Should I keep or trade in my 2018 Tesla P3D for either a Model S (or when available a Highland Model 3)?

[joebruin77]

I have a 2018 Tesla Model 3 Performance with Enhanced Autopilot that has about 43K miles. The car is in very good shape with no major issues.

As I approach 5 years of ownership, I am debating whether to keep this car or trade it in to Tesla and get a new car. Tesla quoted me a trade in value of $24,700.

Here are the four options I am considering:

1) Trade it in and get a new Model S.
2) Trade it in and get a used Model S.
3) Keep it until the new Model 3 Highland is available here in the US and get either the dual motor Highland Model 3 or the performance Highland, assuming one will be offered at some point.
4) Keep it for another 3 or 4 years and invest the money I would have spent on a new car.

The reasons for selling is that 1) the car will soon be over 5 years old 2) although it is a blast to drive, I would like to have a car that is a bit more quiet and has a smoother, less stiff suspension 3) the trade in value of my current car will continue to go down and 4) with the recent price reductions, a new base Model S is much more affordable than it was a year ago.

If you were in my shoes, what would you do?

I appreciate your thoughts and suggestions.
Thank you,
Joe

 

[jjrandorin]

I chose to keep mine (2018 Model 3P), because Its nice not having a car payment and nothing is wrong with the car (other than what I consider to be excessive road noise).

 

[jjrandorin]

I should also say that, if the "powershare" feature that is announced for cybertruck comes to model 3s, that would be enough to cause me to really consider selling mine and buying a new one.

I already have Tesla solar and powerwalls, and having the car be able to be an additional backup (given that I already have this other stuff) would be enough of a tipping point to make me consider having a car payment again on this car.

I still like the car however, and if I bought a new one it would basically be the same one. Model S is bigger than I like, My wife already has a model Y performance that I drive also, model X is bigger than we need as empty nesters, and I think the cybertruck is the ugliest vehicle I have ever seen so its a complete, utter, 1000% non starter for me.

Once other manufacturers (like BMW) also deliver on the "native NACS" port in their vehicles, I will also seriously consider them again.

 

[RedModel3]

I have a 2018 RWD with 56K miles. I've got EAP and lifetime premium connectivity. If you have the money, by all means do what you want. As for me, I haven't noticed any problems that would make me think I need to trade it in. I don't plan to get FSD, and I can still get regular updates. For me, I'd need some major improvements from Tesla, or major issues with the car, before I would consider trading it.

 

[PianoAl]

... if the "powershare" feature that is announced for cybertruck comes to model 3s, that would be enough to cause me to really consider selling mine and buying a new one.

Same here. I'd probably order one the next day.

Any rumors of that happening?

 

[BSparx]

I took a look at the Model S this past May and found the experience underwhelming. We chose the Model 3 instead. The Model 3 if fun to drive and comfortable. If in your situation I would wait for the Model 3 Highland.

My hope is that the Highland is a smoother suspension and a quieter ride, but I am not sure if it will meet those expectations.

 

[BSparx]

What is it that draws you to the model S?

 

[afadeev]

I have a 2018 Tesla Model 3 Performance with Enhanced Autopilot that has about 43K miles. The car is in very good shape with no major issues.
As I approach 5 years of ownership, I am debating whether to keep this car or trade it in to Tesla and get a new car. Tesla quoted me a trade in value of $24,700.

That sounds about right.
~40% residual after 5 years is not the worst, and definitely not the best. Depreciation curve flattens from here on out!

Here are the four options I am considering:

1) Trade it in and get a new Model S.
2) Trade it in and get a used Model S.
3) Keep it until the new Model 3 Highland is available here in the US and get either the dual motor Highland Model 3 or the performance Highland, assuming one will be offered at some point.
4) Keep it for another 3 or 4 years and invest the money I would have spent on a new car.

Questions, in likely order of motivation:

1. How boarded are you with the current car? There is a point in any vehicle ownership when you just get bored with the current ride and want something new. If you are there, you are there.
2. Is money is at all a constraint? If not, I say get a new Model S Plaid, while it's on fire sale!
3. If money is a consideration (you mentioned used MS), then stay put with what you've got.

The reasons for selling is that 1) the car will soon be over 5 years old 2) although it is a blast to drive, I would like to have a car that is a bit more quiet and has a smoother, less stiff suspension 3) the trade in value of my current car will continue to go down and 4) with the recent price reductions, a new base Model S is much more affordable than it was a year ago.

If you were in my shoes, what would you do?

Notes in order listed:

1. This is completely irrelevant. Your warranty expired at 4 years, and battery warranty is good until 8 years or 100,000 miles. Sell before then, not now.
2. Upgrade Model 3 suspension with one of these (Tesla's new suspension still sucks):
   • Suspension Archives
   • Model 3
3. Sure, all cars depreciate. However, new cars depreciate at the higher rate than older ones!
4. True. All Teslas are likely to get even more affordable in the future, as the demand for EVs at the current price levels remains to soft to meet Tesla's stated goal of 40% y/y sales growth. I would expect yet more price cuts in the near future.

See above!
I've chosen to stay put, and upgrade my TM3P's wheels (forged Apex VS5-RS with 265/35-19 PS4S's) and suspension (Ohlins DFV Long-Stroke GT's).
Way better than anything Tesla will be selling any time soon, if ever!

Once other manufacturers (like BMW) also deliver on the "native NACS" port in their vehicles, I will also seriously consider them again.

Forgot this bit - have you test driven Lucid Air?
If you are seriously looking at Model S, you owe yourself to test drive Lucid Air instead.
Way higher quality interior, better ergonomics, better suspension, and better tech/efficiency. It's what ex-Tesla engineers designed after they got sick and tired of working for Musk. Definitely an improvement on Model S, IMHO.

a

 

[joebruin77]

What is it that draws you to the model S?

I agree with you that the Model 3 is sportier and more engaging than the Model S. The reason I am drawn to the Model S is because I like the idea of having more space, a more refined cabin, and air suspension. I do find the ride of my 2018 P3D to have a stiff, sporty suspension. That is great when you are carving through a canyon, but not so great when you are driving on a longer road trip. Plus, to be honest, I have been driving the same car for 5 years and it would just be fun to have a change. There are several non Teslas on the market that I find interesting, but maintaining full access to all superchargers is very important to me. So I am only considering another Tesla.

I do like the look of the Model 3 Highland. But I would want to wait a year or two past when it makes its debut in the US. Tesla has a history of having some kinks to work out with their first editions of new models.

I actually think the Model S, even though it first came out a decade ago, is still a very sharp looking car. While I love my Model 3, I have never loved the design. Perhaps I will like the design of the Highland more.

 

[joebruin77]

If you are seriously looking at Model S, you owe yourself to test drive Lucid Air instead.
Way higher quality interior, better ergonomics, better suspension, and better tech/efficiency. It's what ex-Tesla engineers designed after they got sick and tired of working for Musk. Definitely an improvement on Model S, IMHO.

Thanks for your detailed reply. Lots for me to think over.

I have indeed considered the Lucid Air and think it is a great car. But there are two reasons why I would not want a Lucid Air. First, the nearest Lucid Service Center is probably a 45-50 minute drive from my home. Not horrible, but definitely not as convenient as the 10 minute drive to my neighborhood Tesla Service Center, which in general has provided me with excellent service. Second, even when Lucid has the NACS, it won't have access to as many Supercharges as a Tesla. There are some superchargers in California that will still be Tesla only. Plus, V2 superchargers can only be accessed by Teslas. So for maximum access to the Supercharger network, I want another Tesla.

 

[doc333]

That sounds about right.
~40% residual after 5 years is not the worst, and definitely not the best. Depreciation curve flattens from here on out!



Questions, in likely order of motivation:

1. How boarded are you with the current car? There is a point in any vehicle ownership when you just get bored with the current ride and want something new. If you are there, you are there.
2. Is money is at all a constraint? If not, I say get a new Model S Plaid, while it's on fire sale!
3. If money is a consideration (you mentioned used MS), then stay put with what you've got.

Notes in order listed:

1. This is completely irrelevant. Your warranty expired at 4 years, and battery warranty is good until 8 years or 100,000 miles. Sell before then, not now.
2. Upgrade Model 3 suspension with one of these (Tesla's new suspension still sucks):
   • Suspension Archives
   • Model 3
3. Sure, all cars depreciate. However, new cars depreciate at the higher rate than older ones!
4. True. All Teslas are likely to get even more affordable in the future, as the demand for EVs at the current price levels remains to soft to meet Tesla's stated goal of 40% y/y sales growth. I would expect yet more price cuts in the near future.

See above!
I've chosen to stay put, and upgrade my TM3P's wheels (forged Apex VS5-RS with 265/35-19 PS4S's) and suspension (Ohlins DFV Long-Stroke GT's).
Way better than anything Tesla will be selling any time soon, if ever!



Forgot this bit - have you test driven Lucid Air?
If you are seriously looking at Model S, you owe yourself to test drive Lucid Air instead.
Way higher quality interior, better ergonomics, better suspension, and better tech/efficiency. It's what ex-Tesla engineers designed after they got sick and tired of working for Musk. Definitely an improvement on Model S, IMHO.

a

Only danger (well, might be a few others) with Lucid....will they even exist in 5 years??

 

[afadeev]

Only danger (well, might be a few others) with Lucid....will they even exist in 5 years??

Isn't that the FUD that everyone was spreading about Tesla a few years ago?

 

[jjrandorin]

Isn't that the FUD that everyone was spreading about Tesla a few years ago?

It was, yeah. I think Lucid has a good enough product that, even were the company to fail, someone else would buy them so the products likely wont be orphaned. Thats the same way I felt about Tesla in 2018.

 

[joebruin77]

Only danger (well, might be a few others) with Lucid....will they even exist in 5 years??

Also keep in mind the Saudis are bankrolling Lucid. Unless the Saudis pull their financial backing, I think Lucid will be around for a while.

 

[doc333]

Isn't that the FUD that everyone was spreading about Tesla a few years ago?

A little bit of apples and oranges... a "few" years ago Tesla had no competition (debatable if they even have any today that can sell EVs at a profit ...except for the Chinese) so they could make a few missteps since if you wanted a leading edge EV, where would you go? Also, how close is your Lucid Service center to you? And, how close is your Lucid proprietary charging infrastructure to you? Agree, the Saudis are a factor, but will they throw money at them ad infinitem? Model Y scaling up to become the best selling car Globally and Musk relentlessly looking for ways to cut prices, puts the other competitors in a tough spot of having to lower their prices while hemorrhaging money on every car they sell already. Not saying it's impossible Lucid will survive, but I would rather be in Musk's shoes.

 

[zoomer0056]

If you were in my shoes, what would you do?

Sell it and get a new one. Do not trade it in, you'll get ripped off. Which car should you get if you were me ... only you, if you weren't me, can answer.

 

[Heckraiser]

I understand the urge to get a new car. I'm continually annoyed by the rough ride of the 3, and I'm also just a restless person when it comes to cars and I'm always thinking about what's next. That said, I'm also a cheap-arse. I drove around used late-model S and though it was definitely an improvement in ride quality, it wasn't great either (honestly a Toyota minivan has both thoroughly beat in the ride quality department). I have pretty crap roads in my area.

The decision I've made is to hang onto my model 3 for a few more years and see what tickles my fancy down the road. Polestar 2 has improved range every year since introduction (still shy of the 3, of course), BMW i4 looks great (really love that it looks just like a regular 4-series), if Genesis ever electrifies the G70 (sedan, not SUV), that would be a really great car. And of course, the Highland looks like they made all the right changes in all the right places too. So I'm holding onto my money and taking the "wait and see" approach.

Access to superchargers is not really an issue for me though. In nearly 5 years, I have charged outside of my own garage maybe 4 times???

If you sell, I would also sell private party rather than trade-in. You'll get more money every time.

 

[The Other Dan]

If a rough ride is your main gripe, just get a set of comfort coilovers from the company if your choice. There are plenty used sets available to lower the cost outlay. That will also renew your enjoyment of the car for a while. Continue to keep your money until something more deserving comes along.

 

[joebruin77]

I realize no one has a crystal ball and there are multiple unpredictable factors that can affect resale value. But if Tesla offered me $24,700 for my 2018 P3D now, any rough guess on what I could get for the car if I keep it for 2 more years and try to sell it when it is 7 years old?

The car currently has about 43K miles. My guess is that in 2 years, it will have around 60-63K miles.

 

[ODWms]

I have zero intention of trading any time soon. My 2018 Performance has just a little less than 100k miles on it, and it looks as good today as the day I brought it home. Rides and drives like it too. Thanks to the constant updating nature of Tesla ownership, the car is actually BETTER to me now than that day in may respects.

To each his own. But I’m going to drive this car at least another 100k miles, barring something completely unforeseen and / or significantly better coming along to change my mind. At this point it’s a ‘free’ brand new car!