Time to jump in!!! Please excuse the huge post!!!
Battery Sizes
Some people say there will be no Gen3-40. I personally believe there is no “floor” below which Tesla won’t go…
if it accelerates removal of gasoline-burning cars from the planet. If Tesla can
profitably sell a Gen3-40, they will. Here’s how it might work:
Tesla was selling the 85kWh battery in 2012, along with the 40kWh in the same form factor. (I doubt the 40 was a loss leader) I understand the Model S-40 still had 60kWh of batteries in the pack, but was using software to limit the capacity, resulted in wasted battery material (which I’ve never understood, given the production constraint, but there it is). I’m going to assume for the Gen3 that Tesla no longer does this; a lot of packs will be made with the smallest capacity, and that would be a lot of wasted battery material. Let’s assume that the 40kWh battery only needs half the number of batteries as the 85kWh battery, though they’re still evenly spread throughout the Gen3’s smaller form factor to aid handling and fire resistance. My thinking assumes that Tesla squeezes 85kWh of
2017 batteries into the smaller form factor – in fact, whatever dimension can hold 85kWh of 2017 batteries may influence the Gen3’s pack size.
Let’s assume Tesla will follow their current strategy and offer a range of capacities that fit into the same pack size; lower capacities don’t use all of the space, and weigh less. I’ll also assume that Tesla will stick to the capacities we know today so that in these pioneering times, where for most people, “data” is pretty thin on the ground about how one electric car compares against each another, easier comparisons can be made about how far Gen3 can go on a certain battery capacity vs. the Model S, which will have been on the road for 5 years. Thus… 85, 60 and 40.
It’s been said in many presentations that battery density improves by about 7.5% per year. By the time 2017 rolls around, energy density will have improved by 5 years’ worth, or 1.075*1.075*1.075*1.075*1.075 = 1.436. In 2017, the battery holding 85kWh will fit into a space that is 1/1.436 of the current Model S battery volume, which is approximately 2.13m x 1.22m x 0.15m or 0.38 cubic meters. Gen3 battery will fit 85kWh into 0.27 cubic meters.
Power Electronics
The 2017 Gen3 will use an all-new generation of power electronics, and basically convert energy back and forth more efficiently than the 2012-vintage Model S does now. Consider what JB Straubel had to say here
JB Straubel | Energy@Stanford SLAC 2013 - YouTube
* Let’s assume the Gen3 provides a given amount of torque using only 95% of the energy the Model S requires to provide that torque.
* Let’s assume the Gen3 recharges the battery 5% better during braking.
* Let’s assume the Gen3 doesn't heat its cables up as much during charging. I haven’t tried Supercharging on a hot summer day yet, but if you’ve ever touched an HPWC cable while it’s charging at 80A… woah, that heat ain’t good… it’s wasted energy.
* Let’s assume that Vampire Drain will be smaller than it is today, though that doesn't make too much difference.
Car Size & Aerodynamics
A major factor affecting the Gen3 car is its physically smaller size. Consider the ramifications –
Let’s assume it has the same mass as BMW’s 320i – about 3275lbs. (Putting it very unscientifically, the lightness of aluminium is offset by the weight of an EV battery.) This is vs. 4633lbs for the Model S-85, so the Gen3 is only pushing 71% as much mass down the road.
Also, being physically smaller means it will have a lower coefficient of drag. The Model S is the most aerodynamic production car on the road today, with Cd of 0.24 per manufacturer’s claim
and independent measurement. Can they get the Gen3 down to 0.23? Aerodynamics will continue to play a crucial role for the Gen3. If you are only driving around town, you rarely move over 45mph and don’t benefit from aerodynamics too much; you’re also more likely to be able to charge here and there, and not have to worry about a flat battery or think too much about Tesla’s 200-mile range claims. However, when people drive more miles, it's often at over 50mph (on expressways, freeways etc.), and aerodynamics will have a major impact in extending range. The option to replace side mirrors with cameras sought by Tesla in order to get the advertised range shows you how important aerodynamics is for getting extra miles (i.e. if you use the conventional mirrors, you get 99% of the advertised range).
Tires
Next point to consider will be tires… the Model S is a big heavy performance car and starts out with 275/25ZR22 tires. The Gen3 base model will have perhaps the same as the base BMW 320i, which I believe is 225/50VR17 tires – so, a lot less rolling resistance, and somewhat improved aerodynamics. Tesla will likely be lobbying Dunlop, Pirelli etc. to come up with a special tire for their needs – ultra-low rolling resistance – for the OEM parts.
Efficiency & Driving Range
So with all those differences to take into account (none of which we really know the hard data on, I concede), let’s consider what they could mean for the range of the Gen3. Tesla have said 200 miles, but they won’t be saying “a 200 mile range no matter what you do” – they’ll say “200 mile range
if you drive economically”. Over 11,500 miles, my P85 appears to get three miles/kWh with an even balance of all driving styles and equal city+highway top speed situations. (my lowest ever highway trip was actually 241Wh/mile @ 55mph) With all the factors I’ve mentioned, the Gen3 should average four miles per kWh over all styles of driving. The question is, can it achieve
five miles per kWh during economical driving? (the kind where you drive on level ground at 55mph etc. etc.) At that efficiency, a 40kWh battery could take you 200 miles - perfect for people who drive around town and can charge every day or two -
and 200 is the magic number that meets Elon Musk’s projections regarding range. (my math is approximate… leaving out anti-bricking buffer amounts inside the battery, which will be hard to predict on the new technology etc.)
Prices
The Gen3 won't make actual profit for a long time, given the five-billion-dollar construction of the Gigafactory to have to pay off first! However, you can still create a per-car profit margin in your calculations if you put the Gigafactory construction cost to one side. If Tesla sells a Gen3-40 for $35,000+sales tax with a profit margin of 15%, that means $5,250 profit and $29,750 costs. Using $180/kWh as their battery cost (see other threads on this forum), the battery would cost $7,200, and the base car without battery would cost $22,550. With those figures, the three battery size versions would cost thus:
40kWh = $35,000+sales tax
60kWh = $39,235+sales tax
85kWh = $44,529+sales tax
Tesla have shown that they’re serious about speeding up the transition away from gasoline cars. If the end-user cost of a Gen3-40 is lower… more people will stop using gasoline cars, so Tesla will do it - even if it’s not an obvious profit center
. (of course we expect there to be deposits+waiting list, etc. which is good for the economics of the company)
Each of the three batteries listed will deliver more current to the motor, with more performance & top speed potential – similar to how the Model S works. I project Tesla will cap the 2017 Gen3 at 85kWh.
Tesla will keep the Model S and X at the top of the model range by exclusively offering them with higher capacities that will be available by then. Tesla will have also re-engineered Model S 60 and 85kWh batteries to use the 2017-grade denser cells and lower mass – extending performance and range in those cars, and perhaps allowing higher Supercharging wattages, but continuing with the original size. I project we see the beginning of all this in mid-November 2014 when Tesla announces a 110kWh battery for the top-of-the-range Model S/X during Q3 ER.
Just to show the math, here is a progression of capacity that fits into the same volume with a 7.5% improvement each year:
| 2012 | 85.0 |
| 2013 | 91.4 |
| 2014 | 98.2 |
| 2015 | 105.6 |
| 2016 | 113.5 |
| 2017 | 122.0 |
| 2018 | 131.2 |
| 2019 | 141.0 |
| 2020 | 151.6 |
| 2021 | 163.0 |
| 2022 | 175.2 |
If Tesla ends up accelerating this increase due to whatever goes on inside the Gigafactory, things will be even better.
Options
Here are some thoughts on options presented for Gen3:
* Batteries – 40, 60 and 85. Economical-style driving ranges would be 200, 275 and 350 miles.
* Hi-speed Computer Pack, perhaps exclusive to the Tech Package – a higher-speed computer back-end that allows for smoother scrolling and quicker responses to the touch. Don’t forget that five years will have passed since they locked the (somewhat sluggish) Tegra circuitry into the Model S. By 2017, this would also be available in the Model S and X (or even perhaps standard there), but you don’t get it in Gen3 if you don’t order the Tech Package. Perhaps the slower-speed computer package (when
not ordering Tech Package) would only supply a subset of the car’s overall feature set, but there’d be more features and speed/smoothness with the newer, faster one. Perhaps the faster one is required to run the Autopilot, for example. To keep manufacturing and servicing simple, the faster computer system would be a drop-in replacement for the slower one.
* Autopilot, whatever it turns out to be – may be standard on Model X/S by 2017, may be only available in the Tech Package… may be something they reserve for Model X/S in any case, and not available at all on Gen3. Autopilot is likely a pretty heavy-duty computer power application, and I imagine it’ll be upgraded over time and will require even faster processing circuitry (in addition to more/improved sensor hardware, etc.), so by 2017, the Autopilot option on Gen3 may be “second generation.”
* Retracting door handles – these may be redesigned on the base model car to make them non-moving (and cheaper).
* All-Wheel-Drive – I think Tesla will want every car to be AWD-capable, but the cost of two motors keeps the price up, so they will leave it as a Gen3 option. (Subaru on the other hand, makes you pay even if you don’t want it). It does not affect range particularly, since the power used by two motors for a given amount of acceleration is the same as the power used by one motor. You just order it if you want better traction and don’t need the trunk space.
* Gen3 is a “platform,” just like Gen2, as JB Straubel pointed out in 2013.
JB Straubel | Energy@Stanford SLAC 2013 - YouTube We shouldn’t be surprised to see a 4-door sedan/saloon in addition to a 2-door coupe and/or a CAV/CUV-type vehicle – all hatchbacks for aerodynamic reasons. Falcon doors may remain a Gen2 high-end option only, even perhaps simply due to form factor issues. Roll-out schedule for variants would be hard to speculate on, and Gen3 could just begin with a 320i-sized sedan, to start things simply (not to mention it would simplify manufacturing).
* There will be a much larger array of external paint colours and interior colours than we see today. (as there will be on Gen2 by 2017)
* A conventional sunroof that allows you to cover it up and mask 100% of UV rays will be an option. (yay!)
* Tasteful, aerodynamic wheels (as opposed to “traditional” wheels that don’t particularly take it into consideration) will be the basic type. There will be a much larger array of OEM wheels available - as owners seek to customize and individualize their Teslas. Maybe as many wheels as BMW!!! (ok, maybe not
that many)
* The internet access and OS updates will continue as a Tesla brand feature. However, there will be optional “faster” internet access, as long as you pay for it. (This may become available on Gen2 before 2017.) The car purchase process may include options to sign up for internet access from one or more carriers, so it has access on the day you get the car. Perhaps Tesla will be able to negotiate a cheap deal with a carrier, enabling them to pledge free 3G service forever (as long as 3G technology is still in use - didn’t they close down PCS 2G recently?) – having said that, the data bill could get pretty hefty for 500,000 new cars entering service every year, so, maybe not.
* The up-front payment for Supercharger access may fall to $1,000. This sort of money is gravy for Tesla, since by 2017 there will be a lot of Superchargers around (not to mention developments enabled by the patent giveaway) It’s possible Tesla will make access to Superchargers free for all new Gen2 buyers going forwards, but keep it as a paid option for Gen3 buyers. (I project Gen3 will outsell Gen2 by 10 to 1.)
* The car won’t be an obvious 5-seater, it's more of a 4-seater. Thus, the rear seat may have a bench-type basic form factor,
or an optional center situation like armrests, storage etc..
* Tesla will sell factory child seats as an option.
* Performance version - I’m not actually convinced Tesla will do a performance invertor. Less range, more speed, opt-in. P85 will be ~ $49,000. I’m also not projecting they will bring any “long range performance” option – an invertor/motor cooling system for track use – into production. The bottom-of-the-range Tesla car will always be aimed at energy efficiency. However, if the Gen2 platform has had something made available by then, perhaps it will eventually be made available in the Gen3 too. Also, if there some "energy-efficiency angle" could be found for the invertor/motor cooling system, where e.g. it increases range… then of course, they would put it in.
* I don’t think there will be height-adjustable suspension option
unless they do it in a CAV/SUV-type of variant to address the Land Rover/Jeep/agricultural off-road market. (incidentally, I saw an electric Land Rover reviewed on Fifth Gear recently, and saw that it may be quite compelling, since in addition to its awesome torque control and AWD ability, it can drive through deep water without needing air/snorkel etc.)
* There won’t be a rear-seat option… car is too small.
* The basic servicing won’t be what it is for Model S today. I don’t believe they will do the “valet” style loaner car for free – that’ll be a paid option.
* 80A HPWC and dual chargers will still be an option, but they’ll be cheaper. Whay will be available by 2017 is home DC charging, as long as you have a Tesla Home Battery. Better than the AC charging which is currently 92% efficient.
