FSD With Purchase Or Wait

[OCR1]

The main reason I did not buy it on our second Model 3 is that I just don’t drive on freeways very much and it is not ready to be used in cities or residential neighborhoods.

If you find yourself driving on freeways for the majority of your ride FSD may be useful to you. For me it would have been an expensive option that rarely gets used.

 

[hlin07]

I would wait. three reasons.

1. FSD = For Sure Delayed, you're essentially paying upfront for something that may never come true.
2. FSD price fluctuation - No one can predict the future, but I'm willing to bet price will drop again in the future due to (end of quarter/year sale, robo taxi promotion,etc)
3. FSD/Car price ratio due to depreciation - it'll be hard to convince someone to pay 6k when their car is worth under 30% less. In two years, our cars would likely lose 30% of its value. Say we have 50k miles already on the car and the car lasts to 200k miles, we pay 6k to enjoy car for 150k miles. This compares to someone that buys the car when FSD is ready to go and enjoy all 200k miles with FSD. Of course, the timeline will likely be off, but you get the point on depreciation and reduced lifetime usage when FSD is not available now.

 

[duanra]

FSD is like green bananas. You pay now, they clutter your kitchen and you have to wait before you can eat them.

 

[VT_EE]

FSD is like green bananas. You pay now, they clutter your kitchen and you have to wait before you can eat them.

I love it!

 

[gilfish]

I don't get why everyone is dissing NOA. My experience is that it has worked great. Granted, I haven't used it too often, but on a couple of long trips it worked pretty much flawlessly (did have to take control once or twice). Maybe it also has to do with which freeways, and amount of traffic etc., but as for now, Im a fan.

 

[gummby8]

When I have the ability to put my infant child in the backseat and tell the car to take the kid to Grandmas house, without a driver, then I will buy AP and FSD.

I had a 60 day FSD trial. FSD was jaring and scary for me. Several times the car would make to change lanes then VIOLENTLY swerve back because it thought it saw something.

AP and lane assist was great. Nothing bad to say about it.

 

[diplomat33]

I don't get why everyone is dissing NOA. My experience is that it has worked great. Granted, I haven't used it too often, but on a couple of long trips it worked pretty much flawlessly (did have to take control once or twice). Maybe it also has to do with which freeways, and amount of traffic etc., but as for now, Im a fan.

I am big fan of NOA too. I love it and it has worked really well for me. I think a main reason why some people don't like it is either because it does not drive like they do or because they use in complicated congested traffic situations where NOA struggles to "cut in" correctly.

 

[blevblev]

So I'm planning on getting a model 3 next month and deliberating if i should buy FSD with purchase or not. If you believe Elon's timeline about how good it will get, then I think its an easy buy right now (before the price goes up). I would say currently Nav on Auto pilot is only worth about 2-3k more to me at the moment than AP, but I'm afraid if i wait to buy post purchase, the price may rise a lot more.

Curious on others thoughts on this and if current owners have seen enough progression in the software to think Elon's given timeline may be accurate.

I would say that you should try it out on a test drive All the new cars (since April?) come with 'hardware 3' the new Tesla designed FSD computer. Anyone answering this question who doesn't have hardware 3 isn't going to be able to give you an answer. I just missed it and am waiting for my upgrade. The reviews that I have seen that are using hardware 3 seem to indicate that it's much improved given the same version of the software.

 

[bob_p]

You can't base an FSD purchase decision based on the current state of the software, because the software is in active development.

When Tesla introduced AP2 in late 2016, it took them over a year to get the software to a level where it provided value beyond TACC. And now, it works pretty well at lane keeping and lane changing (though it is a little too aggressive in wanting to move out of the "passing" lane).

NOAP is relatively new, and overall works pretty well in most circumstances. The decision on when to lane change needs improvement - but that's something that Tesla will continue to fix through OTA, based on experience across the entire fleet of AP2/3 vehicles (something the other manufacturers don't have).

Using NOAP on roads other than limited access highways will likely require purchasing FSD. Even without regulatory approval to operate without a driver, FSD should begin providing value on non-limited access highways in the next 12 months - allowing the vehicle to operate under AP on more roads, even in driver assistance mode. And that will begin to provide value in owning FSD.

Of course there's uncertainty - and purchasing FSD now is a bet on Tesla eventually getting the software to provide value to justify the purchase cost. Will FSD provide something of value long enough to provide sufficient value over the remaining time you'll have the vehicle (even in driver assistance mode)?

If you're only planning to keep the Model 3 for 3 years, then it probably doesn't make sense to purchase FSD - but if you're planning to keep the vehicle for 6-8 years, then it may make more sense - especially since Tesla will likely charge more in the future to activate FSD after purchase.

When we purchased our 2017 S and 2018 X, we decided the risk was low enough to justify purchasing FSD for both vehicles, and based on the progress Tesla has made since those vehicles were purchased, and our plans to keep both vehicles for 8 years or 100K miles, we're comfortable with our decision. Though proportionately, FSD costs much less for an S/X than it would for a Model 3 - which might have had a different decision if we'd purchased a Model 3 last year instead of an X...

 

[dbc00p]

So I'm planning on getting a model 3 next month and deliberating if i should buy FSD with purchase or not. If you believe Elon's timeline about how good it will get, then I think its an easy buy right now (before the price goes up). I would say currently Nav on Auto pilot is only worth about 2-3k more to me at the moment than AP, but I'm afraid if i wait to buy post purchase, the price may rise a lot more.

Curious on others thoughts on this and if current owners have seen enough progression in the software to think Elon's given timeline may be accurate.

There's two schools, the "wait for the feature to be finished", and the "let me help you test it" camps. I fall into the buy now, and let me help you test it, mainly because FSD is going to save a lot of lives. I firmly believe that even Auto pilot is saving lives right now. Combine that with Tesla being one of the few green auto manufacturer's in existence, and helping them survive and thrive is a good thing. This is also the reason that I intend to join the robo taxi network as soon as can because every mile driven by an EV vs driven by an ICE car is helping to save the human species from man-made climate change. So if I need to buy special insurance (hopefully Telsa), and put my car at risk little, so be it. Essentially are you a forward thinker, and have the means to help out one of the few good companies, or would you rather stay skeptical and play it safe. Neither is wrong, just a choice.

 

[rmfpdx]

I was totally against getting FSD when I bought 2 months ago, but I'm really missing the auto lane change after 1,500 miles of AP. I'm really thinking of getting FSD just to get that. The smart summon and whatever comes next would be great too. I'm hoping for a FSD sale sometime soon!

I got EAP back in Dec 2018 and while I think the auto lane change sounds great in theory, in practice it is not worth what you'd have to pay now to get it. Since you still have to be fully involved and confirm the lane change (and I think you'd be a fool not to), the "extra" of having the car turn the steering wheel to effect the lane change hardly rises to the level of notable convenience compared to turning the steering wheel yourself.

 

[JayNJ]

This.

I'm a huge fan of autopilot. But I'm also a realist and NOA just isn't quite there yet. I've turned off automatic lanes changes as it's just easier and more efficient for me to use the turn signal to change lanes when I am ready.

I suspect FSD will be similar when it eventually arrives. But I suspect we are a ways off from that happening. I'm guessing that turns at intersections will be slow and awkward or something similar to make it a neat feature but not polished enough to use reliably.

So... If the money concerns you I'd just wait.

I don't think FSD will ever arrive. It will be small incremental capabilities that get added in over time. Stop lights, signs, more signs, right turns, left turns, etc.

 

[scott1002]

Does FSD support self parking right now? If so, isn't that worth some portion of the purchase price? Assuming it actually works.

 

[jebinc]

I don't think FSD will ever arrive. It will be small incremental capabilities that get added in over time. Stop lights, signs, more signs, right turns, left turns, etc.

Or there will be one very small location in the US where it works as advertised - Allowing Tesla to claim it delivered on it's promise to customers, albeit late. Meanwhile, they will have raked in billions for all the FSD's sold at $6000 (including mine)….

 

[Rockster]

I like being an early adopter. I also wanted to help Tesla reach their goal by funding FSD up front. I also didn't want to fret for years wondering "is now the time to buy FSD? will the price go up? what should i do?" So, I bought FSD with the car and am enjoying what I get, as I get it.

 

[JeffnReno]

I bought EAP when I purchased my car over a year ago this month and paid $5k for it. It has vastly improved just in that time frame. I had always intended to buy FSD after benefiting from the tax credit and when it went on sale for an additional $2k instead of the $4k I had expected to pay, I jumped all over it. As far as spending the money on the performance version instead, 0-60 mph in 5 second on my LR RWD is faster than I need to go and I keep it in Chill Mode most of the time as Standard Mode is almost painful for this old man. I use EAP features almost daily and have zero regrets paying for it and adding the FSD should have me inline to get the newest HW3 when the roll out to retrofit cars (that have paid for it) comes along. Several comments mention basing how long you intend to keep the car as a consideration and while I lean towards agreeing with that, depending on when FSD arrives, it should add to resale value. I must say that it took me forever to get my first Tesla so unless I hit the lottery, it will probably be my last and will have to be pryed from my cold dead hands...;-)

 

[dbravo53]

I haven’t seen enough progress to believe Tesla’s claim that the car will drive itself on city streets by the end of the year.

Musk/Tesla has a poor history reg FSD timeline.

1. Musk said that by the year 2017 the car was going to self drive coast to coast. It is now 2019.

2. Tesla has been claiming in its order page since March that Adv. Summon is available. Musk said 3 months ago that it would be available in a week. Three months later, he says it is coming but the problem is harder than they originally thought.

3. Tesla claims that the car is currently capable of driving itself from on-ramp to offramp. This is due to Navigate on Autopilot. Most of us who have used NoA would agree that the feature is not very good yet.

I bought AP+FSD when they had a sale. But FSD has a long way to go and I don’t trust Tesla’s timeline. But I really want Tesla to prove me wrong.

Thanks for all the input, pretty sure I'm leaning towards the side of just buying it at purchase. Even if all the features don't come on elon's time line (which i expect they won't) I would still enjoy seeing the software improve with each update. Full autonomy isnt as important to me as just making long distance travel much easier requiring less and less of my attention over time ( I plan on doing lots of long distance travel).

i would wait a while

 

[Knightshade]

Does FSD support self parking right now? If so, isn't that worth some portion of the purchase price? Assuming it actually works.

Teslas have had self parking for years now.

it works, it's just often not worth using (it's typically a lot slower than just doing it youself, and requires parking between 2 cars to work at all)

 

[trak0r]

Before when I sort of decided to get a Model 3, I would plan and think that getting FSD included is a no brainer option. Now, when I'm actually close to ordering one too, I started to look at things a bit more realistically and at the moment none of the features included in FSD are that appealing. I'm not impressed by NoA and I'd just use "regular" AP most of the time. Summon would be a nice to have feature but again, almost zero real world actual usability - for now.

My opinion is that FSD can be skipped for now. There's absolutely no way to know that the price will indeed increase that much. Since I will finance a large part of the car, I don't want to include an option which is not 100% functional yet to pay interest for.

Totally glad I skipped for now. I watched a video I1 tesla put out showing Ver 3 hardware can't even stay on its side of the road and is marginally superior to ver 2.5. It has a lot of learning to do (years) before Ver 3 can actually be useful. Tesla's choice of not using LIDAR for the next few years as a safety net is ultimately going to be a huge mistake investors will regret not fighting.

I also didn't buy into FSD or AP to instead opt into buying the performance package; Since I can't easily change upgrade powertrain hardware. Well worth the performance upgrade, especially since I track and SCCA the car regularly and enjoy the Brembo two piece disk brakes and 810 A silicon carbide inverter over 500 A standard inverter for rear PMSRM (Permanent Magnet Switched Reluctance Motor) and most importantly so far at track, Track mode!

 

[wcorey]

I haven’t seen enough progress to believe Tesla’s claim that the car will drive itself on city streets by the end of the year.

Musk/Tesla has a poor history reg FSD timeline.

1. Musk said that by the year 2017 the car was going to self drive coast to coast. It is now 2019.

2. Tesla has been claiming in its order page since March that Adv. Summon is available. Musk said 3 months ago that it would be available in a week. Three months later, he says it is coming but the problem is harder than they originally thought.

3. Tesla claims that the car is currently capable of driving itself from on-ramp to offramp. This is due to Navigate on Autopilot. Most of us who have used NoA would agree that the feature is not very good yet.

I bought AP+FSD when they had a sale. But FSD has a long way to go and I don’t trust Tesla’s timeline. But I really want Tesla to prove me wrong.

There is a part of me that kind of agrees with respect to NoA. However, I know people who have gone cross country and near cross country that have directly told me NoA did 99% of the driving itself. From my own experience it does pretty damn good at highway/interstate travel and does exits really well now. When you think about it secondary roads are not much different than highway -> highway w/ NoA. There's a guy? on here that hacked the software to run the advanced stuff we don't see and it does stop signs and traffic lights. I'm not sure about speed limit signs but it already knows how to turn and stop so doing secondary roads isn't that giant of a leap. Adv summon is a party trick but knowing how to navigate a parking lot is crucially important. It's got to do it faster than it is currently, 1mph is a joke, people walk faster than that. At 1 mph it's a hazard.
Musk, very deliberately stated, then thought about what he said as if to correct it, and then restated FSD would be feature complete by year's end. Note: Feature Complete is NOT GA. It will need training. Presumably it will be available just as NoA and AutoSteer is now, you must have positive control of the car at all times. In pilot lingo, you are the driver-in-command at all times. That said, I use autosteer on secondary roads all the time. I just have to stop when I am first in line at a light or stop sign and physically turn the car then re-engage AS.