hardware.

FYI- The AWD and the P have exactly the same powertrain hardware- the only difference is software.

Well worth the performance upgrade, especially since I track and SCCA the car regularly and enjoy the Brembo two piece disk brakes and 810 A silicon carbide inverter over 500 A standard inverter for rear PMSRM (Permanent Magnet Switched Reluctance Motor)

Again, every single US Model 3 ever made got the exact same rear drive unit and inverter you did.


There's a whole thread on here where folks of various models took and posted pics of the PNs on their drive units. All identical.


Only difference is software.

 

[W2JO]

Why do you need an EV? Climate and pollution aside, and not everyone cares about that. Plenty of people have other problems to worry about, like charging issues in apartments.

Sir Gua> I agree with your analysis. I bought a 2016 AP1 model s in July 2016. The salesman told me it could "eventually" be upgraded to FSD and I did not buy the option. Then a week after I took delivery in October 2016, we were told that No.. No FSD on AP1 ever. Now.. That said, I am quite happy with my Model S AP1. I drove 2017 and 2018 MS loaners and it was the end of 2018 before (IMHO) the AP2 acheived equality with the old AP1 as far as REAL lane management was concerned.

Twice now, I have been back this year to propose that I will buy a NEW Model S (if and only if) Tesla will guaranteed in writing that FSD up to at least Level 3, and not government certified for FSD or such WITHIN TWO YEARS, and in that case I would order a new car NOW.. No go. With confidence like that, FSD at present seems to be a Musk Dream but not near reality.

 

[M3&Me]

So I'm planning on getting a model 3 next month and deliberating if i should buy FSD with purchase or not. If you believe Elon's timeline about how good it will get, then I think its an easy buy right now (before the price goes up). I would say currently Nav on Auto pilot is only worth about 2-3k more to me at the moment than AP, but I'm afraid if i wait to buy post purchase, the price may rise a lot more.

Curious on others thoughts on this and if current owners have seen enough progression in the software to think Elon's given timeline may be accurate.

Hi. I got my M3 at the end of March and have hit 5k miles already due to a long highway commute. Given the crazy Boston drivers during rush hours, I feel much more secure with FSD. I also don’t have auto lane change on. I have found too many times when I think autopilot doesn’t account for crazy driving, or makes lane changes that end up not making sense, mostly in fast driving.
I do use NOA once I get on 93 and appreciate it.

So, if you are only concerned about the timeline, then don’t bother. If you think it can be helpful in its current form, I’d encourage it.

 

[cucubits]

Sir Gua>
.... I will buy a NEW Model S (if and only if) Tesla will guaranteed in writing that FSD up to at least Level 3, and not government certified for FSD or such WITHIN TWO YEARS.....

There's a hard zero chance they will provide anything even close to this.

 

[fvanson]

I have Autopilot, but I find it too limited for usefull use in Europe. Reason is that in Europe, the rule is to drive as much as possible on the most right lane and most highways have only 2 lanes in one direction, so the frequency of lane changes are way higher than in North America where "keep your lane" is the right and accepted driving strategy. This limits the usefullness of Autopilot to those times were there is nearly no traffic on the road. When it is busy you everytime have to enjoy the warning sound that Autosteer is active, and again when you deactivate it for changing lanes ... and these sounds are delivering the happiness your get from listening to music

So Autopilot alone might make sense in North America, but makes not that much sense in Europe.

Full Self Driving I do not have (yet) ... I am awaiting for over 90 days for a promised special offer. From what I have experienced so far with Autopilot, including about 2-4 ghost brakings per 100 km, it is not something I am willingly to pay Euro 6400 for (that is the price currently in the Netherlands). On top, there is progress but way slower than "promised" or "stated". At half of current price I would consider it with the outlook of computer upgrade from my current HW2.5 to HW3.0. When it would achieve even half of what is said, then I find Euro 3200 a reasonable price ... Euro 6400 is overpriced. Bear in mind this is my family car so privately owned ... when we own the car 8 years Euro 6400 translates to Euro 800 per year, or Euro 15 per week ... and that for a system which I would maximum use 2x per week ... for something i can do perfectly by myself ... find that somewhat too high.

 

[Thp3]

FSD is like green bananas. You pay now, they clutter your kitchen and you have to wait before you can eat them.

Of course, the rest of the joke is ”Don’t buy green bananas” implying you will die soon

 

[Knightshade]

Twice now, I have been back this year to propose that I will buy a NEW Model S (if and only if) Tesla will guaranteed in writing that FSD up to at least Level 3, and not government certified for FSD or such WITHIN TWO YEARS, and in that case I would order a new car NOW.. No go. With confidence like that, FSD at present seems to be a Musk Dream but not near reality.

L3 or higher will require changes to state/federal laws and regulations (in many states- there's a handful it'd be ok in today already)

Tesla has 0 control over that, so they have 0 ability to "guarantee" any timeline for that happening to you (or anyone else, and says literally nothing regardless of how good their tech is or how much confidence they have in it.


That's why even when they roll out the promised new FSD features later this year (stoplight/stop sign recognition, nav on AP on local roads, etc) it'll officially be a L2 system- even if it were capable of higher operation.

 

[daniel]

Clearly, opinions differ. I have EAP and I love it. Love it, Love it, Love it, Love it, Love it, Love it, Love it! I did not pay for FSD because I don't expect to see true FSD (take a nap in the back seat while the car takes me where I want to go) during the time I would likely own the car. Then it transpired that Tesla plans to roll out features for the "FSD package" that AP and EAP will not get. AFAIK these features are not yet available to ordinary owners who have paid for the FSD package.

I will assess such features once they do come out, and pay for the package if there are features I want. There are people here who do not share my opinion, but I think that the features that would get me to buy are not going to be available within the next 5 years. So if I were buying a new Tesla today, I would not pay for FSD.

What would get me to pay an additional $5k (the post-purchase price for FSD, I think?) would be Level 3 turn-by-turn autopilot navigation in the city. Eyes off the road and hands off the wheel and the car drives me where I want to go within the city.

I love my car and EAP. It was worth every penny I paid for it. I don't expect the next really big step within the next five years, and I don't think I'd pay $5K for anything that was still Level 2. I'm not sure that NoA in the city would be worth $5K to me if it was still Level 2.

 

[MountainJedi]

I would say, wait, buy a M3 and then see how you like AP. When I bought 5 weeks ago, I was told FSD was $6K at purchase, $8K after and that the price would only go up. Well, 1 day after delivery, I could purchase for $7K. Three days after delivery, I could purchase for $6K. I think you have time to test with the basic AP now and see if you think NoA would be useful for you.

Personally, I'm glad I didn't pay for FSD because I would not have found much utility in it. I personally don't think Autosteer or TACC perform well on mountainous interstate roads where I live. I find that TACC misinterprets opposite direction traffic in corners as a collision risk and brakes too aggressively and that Autosteer waits until too far into the apex of turns to actually steer. Now, these are features that can be improved through software upgrades and I'm glad my car has them so I can see if it gets better over time.

Unlike others in this thread, I also believe that there is a cap to the amount that Tesla can charge for FSD and I think it's no more than $10K. Their goal is to get autonomous vehicles on the road in massive numbers. You just can't price the autonomous features higher than $10K or you will price out a significant portion of the population. In fact, I think over time that FSD will continue to decrease in price or more features will be baked in to the base cost of the cars with additional convenience (i.e. non-safety, since that's what most believe autonomous or self-drive features will be) features like autopark and summon will be a part of upgrade packages.

 

[Bleu]

Why do you need an EV? Climate and pollution aside, and not everyone cares about that. Plenty of people have other problems to worry about, like charging issues in apartments.

I have other problems to worry about, but I still have enough bandwidth left over to worry about climate and pollution. The fact that Teslas are EVs is the number one selling point to me and I suspect there are plenty of other people whose disposition is similar. Climate and pollution are also the number one concern of Tesla, if you believe their mission statement.

 

[duanra]

I think the main concern of a company Tesla included, is to make cash.
However I am happy that they do help with environmental issues buy selling nice ev's.
Now, is automation helping environment?
I really doubt it.

 

[wrishel]

I agree with all three observations, particularly that AP is "not soup yet." In particular the system perceives false threats such as confusing a car in another lane on a curve with a car ahead on thse same lane and over-reacts. Likewise the speed control responds to changes in the speed of the car ahead with acceleration or deceleration that are too jerky.

There is no reason to believe Tesla will fail to make this all work, but there is every reason to believe it will take longer than Musk's pronouncements.

I would just have pressed LIke but for some reason I can't find the button.

 

[RobDickinson]

What cars have now is not the FSD stack, even if they have the hardware.

I think teslas approach with cameras/radar and fleet data is a good one, and substantially different to waymo/uber to give them an edge if it works.

But even if things go to plan they will only be feature complete by the end of the year - this means buggy pre-alpha level software, will need tweaking and turning into a production ready version before getting regulatory approval. That will take a chunk of 2020 at best.

Its a $9600 option at purchase here (NZ) I think I will skip for now but if it works I can always add later.

 

[Daremosan]

What the car already does is worth the purchase, no question. It is amazing.

 

[RobDickinson]

What the car already does is worth the purchase, no question. It is amazing.

For me (South Island NZ) FSD would literally add zero value right now. No NoA, no advanced summon etc.

 

[rrsurfer1]

Had my Model 3 a year. Bought EAP, added FSD after purchase but since I have EAP won't see a benefit until initial FSD features. I have used Navigate on Autopilot extensively. It is already worth the money IMO if you do any long distance highway driving. I've used it a lot more than the average Tesla driver because I do a lot of highway driving for business (300 miles one way, multiple highways). In most cases it changes lanes perfectly and has saved me from missed exits often. Sometimes it tries to make a non ideal lane change such as getting behind a truck but it is easy to cancel when you don't like it's decisions. It isn't perfect but I will say nearly every software update has improved my frequent long distance trips. At this point if I lost NOAP I would miss it immensely. And at the rate of improvement I expect it to only be more indispensable as time goes by.

 

[Tam]

Don’t let Tesla FUD or FOMA cloud your decision

Wait until the product is actually delivered and functioning well.

In current state “FSD” is unreliable at best and dangerous at worst.

It might be fixed with HW3 and software updates, but no one knows.

If you really feel the need to buy now, then first use the trial that’s sometimes offered.

I am not waiting!

I just drove my Model 3, version 9 2019.20.2.1, through 5 freeways for over 200 miles and 3.5 hours with Navigation on Autopilot without any disengagement.

Set it on when entering the on-ramp then keep a light counter torque on the steering wheel and it goes through all the freeway interchanges until the off-ramp at the destination.

It's not perfect but it's doable.

 

[JBHinPA]

I haven’t seen enough progress to believe Tesla’s claim that the car will drive itself on city streets by the end of the year.

Musk/Tesla has a poor history reg FSD timeline.

1. Musk said that by the year 2017 the car was going to self drive coast to coast. It is now 2019.

2. Tesla has been claiming in its order page since March that Adv. Summon is available. Musk said 3 months ago that it would be available in a week. Three months later, he says it is coming but the problem is harder than they originally thought.

3. Tesla claims that the car is currently capable of driving itself from on-ramp to offramp. This is due to Navigate on Autopilot. Most of us who have used NoA would agree that the feature is not very good yet.

I bought AP+FSD when they had a sale. But FSD has a long way to go and I don’t trust Tesla’s timeline. But I really want Tesla to prove me wrong.

I also did not purchase the AP or FSD. I did the 30 day free trial of Auto Pilot. I didn't like it. I think they have some bugs to work out before I would trust it.

 

[cucubits]

I think I may go back on my advice of skipping FSD.

I just found out (do correct me if I'm wrong) that the basic AP sold now, without FSD, won't help even with lane changes on the highway. I was expecting it to be able to lane change - initiated by the driver signaling. If I understood correctly, this does not work with the basic AP, the driver would need to disengage autosteer, signal, move over, re-enable AP (with all the audio chimes).

If this is the case, then yes, FSD package is starting to look better, "only" for $6k now.

 

[Knightshade]

I think I may go back on my advice of skipping FSD.

I just found out (do correct me if I'm wrong) that the basic AP sold now, without FSD, won't help even with lane changes on the highway. I was expecting it to be able to lane change - initiated by the driver signaling. If I understood correctly, this does not work with the basic AP, the driver would need to disengage autosteer, signal, move over, re-enable AP (with all the audio chimes).

If this is the case, then yes, FSD package is starting to look better, "only" for $6k now.

Yeah- the new basic AP is nothing but autosteer within your single lane, and TACC.