I’m sorry, I am not a native english speaker and don’t understand your comment. I meant geographical regions far away from California.
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It was a joke, Nico. I, for example, took it to mean it was a long way from Alaska.....
Stretch2727
Engineer and Car Nut
If the inside EV's numbers are correct the % of people reporting on the spread sheet has gone from approx 6% in Dec to maybe less than 4% now. Makes sense as the deliveries have shifted from current owners to people new to Tesla.
My guesstimate for Model 3 is 6500 delivered for March and 11,000 for the quarter.
My guesstimate for Model 3 is 6500 delivered for March and 11,000 for the quarter.
Good question. The disruption caused by spacex cannot be understated. Just ask ULA, China and Russia. Tesla is causing a similar disruption. Spacex is private, Tesla public. Hard to stop Spacex, easier to stop Tesla. Attack market cap. Short every share that is available to short, and of course amplify the FUD. If Spacex were public the attacks would be relentless.
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sundaymorning
Active Member
I posted this in other threads but just in case there are some newbies out there who aren’t familiar with Tesla’s cash position and spending for 2018. I recommend reading this over and processing the information for yourself. You can research this info within Tesla’s last 2 Q reports and CC.
As of January 2018 Tesla still has $3.4 billion in cash. 50% of that capital is expected to be spent on expanding the GF, while much of the other 50% will be spent on rolling out Supercharger networks, new service/ sales centers, Semi truck/ Model Y R&D, Tile roof/ solar, etc. If Tesla spends every dime they have without raising further capital, then the $3.4 Billion they started with this year will take them into 3rd Q 2018, right about the time where M3 ramp hits a steady rate of 5,000/ week to make them cash flow positive. So no, Tesla isn’t going to run out of cash anytime soon. Their cash position remains to be healthy, and my assumption is that they will raise capital between 2nd and 3rd Q to be comfortable (so they won’t be cutting it too close).
Elon has had around 40 rounds of capital raises between his venture at X.com/ PayPal, SpaceX and Tesla. He is 40 out of 40 for those capital raises which converts to an impressive 100% success rate in capital raises. He has mentioned to shorts before that you don’t want to bet against those odds, and yet the shorts ignore his warning every time (to their detriment). They are here again to spread FUD because they understand that their fortunes are ONE capital raise away from being decimated (talk about playing Russian Roulette), arguably that ONE capital raise isn’t even necessary for Tesla to sustain operations.
If Tesla would just stop expanding, then their cash position will be in a much healthier place; however, Tesla is a beast and Elon understands he has leverage over the capital market. He can raise capital at will and has determined that he wants his company to grow in ludicrous mode. Which is why so many members here are citing the 50% YOY revenue in the billions. Right now no other company grows like this, it’s indeed profoundly breathtaking. Take for example the 500,000 reservation holders that deposited for the M3, at an ASP of $42,000 would mean $21 billion in revenues.
As of January 2018 Tesla still has $3.4 billion in cash. 50% of that capital is expected to be spent on expanding the GF, while much of the other 50% will be spent on rolling out Supercharger networks, new service/ sales centers, Semi truck/ Model Y R&D, Tile roof/ solar, etc. If Tesla spends every dime they have without raising further capital, then the $3.4 Billion they started with this year will take them into 3rd Q 2018, right about the time where M3 ramp hits a steady rate of 5,000/ week to make them cash flow positive. So no, Tesla isn’t going to run out of cash anytime soon. Their cash position remains to be healthy, and my assumption is that they will raise capital between 2nd and 3rd Q to be comfortable (so they won’t be cutting it too close).
Elon has had around 40 rounds of capital raises between his venture at X.com/ PayPal, SpaceX and Tesla. He is 40 out of 40 for those capital raises which converts to an impressive 100% success rate in capital raises. He has mentioned to shorts before that you don’t want to bet against those odds, and yet the shorts ignore his warning every time (to their detriment). They are here again to spread FUD because they understand that their fortunes are ONE capital raise away from being decimated (talk about playing Russian Roulette), arguably that ONE capital raise isn’t even necessary for Tesla to sustain operations.
If Tesla would just stop expanding, then their cash position will be in a much healthier place; however, Tesla is a beast and Elon understands he has leverage over the capital market. He can raise capital at will and has determined that he wants his company to grow in ludicrous mode. Which is why so many members here are citing the 50% YOY revenue in the billions. Right now no other company grows like this, it’s indeed profoundly breathtaking. Take for example the 500,000 reservation holders that deposited for the M3, at an ASP of $42,000 would mean $21 billion in revenues.
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but again doesn't this rely on two main assumptions?
1) they will be at 5k M3 a week by Q3 2018
2) If they dont capital markets will still be open to them (not even considering possible macro level events)
sundaymorning
Active Member
Yes it does, the counter argument is that if the ramp isn’t going as planned (5,000 by 3rd Q) then Deepak would know to warn Tesla to slow down it’s dveleopment in Semi/Roadster Model Y R&D, GF investments, stop Supercharger expansion, no new store fronts or Service centers, etc.
That $3.4 billion in cash provides a very nice cushion when you don’t expand. And again, if Tesla stops expanding, then they would already have been profitable, so in the end, it’s a catch 22 for shorts. It’s checkmate both ways regardless whether Tesla expands or not. The M3 line at 2,500/ week without further expansion would be enough to keep profits rolling in. The 5,000/ week number enables them to expand at 50% YOY. Make no mistake about it.
I would highly suggest going and sitting in a Model 3 before making any large investment decisions.
Of course if you haven’t driven an S or X then you probably shouldn’t be investing either.
Personally I think they will have zero issues selling hundreds of thousands on a WW basis. The interior materials are high quality and everything about it basically says “why stay in the 20th century with Audi, BMW or Mercedes?”
If Tesla can successfully ramp production and delivery of the 3 then execution risk of the Y drops substantially and the valuation heads north.
Of course if you haven’t driven an S or X then you probably shouldn’t be investing either.
Personally I think they will have zero issues selling hundreds of thousands on a WW basis. The interior materials are high quality and everything about it basically says “why stay in the 20th century with Audi, BMW or Mercedes?”
If Tesla can successfully ramp production and delivery of the 3 then execution risk of the Y drops substantially and the valuation heads north.
You are right, percentage reporting has gone down apparently. Although pretty sure it was still previous/current owners who received cars in Jan, Feb.
Edit: Actually the reporting distinction seems more likely to reflect those who ordered cars by waiting inline being represented in December deliveries versus a mix of in-store and online orders represented in jan/feb/march deliveries. I expect the reporting frequency for March to be very similar to Jan/feb
~5%
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K_Dizzle
Member
Canadians stood in line as well, hopefully this improves the reporting rates. I know I did. BTW, I know a friend who just configured in Toronto and didn’t report it to the spread sheet. Is it kosher to do it on his behalf?
This is so true. Always follow the motivation....or the money if you prefer.
The main promoters of FUD about Tesla are motivated by allegiances to old ways of thinking. The continuation of an old oil based transportation system. And of course fear and doubt sells.
I am motivated to have my grand kids have air to breath and oceans to swim in. In my own small way I try and act with those motivation's at heart.
I do wonder how the Murdoch's and Koch brothers sleep at night.
K_Dizzle
Member
electricity
Member
Quick question, why doesn't Tesla open their supercharger investments and sales/service locations to third parties and avoid those costs ? What are the positives and negatives about that at this point ? I understand that a few years ago nobody believed in the Tesla sales, but today ? I 'm sure many third parties would love to profit from Tesla owners no ?
OK weekend OT
What SpaceX tech is Model Y gonna use?
Discuss a lot so that the mods move it to another thread
Reusable 1st stage booster.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
OK weekend OT
What SpaceX tech is Model Y gonna use?
Discuss a lot so that the mods move it to another thread
I think it's more production related than something on the vehicle.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
I agree, I think the M3 will give them the flexibility to only borrow on their terms wen the interest rates are good
Words of HABIT
Active Member
Fremont, CA, USA to Vancouver, Canada - 967 Miles
Fremont CA, USA to Mexico City, Mexico - 2,287 Miles
Fremont, CA, USA to Toronto, Canada - 2,653 Miles
Fremont, CA, USA to Bacelo, Guatemala - 3,075 Miles
Fremont, CA, USA to New York City, New York, USA - 3,109 Miles.
Glad I don't live in New York City, now that would really be remote.
sundaymorning
Active Member
Regarding service: Momentarily Tesla cannot trust 3rd parties to service their cars without some setback. They need technicians who are well versed and trained in dealing with EVs, which means many parts and components would involve a licensed electrician. For instance, my master charger needed replacement, instead of swapping out specific parts that would involve the expertise of an electrician plus a $100 worth of parts, Tesla opted to replace the entire component, which cost $3,000 to ensure my safety. Could Tesla trust a 3rd party to do this? A third party would likely swap out the $100 part and charge the customer $3,000.
Regarding supercharger: many EVs built today cannot handle the voltage at Tesla superchargers, their batteries will simply burn out.
Regarding Sales: Dealers will anti-sell EVs when a customer steps through the door. It’s more profitable for dealers to sell ICE, it benefits their service centers a lot more.
The bottom line is that despite the horrendous cost of expansion, Tesla is footing the bill in order to ensure safety for the consumer while protecting the Tesla brand. Although the costs may be high initially; however, as more EVs are sold and more Model S/X warranties expire, those service centers will eventually become profitable, much in the way that the dealers service centers are a cash cow. My warranty will expire this year, I’ll happily contribute out of pocket for Tesla to service my car. They deserve it, they have put everything on the line for this. I can’t say the same for dealers. Loyalty goes a long way with Tesla owners.
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