Should I keep or trade in my 2018 Tesla P3D for either a Model S (or when available a Highland Model 3)?

[afadeev]

I realize no one has a crystal ball and there are multiple unpredictable factors that can affect resale value. But if Tesla offered me $24,700 for my 2018 P3D now, any rough guess on what I could get for the car if I keep it for 2 more years and try to sell it when it is 7 years old?

A rough rule-of-thumb is that a car looses 20% of its value when it leaves dealer's parking lot. Then 10% every year after that.
That's obviously too generic, and does not take mileage and condition into account. Or Tesla dropping MSRP prices by 20-25%, thus propagating an equivalent value drop through the used car market.

Absent additional (Tesla) depreciation shocks, the 10% annual depreciation declines in absolute $ value will be down to $2-3K/year from here on out.

The car currently has about 43K miles. My guess is that in 2 years, it will have around 60-63K miles.

FWIW, I have 62.5K miles on my 2019 TM3P.
Carvana keeps sending me monthly "your value" reminders. The last one quoted $21,800.
Carvana was the low-balling leader when I was shopping to sell my car this August/September. Others were a few $K higher. I could not get anything close to what I thought would be reasonable, so I kept the car and decided to upgrade it instead.

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[joebruin77]

I just want to thank everyone for your input. All the information you have provided to me has been very helpful.

Although I am still scheduled to take a Model S for a test drive this coming weekend, I am 95% sure I will keep my 2018 P3D. The reality is the car has relatively low mileage for a 5 year old car and I should be able to drive it for 2-4 more years. Instead of dropping $70K on a new Model S Plaid, I can instead invest that money for the next 2-4 years.

In addition to some of you sharing with me your stories of higher mileage Model 3's that are doing great, I also saw a roadtrip video on Youtube posted by Kyle with Out of Spec. He went on a roadtrip in his 2018 P3D that has 120,000 miles on it. Even though his car has a few issues, it is running well enough to take him on a long interstate roadtrip.

Thank you again,
Joe

 

[Rohhee]

I think you made the right choice. I would do the same until I find a car I WANT. The Highland looks nice in pictures, but I have to see in person and drive it. In the end losing money will happen, but not driving the car you want because of a change of pace might be a worse decision ...plus a new car payment.

BTW, you have one of the sickest cars. I cannot see you leave us. LOL.

 

[Mcgugupapa]

I would sell it and lease a Lucid air

 

[D.E.]

I have a 2018 Tesla Model 3 Performance with Enhanced Autopilot that has about 43K miles. The car is in very good shape with no major issues.

As I approach 5 years of ownership, I am debating whether to keep this car or trade it in to Tesla and get a new car. Tesla quoted me a trade in value of $24,700.

Here are the four options I am considering:

1) Trade it in and get a new Model S.
2) Trade it in and get a used Model S.
3) Keep it until the new Model 3 Highland is available here in the US and get either the dual motor Highland Model 3 or the performance Highland, assuming one will be offered at some point.
4) Keep it for another 3 or 4 years and invest the money I would have spent on a new car.

The reasons for selling is that 1) the car will soon be over 5 years old 2) although it is a blast to drive, I would like to have a car that is a bit more quiet and has a smoother, less stiff suspension 3) the trade in value of my current car will continue to go down and 4) with the recent price reductions, a new base Model S is much more affordable than it was a year ago.

If you were in my shoes, what would you do?

I appreciate your thoughts and suggestions.
Thank you,
Joe

Here’s my opinion for you. Keep the car until the wheels drop off. You’ve already taken the depreciation hit on that one. Save the money, educate your kids, take a vacation, buy some non Tesla stock.

I’ve got a 2017S, it’s great. It’s got FSD, free lifetime supercharging, free data/entertainment. I’ll never sell it. I may give it to my grandson, he’s 6 now so won’t need it for a decade or so. It’s not got many miles on it, 16K. It’s quick enough for me. Sure I’m juvenile enough to want a plaid but that acceleration is unpleasant, violent even. And I wouldn’t want the little guy to be driving one of those in a decade.

Do what you want. As for me I’m so happy with my S.

 

[joebruin77]

Thanks again to everyone who replied. I wanted to share this quick important update.

Today I took a new Model S long range for a test drive. It was black with the white interior (and had a steering wheel, not the yoke). Overall, I was very impressed with the car. It definitely has a more comfortable and quiet ride compared to my 2018 Model 3 Perf. I liked the larger center screen. And it was quick enough. I personally do not see the need to spend extra $$ on the Plaid. The long range is quick enough for me. I highly recommend the Model S long range for anyone considering it.

That said, given that my net cost to "upgrade" would be about $60K, the test drive reinforced my earlier decision to keep my 2018 Model 3 Perf for at least another year or two. Everything I like about the Model S (better ride, more quiet cabin) may also be found in the new upcoming Model 3 Highland Ludicrous. I personally plan to test drive the Highland Ludicrous and the Model S again when both are available and make my decision at that time.

In the past, when I would compare a 5 year old car to a brand new one, there was usually a noticeable difference between the old and new. Because my 2018 has held up so well, it really feels and looks like a new car. Don't get me wrong. The brand new Model S is a great car. I just don't feel like it is $60K better than what I have now.

Hopefully this info is helpful for anyone else facing a similar decision.

Joe

 

[ODWms]

I couldn't agree more, on every point. You've already got essentially a "free," "new" car, that's already giving you 95% of what you want.

 

[SO16]

Here’s my opinion for you. Keep the car until the wheels drop off. You’ve already taken the depreciation hit on that one. Save the money, educate your kids, take a vacation, buy some non Tesla stock.

I’ve got a 2017S, it’s great. It’s got FSD, free lifetime supercharging, free data/entertainment. I’ll never sell it. I may give it to my grandson, he’s 6 now so won’t need it for a decade or so. It’s not got many miles on it, 16K. It’s quick enough for me. Sure I’m juvenile enough to want a plaid but that acceleration is unpleasant, violent even. And I wouldn’t want the little guy to be driving one of those in a decade.

Do what you want. As for me I’m so happy with my S.

I have a 2017 S as well with all those same features but I have over 107k miles on it. Planning on keeping it for a long time yet. Still drives like new and looks near new. I did a couple repair items like replace the upper control arms due to squeaking. (Michigan salty roads probably don’t help.). But so far nothing truly major. And I upgraded the MCU just because I wanted to and it was worth it.

I prefer to keep my cars as long as possible. Hopefully I don’t get hit with a battery replacement cost but if it happens, still cheaper than buying new.

So to the OP, just upgrade the suspension as other posters mentioned and you should be good to go.

 

[oreobbq]

That said, given that my net cost to "upgrade" would be about $60K, the test drive reinforced my earlier decision to keep my 2018 Model 3 Perf for at least another year or two. Everything I like about the Model S (better ride, more quiet cabin) may also be found in the new upcoming Model 3 Highland Ludicrous. I personally plan to test drive the Highland Ludicrous and the Model S again when both are available and make my decision at that time.

What is this imaginary highland ludicrous you talk of? Will see how this comment ages lol.

 

[afadeev]

What is this imaginary highland ludicrous you talk of?

It's whatever this guy rolls on.
Some peeps want some of 'dat:

 

[joebruin77]

Actually, I just saw a video on Youtube filmed at the recent Polestar Day event. They revealed the Polestar 5, which is scheduled to come out in 2025. I don't know if I can afford it, but man that is a very cool and unique car.

 

[Maki22]

The Model 3 Highland is a huge upgrade from a 2018-2020 Model 3.

I went from a 2020 Model 3 LR to a Model 3 Highland LR and it feels like driving a Mercedes. Smooth over the bumps, much more quiet and greatly improved HVAC system are my 3 main impressions of it.

I would at least do a test drive in the Highland before getting a S, you get allot more for your money.

 

[joebruin77]

The Model 3 Highland is a huge upgrade from a 2018-2020 Model 3.

I went from a 2020 Model 3 LR to a Model 3 Highland LR and it feels like driving a Mercedes. Smooth over the bumps, much more quiet and greatly improved HVAC system are my 3 main impressions of it.

I would at least do a test drive in the Highland before getting a S, you get allot more for your money.

Yes, I am definitely going to test drive a Model 3 Highland. It isn't available here in the US yet. I specifically want to drive the performance trim. I read somewhere that when the car is released in the US, they will offer both the LR and the Performance. The Performance is rumored to be something "pretty special".

 

[Maki22]

Yes the performance version sounds interesting, but sadly there aren't any roads here in Norway that can be used to fully enjoy it so I went for range instead since I often go on long drives that includes 2-3 charging stops.

 

[PianoAl]

Yes the performance version sounds interesting, but sadly there aren't any roads here in Norway that can be used to fully enjoy it so I went for range instead since I often go on long drives that includes 2-3 charging stops.

Did you get the acceleration boost?

 

[Maki22]

Did you get the acceleration boost?

Not available for the Highland LR, at least not yet,

 

[Heckraiser]

@Maki22 How have you found the turn signal buttons? This is my #1 concern with the highland... otherwise seems like everything else is an improvement.

 

[Maki22]

@Maki22 How have you found the turn signal buttons? This is my #1 concern with the highland... otherwise seems like everything else is an improvement.

I got used to it quite quickly, just a few hours.

We have allot of roundabouts here and I have no issues blinking in and out of them.

I usually need to turn the wheel 180 degress to take the roundabouts if I want to take an exit to the left so the buttons ends up where my right hand is and I just press the button on the bottom to indicate out of the roundabout.

 

[joebruin77]

When I took the Model S for a test drive, the signal buttons on the steering wheel were my only concern. I did not mind the gear shift being on the screen at all. That was very easy and intuitive.

As for the signal buttons, I could see getting used to them fairly quickly. To me it would make more intuitive sense for the left signal button to be on the left side of the steering wheel and the right one to be on the right side. But again, I could see myself getting used to it. It is not a deal breaker for me.

During the test drive, there were several times I went to turn the non-existent "phantom" signal stalk. Retraining muscle memory takes a bit of time but can be done.

 

[Dyhppy]

Joe in case you’re still reading this thread. I have a 2018 3P with 181,000 miles. Very little maintenance besides tires. Battery still working with 10% degradation. I too felt like the ride was rough. The problem was cheaply solved by installing tein endura pro adjustable shocks. The car feels Wonderful. I'm very curious to compare it to the ride of the highland performance when it comes out. I have tried many other cars from a S plaid to a gt4. I get that you are bored of the 3 but imo it's one of the best all around bargain cars out there. The model s will eat tires due to the camber issues. For people who think the 3 is too noisy try wearing noise cancelling airpods. Really trippy. I think this is more a case of us being spoiled by too much good stuff.