Fund a big percent of your M3 purchase by buying Tesla Stock

[MitchJi]

I like to do a check and see what the big investors are doing. For instance, Goldman Sachs, figure they know what's up, right? They sold 1.4M shares of TSLA as of their 6/30/2016 reporting. Now they still hold 1.4M shares. But if one unloads half the position, what's that phrase? Actions speak louder than words.... or analyst recs?

They knew what they were doing when they got bailed out (free money, a no brainer):

Less than three years after receiving $10 billion in bailout money from American taxpayers, Goldman Sachs informed its employees recently that it will fire 1,000 workers in the United States and elsewhere, shifting their jobs to the cheaper Singaporean labor market.

WOW! (Take #2). Price T. Rowe upped their stake in TSLA by 42.6%, or 3,139,231 shares! So just five largest institutional shareowners collectively increased their TSLA position in Q2 by 9.5M shares!

Good luck to everyone. Just don't risk it all on one stock..... please.

Conventional advice, good advice unless you pick a winner:

Mark Cuban on Investing: Diversification Is for Idiots
Entrepreneur Mark Cuban sits down with the Journal's Alan Murray and weighs in on the fluctuating market. Cuban is investing in volatility. He believes "buy and hold is a crock of $%#!" and diversification is for idiots.

 

[MitchJi]

How do you know he has a better investing track record than me? Of course, he has much higher volume, but my gains in percentage points have been quite high, having bought mostly google, apple and sirius years ago, along with Canadian bank stocks for dividends. Also, I bought those american stocks, in US funds, when our dollar was at or above par, adding another ~25% to the profits.

It's much easier to make a big percentage with a small portfolio than a huge fund, which restricts him to a max of about 3% in any one stock.

The good thing about these debates is that we can come back in two years and see who is right. (I say that but then forget the conversation one week later... )

I don't think it will take that long .

 

[dsvick]

Now, I hope the shorts are wrong, and if the past is any indication of the future, they will be, but at the same time $500/share by 2018 or so? That's just plain nuts.

Ron Baron clearly has a different opinion.

No, at leat not in the interview you quoted, he didn't. At one point you quoted him as saying "...Tesla Motors could be a stock he owns for the next 10 to 20 years" then later, he says in three years "we've made very little so far. But often times it takes us a very long time". Neither of those in any way support your position that people will be able to fund their M3 abotu 2 years from now by investing in Tesla today. Sure, regardless of the rate of return, if you invest enough you'll make what you need (unless it's a negative rate), but most people don't have that sort of money.

Diversification and holding stock as a long term investment is the generally recommended conventional wisdom, yes people make money all the time on shorter, single stock investments but those are the exception, not the rule.

 

[Big Dog]

Cashed out my position today at a loss.

While I'm bullish on Tesla long-term -- have 2 deposits down for M -- I really believe that Solar City will be a drag on earnings in the next few years. Besides early adopters, the economics of solar market just are not here, yet. In addition, I believe the rocket division will suck up Elon's time so that SolarCity and the auto group suffer near term.

 

[Red Sage]

Cashed out my position today at a loss.

Ah. I take it that means you didn't buy sometime in September 2011, then? My condolences.

While I'm bullish on Tesla long-term -- have 2 deposits down for M -- I really believe that Solar City will be a drag on earnings in the next few years. Besides early adopters, the economics of solar market just are not here, yet.

That is a position that some feel is realistic, though I see it as pessimistic. Because people often forget that qualifier at the end: 'yet'. Naysayers in particular typically jump in with the usual catch phrases about subsidies and government support and free market blah, blah, blah at this point.

In addition, I believe the rocket division will suck up Elon's time so that SolarCity and the auto group suffer near term.

Actually, it is SpaceX that has 'suffered' due to Elon having to spend half of each week working at Tesla Motors.

 

[Canuck]

I always stay away from the markets close to, and after, Presidential elections. There's just too much unpredictability to be buying and selling at those times, at least for my low tolerance level. Others will say those are the best times to make big gains.

 

[Big Dog]

Naysayers in particular typically jump in with the usual catch phrases about subsidies and government support and free market blah, blah, blah at this point.

I just look at it as an investment. I see that you live in SoCal. Use LA, for example, average home electricity bill is $100/mo. per DWP. Thus, if the average LA person goes completely off the grid -- not humanely possible -- they could save a little over $1k/yr in electricity. Balance that against the investment to purchase/install solar panels. What is the payback timeline? (And note the fact that most SoCal homeowners are stretched on their mortgage so adding on more debt is just no doable.)

OTOH, in the next five years, California is targeting Time of Use billing (2019?). If they jack up the rates for the heat of the day, perhaps Solar becomes more financially attractive. That being said, I'd be surprised if the Utilities could get away with jacking rates when folks need a/c the most. In any event, 2019 is not yet.

 

[Red Sage]

I just look at it as an investment. I see that you live in SoCal. Use LA, for example, average home electricity bill is $100/mo. per DWP. Thus, if the average LA person goes completely off the grid -- not humanely possible -- they could save a little over $1k/yr in electricity. Balance that against the investment to purchase/install solar panels. What is the payback timeline? (And note the fact that most SoCal homeowners are stretched on their mortgage so adding on more debt is just no doable.)

OTOH, in the next five years, California is targeting Time of Use billing (2019?). If they jack up the rates for the heat of the day, perhaps Solar becomes more financially attractive. That being said, I'd be surprised if the Utilities could get away with jacking rates when folks need a/c the most. In any event, 2019 is not yet.

You don't understand. Waiting until 'yet' comes is far too late to get anything worthwhile done. There are some that sincerely believe, and state so with pride as often as they can, such ridiculous pronouncements as:

• Tesla Motors should not have released any cars at all until they could do so in high volume at price points 1) below $25,000... 2) below $15,000... 3) below $10,000...
• Tesla Motors should not have bothered with releasing any cars until each one had a range of at least 500 miles...
• Tesla Motors should have realized it would be IMPOSSIBLE to sell electric cars en masse before battery packs had the same energy density as gasoline...

That is just a small sampling of the utterly stupid concepts floated by the 'Not Ready for Prime Time Naysayers'. Their number one point is always unfailingly that electric cars cannot do a given X, Y, or Z... 'yet'. And they are always moving the goalposts. None of them seem to realize they are running out of roads to post their hopes and goals for the utter failure of electric vehicles.

Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no! It ain't over now! 'Cause when the going gets tough... ... ...the tough get going! Who's with me? Let's GO!

 

[vortexz]

Hey I went to 24option.com and I bought 10.000$ worth of TESLA actions from them.
I hope they go up from now
Thanks for the tips

 

[MitchJi]

Cashed out my position today at a loss.

While I'm bullish on Tesla long-term -- have 2 deposits down for M -- I really believe that Solar City will be a drag on earnings in the next few years. Besides early adopters, the economics of solar market just are not here, yet. In addition, I believe the rocket division will suck up Elon's time so that SolarCity and the auto group suffer near term.

I'm sorry to hear that.

SolarCity got a sweet deal on their panel factory:

New York State is paying 100% of the original quote for the plant and factory equipment.

Solar City is responsible for any cost overruns. Building is almost complete and equipment has been ordered. Have not heard of any overruns yet.

I remember( but not 100% sure) New York State budgeted $750M for the project and Solar City $150M for cost overruns.

Solar City will lease for $1 per year for next 20 years. Once it hits its revenue and hiring minimums it has the option of expanding the plant with equipment to 5X the original size at New York taxpayer expense.

 

[MitchJi]

Fund a big percent of your M3 purchase by buying Tesla Stock

That is not my position. Thread title. My thinking is that quite a few people are saving for an M3, and they wi ll come out way ahead if they put their savings into TSLA.

Neither of those in any way support your position that people will be able to fund their M3 about 2 years from now by investing in Tesla today. Sure, regardless of the rate of return, if you invest enough you'll make what you need (unless it's a negative rate), but most people don't have that sort of money.

In other words, if you are saving for an M3 you have a double hedge when buying TSLA. When the M3 ramps the SP will rise, and even if M3 is never produced at all (not going to happen) TE production will cause the SP to rise.

I think it's close to a slam dunk.

But I think I should have provided more sources of information.

I am sharing information and opinions which I believe is very close to a slam dunk. But please be careful with your hard earned money. Please do your own research and DD before investing. Please don't invest money that you can't afford to lose!

I encourage everyone who eant to know more to watch (or read) the following:
Billionaire investor bets on Tesla being one of the world's biggest companies

Billionaire long-term investor Ron Baron said Tuesday that Tesla Motors could be a stock he owns for the next 10 to 20 years.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk interviewed by Investment Icon Ron Baron

Elon Musk recounts Tesla’s history at 2016 shareholders meeting (2016.5.31)
Elon Musk did something quite unexpected a the Tesla shareholder meeting. For more than 2 hours, he told in great details the history of Tesla and invited long time employees to join him on stage to recount their own experience. The result is a 3 1/2 hour event filled with new Tesla insights!

Articles/megaposts by DaveT

Index of DaveT's articles

Excellent information, but a little overwhelming at first, so I asked Dave for advice:
DaveT said:
Regarding how to make the most of the resources on my page, probably the best way is just to read through all my megaposts (#1...#15) and that would give a decent background on TSLA.

 

[MitchJi]

But I think I should have provided more sources of information.

Continued:

Published on Aug 4, 2016 - AUDIO
Although Tesla fell far short of Wall Street estimates for earnings and revenue, Elon Musk highlighted progress in increasing their production capabilities, which have long been an issue for Tesla Motors. With these improvements, Elon said they are on track to deliver 50,000 vehicles in the latter half of this year, which reaffirms the previous guidance.

Tesla Gigafactory Grand Opening Elon Musk July 29, 2016 Full
With a bonus Q&A. Learn more about the largest and most sophisticated factory in the world from Elon and JB!

Tesla Q1 2016 Earnings Call - Elon Musk talks Model 3 manufacturing challenges (2016.5.4) AUDIO
Elon Musk participates in Tesla Earnings Call Q&A in the first quarter following the announcement of Model 3. A lot of the focus is geared towards the massive manufacturing challenges facing the Model 3 mass market production demand.

Elon Musk and JB Straubel share their vision on energy 2015

Published on Jul 15, 2015
Hundreds of visitors crowded into the InterContinental Grand Ballroom to kick-off an exciting week at Intersolar North America 2015. The opening ceremony featured a top-notch line-up of speakers, including Tesla’s co-founder and CTO JB Straubel, Fraunhofer Institute director Eicke Weber, California Solar Energy Industries Association (CALSEIA) executive director Bernadette Del Chiaro and New York State Senator Kevin S. P

 

[Red Sage]

I just look at it as an investment. I see that you live in SoCal. Use LA, for example, average home electricity bill is $100/mo. per DWP. Thus, if the average LA person goes completely off the grid -- not humanely possible -- they could save a little over $1k/yr in electricity. Balance that against the investment to purchase/install solar panels. What is the payback timeline? (And note the fact that most SoCal homeowners are stretched on their mortgage so adding on more debt is just no doable.)

Well, my Brother was happy to see that his electric bill had dropped to something like $0.71 the first month after installing solar panels. Me? I personally believe that there is a certain benefit to be gained by being able to give The FINGER to a utility company. The biggest shame though is that municipalities do not allow people to go 100% off grid due to their monopolistic contracts with utilities that require their being used in order to get a Certificate of Occupancy for a property.

 

[Big Dog]

my Brother was happy to see that his electric bill had dropped to something like $0.71 the first month after installing solar panels.

Sounds great; I'd love to do that deal myself. But, even tho my house faces south, the roofline does not.

What was his installation costs? What was his average monthly bill prior to the solar panels?

The biggest shame though is that municipalities do not allow people to go 100% off grid...

Actually, they do. Just stop paying the bill and eventually they will turn off the electricity. But then what happens during SoCal's Grey May and June Gloom, or when a winter storm rolls in and leaves it cloudy for several days? Does he have enough Powerwall/Battery storage to get thru the no-sun days?

I personally believe that there is a certain benefit to be gained by being able to give The FINGER to a utility company.

Psychic income is great, but I'd rather have the cash for retirement.

 

[Garlan Garner]

I'm buying Tesla stock anyway. Not to fund my M3...just in general.

 

[Red Sage]

Sounds great; I'd love to do that deal myself. But, even tho my house faces south, the roofline does not.

Most of the panels went on top of the detached garage at the back of his house. A few went on the second floor roofline.

What was his installation costs?

I don't know. I got the impression it bordered upon 'nothing' though he didn't say.

What was his average monthly bill prior to the solar panels?

He might have said it was something over $100, possibly as high as $150 per month. It's a pretty big place with five bedrooms.

Actually, they do. Just stop paying the bill and eventually they will turn off the electricity.

My point is that the city will also revoke the Certificate of Occupancy, declaring the household unfit as a residence. Effectively making it a moderately 'condemned' location that must be vacated. There would almost certainly be fines attached as well.

But then what happens during SoCal's Grey May and June Gloom, or when a winter storm rolls in and leaves it cloudy for several days? Does he have enough Powerwall/Battery storage to get thru the no-sun days?

I don't believe those issues have a great effect on modern solar panels here. If it were the Family Homestead in Mississippi, where it sometimes seems as though the sun doesn't come up until 10:00 am and then sets by 2:00 pm during inclement weather, it might be a concern. Chances are we would use a combination of a windmill system, battery backup, and a natural gas turbine generator there.

Psychic income is great, but I'd rather have the cash for retirement.

I really have no idea what you meant here. But just in case...

'You're all aces in my book -- but I want the last check I write... to bounce!" -- Carl Reiner as Saul Bloom, 'Ocean's Twelve' (2004)​

 

[number12]

Has anyone considered funding their model 3 purchase by shorting Tesla stock?

 

[Garlan Garner]

Has anyone considered funding their model 3 purchase by shorting Tesla stock?

I don't know what shorting a stock is....however I hope it starts traveling north soon.

 

[JeffK]

I don't know what shorting a stock is....however I hope it starts traveling north soon.

I'm butchering it, but the laymen version:

Shorting a stock is betting against it and is basically selling a stock that is not yours and promising to give it back... when the stock price goes down you buy the stock at the lower price to "give it back" and you get to keep the difference $$$.

If the stock price goes up then you have to pay the difference which has the potential to be substantial if the stock does well.

Shorting stocks is therefore riskier as the potential for loss is greater than purchasing a stock for long term investment.

 

[Garlan Garner]

I'm butchering it, but the laymen version:

Shorting a stock is betting against it and is basically selling a stock that is not yours and promising to give it back... when the stock price goes down you buy the stock at the lower price to "give it back" and you get to keep the difference $$$.

If the stock price goes up then you have to pay the difference which has the potential to be substantial if the stock does well.

Shorting stocks is therefore riskier as the potential for loss is greater than purchasing a stock for long term investment.

I'm still confused so......obviously "to answer the question"....I ain't looking to short a stock.