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Hangout w/CapitalOppressor
Here’s the info for tomorrow’s March 23rd google+ hangout w/CapitalOppressor
Special Guest: CapitalOppressor
Background: Tomorrow’s google+ hangout will feature special guest, CapitalOppressor. CapOp (as he's known by some on TMC) has contributed some of the most informative posts on TMC and has been an important contributor in the community. We get a special opportunity to hear his latest thoughts on Tesla's gigafactory, battery cost improvements, expansion plans and other topics. We'll also be asking him how he got interested in Tesla and made his first TSLA investment. For reference, here's a few of CapOp's posts:
Model S Battery Pack - Cost Per kWh Estimate
Amazing Core Tesla Battery IP - 18650 Cell
What time: March 23rd at 6:30pm Pacific Time (9:30 Eastern Time). It will last about an hour.
Google+ hangout specifics:
Everybody is invited to join the hangout but since the hangout participants is limited to 10 people, the first 6 people after CapitalOppressor and DaveT will be allowed to be participants. We’ll leave 2 slots open for other people to jump in and out with questions if they have any. The format of the night will roughly be DaveT introducing and interviewing CapitalOppressor for the first 20 minutes or so and then opening up the time for questions from the participants and others. For those unable to make it we are planning to keep the recorded video up for later viewing.
Here's the link to the Google+ Hangout event page:
TSLA investment hangout w/CapitalOppressor
Here’s the info for tomorrow’s March 23rd google+ hangout w/CapitalOppressor
Special Guest: CapitalOppressor
Background: Tomorrow’s google+ hangout will feature special guest, CapitalOppressor. CapOp (as he's known by some on TMC) has contributed some of the most informative posts on TMC and has been an important contributor in the community. We get a special opportunity to hear his latest thoughts on Tesla's gigafactory, battery cost improvements, expansion plans and other topics. We'll also be asking him how he got interested in Tesla and made his first TSLA investment. For reference, here's a few of CapOp's posts:
Model S Battery Pack - Cost Per kWh Estimate
Amazing Core Tesla Battery IP - 18650 Cell
What time: March 23rd at 6:30pm Pacific Time (9:30 Eastern Time). It will last about an hour.
Google+ hangout specifics:
Everybody is invited to join the hangout but since the hangout participants is limited to 10 people, the first 6 people after CapitalOppressor and DaveT will be allowed to be participants. We’ll leave 2 slots open for other people to jump in and out with questions if they have any. The format of the night will roughly be DaveT introducing and interviewing CapitalOppressor for the first 20 minutes or so and then opening up the time for questions from the participants and others. For those unable to make it we are planning to keep the recorded video up for later viewing.
Here's the link to the Google+ Hangout event page:
TSLA investment hangout w/CapitalOppressor
DaveT: Thanks again for all the 'heavy lifting' in setting these chats up. If you have not already planned to do so would you consider getting CapOp's thoughts on the premise that Gen 3 and particularly Gen 4 will capture half the total worldwide market for their segments. As you know, I have doubts that Gen 4, in particular, will not be facing some very stiff (and perhaps compelling vehicles) competition in that segment. While I believe TM has a significant protective/first disrupter 'moat' for the S/X/ and Gen 3, I doubt the other automakers of the world are going to give up 50% of any vehicle segment easily.
See y'all in about an hour.
March 23rd at 6:30pm Pacific Time (9:30 Eastern Time).
TSLA investment hangout w/CapitalOppressor
March 23rd at 6:30pm Pacific Time (9:30 Eastern Time).
TSLA investment hangout w/CapitalOppressor
StapleGun
Member
Thanks again to Dave, Cap Op and Flux for the conversation last night. I have to admit that my take away about funding the Gigafactory/Gigafactories left me less optimistic about TM and TSLA. It is not that I doubt the company will be in existence and thriving in 5, 10 and 15 years, it is that their disruptor advantage may be overcome by the shear CapEx needed to fully capitalize on that advantage before the Toyotas/BMWs etc. get involved. I may have to readjust my price targets/expectations for TSLA based on that info.
The positive news is the protective patents on the battery format.
I had to leave before it was over so I may have missed something. If time permits, I will try to watch the last part later today.
The positive news is the protective patents on the battery format.
I had to leave before it was over so I may have missed something. If time permits, I will try to watch the last part later today.
Thanks, Al. I wouldn't be too pessimistic based on our discussion -- if anything my key take-away is that Tesla will need more batteries for its world-beating products and this is an execution challenge, but one that Tesla has long planned for and is more than capable of executing on.
Additionally, I'm even more confident given the apparent Intellectual Property "lockdown" by Tesla of 18650 battery pack technology and methods, that other manufacturers will not even come close to creating viable competitive products for years to come -- until/unless they choose to license Tesla's technology. Which would be good for Tesla and its shareholders, and good for the planet.
Don't trade in your bull card just yet.
Additionally, I'm even more confident given the apparent Intellectual Property "lockdown" by Tesla of 18650 battery pack technology and methods, that other manufacturers will not even come close to creating viable competitive products for years to come -- until/unless they choose to license Tesla's technology. Which would be good for Tesla and its shareholders, and good for the planet.
Don't trade in your bull card just yet.
I was unavoidable detained and so I got on the hangout late.
I am considering writing an article on Tesla's battery moat, but it takes a lot of time to chase down all the research papers. There are a lot of misconceptions that are often bandied about in the financial and automotive press with regards to Tesla's approach. Suffice it to say that even after auto makers decide on a particular battery chemistry, they then need to decide on the design of battery pack (including a lot of testing), and then design the car around it, and then sort out mass production. As a result, we are likely to receive significant advanced warning of the moves made by other manufacturers. Especially as the car potentially moves to mass production, the ramp up is a significant event that will be well telegraphed.
I am considering writing an article on Tesla's battery moat, but it takes a lot of time to chase down all the research papers. There are a lot of misconceptions that are often bandied about in the financial and automotive press with regards to Tesla's approach. Suffice it to say that even after auto makers decide on a particular battery chemistry, they then need to decide on the design of battery pack (including a lot of testing), and then design the car around it, and then sort out mass production. As a result, we are likely to receive significant advanced warning of the moves made by other manufacturers. Especially as the car potentially moves to mass production, the ramp up is a significant event that will be well telegraphed.
My card has changed from 'raging bull' to 'bull'. I did cash out some shares at 257 and bought LEAPS but have cash on hand to buy if we drop to support level of 190s.Don't trade in your bull card just yet.
Just listened- great hangout- and many thanks to CapOp for doing this and sharing some excellent thoughts and expertise. I especially can relate to the concerns regarding scaling making similar arguments to those that too closely equate Tesla to Apple/Google/Msoft etc.
The ability to scale per $ invested is simply not in the same league. Without diminishing that point one bit though, the comparison to ICE manufacturers is what Tesla competes with. Elon-team have applied scaling per $ invested (due to extreme vertical integration and EV only design) to an industry that hasn't seen this ever (but similar in disruption to the ModelT). The Tesla model for scaling per $ invested is an order of magnitude beyond what a current ICE manufacturer can accomplish IMO (while still not approaching consumer electronic/software of course).
In short, I see 2105 as a seminal inflection year for Tesla. The confluence of 3 world markets, 2 successful models under unmatched vertical production, SC network largely completed or partial (China), Giga-Factory reveal and detailed, direct sales and support network largely implemented, and a reveal of the ModE. By the end of 2015 with all of that largely in place, I believe the question of valuation inflects relative to the market. The current valuation of $30B- compared to half of BMW $60B which induces your scaling pain, will inflect from 'does Tesla deserve to be half of BMW given scaling issues?' to 'with Tesla now in the marketplace, does BMW deserve a $60B valuation?'
At that time, assuming Tesla has those above items accomplished, they will have demonstrated unprecedented scale/$ (relative to ICE), the investor community may well be reversing the question, how does a BMW prove worthy of forward growth. Until they can demonstrate the ability (or at least the path) to a higher performance/safer/low maintenance product, without an ICE engine, direct sales to customers, free 'gas' for customer long distance for life, battery scale capacity, an overhead plan that shows ICE engineer layoffs and replace with electrical, etc. etc. Once that inflection is reached, the Tesla valuation is likely justified to be twice BMW rather than the other way around, just based on the clear path of the industry as displayed by Tesla and the questions about who has the ability to follow that path.
Might be one of those BMW ICE factories becomes the next Tesla-Euro 'for-a-song' purchases...
anyway - great discussion on the hangout; your insights and research continue to be hugely valuable and appreciated
as usual many thanks DaveT and others-
The ability to scale per $ invested is simply not in the same league. Without diminishing that point one bit though, the comparison to ICE manufacturers is what Tesla competes with. Elon-team have applied scaling per $ invested (due to extreme vertical integration and EV only design) to an industry that hasn't seen this ever (but similar in disruption to the ModelT). The Tesla model for scaling per $ invested is an order of magnitude beyond what a current ICE manufacturer can accomplish IMO (while still not approaching consumer electronic/software of course).
In short, I see 2105 as a seminal inflection year for Tesla. The confluence of 3 world markets, 2 successful models under unmatched vertical production, SC network largely completed or partial (China), Giga-Factory reveal and detailed, direct sales and support network largely implemented, and a reveal of the ModE. By the end of 2015 with all of that largely in place, I believe the question of valuation inflects relative to the market. The current valuation of $30B- compared to half of BMW $60B which induces your scaling pain, will inflect from 'does Tesla deserve to be half of BMW given scaling issues?' to 'with Tesla now in the marketplace, does BMW deserve a $60B valuation?'
At that time, assuming Tesla has those above items accomplished, they will have demonstrated unprecedented scale/$ (relative to ICE), the investor community may well be reversing the question, how does a BMW prove worthy of forward growth. Until they can demonstrate the ability (or at least the path) to a higher performance/safer/low maintenance product, without an ICE engine, direct sales to customers, free 'gas' for customer long distance for life, battery scale capacity, an overhead plan that shows ICE engineer layoffs and replace with electrical, etc. etc. Once that inflection is reached, the Tesla valuation is likely justified to be twice BMW rather than the other way around, just based on the clear path of the industry as displayed by Tesla and the questions about who has the ability to follow that path.
Might be one of those BMW ICE factories becomes the next Tesla-Euro 'for-a-song' purchases...
anyway - great discussion on the hangout; your insights and research continue to be hugely valuable and appreciated
as usual many thanks DaveT and others-
Q1 2014 TSLA hangout
We're going to be having a Google+ hangout on Wednesday, May 7, 2014 to discuss TSLA's Q1 2014 earnings.
What: TSLA Q1 earnings hangout
Time/Date: May 7, 2014 at 5:00pm Pacific time (8:00pm Eastern Time).
Google+ hangout specifics:
Everybody is invited to join the hangout. Hangout is limited to 10 participants but the rest of people can still view. For those unable to make it we are planning to keep the recorded video up for later viewing.
Here's the link to the Google+ Hangout event page:
TSLA Q1 2014 earnings hangout - May 7, 2014
We're going to be having a Google+ hangout on Wednesday, May 7, 2014 to discuss TSLA's Q1 2014 earnings.
What: TSLA Q1 earnings hangout
Time/Date: May 7, 2014 at 5:00pm Pacific time (8:00pm Eastern Time).
Google+ hangout specifics:
Everybody is invited to join the hangout. Hangout is limited to 10 participants but the rest of people can still view. For those unable to make it we are planning to keep the recorded video up for later viewing.
Here's the link to the Google+ Hangout event page:
TSLA Q1 2014 earnings hangout - May 7, 2014
Thanks for hosting DaveT.
As we were talking about Chinese trade data, the numbers came in really good:
Column 1 = actual reading, column 2 = estimate, column 3 = last month's reading.
This might even help TSLA tomorrow. The Asian markets are liking the data. US futures don't seem to care, but that doesn't mean anything at this hour.
As we were talking about Chinese trade data, the numbers came in really good:
| | 22:00 | CNY |
| Chinese Trade Balance | 18.45B | 13.90B |
| ||||||||||
| 22:00 | CNY | Chinese Exports (YoY) | 0.9% | -1.7% | -6.6% | ||||||||||||
| 22:00 | CNY | Chinese Imports (YoY) | 0.8% | -2.3% | -11.3% |
This might even help TSLA tomorrow. The Asian markets are liking the data. US futures don't seem to care, but that doesn't mean anything at this hour.
Thanks Dave!
Thanks sleepyhead. Here's hoping for a good JA Solar earnings report tomorrow morning.
Thanks sleepyhead. Here's hoping for a good JA Solar earnings report tomorrow morning.
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