Gen 4 mentioned by Elon

[Grendal]

Roadster and pick-up are two different things. Roadster would be a high-end car (and just think what they could do with newer cells) while a pick-up would be geared to a larger market. Pick-up might actually be Gen 4. Pick up is the one that excites me, because Tesla won't stick to the cheap box front end and would be liable to use a variable ride height to improve efficiency. The Model X is a crucial step because it introduces AWD.

I think the question would be, do they make the truck on the S platform (big) or the E platform (smaller)? Which would sell better, light duty or heavy duty?

 

[ecarfan]

A Tesla pickup needs to compete against, and be better than, a Ford F series, which are full-sized trucks.

 

[RobStark]

I think the question would be, do they make the truck on the S platform (big) or the E platform (smaller)? Which would sell better, light duty or heavy duty?

Franz said they would be using a dedicated platform.

Given that ~78% of the American truck market is full size trucks without question it should be a full size truck.

Tesla should absolutely not think itself into a box saying they need to sell the PU to the same geographical area as the Model S, ie the urban cowboy market on the West Coast and North East.

Since Elon says the target is the F-150, I don't think Tesla will. They will go after the very heart of the pick up market.

The biggest seller is the 1/4 ton, but they do sell quite a few 1/2 ton and 3/4 ton work trucks.

 

[AudubonB]

Just a little help here, Rob, as the truck nomenclature is confusing and many decades out of kilter:


the best-selling truck line is the so-called 1/2 ton. This is the F-150 (Ford) or 1500 (GM & Dodge). I believe Toyota and Nissan don't bother using the no-longer meaningful numbers.

3/4 ton is the F-250 (etc.) series

1-ton is the F-350

Ford also sells for the consumer market its 450 and 550 series - those are effectively exclusively for the full-time 5th wheel and superheavy campers. Beyond the 550 you need a CDL to operate in the USA. And from personal experience, an F-450 or F-550 not only are super-stiff in suspension (obviously), but super-expensive in insurance. We don't have to consider anything over the 1-ton market for TMInc, in my opinion.

The F-150 may be the single biggest selling vehicle, truck or no, in the US (I believe that's true in some of the past twenty years), but, in pickup country, it is regarded as not good for much. Easy to overload its bed, and can't pull anything useful (up to a lightweight boat; not much more).

I've been thinking quite a bit about a Tesla truck, and why it would have to be shaped thus rather than thus... and, although I've my opinions as to how it should perform, I haven't any concrete answers, yet, as to whether the standard configuration of a pickup's shape is the way a T-Truck should look.

 

[jerry33]

I've been thinking quite a bit about a Tesla truck, and why it would have to be shaped thus rather than thus... and, although I've my opinions as to how it should perform, I haven't any concrete answers, yet, as to whether the standard configuration of a pickup's shape is the way a T-Truck should look.

Trucks mostly look the way they look because they have a honking big engine in them and there's just no way to make them look much different. The secondary reason is that they have that macho styling. I suspect that Tesla will have to have much the same look for the same reason they have a very boring style in the Model S. It's what people expect to see.

Aerodynamics isn't all that important because when you're towing something aerodynamics is going to be poor regardless. The frunk will be cavernous, so a Tesla truck frunk could have a refrigerator and stove for those nosegate parties.

 

[Grendal]

This thread is going off topic. That said, I have to wonder whether Tesla will try and make their trucks look conventional or go crazy and start the whole thing from scratch. As Jerry33 pointed out, Tesla doesn't necessarily need as much aerodynamics for a truck so having a conventional look isn't out of the question. I'd be real curious to see what the engineers and Franz could come up with if they decide to go unconventional. How would you make a truck even more practical and functional when you don't have to put a honking big engine right in the front? You probably wouldn't want it made of aluminum either.

 

[RobStark]

Just a little help here, Rob, as the truck nomenclature is confusing and many decades out of kilter:


the best-selling truck line is the so-called 1/2 ton. This is the F-150 (Ford) or 1500 (GM & Dodge). I believe Toyota and Nissan don't bother using the no-longer meaningful numbers.

3/4 ton is the F-250 (etc.) series

1-ton is the F-350

Ford also sells for the consumer market its 450 and 550 series - those are effectively exclusively for the full-time 5th wheel and superheavy campers. Beyond the 550 you need a CDL to operate in the USA. And from personal experience, an F-450 or F-550 not only are super-stiff in suspension (obviously), but super-expensive in insurance. We don't have to consider anything over the 1-ton market for TMInc, in my opinion.

The F-150 may be the single biggest selling vehicle, truck or no, in the US (I believe that's true in some of the past twenty years), but, in pickup country, it is regarded as not good for much. Easy to overload its bed, and can't pull anything useful (up to a lightweight boat; not much more).

I've been thinking quite a bit about a Tesla truck, and why it would have to be shaped thus rather than thus... and, although I've my opinions as to how it should perform, I haven't any concrete answers, yet, as to whether the standard configuration of a pickup's shape is the way a T-Truck should look.

You are correct.

F-150 1/2 ton F-250 3/4 ton and F-350 1 ton.

It seems you have much more practical knowledge I just have theoretical knowledge as it relates to me as a Tesla enthusiast and investor.

In the past 20 years, the Camry outsold the F-150 a few times and the Silverado and GMC truck combined outsold the Ford a few years.

But usually and as of right now F-150 it is the top selling vehicle regardless of type.

At least at first, truck buyers will be weary of Tesla.

Therefore ,IMO, it needs to have that macho traditional truck in your face big rig type styling.

Not the Ranchero/El Camino type styling I have seen concocted by some amateur auto designers on their computers.

And it needs to have at least one sub-model perform as well as the F-350 so the 1/2 ton buyers will think its worthy enough to buy.

 

[vfx]

....
The F-150 may be the single biggest selling vehicle, truck or no, in the US (I believe that's true in some of the past twenty years)...

I thought i heard it was the best selling vehicle in the world. Sounds like a good target for mass adoption.

 

[Reykjavik]

Roadster and pick-up are two different things. Roadster would be a high-end car (and just think what they could do with newer cells) while a pick-up would be geared to a larger market. Pick-up might actually be Gen 4. Pick up is the one that excites me, because Tesla won't stick to the cheap box front end and would be liable to use a variable ride height to improve efficiency. The Model X is a crucial step because it introduces AWD.

They are totally different, which is why it is important that Tesla be able to do multiple projects at once. Right now, the best performance cars on the road are not electric. The i8 is a good development, Porsche's new 918 spyder is a good development, the Mercedes SLS electric drive is a good development, but if they don't go anywhere, as the original roadster fades into obscurity, the perception of the capabilities of EVs will change. The model S has some pretty solid numbers, but it is still a big heavy car. Since the ultimate goal is to replace *all* fossil fuel vehicles, we don't want people to think that to get a nimble little sports car you need an ICE. A new roadster, designed from the ground up to be quick and handle extremely well, while still be usable and reasonably priced (for a sports car) will continue to remind people that EVs are great.

The truck needs to be practical, affordable, rugged, and "manly". It needs to literally replace trucks on the road. The roadster is more about showing that EVs can do all the things an ICE can do. The truck is about actually doing them.

The question is when each of these needs to be brought to market, and when Tesla can do it. That is an interesting question that depends on what happens with the Gen III and with other car manufacturers.

 

[adiggs]

They are totally different, which is why it is important that Tesla be able to do multiple projects at once. Right now, the best performance cars on the road are not electric. The i8 is a good development, Porsche's new 918 spyder is a good development, the Mercedes SLS electric drive is a good development, but if they don't go anywhere, as the original roadster fades into obscurity, the perception of the capabilities of EVs will change. The model S has some pretty solid numbers, but it is still a big heavy car. Since the ultimate goal is to replace *all* fossil fuel vehicles, we don't want people to think that to get a nimble little sports car you need an ICE. A new roadster, designed from the ground up to be quick and handle extremely well, while still be usable and reasonably priced (for a sports car) will continue to remind people that EVs are great.

The truck needs to be practical, affordable, rugged, and "manly". It needs to literally replace trucks on the road. The roadster is more about showing that EVs can do all the things an ICE can do. The truck is about actually doing them.

The question is when each of these needs to be brought to market, and when Tesla can do it. That is an interesting question that depends on what happens with the Gen III and with other car manufacturers.

I think you're onto something particularly important Reykjavik - the ability for Tesla to be developing and delivering 2+ projects at a time. There are too many vehicle segments for Tesla to get to each one, one at a time. I am entirely fine with them doing one at a time right now to get to Model X, but one of the things I'd like to see after Model X is delivered is the company having the resources and the ability to be working on two advances at the same time - maybe 1 vehicle for the Gen 3 platform alongside of the first vehicle for the truck platform (maybe slightly offset in time, but I would much rather see truck work begin before delivery of Gen 3).

I believe that this starts becoming the next constraint on Tesla's growth and on their ability to lead electrification of the transportation industry.

 

[stopcrazypp]

If their profit after overhead is high enough they might be able to do that. Right now they need to very carefully controlled R&D spending in order to still report profitable quarters, which is why they can only focus on developing one thing at a time.

 

[RobStark]

If their profit after overhead is high enough they might be able to do that. Right now they need to very carefully controlled R&D spending in order to still report profitable quarters, which is why they can only focus on developing one thing at a time.

Elon has said on more than one occasion he does not care about short term profits.

Tesla has a no dividend policy in the foreseeable future anyway.

The twin goals of maximizing long term profits and the electrification of ground transportation align.

If short term investors sell like crazy after disappointing profit numbers in a quarter or two but with gains in sales and market share then it is a great opportunity for long term investors to buy.

Let the Tesla haters have a couple of quarters to celebrate no profits on Tesla's balance sheets.

He who laughs last laughs best.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Elon has said on more than one occasion he does not care about short term profits.

Well, he had made a lot of promises about profitable quarters and in order to meet his promises that's what Tesla has to do (and is doing from what I'm seeing).