Gen III - summary

[igotzzoom]

Okay...Bear with me here...I think some people don't care about 5 or 6-second 0-60 times, simply because they've never experienced them. I've been in a lot of sub 5-second cars. For me, it's a fun, but not transformational experience. The first time I was in a car that did 0-60 in less than 6 seconds, it was a "WOW!!" experience.

I'm willing to bet that a lot of Prius and 4-cyl Camry buyers have never experienced that feeling, and are content with the 8-10 second 0-60 time of their cars, simply because they were more interested in the 30-40+ mpg that they could get. If you took out some Prius buyers on a test drive of a Gen-III, and punched it getting on the on-ramp, and tell them it still costs less to drive and operate than their Prius, I think a lot of them would be sold then and there. Sure, a lot of them would be "Oh, I never drive that fast, I'll never use all that power." But for some, they'd be "Man, to think I've sacrificed the driving experience all these years for efficiency. Now I can have both."

Make sense?

 

[Red Sage]

stopcrazypp: Dude. C'mon. The BMW 760Li has a current base price of $141,200 -- more than four times as much as a BMW 320i. The Tesla Model S P85+ has a 4.4 second 0-60 time and costs $93,400. You could buy one of those, plus a GIII, and still have change left over for a down-payment on a BMW 320i lease. You really think it's even remotely fair to test the base Model S against a vehicle that costs twice as much?

I believe the base GIII will have performance to match or surpass the BMW 335i. Specifically because that is a higher priced car -- but it doesn't cost twice as much as a GIII. The most expensive version of the 3-Series comes in at $49,900 -- the BMW ActiveHybrid 3 -- that's 43% more than a base GIII. If the Tesla Model S P85+ can defeat a BMW 760Li that costs fully 51% more... I don't see any reason not to expect the same from a GIII when it comes to a BMW 335i, which would currently enjoy at least a 24% price advantage.

Oh, but wait... That brings me to another point. Price. Since BMW still uses those archaic 'independent franchised dealerships' their MSRP is all out of whack due to the toll fee that the middleman charges. In effect, the sticker price is inflated -- not because of performance -- but because of the dealerships taking their cut. Without a dealership, if BMW were able to sell direct, who's to say they wouldn't have offered the BMW 335i xDrive Gran Turismo at $36,850 instead of $46,850?

You mentioned the performance of a Tesla Model S 60, with a base price of $69,900. Please note that launch can be managed by anyone with a heavy right foot and opposable thumbs. Not so, the published 0-60 times for BMWs, which are managed by 'professional drivers on a closed course'. In the real world, the BMW would get positively ~*smoked*~ by even the lowly Model S 60.

- - - Updated - - -

If you took out some Prius buyers on a test drive of a Gen-III, and punched it getting on the on-ramp, and tell them it still costs less to drive and operate than their Prius, I think a lot of them would be sold then and there. Sure, a lot of them would be "Oh, I never drive that fast, I'll never use all that power." But for some, they'd be "Man, to think I've sacrificed the driving experience all these years for efficiency. Now I can have both."

Make sense?

Absolutely makes PERFECT sense! Exactly what I've been attempting to convey here. This is what happened when people have test driven the Tesla Model S when they were shopping for something else -- or so they thought. ;-)

 

[stopcrazypp]

stopcrazypp: Dude. C'mon. The BMW 760Li has a current base price of $141,200 -- more than four times as much as a BMW 320i...If the Tesla Model S P85+ can defeat a BMW 760Li that costs fully 51% more... I don't see any reason not to expect the same from a GIII when it comes to a BMW 335i, which would currently enjoy at least a 24% price advantage.

I just threw those numbers in there for reference. The main point is that the base model to base model advertised acceleration is about the same for both the Model S and similar competitors and there's no reason to expect different for the Gen 3. Also for peak performance, most people compare the P85+ to the M5.

My secondary point is that US buyers seem to expect their larger more expensive cars (which are "higher up" in the line-up) to be more powerful and faster than smaller ones. They don't seem to like cheaper cars in the line-up (of the same type; exceptions may be coupes vs sedans) embarrassing them off the line or during overtaking. And manufacturers seem to be willing to cater to this (for example the M3 not surpassing the M5, or the Boxster not surpassing the 911).

You mentioned the performance of a Tesla Model S 60, with a base price of $69,900. Please note that launch can be managed by anyone with a heavy right foot and opposable thumbs. Not so, the published 0-60 times for BMWs, which are managed by 'professional drivers on a closed course'. In the real world, the BMW would get positively ~*smoked*~ by even the lowly Model S 60.

I'm just going by the advertised numbers vs advertised numbers, in terms of their Gen3 target. Whether or not the owners can manage it in the real world seems to be unrelated to this.

 

[physicsfita]

And we already know that the 11,000 plus Prius liftback buyers aren't going to ignore a car that's cheaper to run and has comparable or superior cargo space with a much superior 7s 0 to 60.

As a very happy owner of a 2nd generation Prius (7 years/280,000 mi, and it still runs like a dream!), I wholeheartedly agree. I just worked out that the gas savings has recently paid for the car versus my old one. My motivations for looking at the Gen III are that it should pay for itself versus my current Prius, since fuel costs will be at most about 1/3 what I'm paying now (not counting possible future workplace charging and supercharging for my frequent road trips), with hopefully much lower maintenance and much longer lifetime (I drive my cars until they're shot), and the well-to-wheels emissions would be about the same or a little better than my Prius, even with Michigan's coal-heavy grid.

While I know my mileage is a little higher than average, this reasoning seems to resonate with other Prius owners I know.

 

[David_Cary]

Don't count me as someone who has never experienced a quick car. (I realize I wasn't singled out).

I drive a Leaf with a 9s 0-60. It feels pretty quick around town and takes no effort to accelerate faster than 99% of other drivers 0-40 (I drive very few 60 mph roads with stop signs or lights).

The car I've owned the longest was a Nissan 300TT so called stage IV - downpipe, exhaust, intake, chip. Usually quoted as 450hp. My next car was a 545 - a tick slower but much smoother....

I won't say I grew up but something like that.

You know what costs a heck of a lot with 0-60 in 5 secs - tires. Compare i3 tires to P85. The Leaf has a pretty middle of the road tire. I'd be perfectly happy for the gen3 to have Leaf tire size. The tires can kill the overall value. Speed is never free. Darn close in an EV but certainly not free.

And just to disagree on another point. Dealers make very little money on new car sales. There is no way there is $10k in profit for the dealer for a $46k BMW.

 

[HHHH]

Don't count me as someone who has never experienced a quick car. (I realize I wasn't singled out).

I drive a Leaf with a 9s 0-60. It feels pretty quick around town and takes no effort to accelerate faster than 99% of other drivers 0-40 (I drive very few 60 mph roads with stop signs or lights).

The car I've owned the longest was a Nissan 300TT so called stage IV - downpipe, exhaust, intake, chip. Usually quoted as 450hp. My next car was a 545 - a tick slower but much smoother....

I won't say I grew up but something like that.

You know what costs a heck of a lot with 0-60 in 5 secs - tires. Compare i3 tires to P85. The Leaf has a pretty middle of the road tire. I'd be perfectly happy for the gen3 to have Leaf tire size. The tires can kill the overall value. Speed is never free. Darn close in an EV but certainly not free.

And just to disagree on another point. Dealers make very little money on new car sales. There is no way there is $10k in profit for the dealer for a $46k BMW.

David,

Lots of great points, and I agree with most of them, however, just a small correction dealer markups. As someone who operated an automotive dealership at the highest managerial level for 7 years, I can tell you it is quite possible and not as scarce as you might think to make $10k on a $45-50k car. BMW dealers have an average of about $4k markup on a $46k MSRP car, plus another $1k for holdback and incentives (sometimes more). There's $5k right there, plus the value they quote on your trade vs market value, which is another $2k, then add in interest rate markup $2k, and warranty / maintenance profit margins which are sold in the finance department = $10k. The dealer pricing model is convoluted and there's so many ways for them to make money it'll make your head spin...

 

[K5ING]

Gen III car to be called the Model 3.

 

[Grendal]

Argh! Even Tesla themselves aren't helping. Is it a Model 3 or a Model III? Or both?

 

[palmer_md]

Argh! Even Tesla themselves aren't helping. Is it a Model 3 or a Model III? Or both?

Everything on Tesla's twitter and Facebook has the number 3 not III (parts contributed by Tesla, not comments and other responses).

 

[stopcrazypp]

Everything on Tesla's twitter and Facebook has the number 3 not III (parts contributed by Tesla, not comments and other responses).

But the article with a direct quote from Elon say's the logo will be a 3 with 3 bars.

 

[sjoshuaj]

perhaps it will be Model 3 & Model 4

 

[palmer_md]

But the article with a direct quote from Elon say's the logo will be a 3 with 3 bars.

First, I've seen too many journalists misquote things to assume that Elon actually said it. Second, as noted in the post above, he could have been referring to an imaginary ad campaign using three horizontal bars, and not the III symbol. Also, the comment does come after the same joke he's told in the past about Ford killing sex, so it could just be a continuation on the joke. Perhaps it will be the Model III, but from what I've seen in written form from Tesla directly, it is Model 3.

 

[ChrisP]

Following the recent discussion here on performance/0-60 times, the article on Model 3 in autoexpress mentions that Musk also confirmed that he expected the new car to have a realistic range of over 200 miles with strong performance, like the Model S

So we are looking at 0-60 times possibly around 6 seconds (as the MS 60kWh) to maybe around 4 seconds for a performance version (if available). I like that!

***

Concerning as well the future range of Tesla vehicle discussed her, the same article mentioned that the Roadster will get an increase of range from 244 miles to 400 miles. That is an increase in 64% of range in 7 years (assuming it will be available in 2015)

Let’s assume the same gain in range for the model S (64% in 7 years since production) then we would get a 435 miles range in 2019. So a Model 3 with a range of over 300 miles or higher as an option is definitely a possibility. I like that as well ​

 

[AnOutsider]

View attachment 53829


perhaps it will be Model 3 & Model 4

Thanks for doing that. The 3 is exactly what I was picturing

 

[xhawk101]

Thanks for doing that. The 3 is exactly what I was picturing

SEXY!

 

[NigelM]

View attachment 53829


perhaps it will be Model 3 & Model 4

Then the X is Model Ten?

 

[dalalsid]

Then the X is Model Ten?

10 is just 2 in binary

 

[MartinAustin]

I was projecting earlier that the base Model 3 will be slower than the base Model S. This would probably be 6.0 since the S60 does 5.9.

However since Elon's interview, I am now in agreement with Red Sage that it will probably be faster than 6.0 on the base model... 5.5?

And all bets are off for the performance version, which there will now no doubt be.

 

[Red Sage]

I think it will be Tesla Model ☰:
View attachment 54560

 

[DaveT]

I think it will be Tesla Model ☰

I think "☰" is way too difficult to type. IMO will likely be "Model 3" or "Model III".